Official Newcomer Speculation Discussion

Heatswave

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After the surprise last night I will adjust my predictions as follows:
In my latest predictions, I expected 4 more uniques and 4 more echoes, now that we only have the second Smash Direct for reveals (if they don't pull some completely random reveals without a direct), I will adjust this to 2 unique (excluding Isabelle) and 4 more echoes. Would get the number on the website to a round 70 + 10 echoes = 80 characters in total.

Unique

Likely:
Geno - he's obscure and technically 3rd party, but he has some things going for him, like Sakurais backup and the Mii costume
Isaac - I don't know, he's popular, he's owned by nintendo, but also from a dead series and not as popular as K.Rool, I still think we don't get more stages, which hurt his chances even more and he has no Assist Trophy or Mii Costume in the last game to boost his chances
Pokemon Rep - there is the possibility we don't get a new pokemon, which I'm not against, we also got 3 previous pokemon veterans back, but it still is the biggest franchise sales wise

Less Likely, but possible:
Bandana Dee - I really want him, more than any other unique fighter, but I don't see that much push for him outside of japan and the cuteness factor is also occupied by Isabelle which could hurt his chances
Skull Kid - I don't see it anymore, the chair theory is probably bull and the only thing he has got going for him is the mii costume and the missing assist trophy, which could just mean he will be tweaked for being a boss in spirit mode
Banjo & Kazooie - a hype last reveal, but my stage assumption hurt their chances, as does their 3rd party status, which could mean, there are too many hoops to jump through to get them in

Echo

Likely:
Dixie Kong - still think she's getting in one way or another, perhaps she gets the Isabelle treatment, but as the unique spots being as tight as it is...
Shadow - makes sense and would be well received in general if you look at recent votes
Ken - makes sense

Less Likely, but possible:
Impa - we need a Zelda newcomer and as Skull Kid doesn't seem that likely to me anymore...
Felix - if Isaac gets in

So, yeah, that's really too much unique newcomers so I have no clue, who get the last 2 spots I'm expecting to be filled... I'm more confident in the echo predictions, but we will see.
 

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I apparently can't see Master Chief happening. I mean sure Microsoft and Nintendo are on good terms now but since when has an console exclusive character ever been on another console? Never seen Mario on any playstation consoles, Kratos on any Nintendo consoles and such. Just saying.

Banjo-Kazooie at least makes sense though due to their history with Nintendo and being highly requested.
Master Chief is literally a Minecraft Switch skin, and part of the Halo Mash-Up Pack, which is exclusive to the Xbox, PC... and Switch. PlayStation doesn't get it(they won't play ball), and I don't know if other releases of Minecraft on other various systems(Steam, etc.) have it.

So yes, he has been on another console. There's kind of no denying he has a bonafide Nintendo appearance. About as much as Cloud honestly did.
 
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Master Chief is literally a Minecraft Switch skin, and part of the Halo Mash-Up Pack, which is exclusive to the Xbox, PC... and Switch. PlayStation doesn't get it(they won't play ball), and I don't know if other releases of Minecraft on other various systems(Steam, etc.) have it.

So yes, he has been on another console. There's kind of no denying he has a bonafide Nintendo appearance. About as much as Cloud honestly did.
I suppose then still I think someone like Banjo-Kazooie would be more fitting for obvious reasons.
 

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I suppose then still I think someone like Banjo-Kazooie would be more fitting for obvious reasons.
That's fair. I'm indifferent to them, but the games did nothing for me anyway. Still great games, though.

Halo impacted me way more, so... bias, nyah.
 
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I suppose then still I think someone like Banjo-Kazooie would be more fitting for obvious reasons.
I think in terms of Nintendo's history, Banjo definitely would be more fitting to see, and it would be great for the older fans who grew up with his games on the N64.

However, I think Master Chief would provoke a much greater reaction than Banjo, as like you said, he's the mascot for Microsoft itself.
So assuming if both characters were on the table, I feel MC would cause a much greater impact as he's literally an icon of video game history itself. (Not to mention one that's probably going to be pushed by Microsoft itself)
Regardless of the fact, Banjo would be great to see in Smash. It'd basically be a reunion for those characters and the fans of B&K.
If we could get a Microsoft character, I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai and his team would definitely try to get both fronts if possible.
 

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Things I took away from yesterday:

-Sakurai is basically using a combination of the Melee and Brawl strategies to bolster the roster. Melee had 6 clones and 1 semi clone, Brawl had 7 semi clones. Currently at 1 new semi clone and 4 clones/echos. Going to predict we'll get at least two more echoes and one more semi clone with Ken and Shadow being the safest for the first and Dixie being probable for the latter.

-The Mii costumes do actually kind of matter. Isabelle's F-smash is the party popper from her Mii costume. We now have 4 new characters that had full Mii costumes in Smash 4 and there will likely be more.

-Unless there's an absolutely massive Final Smash Direct that's like an hour long, we're probably getting two more, with the next coming in early October.

-Square's sudden out pouring of support is absolutely incredible. I believe Verg's statement that there will be another SE character.
 

Daedulus

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He never said anything about K. Rool as far as I'm aware.



Because every franchise represented has at least had importance to Nintendo history so far. Minecraft is extremely recent to Nintendo consoles, and Sakurai has stated he primarily chose Newcomers from the ballot, pretty sure a Minecraft rep wasn't among the higher percentages.

An AT or stage is enough recognition the Minecraft series deserves at this point in time.

Plus, Bomberman and Monster Hunter were relegated to AT despite being extremely popular within the community, I doubt Minecraft is very likely in the running for playable representation.
Yes he said stuff about krool vergeben i mean
 
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Master Chief is literally a Minecraft Switch skin, and part of the Halo Mash-Up Pack, which is exclusive to the Xbox, PC... and Switch. PlayStation doesn't get it(they won't play ball), and I don't know if other releases of Minecraft on other various systems(Steam, etc.) have it.

So yes, he has been on another console. There's kind of no denying he has a bonafide Nintendo appearance. About as much as Cloud honestly did.
True but banjo and kazooie clearly has the advantage with the ballot and that Phil Spencer already gave the thumbs up if they ask to put banjo and kazooie in the game as playable
 

Fane

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Yes he said stuff about krool vergeben i mean
He never did.

He said he got tipped that there were no new DK characters, but he found it unbelievable.

He never said that K. Rool would/wouldn't for a fact be in the game, though I do believe he said that K. Rool was probably likely. Which isn't leaking anything, it was speculation on his part there.
 

Fane

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Master Chief has abysmally low chance tbh.

Not to say he has no chance, he certainly does, but to say he has a good chance is setting yourself up for disappointment.

The best chances for new Third Party rep definitely has to be Rayman, Geno(technically new?), and Banjo Kazooie. I'd be shocked to see anyone else.
 

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True but banjo and kazooie clearly has the advantage with the ballot and that Phil Spencer already gave the thumbs up if they ask to put banjo and kazooie in the game as playable
Phil doesn't even matter much at all here. Realistically, he'd jump at the chance to promote anyone that was asked. It's PR speak. And still is.

So no real major advantage beyond the ballot, and that's entirely assuming B&K did nearly as well as many others and Master Chief did super poorly. I wouldn't put too much stock into this theory. Though I do expect B&K in the game(along with Minecraft and Halo content) overall. By that, I mean actual content, not anything specific. All 3 are just too big to ignore right now. Two huge gaming icons that will draw in crowds and one fan-favorite(well, two if you count the fact that B&K are a duo, but nyeh).
 

Captain Shades

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Honestly, if a Microsoft rep were to get in then Minecraft would be the perfect fit. It’s a game that is still getting support on all consoles except Sony, unlike the dead franchise that is Banjo at this point. It is also on 3 Nintendo systems at this point, so no rules against characters that don’t appear on Nintendo systems can work, unlike with say Master Chief.

I think all 3 are likely, but two will be DLC, which is fair. I think Minecraft would be the perfect entry franchise to Microsoft though, as it seems that many of Nintendo’s developers have experience with it, which is a factor I think people forget, and is a popular franchise of the decade. The Mojang branch also seems to be the most active branch at Microsoft, working with multiple companies, even Japanese if you include Sony and Nintendo, which really gives them a step up on the other two which only have experience serving Microsoft only for at least about 2 decades or so now, especially in the case of Rare which hasn’t done that much in years.

As for the other 3rd party DLC, then I would definitely expect Rayman to show up along with Doom Guy, as Microsoft could be the branching off point for the Smash team to finally work with western developers, and Ubisoft and Bethesda seem to be very close to Nintendo right now.
 
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Honestly, if a Microsoft rep were to get in then Minecraft would be the perfect fit. It’s a game that is still getting support on all consoles except Sony, unlike the dead franchise that is Banjo at this point. It is also on 3 Nintendo systems at this point, so no rules against characters that don’t appear on Nintendo systems can work, unlike with say Master Chief.

I think all 3 are likely, but two will be DLC, which is fair. I think Minecraft would be the perfect entry franchise to Microsoft though, as it seems that many of Nintendo’s developers have experience with it, which is a factor I think people forget, and is a popular franchise of the decade. The Mojang branch also seems to be the most active branch at Microsoft, working with multiple companies, even Japanese if you include Sony and Nintendo, which really gives them a step up on the other two which only have experience serving Microsoft only for at least about 2 decades or so now, especially in the case of Rare which hasn’t done that much in years.

As for the other 3rd party DLC, then I would definitely expect Rayman to show up along with Doom Guy, as Microsoft could be the branching off point for the Smash team to finally work with western developers, and Ubisoft and Bethesda seem to be very close to Nintendo right now.
If they make Steve DLC they better be prepared for low sales. Like Corrin low. I can’t see anything but a backlash happening.
 

Captain Shades

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If they make Steve DLC they better be prepared for low sales. Like Corrin low. I can’t see anything but a backlash happening.
Nah, It’ll do well. Nintendo has a huge audience of casuals that would probably buy it, unlike with the Wii U, and with Minecraft being one of the most successful gaming franchises, I can’t see the number being low. Minecraft has outperformed many of the games on the Eshop, so the game still has a massive amount of popularity on Nintendo systems, you just have to look outside the Smash Fandom bubble to see the real potential. Also, I’m sure many will buy it to complete the game, or just because Steve could bring in an interesting play style not yet scene, becoming one of those hated till seen in action characters.
 
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If Microsoft is involved it's silly to think anyone else but Banjo is getting in. So far characters that ranked high in the fan polls are getting in... Banjo was high in the fan polls so I doubt his situation was any different than K. Rool... the fans want Banjo. Phil Spencer wasn't asked about Master Chief or Steve... he was asked about Banjo. Banjo is in the top of every fan wishlist.. I doubt Sakurai, Rare, Nintendo and Microsoft are blind to that fact.

Any other MS owned character that gets in will be a slap in the face to the vast majority who want Banjo. If Sakurai reaches out to MS he's looking for Banjo and no one else.. I highly doubt Microsoft is going to say "how about Steve instead?" Or "How about Master Chief?"

Rare doesn't have as much say as Microsoft in the matter, MS owns them... if they can hand off Killer Instinct and Battletoads to other devs they can hand Banjo over to Nintendo for Smash. Regardless of what Rare wants, in the scenario Rare doesn't want them to have him for whatever reason..

Master Chief is a character that despite having 0 history with Nintendo, has a legacy in gaming history that makes him more than deserving of a Smash debut

Steve is another gaming icon that has earned the right to stand alongside the legend's in Smash..

But the majority aren't asking for them. The majority is asking for Banjo. No way either of them get in over him. EVEN IF Steve got in the base roster over Banjo, get ready for Banjo DLC.
 

Captain Shades

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If Microsoft is involved it's silly to think anyone else but Banjo is getting in. So far characters that ranked high in the fan polls are getting in... Banjo was high in the fan polls so I doubt his situation was any different than K. Rool... the fans want Banjo. Phil Spencer wasn't asked about Master Chief or Steve... he was asked about Banjo. Banjo is in the top of every fan wishlist.. I doubt Sakurai, Rare, Nintendo and Microsoft are blind to that fact.

Any other MS owned character that gets in will be a slap in the face to the vast majority who want Banjo. If Sakurai reaches out to MS he's looking for Banjo and no one else.. I highly doubt Microsoft is going to say "how about Steve instead?" Or "How about Master Chief?"

Rare doesn't have as much say as Microsoft in the matter, MS owns them... if they can hand off Killer Instinct and Battletoads to other devs they can hand Banjo over to Nintendo for Smash. Regardless of what Rare wants, in the scenario Rare doesn't want them to have him for whatever reason..

Master Chief is a character that despite having 0 history with Nintendo, has a legacy in gaming history that makes him more than deserving of a Smash debut

Steve is another gaming icon that has earned the right to stand alongside the legend's in Smash..

But the majority aren't asking for them. The majority is asking for Banjo. No way either of them get in over him. EVEN IF Steve got in the base roster over Banjo, get ready for Banjo DLC.
I don’t hate the idea of Banjo, but I do believe Steve will get in first as I feel Microsoft’s first character has to be a win-win seeing as them and Nintendo are still technically competitors. Here’s what I mean;

Banjo, he’s a great retro pick that many fans want, so he’d benefit Nintendo, but what about Microsoft? You have to remeber that Microsoft hasn’t used the character in a decade, so he wouldn’t be much of a promotional pull for them. You could say Microsoft will be paid, but I don’t think Microsoft is like Konami, they still want to sell games, so I don’t think Banjo would be a good first pick as it doesn’t exactly benefit them in any way other than maybe a bit of fan applause (which is rare as Konami and Capcom only received **** for including Mega Man and Simon as Nintendo apparently treats them better) and some payment that is nice, but doesn’t help in getting their brand out more.

Master Chief, he has the opposite issue being that he’s too much of a Microsoft character. Since none of his games appear on Nintendo consoles and he’d be a controversial pick, Nintendo isn’t getting much monetary gain from him.

Steve, while yes he may be controversial, he really remedies the two issues being a good advertisement type character for both systems. He’s basically the perfect middleman to then gradually build off of for the two extremes.

Either way, give me all three plus Doom Slayer and Rayman and the 3rd parties will be the best this time around.
 
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I was hoping for when if there is DLC, they release the new characters in packs. Release the DLC characters in duos or trios, for example:

Donkey Kong Pack: Dixie Kong and Funky Kong (e)
Microsoft Pack: Banjo Kazooie, Steve and Master Chief
Pokemon Eclipse Pack: Decidueye and Incineroar
XenoSaga Pack: Elma and Red & Pyra
Newcomer Echo Pack: Digby (e) and Octolings (e)
 

Captain Shades

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I was hoping for when if there is DLC, they release the new characters in packs. Release the DLC characters in duos or trios, for example:

Donkey Kong Pack: Dixie Kong and Funky Kong (e)
Microsoft Pack: Banjo Kazooie, Steve and Master Chief
Pokemon Eclipse Pack: Decidueye and Incineroar
XenoSaga Pack: Elma and Red & Pyra
Newcomer Echo Pack: Digby (e) and Octolings (e)
Cool idea, I guess my prediction for a Microsoft rep in the base roster would make sense for this model as all have two except Microsoft. But being real though, I think Dixie will be in the base roster and probably will be a gen 7 Pokémon as well.
 
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I don’t hate the idea of Banjo, but I do believe Steve will get in first as I feel Microsoft’s first character has to be a win-win seeing as them and Nintendo are still technically competitors. Here’s what I mean;

Banjo, he’s a great retro pick that many fans want, so he’d benefit Nintendo, but what about Microsoft? You have to remeber that Microsoft hasn’t used the character in a decade, so he wouldn’t be much of a promotional pull for them. You could say Microsoft will be paid, but I don’t think Microsoft is like Konami, they still want to sell games, so I don’t think Banjo would be a good first pick as it doesn’t exactly benefit them in any way other than maybe a bit of fan applause (which is rare as Konami and Capcom only received s$&t for including Mega Man and Simon as Nintendo apparently treats them better) and some payment that is nice, but doesn’t help in getting their brand out more.

Master Chief, he has the opposite issue being that he’s too much of a Microsoft character. Since none of his games appear on Nintendo consoles and he’d be a controversial pick, Nintendo isn’t getting much monetary gain from him.

Steve, while yes he may be controversial, he really remedies the two issues being a good advertisement type character for both systems. He’s basically the perfect middleman to then gradually build off of for the two extremes.

Either way, give me all three plus Doom Slayer and Rayman and the 3rd parties will be the best this time around.
I doubt Steve is getting in Smash as a playable character before Banjo... Again. No one's asking for him and Microsoft would be real dumb to hand out a character that is half as popular as Banjo right now. Steve would better serve as DLC because he's more widely recognized and Microsoft would benefit more from the DLC sales.. Banjo would better serve as base character due to his age and lack of current marketing....

My phone made me hit post by accident sorry if you read the incomplete post

Edit: I'd also love to see Doom slayer in Smash... or Dovakhin...
 
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If they make Steve DLC they better be prepared for low sales. Like Corrin low. I can’t see anything but a backlash happening.
I think there could be issues with it, yeah. He makes perfect sense for base because he'll pull in a lot of the casual crowd too.

DLC should be more heavy hitters/hardcore fanbase to a degree. B&K and Master Chief would make them easy money due to their far more hardcore popularity. Steve?, as iconic and popular as he is, does have some pretty legit backlash against him(for whatever reason it can be. Won't go into it, as it's not worth trying to make an argument over it. We just knew he's a very base-breaking character). Chief is arguable in this regard. It's a Nintendo purist thing against him, but he's otherwise extremely popular, but the purist thing is also a severely low number, so while he wouldn't sell as well as B&K, he'll sell well. One issue is that Halo is not very popular in the East(though still reasonably well known, but not as much as in the West).

Besides that, Microsoft wanting to do DLC so they make even more money on sales makes some sense. It's why Paid DLC is a great idea for various games that they have Nintendo crossovers with. Speaking of, is the Halo Mash-Up Pack even free? If not, this is exactly what I mean. They make more money with DLC than just a base game. It'll be active for longer, but more importantly, it also means they can gauge how much people want their game content on a Nintendo system. In other words, if the reason for reviving B&K is impossible to see if it'll sell enough, this would fix it. There's a lot of benefits to DLC for them right now.
 
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Am I the only one who would prefer Matthew over Felix should Isaac get an echo?

if we get a pokemon rep it should be either Genesect or Plusle & Minun. tbh

We don't need a new pokemon tho really
Hmmm... I think the only way we'd get Plusle and Minun is if they decided to put in the the forbidden 7 (4 of which we already have) in celebration of everyone is here
 

Majalbatross

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While I am more than satisfied with the roster we have so far, it would be pretty much perfection for me if either one of these guys made it in:
  • Geno
  • Rayman
  • Shadow
  • Banjo
All of them have been characters I've been advocating for since getting into the series with Brawl, although I also acknowledge that it's good to realistic about my expectations as well (heck, all of these wants of mine are third parties, so there's a lot of chance they won't make it in the first place). I think Isabelle's reveal kept my general expectations and predictions for newcomers in check as, at the end of it all, Smash Bros is still a Nintendo-centred game in terms of characters.
 
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Captain Shades

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I doubt Steve is getting in Smash as a playable character before Banjo... Again. No one's asking for him and Microsoft would be real dumb to hand out a character that is half as popular as Banjo right now. Steve would better serve as DLC because he's more widely recognized and Microsoft would benefit more from the DLC sales.. Banjo would better serve as base character due to his age and lack of current marketing....

My phone made me hit post by accident sorry if you read the incomplete post

Edit: I'd also love to see Doom slayer in Smash... or Dovakhin...
There were many asking for him, I remeber the pre-4 days! Many posts have probably made it into Miiverse cringe by now, but there was a clear audience for Minecraft all throughout the Wii U’s and Smash’s life time, ohh boy.

I know everyone will say ballot, but I’ll be honest, the ballot doesn’t seem to really affect that much. Only one character seems to have gotten in due to the ballot and that’s K Rool, otherwise the others, and even the speculated characters are running off factors outside of ballot. Mainly, many characters are being taken from Brawl polls and Wii U support that came in before the title released.

Ridley just had overall popularity throughout Smash history.

Dark Samus was popular going into Wii U

Chrom was another popular pick going into Wii U

Simon was confirmed to be picked due to people wanting him over Snake in Brawl, otherwise he had pretty average ballot results. He is also from a franchise loved by Sakurai and his team, so he was sort of a personal pick.

Daisy was pretty popular going into any Smash, hell there were jokes about her once Rosalina got picked over her for 4. Daisy has never really had a good indicator for popularity, and the ballot only seemed to put her in an okay position, so she’s sort of up in the air.

Isabelle was choosen due to her popularity in the Animal Crossing community and not much else. She was never really seen as a needed fighter until the echo idea, so I can’t say she was a popular pick for the Smash community.

Inklings would have gotten in regardless of popularity, they just happened to be.

Even other speculated characters aren’t really ballot picks, as they are generally picked for other reasons, such as Skull Kid. Skull Kid was picked because of his presence before Brawl and early Early Wii U, along with being a popular Zelda character. Geno is another one that is probably going to get picked to end the Brawl top 3, as Sonic and Mega Man made it in the last two entries, so now Geno gets his chance. And Bandana Waddle Dee, probably would be in the same position as the Inkling, he’s the 4th member of the Kirby games, and at this point he is a mainstay.

Minecraft still has a very good shot you just have to look outside the ballot, which it seems like Sakurai is doing, and honestly I don’t blame him as the ballot was a dumpster fire of Indies and other random 3rd parties trying to influence results, meme characters, an people putting restrictions on characters as they thought the new character would be in 4, so they didn’t even bother with clearly popular choices like Skull Kid, Ridley, etc. outside the ballot and going into Wii U MC had popularity, it’s one of the highest selling games on Nintendo’s platforms for a reason, so I wouldn’t call it out of the running because Banjo was apparently bigger on the Ballot, as Steve has many other means of getting around that.
 

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Kind of like Fatmanonice Fatmanonice I'm thinking there will be 2-4 more characters. I know people are only thinking there will be one more, but with three months left I doubt there would be just one (remember Isabelle was to be shown on the 6th, three months till release). There is also still a lot they haven't spoken about such as online, the new mode and the vault. Shulk and Robin weren't shown off in normal Direct either. Same for Bowser Jr. I think two is pretty safe with one more in October and the last in late November. This would bring us to 70 characters.

My guess is there will be a trailer in mid October and a "50 Fact Extravaganza" in November. There could be more but I'm a little doubtful of it.
 

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Am I the only one thinking there will be a Pokemon Direct revealing Incineroar in October?
So far, there hasn't been a situation where Smash has been part of another Direct. There has been cross promotion though, as the Xenoblade 2 Direct has content for Breath of the Wild in it. Nintendo has also tied Smash to other reveals like Splatoon 2's DLC and Animal Crossing Switch. I think its very possible but there no precedent for it.
I will say I think the Pokemon will be either Decidueye or Rowlet
 

Door Key Pig

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So in terms of popular potential third parties that are yet to be in the game, base or DLC, we have...

Square: Geno
Namco: Heihachi, Lloyd

Microsoft: Banjo Kazooie
Ubisoft: Rayman
Wayforward: Shantae
Activision: Crash Bandicoot
Bethesda: Doomguy

Also echos:
Shadow (e)/Tails
Ken (e)

Who else? I wanna know if Crash has much else competition!
 
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So in terms of popular potential third parties that are yet to be in the game, base or DLC, we have...

Square: Geno
Namco: Heihachi, Lloyd

Microsoft: Banjo Kazooie
Ubisoft: Rayman
Wayforward: Shantae
Activision: Crash Bandicoot
Bethesda: Doomguy

Also echos:
Shadow (e)/Tails
Ken (e)

Who else? I wanna know if Crash has much else competition!
Steve? from Minecraft
 
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