Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SneakyLink]

pic.twitter.com/OFGnuk92Ny

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) September 9, 2020

When you get stabbed by Sephiroth and are laid to rest in a lake

...wait, what do you mean it was the GIRL that was supposed to get stabbed??

The heart piece in the background really shows the Smash team's attention to detail. Let's hope future stages continue this trend!

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Sakura had games released in the West. You probably shouldn't compare characters against each other as they are each chosen on their own merits.

Characters have their merits, but there's a business element to it that everyone forgets. Having most of your franchise not localized isn't good for business, especially when you have to be a standalone DLC character.

Also people acting like Sakura beating Sonic is some kind of huge deal. Remember that the poll was primarily Japanese. Most of Sonic's fanbase is in the West, in Japan he's seen as little more than a Mickey Mouse-esque mascot character. Japan has pretty much lost its' passion for the franchise, just look how bad Sonic Team botched Forces while the Western-made Mania was a huge success.

Speaking of SEGA, Arle would be a MUCH better choice to compare to Hero than Sakura ever would.

 

[cashregister9]

pic.twitter.com/OFGnuk92Ny

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) September 9, 2020

When you get stabbed by Sephiroth and are laid to rest in a lake

...wait, what do you mean it was the GIRL that was supposed to get stabbed??

Obligatory Text

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

AU where Sephiroth kills Cloud because Aerith was too hardcore.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I think Breath of the Wild/Zelda in general, it’s hard to say what route they would take with a playable character. I personally don’t think any of the ATs would be upgraded, especially when the focus is on BOTW right now.

With BOTW, however, we already have a stage and music from it. Given the fact that it’s the same world, we’d be getting another stage from the same “world” of BOTW, which...I personally don’t know what to make of it. The Great Plateau was the biggest part of BOTW, and it’s showcased in the Tower stage.The stage from BOTW2 would probably be central to the game/character added. BOTW Zelda was turned down at the beginning of development anyway, so I don’t really think they’d go back on that for a $5.99 character.

They could go with a Champion, but that assumes they’re looking at HW, and not BOTW. They may not even have a large role in BOTW2, which would make any of them a strange choice at that point.

It’s kinda one of those things where BOTW Link is still right there, and it seems like a character is being forced out of it for the sake of it. This isn’t to say a Champion wouldn’t be cool- I once stanned the option pre-“Everyone is here!”. That said, I think it’s a weird discussion to have.

Honestly I think the character would need to be added on their own merits, not to arbitrarily give Zelda a character, which is what it seems like folks are arguing. Zelda has plenty of excellent characters, so I can’t blame anybody for wanting them. I just think it’s far from a guarantee.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Gonna chime in and say I heavily disagree with the sudden insistance that Reimu, Ryza, Sakura, etc are suddenly super likely. People are comparing them to Dragon Quest and Persona, which is completely ridiculous. These two franchises, even if they are juggernauts in Japan, they were still relatively well known about in the West. Dragon Quest and Persona have been getting games in the west for years, and the latter has been pushed by Nintendo since 2014 when they became buddy buddy with Square Enix. Touhou has fans in the west but beyond avid internet users barely anyone knows about it (I expect a Mii Costume if anything. If world-renown also one-man franchise Sans was relegated to one, Reimu doesn't fare better at all). Plus Nintendo has never pushed any Touhou games in their directs. Sakura Wars is still a literal who in the west (Dragon Quest had more Workdwide renown in the 2000s than Sakura Wars has now), and 90% of it hasn't been localized. Ryza, while faring better than the other two, still has the regional hurdle. Ryza and her sequel were both featured in directs... in Japan only (the September direct last year gave us a Doom 64 segment in its place). If Nintendo wasn't confident in showing it internationally, why would it be Hero-esque DLC? Estelle definitely fares better than the rest, while not being acticely pushed there still was Trails of Cold Steel III on the Switch news page.

I know we did get unexpected less popular picks like Terry last pass, but I still think comparing these extremely niche characters to Hero and Joker (even if the latter should've been Jack Frost instead in my opinion) is completely ludicrous...

Another thing that I want to note is that despite being less popular in the grand schemes of things, both Joker and Terry are the face of their respective developers. Persona is Atlus best selling franchises and Persona 5 is Atlus best selling games. Terry is the mascot of SNK and Fatal fury is super important to the developper and Terry appear in every King of fighters game.

For Atelier and Koei tecmo, Ninja gaiden is way more popular and his pretty much the face of the developpers. For Sakura and Sega, obviously Sega already have their mascot in the game, but there's plenty of Sega franchises more important and popular than Sakura wars like Puyo puyo, Yakuza and Streets of rage. This point wouldn't apply to Reimu since she don't have competition from the same dev, so that helps her a bit imo (still seems unlikely for different reason).

 

[Shroob]

Another thing that I want to note is that despite being less popular in the grand schemes of things, both Joker and Terry are the face of their respective developers. Persona is Atlus best selling franchises and Persona 5 is Atlus best selling games. Terry is the mascot of SNK and Fatal fury is super important to the developper and Terry appear in every King of fighters game.

For Atelier and Koei tecmo, Ninja gaiden is way more popular and his pretty much the face of the developpers. For Sakura and Sega, obviously Sega already have their mascot in the game, but there's plenty of Sega franchises more important and popular than Sakura wars like Puyo puyo, Yakuza and Streets of rage. This point wouldn't apply to Reimu since she don't have competition from the same dev, so that helps her a bit imo (still seems unlikely for different reason).

I would not at all call Joker the 'face' of Atlus.


Persona 5 may be their best selling game, but I'd wager until Persona 5, they were much more known for Shin Megami Tensei and Persona 4. If anything, I'd call Jack Frost, their literal mascot, the "Face" of the company, considering that they slap his face in a ton of their games.

 

[SharkLord]

Another thing that I want to note is that despite being less popular in the grand schemes of things, both Joker and Terry are the face of their respective developers. Persona is Atlus best selling franchises and Persona 5 is Atlus best selling games. Terry is the mascot of SNK and Fatal fury is super important to the developper and Terry appear in every King of fighters game.

For Atelier and Koei tecmo, Ninja gaiden is way more popular and his pretty much the face of the developpers. For Sakura and Sega, obviously Sega already have their mascot in the game, but there's plenty of Sega franchises more important and popular than Sakura wars like Puyo puyo, Yakuza and Streets of rage. This point wouldn't apply to Reimu since she don't have competition from the same dev, so that helps her a bit imo (still seems unlikely for different reason).

I dunno. Sakura Wars is an absolute juggernaut in Japan. This is the series that kept the Saturn afloat (Well, that and Segata Sanshiro threatening to judo throw you so hard you explode) and branched out into a ton of different media, including 25 stage shows. Twenty-five. Maybe in the West, those franchises ae more popular, but turn to Japan and you'd better have a good argument to back up that statement.

Characters have their merits, but there's a business element to it that everyone forgets. Having most of your franchise not localized isn't good for business, especially when you have to be a standalone DLC character.

Also people acting like Sakura beating Sonic is some kind of huge deal. Remember that the poll was primarily Japanese. Most of Sonic's fanbase is in the West, in Japan he's seen as little more than a Mickey Mouse-esque mascot character. Japan has pretty much lost its' passion for the franchise, just look how bad Sonic Team botched Forces while the Western-made Mania was a huge success.

Speaking of SEGA, Arle would be a MUCH better choice to compare to Hero than Sakura ever would.

On one hand, yes, Sonic is less popular in Japan. On the other hand, he was still able to squeeze into second place. Evidently, not as popular necessarily equates to unpopular. As for the Forces/Mania note, that doesn't really apply to a poll that was from 2016. If Forces tarnished the Blue Blur's image in Japan, it wouldn't have an effect on the poll.

On a side note, why is it that my hot take gets all the attention? What is it about me that gets noticed? Maybe it was the volume of text. I more or less wrote an essay on Reimu, so I suppose that would garner more attention. Still...

 

[PLANTMAN]

I have a Question. Excluding Lloyd would a Expectation pass that has geno Chief Dante & crash altogether in the exact same pass feel unrealistic?

 

[TheShiningAbsol]

Another thing that I want to note is that despite being less popular in the grand schemes of things, both Joker and Terry are the face of their respective developers. Persona is Atlus best selling franchises and Persona 5 is Atlus best selling games. Terry is the mascot of SNK and Fatal fury is super important to the developper and Terry appear in every King of fighters game.

For Atelier and Koei tecmo, Ninja gaiden is way more popular and his pretty much the face of the developpers.

If we're going to compare Atelier to Persona though, we need to remember that Atelier is a Gust game like Persona is an Atlus game. Atelier kinda isn't a Koei Tecmo title, just like Persona kinda isn't a SEGA title - the developers are just owned by them. So Ryza doesn't necessarily need to be the face of Koei Tecmo. Is it still more likely that Hayabusa would get in first? Probably, especially if we follow the SEGA logic of Sonic coming first, but I think we need to make fair comparisons if we're going to make them.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think Breath of the Wild/Zelda in general, it’s hard to say what route they would take with a playable character. I personally don’t think any of the ATs would be upgraded, especially when the focus is on BOTW right now.

With BOTW, however, we already have a stage and music from it. Given the fact that it’s the same world, we’d be getting another stage from the same “world” of BOTW, which...I personally don’t know what to make of it. The Great Plateau was the biggest part of BOTW, and it’s showcased in the Tower stage.The stage from BOTW2 would probably be central to the game/character added. BOTW was turned down at the beginning of development anyway, so I don’t really think they’d go back on that for a $5.99 character.

They could go with a Champion, but that assumes they’re looking at HW, and not BOTW. They may not even have a large role in BOTW2, which would make any of them a strange choice at that point.

It’s kinda one of those things where BOTW Link is still right there, and it seems like a character is being forced out of it for the sake of it. This isn’t to say a Champion wouldn’t be cool- I once stanned the option pre-“Everyone is here!”. That said, I think it’s a weird discussion to have.

Honestly I think the character would need to be added on their own merits, not to arbitrarily give Zelda a character, which is what it seems like folks are arguing. Zelda has plenty of excellent characters, so I can’t blame anybody for wanting them. I just think it’s far from a guarantee.

Based on this and the Mii Costume, I think I'm convinced: We will not be getting a The Legend of Zelda character for DLC.

Thinking more on it, and this could just be rubber banding with my general mood, but I don't think we'll see anyone from a long running B-list or lower franchise either. It's just not something Nintendo would want to promote. So, Super Mario is out, The Legend of Zelda is out, and we probably wont see Fire Emblem again, so that just leaves Pokémon, Animal Crossing, Splatoon, and Xenoblade Chronicles. The latter is only because I think it's a series that Nintendo is actively trying to grow. I don't think we'll get a character from Animal Crossing since Nintendo seems to be pretty confident in people's interest in the series. Pokémon is an option they may take to promote their DLC and because simply put, Pokémon sells. I could also see Splatoon since it seems to be something they're keeping going far past what's normal; they're probably doing what they can to keep Splatoon 2 alive so that they'll have a lot of eyes on the property when they can start unveiling spin-offs to branch out. A Smash character could help in that regard. And then there's Xenoblade Chronicles. I don't think we'll be seeing anything from Xenoblade Chronicles X soon if at all, so that just leaves us with Rex & Pyra/Mythra, a character they would have added if the game was older, or someone from Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition. I'm not sure which one they'd go with, but I think either would be a solid choice for their purposes.

Anyone else though, I think it's safe to say they have no chance. Realistically, the slots that aren't those three series will be 3rd party characters.

 

[Slime Master]

I don't have very strong thoughts on the likelihood of big-in-Japan characters, but aside from sheer popularity there is one thing DQ always had over them: Nintendo has been very invested in getting it to stick in the west for a long time now. They pushed DQ9 hard. Sometimes it even feels like Nintendo wants the franchise to succeed more than Squenix does. It may be that I just don't pay close enough attention, but I haven't seen that kind of push for Sakura Wars. Again, don't know if I would totally dismiss Sakura, just one place the comparison falls flat (and something that, in hindsight, probably should have made a DQ rep an obvious choice)

 

[Hadokeyblade]

The awkward part of this Sakura conversation is that the One I'm thinking of and the One everyone else is thinking of are two completely different characters.

This one is a character Sega actually wants to push going forward. lol

 

[Idon]

I would not at all call Joker the 'face' of Atlus.


Persona 5 may be their best selling game, but I'd wager until Persona 5, they were much more known for Shin Megami Tensei and Persona 4. If anything, I'd call Jack Frost, their literal mascot, the "Face" of the company, considering that they slap his face in a ton of their games.

Maybe back then.
Now though?

Uhhh

Yeah I would say Atlus is pushing Joker pretty damn hard, especially since he's, y'know, the guy who got into smash and not ole Jack Frost.

 

[Deleted member]

How come some people are not considering the Mario Direct a full direct? It has the word "direct" in its name.

a The Legend of Zelda.

This wording feels wrong to me, I don't know why.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

As for the Forces/Mania note, that doesn't really apply to a poll that was from 2016. If Forces tarnished the Blue Blur's image in Japan

That's true, though the point about Forces vs. Mania was just to show that the West has way more passion for Sonic than Japan does.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

How come some people are not considering the Mario Direct a full direct? It has the word "direct" in its name.

This wording feels wrong to me, I don't know why.

Because "a the" is grammatically incorrect, but The Legend of Zelda is the series's full name so it's still correct even though it sounds wrong.

 

[SirCamp]

Based on this and the Mii Costume, I think I'm convinced: We will not be getting a The Legend of Zelda character for DLC.

Thinking more on it, and this could just be rubber banding with my general mood, but I don't think we'll see anyone from a long running B-list or lower franchise. It's just not something Nintendo would want to promote. So, Super Mario is out, The Legend of Zelda is out, and we probably wont see Fire Emblem again, so that just leaves Pokémon, Animal Crossing, Splatoon, and Xenoblade Chronicles. The latter is only because I think it's a series that Nintendo is actively trying to grow.

Is the implication here that Mario and Zelda are "B-list or lower franchises?" Because I- uh... ??????

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Maybe back then.
Now though?

Uhhh


Yeah I would say Atlus is pushing Joker pretty damn hard, especially since he's, y'know, the guy who got into smash and not ole Jack Frost.

It feels oddly satisfying to see the golden boys in one shot so close together (sonic, joker, kiryu and Majima.)

 

[Idon]

How come some people are not considering the Mario Direct a full direct? It has the word "direct" in its name.

This wording feels wrong to me, I don't know why.

People are considering it a direct. They aren't considering it a general direct which is:

• 30+ minutes long
• has multiple games both first and third party
• announced ahead of time
• is a live event

Those usually have big games people are interested in and a Smash announcement.

It feels oddly satisfying to see the golden boys in one shot so close together (sonic, joker, kiryu and Majima.)

Personally it feels depressing knowing Persona 5 is all Atlus got to show.

 

[ZelDan]

Maybe back then.
Now though?

Uhhh


Yeah I would say Atlus is pushing Joker pretty damn hard, especially since he's, y'know, the guy who got into smash and not ole Jack Frost.

Are they pushing Joker harder than they did Yu before Persona 5 was a thing? I'm sure They went crazy with Yu but he ended up getting shoved to the sideline as far as I could tell.

I don't know if Joker would really work as the face of Atlus if he just ends up getting pushed aside for whoever the main character of Persona 6 is.

 

[cashregister9]

The awkward part of this Sakura conversation is that the One I'm thinking of and the One everyone else is thinking of are two completely different characters.
View attachment 285051
This one is a character Sega actually wants to push going forward. lol

I will be shocked if they don't do an Olimar/Alph thing with the 2 Sakuras

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Is the implication here that Mario and Zelda are "B-list or lower franchises?" Because I- uh... ??????

No I meant anything lower than that probably wouldn't get a character.
EDIT: Unless it's something they're already pushing, which is why I think Xenoblade Chronicles is on the table.

That's true, though the point about Forces vs. Mania was just to show that the West has way more passion for Sonic than Japan does.

I'm not sure it's a good comparison. Sonic Mania may be a passionate fan project, but Sonic Forces is one of a slew Sega's bungling of a Sonic game. I think it has more to do with competency than passion.

 

[Idon]

Are they pushing Joker harder than they did Yu before Persona 5 was a thing? I'm sure They went crazy with Yu but he ended up getting shoved to the sideline as far as I could tell.

I don't know if Joker would really work as the face of Atlus if he just ends up getting pushed aside for whoever the main character of Persona 6 is.

Well yeah I'd still consider him the face just like Yu was even if it's only temporary.

Unlike Nintendo keeping their Italian Plumber as their forever "face of gaming", Atlus are much more willing to transition into different phases of their life and hard push whatever big Persona game they got. Jack Frost might have history but Jack Frost isn't who people in the general gaming sphere think of when I say "Atlus"- they think "The guys that make Persona."

 

[Hadokeyblade]

It actually really bugs me that Jack frost didn't even get a spirit.

 

[SharkLord]

The awkward part of this Sakura conversation is that the One I'm thinking of and the One everyone else is thinking of are two completely different characters.
View attachment 285051
This one is a character Sega actually wants to push going forward. lol

I mean, Hero was just,

All at once. If Hero can cram four different incarnations into a single slot, we can sure as heck get two Sakuras.

I'm not sure it's a good comparison. Sonic Mania may be a passionate fan project, but Sonic Forces is one of a slew Sega's bungling of a Sonic game. I think it has more to do with competency than passion.

Yeah, if a game falls flat, that's on the devs. It's not necessarily about passion, it's about the skill of the dev team and whatever issues happened in the production.

 

[Idon]

It actually really bugs me that Jack frost didn't even get a spirit.

Well that's easy to explain.

Clearly they're saving that spirit for when the Shin Megami Tensei character gets added in Fighter's Pass 2... ahahah

Spoiler

 

[Perkilator]

I will be shocked if they don't do an Olimar/Alph thing with the 2 Sakuras

I mean, Hero was just,

All at once. If Hero can cram four different incarnations into a single slot, we can sure as heck get two Sakuras.

I dunno...the two Sakuras' fighting styles are too different from each other to justify an Olimar/Alph situation (which already sucks since Alph should've been Olimar's Echo). If the two both get in at once, then Sakura Amamiya should be an Echo of Sakura Shinguji.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

I don't have knowledge about what the majority of you guys are discussing, so I'm just gonna say this: screw AT promotions, let's see an item get promoted into a fighter!

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I dunno...the two Sakuras' fighting styles are too different from each other to justify an Olimar/Alph situation (which already sucks since Alph should've been Olimar's Echo). If the two both get in at once, then Sakura Amamiya should be an Echo of Sakura Shinguji.

Are they? They don't look that different to me, and it would make sense for them to share similar styles, since the newer Sakura's entire character is that she's a simp for the older one and tries to do what she did.

 

[Cosmic77]

I have my own idea of who's likely and who's not, but I'm being careful because I don't want to get trigger-happy with the "decomfirmations". The second pass just started, and even though we already got the first fighter, it doesn't feel like anything got cleared up. Min Min was a pretty unusual way to start the pass, and very few people came close to guessing something close to an ARMS rep. The lack of discussion it received shows that everyone sort of quietly agreed that it probably wasn't happening.

I think people will be surprised by this pass, and that's one pattern I'm sure will continue throughout the DLC. We'll probably get a few characters that we mostly ignored, some of whom may have been wrote off but got in anyway.

 

[cashregister9]

I dunno...the two Sakuras' fighting styles are too different from each other to justify an Olimar/Alph situation (which already sucks since Alph should've been Olimar's Echo). If the two both get in at once, then Sakura Amamiya should be an Echo of Sakura Shinguji.

They could easily make a Sakura moveset that pulls from both characters and Ideally Sakura's moveset would just be the Mech abilities but translated to the non mech forms and the Mechs fight the same

Spoiler: Spoilers for Sakura Wars 2019!!!

Also it is literally a plot point that the 2 Sakuras fight the same

 

[TheBeastHimself]

I think we all tend to forget how likely and realistic Fortnite Jonesy is.

 

[cashregister9]

I think we all tend to forget how likely and realistic Fortnite Jonesy is.

Mii costume probably

Character i'm not so sure I'm not sure if Fortnite is popular in the east it wouldn't shock me I want to say that Fortnite seems to much like a fad but that is woefully mischaracterizing the whole situation and also seems false

 

[PLANTMAN]

We'll probably get a few characters that we mostly ignored, some of whom may have been wrote off but got in anyway.

I hope so because That’s not what the majority of the western smash Fanbase thinks. what they think is The pass will be all like geno Chief Dante & crash all together. I wanna be surprised not spoiled (but then again I really want a 2nd xenoblade rep in the pass (fiora & Rex are my bets) but still)

and tbh 3/4 of those 3rd parties didn’t even originate on a Nintendo console until at least one of those games got potted

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Yeah, if a game falls flat, that's on the devs. It's not necessarily about passion, it's about the skill of the dev team and whatever issues happened in the production.

Or the marketing team if the game's actually good.

...

I wonder what would happen if they treated 3D Sonic like a racing game. Make it like Mario Kart, but instead of other racers, there's platforming and enemies and stuff. The different "karts" are the different characters like Tails and Shadow and stuff, the 8 cups would be 8 worlds, and since tracks loop in on each other but platforming levels don't, the four tracks would translate to two acts. The racing game angle might help with level design as well since there are already established rules for what works and what doesn't even in 3D with the objective of going fast. And heck if they think something like Mario Kart is too slow then they have things like Fast RMX and F-Zero GX to look at.

I dunno. Just a random thought.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Mii costume probably

Character i'm not so sure

It'd either be Mii costume or character, but I do think there's a chance for him to be playable:

• Epic Games loves to collaborate with other companies and do crossovers
• Fortnite is on the Switch, it even got bundled with the Switch. That's Nintendo trusting that the game alone would be popular enough to sell help sell their console.
• Fortnite has become one of the most popular games in recent times, at this point everyone has at least heard about it, and it still has hundreds of millions of active players.

This, to me, seems like the perfect recipe for getting invited to Smash. I personally don't like Fortnite, but the game can easily make its way into Smash. It's extremely marketable, and there's no chance Epic Games would reject Nintendo if they asked.

 

[skylanders fan]

I think we get Minecraft Steve before we get anything fortnite but I doubt we get either most I think we get is a creeper mii costume

 

[Hadokeyblade]

It'd either be Mii costume or character, but I do think there's a chance for him to be playable:

• Epic Games loves to collaborate with other companies and do crossovers
• Fortnite is on the Switch, it even got bundled with the Switch. That's Nintendo trusting that the game alone would be popular enough to sell help sell their console.
• Fortnite has become one of the most popular games in recent times, at this point everyone has at least heard about it, and it still has hundreds of millions of active players.

This, to me, seems like the perfect recipe for getting invited to Smash. I personally don't like Fortnite, but the game can easily make its way into Smash. It's extremely marketable, and there's no chance Epic Games would reject Nintendo if they asked.

The default dance better be a taunt or I'm asking a refund.

 

[SneakyLink]

It'd either be Mii costume or character, but I do think there's a chance for him to be playable:

• Epic Games loves to collaborate with other companies and do crossovers
• Fortnite is on the Switch, it even got bundled with the Switch. That's Nintendo trusting that the game alone would be popular enough to sell help sell their console.
• Fortnite has become one of the most popular games in recent times, at this point everyone has at least heard about it, and it still has hundreds of millions of active players.

This, to me, seems like the perfect recipe for getting invited to Smash. I personally don't like Fortnite, but the game can easily make its way into Smash. It's extremely marketable, and there's no chance Epic Games would reject Nintendo if they asked.

Only thing I can see getting in Fortnite’s way is the music.
First, I admit I never touched Fortnite so I’m likely wrong here.
That said, from what I’ve seen all the music is victory style jingles (such as the type used on the “default dance” (lowkey I want a Fortnite rep just for this particular pose)) and the actual game doesn’t have music.
Now I admit there is the “Save the World” mode and there’s likely music there so that’s something...