I’m bored so I’m going to rank the still-standing rumors (I.e. no definite evidence to confirm or deny them) by how likely they are to be true. For reference,
https://www.ssbwiki.com/List_of_rumors (also the Falcom rumor isn’t there yet, anyone wanna add it)?
Cacomallow:
most likely false. the timer doesn’t look the same as the debug timer in the infamous Ken leak; the video uses an already existing stage (Hero’s stage) instead of potentially showing an upcoming one; several modders have shown it’s possible to replicate the physics of the Mallow hat; and it is just overall highly doubtful they’d beta test two hats almost a whole year in advance; especially when we already have a Bethesda costume (Vault Boy). Some French discord modders claimed to take credit, claiming to create “Grinch 2.0” but this statement cannot be verified. Regardless, the statement isn’t even that necessary when the time frame alone makes this very unlikely.
Crash Bandicoot documents:
indeterminate. it hints at a five year plan for Crash based media across multiple systems, including Switch and PC. Switch ports have happened, Crash 4 was announced, but without actual access to it, we can’t verify if Crash was intended for Smash or not.
League of Legends character rumor:
probably true. The rumor predicted the Trials of Mana Spirit Event three months in advance (4chan post dates back to January of this year, a few days after Byleth’s release) and even has a killswitch in the form of the Hollow Knight PreMiium Swordfighter prediction with a remix of Sealed Vessel. A League rep, while unexpected by many, would make sense in context: it’s
huge. Almost Minecraft huge, has the televised yearly Worlds tournament, and has a console/mobile version of LoL, Wild Rift, due this year. It’s very possible Wild Rift may come to Switch. Of course, anything can happen at this point.
Falcom (Adol or Rean) rumor:
probably false. there’s a lot overall that doesn’t add up, like being unsure if it’s Adol or Rean; the confusion over the Trails of Cold Steel spirits (whether they’re an event or Spirit Board with DLC); Estelle Bright from the more popular Trails in the Sky isn’t mentioned; and even though NIS helps develop Falcom’s games now according to someone else here, Falcom alone is still the IP holder and I would think you’d only need to negotiate with them, not NIS in addition. Plus, given the date of the original rumor (June 20), and claiming that they were in talks since last September... im not sure what to think of this one. There’s quite a few inconsistencies overall.
Ubisoft Chat Bot:
indeterminate. before April 22, if you asked the Ubisoft Club bot, Sam, about Smash, it would post a response advocating for Rayman to be included, but after that date, mentioning Smash just gives a generic response. It doesn’t feel like an NDA, and could probably just mean nothing except Rayman not being in this pass.
GameStop “Geno in Smash” comment:
indeterminate; probably nothing.
“During a section of the video going over the history of Mario RPG spin-offs, the host Pamela Horton states that "people were freaking out when Geno was announced for Smash", something that had not happened at the time, though the video used footage of Geno's Spirit Battle during that particular scene. The video was later marked private, and when it was made public again GameStop posted a comment explaining that it was referring to the speculation surrounding the Spirit and that GameStop does not have any inside knowledge of which fighters will or won't appear in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.”
Ryu Hayabusa:
might be true? Vergeben has said KT has been in talks with Nintendo for years, and that Smash was mentioned. IAmShifty also predicted Hayabusa and he accurately predicted Piranha Plant. However, Vergeben has also raised the possibility of KT negotiations falling through for a playable character (they already have an AT; Fatal Frame’s Yuri Kozukata). We will see.
