Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[ZelDan]

The only characters disconfirmed I think are "non-gaming" characters like Goku, or any characters revealed PAST the base game, whether it be from a spirit event or Mii costume.

Anything else is fair game I think.

 

[Twin Shot]

In regard to Sora, we know Nintendo already approached Disney once and was rejected (via GI Insider Imran Kahn). Doesn’t necessarily indicate when that was or if there was another attempt. Feel like people overlook this frequently. (Doesn’t dis/deconfirm either way - shows there was an interest and was “initially” shot down)

What’s the leaning toward first vs third party characters at this point in time? 2 and 2?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Magician Uri Geller apologizes for blocking Kadabra Pokemon cards, gives permission to Nintendo to print the cards again https://t.co/D6t3d6e8tu pic.twitter.com/MxzAVoiKlB

— GoNintendoTweet (@GoNintendoTweet) November 29, 2020

I don't know why, but I feel like we should use this as an excuse to talk about Kadabra in Smash.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

I'd rather not have another Gen 1 Pokemon thanks. Give me a Pokemon from a Gen that isn't represented yet, like Gen 5. How about Volcarona for Smash?

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Magician Uri Geller apologizes for blocking Kadabra Pokemon cards, gives permission to Nintendo to print the cards again https://t.co/D6t3d6e8tu pic.twitter.com/MxzAVoiKlB

— GoNintendoTweet (@GoNintendoTweet) November 29, 2020

I don't know why, but I feel like we should use this as an excuse to talk about Kadabra in Smash.

We don't have a character who uses telekinesis on an opponent, so...

Unless Mewtwo's grabs count, but we can go farther.

 

[SpectreJordan]

People out here still acting like only the numbered KH games matter. Also don't get the idea that the handheld titles were detrimental when 2 of them released on the DS.

I know they matter story wise. But I played Birth By Sleep/Dream Drop Distance & they’re pretty mid tbh. Especially compared to 1/2/3 which I adore.

Also, my point was that the general audience doesn’t show up to the spin-offs like they do for the main entries.

In regard to Sora, we know Nintendo already approached Disney once and was rejected (via GI Insider Imran Kahn). Doesn’t necessarily indicate when that was or if there was another attempt. Feel like people overlook this frequently. (Doesn’t dis/deconfirm either way - shows there was an interest and was “initially” shot down)

What’s the leaning toward first vs third party characters at this point in time? 2 and 2?

I think there’s a good chance for 3 third parties & 1 first party. But a 2:2 split could happen too.

 

[PeridotGX]

I don't know why, but I feel like we should use this as an excuse to talk about Kadabra in Smash.

they will never add kadabra.

murkrow? murkrow's where it's at, basically confirmed.

 

[epicmartin7]

Honestly, I think most "rules" in Smash are moot because the assumptions they're based on are inconclusive as it is.

A rather famous example is "ATs being deconfirmed as DLC". Nothing has ever been said from an official Sakurai or developer source regarding this methodology of thinking. Therefore, the notion is unfalsifiable as of this moment, and has no legs to stand on.

However, I think the bigger issue is looking at the character selection from a scientific approach using patterns. In my opinion, gaming is art, and artists rarely ever limit themselves. And it'd probably be the same here with Smash Bros. character development. I think it'd just be weird for the Smash devs to impose "rules" on themselves because of some technicality. If the team or Nintendo wants to do something, they'll get it done lol.

 

[I.D.]

Because the correct word is disconfirm.

I don't know why. It's a perfectly cromulent word.

 

[SharkLord]

A rather famous example is "ATs being deconfirmed as DLC". Nothing has ever been said from an official Sakurai or developer source regarding this methodology of thinking. Therefore, the notion is unfalsifiable as of this moment, and has no legs to stand on.

To be fair, Sakurai explicitly stated that Assist Trophies wouldn't be playable back in the Miiverse days when explaining Waluigi, so the assumption was that ATs are done for.

That being said, it's been six years since then and Smash's situation has changed a lot. I think it's up for debate until Sakurai clarifies it in the new Smash context.

 

[Commander_Alph]

A rather famous example is "ATs being deconfirmed as DLC". Nothing has ever been said from an official Sakurai or developer source regarding this methodology of thinking. Therefore, the notion is unfalsifiable as of this moment, and has no legs to stand on.

You know people always overlooked this when it comes to deconfirming AT and that is that every assist trophy character that we got are all included in the next smash game. I'm not the type of person that keeps dangling my hopes up but I hate supporting character that has been a mii costume and an AT.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Actually I got to ask

What Characters would you consider to be Deconfirmed?

Spirits and Mii Costumes from around Terry's release (because that's the earliest we heard about Pass 2). Everything that came with Byleth I assume is disconfirmed, since they had to have the roster selected by then, but I guess all DLC before that is a grey area. Rex is fine because he had to have been decided long before Pass 2 was in consideration.

Aside from that, characters disconfirmed by interviews or other development tidbits we've heard, like Doomguy, Kiryu, 2B, etc.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I mean notice how Spring Man, who’s currently an AT, showed up in the ARMS guessing game in March? Even though Min Min was picked over him, I think it could hint that Sakurai’s open to an AT promotion in the same game

but let’s not jump to conclusions yet

 

[Commander_Alph]

I mean notice how Spring Man, who’s currently an AT, showed up in the ARMS guessing game in March? Even though Min Min was picked over him, I think it could hint that Sakurai’s open to an AT promotion in the same game

but let’s not jump to conclusions yet

Bruh, it will totally be stoopid to have a guessing game for a small cast of character and just throw one out of the window

 

[PeridotGX]

I'm pretty sure the Smash 4 Assist Trophy lineup was decided in 2013, and in late 2015 Sakurai decided to add two former Assist Trophies to Ultimate. That's about a two and a half year gap. The Ultimate ATs were probably decided in late 2016, and Fighters Pass 2 in late 2019. That's a three year gap. if Sakurai can reconsider in the gap from Smash 4 to Ultimate, he can recinsider in the gap from Ultimate to Volume 2. And if Nintendo thinks a character will bring in the cash, they won't care if it's an AT.

 

[ahemtoday]

You know people always overlooked this when it comes to deconfirming AT and that is that every assist trophy character that we got are all included in the next smash game. I'm not the type of person that keeps dangling my hopes up but I hate supporting character that has been a mii costume and an AT.

...I'm not sure I'm understanding this correctly. If you mean assist trophies have never been cut... they have been. Kat and Ana aren't in Ultimate, Helirin was only in Brawl, Jill was only in Brawl. Also the three that are fighters now.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I mean notice how Spring Man, who’s currently an AT, showed up in the ARMS guessing game in March? Even though Min Min was picked over him, I think it could hint that Sakurai’s open to an AT promotion in the same game

but let’s not jump to conclusions yet

On the same topic, I think the fact that Bomberman got his Mii Costume is strong evidence that 1) Sakurai will look back at characters from the base game for new roles, even if they are ATs, and 2) a character being confused for an AT is definitely not a concern.

This doesn't mean an AT will be playable, but I think it strongly points to them being possible.

Bruh, it will totally be stoopid to have a guessing game for a small cast of character and just throw one out of the window

If the character was disconfirmed, then it wouldn't be stupid to show that.

If anything, it would make the guessing game even more mysterious because now the main character and obvious choice is off the table.

 

[Commander_Alph]

...I'm not sure I'm understanding this correctly. If you mean assist trophies have never been cut... they have been. Kat and Ana aren't in Ultimate, Helirin was only in Brawl, Jill was only in Brawl. Also the three that are fighters now.

I meant assist trophy upgraded as a fighter, I mean Little Mac is in brawl as AT but Smash 4 he is a fighter with no traces of his AT what so ever, Dark Samus and Isabelle are AT in Brawl and Smash 4 and in Ultimate they are a fighter with no traces of their AT what so ever, I think that if a AT is going to be a fighter they have to cut their AT counterpart from existence and I'm not talking them disabling it but rather out of the game.

 

[Aerospherology]

We don't have a character who uses telekinesis on an opponent, so...

Unless Mewtwo's grabs count, but we can go farther.

What about Orbeetle?

 

[SharkLord]

I mean notice how Spring Man, who’s currently an AT, showed up in the ARMS guessing game in March? Even though Min Min was picked over him, I think it could hint that Sakurai’s open to an AT promotion in the same game

but let’s not jump to conclusions yet

There's also the fact that the Bomberman Mii is almost identical to the Bomberman AT, so Sakurai clearly has no compunctions against letting them run wild. The problem is that the majority of ATs are either popular supporting characters or old series that aren't in the best spot right now. We only got one of the latter in FP1, and none of the former. If we get an AT promotion, my bets are either on Isaac or Shovel Knight.

 

[RileyXY1]

I meant assist trophy upgraded as a fighter, I mean Little Mac is in brawl as AT but Smash 4 he is a fighter with no traces of his AT what so ever, Dark Samus and Isabelle are AT in Brawl and Smash 4 and in Ultimate they are a fighter with no traces of their AT what so ever, I think that if a AT is going to be a fighter they have to cut their AT counterpart from existence and I'm not talking them disabling it but rather out of the game.

And not only that, Dark Samus and Isabelle both mostly take assets from other fighters on the roster, those being Samus and Villager respectively.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

I like how we were now casually discussing the etymology of one of the most tossed-out phrases used in the Smash Speculation. Yeah, disconfirm seems to be largely accepted word, since according to places like Merriam Webster dictionary, it describes the word as "To deny or refute the validity of..." So yeah, I probably should begin referring to dis-confirmations rather than de-confirmations. Just for extra authenticity.

But backtracking a little, in regards to characters I'd say have been explicitly disconfirmed, I'd probably say that Assist Trophy characters count until further notice, spirits that have been added post-launch for promotions like Astral Chain and Ring Fit Adventure on the grounds that they were probably too recent for playable status just yet, and characters who have been made into Mii Costumes in the various Mii Costume waves (Travis, Altaïr or other Assassins, Heihachi, etc). Rex is a very debatable case in the event he's chosen after considering Xenoblade 2 as post launch like they did later with Min-Min for ARMS, but it's a wait and see if you ask me

 

[Commander_Alph]

I mean I feel like AT inclusion as a fighter in Ultimate is just 'cheating' as if they are cutting the line or take someone elses seat when they already have one, tho in Ultimate is where people are really really desperate for AT being a fighter cause as far as Smash 4 they are just chill be like

"Nice, Isaac is in the game, but as an AT.. well third time's the charm "

when Ultimate it'll be like

"****! Why is he an AT trophy again?!?! Let alone in the hypothetical 'last' Smash game. **** it! Call me a madman but I will still hold my hopes that Isaac will be a DLC fighter!"

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

I mean I feel like AT inclusion as a fighter in Ultimate is just 'cheating' as if they are cutting the line or take someone elses seat when they already have one, tho in Ultimate is where people are really really desperate for AT being a fighter cause as far as Smash 4 they are just chill be like "Nice, Isaac is in the game, but as an AT.. well third time's the charm " when Ultimate is be like "*! Why is he an AT trophy again?!?! Let alone in the hypothetical 'last' Smash game. * it! Call me a madman but I will still hold my hopes that Isaac will be a DLC fighter!"

He wasn't even an assist trophy in Smash 4. He just got cut.

 

[Commander_Alph]

Really? I actually didn't notice that. Well you could apply that to Waluigi if you may

 

[epicmartin7]

To be fair, Sakurai explicitly stated that Assist Trophies wouldn't be playable back in the Miiverse days when explaining Waluigi, so the assumption was that ATs are done for.

That being said, it's been six years since then and Smash's situation has changed a lot. I think it's up for debate until Sakurai clarifies it in the new Smash context.

I think he just meant that in the context of the base game. That they wouldn't put an AT into the main game, and then include a playable character alongside it. Since it'd make the AT role kinda' not make sense lol.

But in terms of DLC, DLC is considered to be a different development cycle compared to the main game with sometimes different plans. So I think that mentality wouldn't have an affect on DLC development imo.

 

[SharkLord]

I think he just meant that in the context of the base game. That they wouldn't put an AT into the main game, and then include a playable character alongside it. Since it'd make the AT role kinda' not make sense lol.

But in terms of DLC, DLC is considered to be a different development cycle compared to the main game with sometimes different plans. So I think that mentality wouldn't have an affect on DLC development imo.

Yeah, I don't know if DLC was even planned at the time. Either way, SSBU's DLC cycle is different from SSB4's; I doubt someone like Steve would be on the cards back then either.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Realistically a lot of these deconfirmation beliefs are also a matter of degree with each individual person.

Some see the lack of any appearance on a Nintendo console as maybe a slight detriment for an particular fighter but not wholly preventing their inclusion, while others won't be convinced that a 2B or Heavy from series with no Nintendo history can get into Smash until it actually happens. Same with assist trophy promotions where a few think ones within Ultimate are still on the table (albeit potentially unlikely) while others think Spring Man not getting it was the writing on the wall.

 

[7NATOR]

As Someone that Thinks Assist's aren't Officially deconfirmed, One that Supports and has an AT character as their Most Wanted (Shadow), and One that Thinks Shadow will be in Fighter Pass 2...

I think the best Argument against Assists is if the Development Team feels being an Assist is enough. There's a possibility that they look at Waluigi, Shadow, Isaac, and say that they are good enough as Assists for the Time being. Now as we see with Bomberman, Assists are being reconsidered and they can get extra Roles like Mii costumes (that is fully modeled like Sans and Cuphead). Whether that extends to a Playable character remains to be seen though

And of course, there's the many characters that aren't Assists, or even Spirits or Costumes to contend With. I think Waluigi, Shadow, Isaac, and Shovel Knight have enough merits in their favor to be considered at least seriously.

 

[Aerospherology]

conspiracy theory time

Could the Southern Cross be on our side this time?

StarTropics fans, it's time to put on your tin foil hats! 👀 pic.twitter.com/j3e6eHlTqb

— Dr. Richie (リッチー) (@DrRichie14) November 28, 2020

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Sakurai POTD.

pic.twitter.com/KVR9tw7tdp

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) November 29, 2020

Complete with accompanying soundtrack.

Little late for Halloween though, I'd say.

 

[chocolatejr9]

conspiracy theory time

I should probably mention that Markomaro is a confirmed "fake leaker". That was honestly the only part I noticed because it was going so fast...

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

add also Ryza (interview) and Pokeballs

Tracer COULD also be deconfirmed if you count the one Blizzard interview as a deconfirm

What happened to Ryza?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

What happened to Ryza?

Anyone got that interview that essentially deconfirmed Ryza? I know it happened, it said like “Ryza hasn’t been considered for smash” or something. As solid a deconfirm as you can get

 

[Teeb147]

Anyone got that interview that essentially deconfirmed Ryza? I know it happened, it said like “Ryza hasn’t been considered for smash” or something. As solid a deconfirm as you can get

That would suck. Yes please someone share it so we can debunk it XD

 

[chocolatejr9]

If we're talking about deconfirmed characters again, while I don't know how many of you guys actually CARE about this one, I know Bendy from Bendy and the Ink Machine was deconfirmed by virtue of the game's creators having no way of contacting Nintendo, much less negotiating Bendy in Smash.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

What happened to Ryza?

Anyone got that interview that essentially deconfirmed Ryza? I know it happened, it said like “Ryza hasn’t been considered for smash” or something. As solid a deconfirm as you can get

It's here. They said “I don’t think we are included in Nintendo’s plans. However, if asked if we would like it to be included, I think the whole development team would answer with a big “YES…”

 

[GoodGrief741]

Anyone got that interview that essentially deconfirmed Ryza? I know it happened, it said like “Ryza hasn’t been considered for smash” or something. As solid a deconfirm as you can get

Gust Dev Team Would Say ‘Yes’ to an Atelier Ryza Super Smash Bros Ultimate Appearance

Could Atelier Ryza settle it in Smash? Junzo Hosoi said a Ryza Super Smash Bros Ultimate appearance is something Gust'd say "yes" to.

www.siliconera.com

Here you go

Edit: now I know what it feels like to get ninja'd

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Edit: now I know what it feels like to get ninja'd

Taking over Smashboards, one step at a time......

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

It's here. They said “I don’t think we are included in Nintendo’s plans. However, if asked if we would like it to be included, I think the whole development team would answer with a big “YES…”

Edit: now I know what it feels like to get ninja'd

ITS TIME!

For real though, I had a feeling that for a KT rep it was between Ryza, William from Nioh, or Ryu Hayabusa. Sad to see Ryza die but my boy is livin large.