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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Guybrush20X6

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When I bring it up, I’m referring to how they have the same Indiana jones type adventurer niche, I feel like we would only get one of that type of character and Lara Croft would probably be easier to get then a Sony character and is more iconic
Y'all forgetting the main video game explorer man, Pitfall Harry!

 
D

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In a world where Crash wasn’t owned by Activision/Blizzard, I would be hyped for this alledged leak of a new Crash game.
 

Droodle

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The only thing that really hurts the chances of a Tales/Tekken rep as FP 5 is that its too obvious. So far, I would argue that none of the DLC characters have been that obvious apart from maybe Banjo, but that's another can of worms.

-No one really predicted Joker
-Hero would be very unexpected if he didn't leak so heavily.
-Banjo was a Microsoft character, which many thought would be impossible to get in Smash. Also "dead" series.
- Terry would have been off of everyone's radar, until Nintendo leaked the SNK logo.

-Meanwhile Tekken and Tales are characters pretty much everyone thinks is coming.

There is also the "niche" theory; where every successive character/s more niche than the last one in the Smash/general videogame fanbase. I would argue that Tekken and Tales are definitely more known then Fatal Fury. Smash is also known to end things on a whimper rather then a bang (even though DLC isn't over, but this next character was planned to be the last one). Which fits with this theory.

Also pretty much all the DLC characters have played vastly different from each other.

Using this guideline the widely talked about characters/series that fit this are:
-Ace Attorney (While Phoenix is more talked about in the Smash community, you could argue that he is more niche in the global audience then Terry/FF, overall a little unsure)
-Xenosaga (Widely speculated right now, and definitely fits this pattern)
- Touhou (Maybe more well known than Fatal Fury in Japan, but definitely not worldwide; widely speculated)
- Ys (Not speculated, but definitely fits here)
- Kiseki (Not speculated, but definitely fits)
Layton? (Unsure, same as Phoenix?)
-Klonoa
-Danganronpa (Unsure)
- Probably a ton of Western series I'm not talking about.

It's probably a pattern more than anything; but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a character from any of the above. The primary character from each series would probably play really differently from the DLC we have so far, and they would definitely be more niche then Terry. They're all characters that most people don't see coming either.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Speaking of both Xenosaga and the Game Awards, has this been discussed here yet?

https://boards.4channel.org/v/thread/485133047

oh God leaker don’t do it. Don’t give me hope...

some similarities to Drunken Cat, two post pass peeps in development but unlike Drunken Cat, doesn’t say who they are
 

SKX31

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That's what I don't get about the "Smash needs a reboot" crowd. Yeah they could change the gameplay, but like...why? What gameplay change would be worth a full reboot? Especially when the roster, not the gameplay, is the selling point.
I can only speak for myself, but as someone who has consistently done Smash 6 ratings in the RTC thread I have this to say:

For me it comes down to one assumption: Nintendo likely wants to keep Smash going even if Sakurai retires or takes a back seat. This is assuming Nintendo continues to make consoles - which is not guaranteed - but why stop a money-printing machine? No matter if Ultimate DX happens or how Nintendo moves after the Switch, Smash 6's gonna arrive someday. The later, the older Sakurai will be (he'll turn 50 next year).

It's a difficult position, but it's kinda akin to Nintendo / TPC wanting another Pokemon game when their primary handheld line (Game Boy to 3DS) got practically replaced by the Switch. I'm not gonna give a detailed opinion on Sw / Sh, but to put it simply: It looks rushed in some areas. Not gonna lose sleep over it though. The NatDex thing was inevitable one gen or the other simply because of the ever-increasing size. Not saying Pokemon cuts was justified in this context, saying that it was gonna happen one way or the other. Especially if there's been a time crunch on the development.

This is where one can draw a useful comparision to the probable Smash 6 cuts. Smash 6 is likely to arrive way into the future (I'm guessing 2025 at the very earliest) because it's not gonna come to the Switch. That's far into the future when it comes to this field, but one can assume A) Ninty might not be able to renew every single third party contract and B) There could be some pressure within Ninty to "cut the fat" with some characters (cue enraged comments on the Net, as per Sw / Sh). Now this becomes a major tightrope walk.

As such Smash 6 needs to:

* Not be rushed. It's to early to tell how Sw / Sh is doing, but Ninty will want to avoid another PR storm - especially with Smash. And especially if Sakurai does not return. If anything Sakurai set the bar high.

* Introduce not only new gameplay mechanics, but also include some other hook. Tighter story, considering Sakurai has dabbled in Subspace and WoL? Improved online? New modes? They'd need something substantial.

* Compensate for the probable roster cuts. Smash 6 is not likely to retain the exact same dev team or code (which is what helped Ultimate). If the roster cuts are major, expect a mix of fan favorites, new IPs and third parties. Also, we can't tell the size of Smash 6's roster, but I personally feel 55-60 will be the absolute minimum.
 
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osby

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Speaking of both Xenosaga and the Game Awards, has this been discussed here yet?

https://boards.4channel.org/v/thread/485133047

oh God leaker don’t do it. Don’t give me hope...

some similarities to Drunken Cat, two post pass peeps in development but unlike Drunken Cat, doesn’t say who they are

This will also work to promote Xenosaga HD coming on switch
I thought we were done with the whole "this character's reveal will perfectly align with a switch port announcement" thing, after it didn't happen four times.

Calling fake on this one until it has anything going for it.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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I can only speak for myself, but as someone who has consistently done Smash 6 ratings in the RTC thread I have this to say:

For me it comes down to one assumption: Nintendo likely wants to keep Smash going even if Sakurai retires or takes a back seat. This is assuming Nintendo continues to make consoles - which is not guaranteed - but why stop a money-printing machine? No matter if Ultimate DX happens or how Nintendo moves after the Switch, Smash 6's gonna arrive someday. The later, the older Sakurai will be (he'll turn 50 next year).

It's a difficult position, but it's kinda akin to Nintendo / TPC wanting another Pokemon game when their primary handheld line (Game Boy to 3DS) got practically replaced by the Switch. I'm not gonna give a detailed opinion on Sw / Sh, but to put it simply: It looks rushed in some areas. Not gonna lose sleep over it though. The NatDex thing was inevitable one gen or the other simply because of the ever-increasing size. Not saying Pokemon cuts was justified in this context, saying that it was gonna happen one way or the other. Especially if there's been a time crunch on the development.

This is where one can draw a useful comparision to the probable Smash 6 cuts. Smash 6 is likely to arrive way into the future (I'm guessing 2025 at the very earliest) because it's not gonna come to the Switch. That's far into the future when it comes to this field, but one can assume A) Ninty might not be able to renew every single third party contract and B) There could be some pressure within Ninty to "cut the fat" with some characters (cue enraged comments on the Net, as per Sw / Sh). Now this becomes a major tightrope walk.

As such Smash 6 needs to:

* Not be rushed. It's to early to tell how Sw / Sh is doing, but Ninty will want to avoid another PR storm - especially with Smash. And especially if Sakurai does not return. If anything Sakurai set the bar high.

* Introduce not only new gameplay mechanics, but also include some other hook. Tighter story, considering Sakurai has dabbled in Subspace and WoL? Improved online? New modes? They'd need something substantial.

* Compensate for the probable roster cuts. Smash 6 is not likely to retain the exact same dev team or code (which is what helped Ultimate). If the roster cuts are major, expect a mix of fan favorites, new IPs and third parties. Also, we can't tell the size of Smash 6's roster, but I personally feel 55-60 will be the absolute minimum.
Ok but you're really saying a game built from scratch would have 55 as a minimum on the base roster with whatever wildly different gameplay style would be used?
 

SKX31

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Ok but you're really saying a game built from scratch would have 55 as a minimum on the base roster with whatever wildly different gameplay style would be used?
I honestly don't see any other way. Smash 6 (assuming it gets made, no matter when) is inevitably going to get comparisions to Ultimate. They'd need to walk a very tight rope when designing the game from scratch, on - likely - a new console / system. 6 needs to stand out in some form or fashion, no matter how difficult it is. And I doubt that Nintendo would like the complaints if 6's roster size was closer to Brawl's.

It's gonna be a long development cycle, that's for sure.
 

3BitSaurus

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1. Because they've already been judged by Ultimate and turned into Spirits. If they really have what it takes, then they can stick it out like King K. Rool did while fan voices do the rest. But they're not going to find their invitation here and now.

2. Three Houses exists in a tenuous space because there's no telling what the next Fire Emblem might do to succeed it, and 3H has enough flaws to be surpassed. Astral Chain worries about what happened with The Wonderful 101 and Daemon X Machina, both fairly-unique and promising games that nevertheless got spirited. But ultimately, they're both still too young to know if they'll have a legacy - better to sneak in like Greninja and Corrin did than to hope that history remembers you.
1. Which is exactly why it's unfair to say "other characters should have priority because these guys will always have a chance". Repeat that for long enough, several games even, and it means these guys won't have a chance for a very long time. My point is: saying "X should be a priority because Y can always get in later" is a moot point because that can pretty much be applied to any character you don't think it's a priority.

2. I mean... so did Mario Galaxy and Twilight Princess and Pokémon X and Y and several other games, yet they still got content in Smash. Again: if next Smash they decide to put TH aside for another promo FE pick a la Corrin, despite the former's popularity, I'd argue the problem isn't with TH, but rather with roster selection itself.

As for Astral Chain, I find the comparison weird - TW101 was a good game, yes, but as any new Wii U IP that isn't Splatoon, you could argue that it was doomed from the start - a Switch port is everything that game needed, if anything.

For DXM... there's a reason a video titled "The Unmarketable Daemon X Machina" exists. That game wasn't given the spotlight it deserved, and when it did, the trailers looked incredibly dull when the game itself is not. Sad, but I guess we see it happen from time to time.

AC is in a way better condition than those two, I believe. It was played and streamed around a lot in its first few weeks - something TW101 and DXM didn't have in the same measure. If you're good enough, history will remember you.
 
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AEMehr

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To be fair, his theory stated that they changed the orders of Hayabusa and Doomguy following the leaks. Which is why when everyone and their nanay were leaking about, all eyes were on those two. Probably has viability, though it seems **** can get wild.
Do you really think they can decide to switch a character they planned and agreed to have appear in November of last year with something else they had to have discussed much much later?

That's just poor business practices. You can't mess up planning like that, because what if the parent company of the fighter has plans made to coincide with that release? If you'll recall, there was a pretty big sale on a lot of NEO GEO games to celebrate the release of Terry last week. These releases are planned in advance, they can't just switch these character release schedules as they please.

Besides, their theory on the subject is based on the concept of Hayabusa and Doomguy being interchangeable because they would both have to be part of the same project plan. We already have 4 of the 5 fighters pass characters, so it doesn't make for sense something like that to happen anyways since there is only one fighter left.
 

Momotsuki

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Y'know, isn't Ultimate eligible for stuff at TGA this year? Just wondering, since I don't believe it was last year due to when it released.
 

Ura

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Y'know, isn't Ultimate eligible for stuff at TGA this year? Just wondering, since I don't believe it was last year due to when it released.
I mean it should realistically speaking. It's also the reason why I think these kinds of award shows should be done in January VS December.
 

Night Gale

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I thought we were done with the whole "this character's reveal will perfectly align with a switch port announcement" thing, after it didn't happen four times.

Calling fake on this one until it has anything going for it.
I agree but there's some precedent to their logic. They're focusing on the announcements of Switch ports, but most of the dates the characters release in Smash have meaning.



Luminary released 1 day before his 3DS anniversary.



Joker dropped the same month Persona 5's direct sequel was announced for Switch.



Terry released 1 day before SNK Heroine's anniversary and right before SNK's 40th anniversary collection on the Switch came out.

If a theoretical announcement was made in December and the character dropped in February, for example, it would align with Xenosaga's anniversary. Out of any theory, focusing on significant game release dates makes sense since this is how several characters were revealed and promoted during Smash 4's prerelease.

Fwiw Banjo came out the same month Rare joined Microsoft. lmao
 
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Momotsuki

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The only leaks I've ever full-on believed are the ESRB leak and Ken leak, to be honest, though there's been plenty, most in fact, leaks that I'm neutral on. (For example, I think it's possible the Mii leak and doujin leak are real, but I'm not firm on that.)
 
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Cutie Gwen

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I honestly don't see any other way. Smash 6 (assuming it gets made, no matter when) is inevitably going to get comparisions to Ultimate. They'd need to walk a very tight rope when designing the game from scratch, on - likely - a new console / system. 6 needs to stand out in some form or fashion, no matter how difficult it is. And I doubt that Nintendo would like the complaints if 6's roster size was closer to Brawl's.

It's gonna be a long development cycle, that's for sure.
Yeah but there's an added step Ultimate never had to make, being different enough gameplay wise to justify the cuts. MVCI had a lot of issues but the gameplay wasn't one yet it didn't make up for the cut roster at all when people got their hands on the demo
 

ZelDan

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I mean it should realistically speaking. It's also the reason why I think these kinds of award shows should be done in January VS December.
Don't they have an award specifically for multiplayer games that are still going on or something? Like, didn't Overwatch win awards during a year past the year it actually launched or something?
 
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Momotsuki

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Don't they have an award specifically for multiplayer games that are still going on or something? Like, didn't Overwatch win awards during a year past the year it actually launched or something?
I'm pretty sure Ultimate is just as eligible as any other game that released in 2019.
You can't just say "oh well this game released near the end of the year so it's not eligible for that stuff, ever."
 

SKX31

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Yeah but there's an added step Ultimate never had to make, being different enough gameplay wise to justify the cuts. MVCI had a lot of issues but the gameplay wasn't one yet it didn't make up for the cut roster at all when people got their hands on the demo
I do agree there, that honestly makes me think Nintendo will only commit to a Smash 6 when they're sure they're ready. I'm just thinking that roster cuts are surviveable if, as said, the gameplay or other features are enticing enough. I do agree that it's going to be incredibly tough to do that, I guess I just want to have some hope.

Also, it's a massive shame that MVCI never got the planned roster (according to Filipino Champ).
 

Cutie Gwen

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I do agree there, that honestly makes me think Nintendo will only commit to a Smash 6 when they're sure they're ready. I'm just thinking that roster cuts are surviveable if, as said, the gameplay or other features are enticing enough. I do agree that it's going to be incredibly tough to do that, I guess I just want to have some hope.

Also, it's a massive shame that MVCI never got the planned roster (according to Filipino Champ).
There's another issue though, whatever this hypithetical reboot is, EVERYTHING needs to be changed. If it's turned into an arena fighter that needs to be taken into account. If it's traditional, same situation thrre

MVCI really needed like, 6 more months in the oven, not only would that improve the presentation but it'd have been released alongside Infinity War for full publicity
 

TriggerX

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Do you really think they can decide to switch a character they planned and agreed to have appear in November of last year with something else they had to have discussed much much later?

That's just poor business practices. You can't mess up planning like that, because what if the parent company of the fighter has plans made to coincide with that release? If you'll recall, there was a pretty big sale on a lot of NEO GEO games to celebrate the release of Terry last week. These releases are planned in advance, they can't just switch these character release schedules as they please.

Besides, their theory on the subject is based on the concept of Hayabusa and Doomguy being interchangeable because they would both have to be part of the same project plan. We already have 4 of the 5 fighters pass characters, so it doesn't make for sense something like that to happen anyways since there is only one fighter left.
I dont believe its outside the realm of possibility. I see where you are coming from on the marketing side of things, and timing is usually key. And I guess you have to consider violating contracts between all parties involved. However, operating a business still involves setting up contingency plans as well. Whether or not those games are on sale could just revolve around Terry's release. If that is the case, that sale would have just happened at a later date.
Its possible Nintendo has 2 characters being developed at a time, and if given enough time in advance can alternate the release of them. Or. the second known character in development is just a feint for the first.

Makes sense considering we knew a DQ rep, most likely "Erdick" was a dlc rep, before we got Joker.
 
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Droodle

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I'm pretty sure Ultimate is just as eligible as any other game that released in 2019.
You can't just say "oh well this game released near the end of the year so it's not eligible for that stuff, ever."
I'm pretty sure they did the exact same thing you said, with Xenoblade Chronicles 2 last year.

Now you could say that XC 2 didn't deserve to get nominated for best RPG, or best Soundtrack; but I'd disagree.

Ni No Kuni 2 was the most disappointing game I played in a long, long time and even it got nominated for best RPG.

For the record:
- XC 2 released on December 1 2017. The game awards were held a few days later; so it wasn't eligible for the 2017 awards.
- It wasn't in Game Awards 2018. I don't think they ever gave an explanation, but if they did it was probably "XC 2 came out in 2017 so it is not eligible for 2018".
 

Momotsuki

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They shouldn't try to one-up Ultimate with future installments. When DLC is all said and done there won't be anything able to besides a port with even more stuff. And honestly, I'm very doubtful they'd manage to get all of the third parties to agree a second time. If they decide to eventually leave Ultimate behind, trying to outdo it is gonna be a lost cause, and they should take a very different and new approach.
 

SKX31

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There's another issue though, whatever this hypithetical reboot is, EVERYTHING needs to be changed. If it's turned into an arena fighter that needs to be taken into account. If it's traditional, same situation thrre

MVCI really needed like, 6 more months in the oven, not only would that improve the presentation but it'd have been released alongside Infinity War for full publicity
Not arguing against that everything's going to be changed with Smash 6. I'm just a little cynical on this and expecting Nintendo's higher ups to eventually order a sequel to one of Nintendo's flagship titles. And they'll know they have a metaphorical Mount Everest to climb in that case.

And yeah, MVCI needed more time. Not sure if 61 characters feasible in 6 months, but at least 40 sounds semi-plausible. Dunno if that'd be enough.
 

Cutie Gwen

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Not arguing against that everything's going to be changed with Smash 6. I'm just a little cynical on this and expecting Nintendo's higher ups to eventually order a sequel to one of Nintendo's flagship titles. And they'll know they have a metaphorical Mount Everest to climb in that case.

And yeah, MVCI needed more time. Not sure if 61 characters feasible in 6 months, but at least 40 sounds semi-plausible. Dunno if that'd be enough.
My argument is that it just seems impossible to get a new style completely. At worst, I assume Smash 6 would just reuse everything, cut Hero and maybe a few others for business reasons and have them return as DLC alongside newcomers in the base roster. Hell, the case for Hero may not even have to happen depending on what happens to the rights after Sugiyama finally croaks as JASRAC could end up not being sble to force such high royalties under the new owner depending on how copyright law works in Japan
 

MooMew64

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Cuts are an inevitability for Smash's future. The game's own director basically confirmed whenever the next Smash happens to not expect it to be anywhere near this scale again. It's a miracle it even happened in the first place here in Ultimate.

It'll be a LOOOOONG ways away, though. Like, probably not for 10 or so years kinda long. TBH I'm not even sure it'll be headed by Sakurai anymore depending on how long it goes away. Nintendo's next console will more than likely continue with the Switch's core design, which will leave the door open for porting Ultimate, but we'll see how that goes. Porting the game indefinitely isn't really an option either: Eventually, the series is gonna have to move forward from Ultimate, and HOOOO boy are there gonna be fireworks when the inevitable cuts happen.
 
D

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Speaking of both Xenosaga and the Game Awards, has this been discussed here yet?

https://boards.4channel.org/v/thread/485133047

oh God leaker don’t do it. Don’t give me hope...

some similarities to Drunken Cat, two post pass peeps in development but unlike Drunken Cat, doesn’t say who they are
So here's my opinion on this leak.

Close out of 4chan.

You doing that yet? Okay good. Now never revisit that post ever again.
 
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Guybrush20X6

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Personally, I think that they should take the concept of Smash in a bit of a different direction. What that direction is however, I have no clue.

Should it be more casual like a Kart Racer? More hardcore like a Strategy game? Should it focus on giving a story to a few characters or should it go Gatcha mobile game nuts with the character and say nuts to story?
 

SKX31

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My argument is that it just seems impossible to get a new style completely. At worst, I assume Smash 6 would just reuse everything, cut Hero and maybe a few others for business reasons and have them return as DLC alongside newcomers in the base roster. Hell, the case for Hero may not even have to happen depending on what happens to the rights after Sugiyama finally croaks as JASRAC could end up not being sble to force such high royalties under the new owner depending on how copyright law works in Japan
I get the impression that Nintendo will try to get that new style, even if it winds up backfiring. Maybe I'm being a little too optimistic, but one could include for example air dashes, a revamped buffer system and perhaps something like stronger VR support, and one has a start. Not saying it's gonna be enough, but it's a start.

That's the thing though, it's only a start. If it took Sakurai years to get Brawl and Smash 4 going, then I see the same happening with Smash 6.
 

BZL8

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The thing I hope is that they scale back the runtime of the Game Awards. Last year was too long.
 

osby

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Personally, I think that they should take the concept of Smash in a bit of a different direction. What that direction is however, I have no clue.

Should it be more casual like a Kart Racer? More hardcore like a Strategy game? Should it focus on giving a story to a few characters or should it go Gatcha mobile game nuts with the character and say nuts to story?
I don't think you can get away with changing Smash's genre completely.

It works with games like Yakuza because of their narrative-driven nature, but Smash? People play it because it's a platform fighting game that openly encourages beginners to try it.

You can make a racing game with Nintendo characters and it would be successful, but it wouldn't be Smash anymore.
 

Plank08

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So how would the feels be if this happens...

Three years after Ultimate’s release, Nintendo announces a final video presentation. 10 characters have been released since the first fighter pass finished.

Sakurai recounts having started the production by promising Iwata to make the best Smash ever.

Sakurai shares some memories of developing Ultimate and how even though he thought he couldn’t continue, he did for the fans and Iwata’s memory

He then goes back and starts from the beginning when Smash 64 development and recounting Melee, Brawl, and 4. He focuses on just how much the games changed him and how it was a privilege to work on them.

He announces that all good things must come to an end and says Smash Ultimate is finally done and will cease additional content. Thanks the fans.

but then says “we have one more spot to fill”. This one is a gift from me to you.” He then presents the final character: the intended main character for “Dragon King”. Announces a special song intended for Dragon King made by Nobuo Uematsu as well as the same stage seen in the Prototype taken from HAL Laboratories of Mt Fuji is a stage. Stage is called “Legacy”. All of it is free.

Sakurai talks a bit about Dragon King and was sad he never could work on it but is overjoyed at what Smash has become. He shows how the character plays and goes into nostalgic mode. He then says he is saddened that this will be his last appearance in talking directly to fans about Smash.

Thanks everyone for two decades of playing Smash and wishes the future generations to pursue their love of video games and development.

He bows with a tear in his eye. He looks at the camera hesitatingly as if he doesn’t want to but swallows his fear and strengthens his resolve.

He pulls out a paper and signs on it. Placing in firmly on the desk, he swallows and his voice cracks. Sakurai then formally announces and tenders his retirement in front of the camera with Miyamoto personally receiving it.

He then stands up, one final bow, and leaves. The camera pans out and a single Kirby is shown sitting on the side of the desk which was hidden from view.

The screen fades and then shows the entire Smash cast from start to finish in a scrolling Melee intro-like cinematic before panning out and showing the entire cast jumping into the air and performing the up punch pose. Above them “Thank you, everyone!”


What would your feels rating be?
I would Bawl my eyes out, endgame level tears, and also Pocket Dragon King, I’m not sure if he would retire, but he will probably retire smash, and that would still make me cry
 
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