Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Iko MattOrr]

About the female fighting game character, the only one I can think of that's not Chun Li, is Honey/Candy from Fighting Vipers (SEGA though), who has also been transformed into a Sonic character and put in Sonic the Fighters as a cameo.

Anyway, I think that both leaks have some credibility, so I think that we should also consider the possibility that the female "fighting game" character could instead be Edelgard from the other leak.
The leaker does not seem to know the character, only that's female; maybe the leaker speculated it because he/she knows of a voice actress who worked on the character, and maybe that voice actress is more famous for a fighting game character. I know nothing, it's just a theory, but with a little research I found out that the same Japanese voice actress who voices Edelgard, also voices Yuri from Art of Fighing and SNK Heroines.

Not saying that it's exactly this case, it's just a possible scenario trying to consider both leaks as true.

 

[UberPyro64]

So people were digging up this guy's tweets and found this.
It's the same guy I brought up before that keep on saying a female fighting game character is coming as DLC.



I believe this is before Vergeben's 7SE lists come out.
What's interesting here is that this leaker was specifically saying that there will be no female alts for DQ Heroes.
I think no other leakers were saying that.
Fighting game character part was could be mentioning Ken but later he's saying "a female fighting game character for DLC".
Switch VR thing is kind of correct. But this was guessable.

What do you guys think?

It's Jill Valentine. Marvel Vs. Capcom 2 counts.

 

[Deleted member]

Regarding the 4chan leak with Joker, I need to explain that it is more likely fake due to being made like pretty much every ****ing fake leak to come from 4chan. You put 4 heavily speculated characters in the leak and one surprise pick that no one would've seen it coming.

During the time the leak was made, the speculation was around a FE rep, a Pokemon rep, any missing spirits (the game had leaked by then), Banjo since he survived the last direct and the SE pick due to Vergeben pushing it hard. So making a combination of 4 of these and adding a non expected character is not really that hard to make up, I can guarantee you that there should be a few with Banjo/Steve, a SE rep, a missing spirit and a Pokemon/FE rep plus a mystery character.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gun to my head, last two characters are Jill Valentine (w Chris, Leon , and Claire costumes) and Crash. Gut feeling.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

It's Jill Valentine. Marvel Vs. Capcom 2 counts.

Just because it does doesn't mean it's Jill specifically. Also, Negan is in Tekken 7 but you wouldn't say that makes him a "fighting game character".

Also Also, regarding the "suspiciously" missing Edleguard spirit, we'll have to wait for the release of Fire Emblem: Three Houses to know for sure. I can almost guarantee you she, Demitri and Claude will make their way to the spirit board then.

 

[Deleted member]

Now that I think about it, the female fighting game character could actually end up being Terry Bogard coming with a female alt from SNK Heroines. It supports the idea that there will be a Fighting game character and the female aspect to it as well.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Now that I think about it, the female fighting game character could actually end up being Terry Bogard coming with a female alt from SNK Heroines. It supports the idea that there will be a Fighting game character and the female aspect to it as well.

I would laugh if they did that. Not because it's a bad idea, but because the idea (and execution) of female Terry is just funny.

 

[Oblivion129]

Female fighting game characters I can think they'd include are mostly from SNK. I believe Nakoruru is popular.

I'd really like a Soul Calibur fighter or someone from ArcSys, though.

 

[Nquoid]

I've only worked through about 4 lists at the moment. But here's a list of the 40 most wanted characters that don't currently have spirits in the game (meaning there are a few 1st party picks in there):

Spoiler: Top 40 Wanted

1 Sora
2 Phoenix Wright
3 Crash Bandicoot
4 Steve
5 Doom Slayer
6 Lloyd Irving
7 Amaterasu
8 Master Chief
9 Dante
10 Spyro
11 Travis Touchdown
12 Hunter
13 Porky Minch
14 2B
15 Sans
16 Jibanyan
17 Professor Layton
18 Scorpion
19 Neku Sakuraba
20 Cuphead
21 Hollow Knight
22 Arle Nadja
23 Monokuma
24 Reimu
25 Heavy
26 Leon S. Kennedy
27 Lara Croft
28 Ryu Hayabusa
29 Crono
30 Klonoa
31 Heihachi
32 Sceptile/Groovyle
33 Decidueye
34 Quote
35 Solaire
36 Hat Kid
37 Frisk
38 Raiden
39 Agumon
40 Kazuma Kiryu

Feel free to send me any other ballots out there. I'd also love to include the Rate Their Chances thread from here if that was in any way feasible.

 

[Dragoncharystary]

How's Waluigi's popularity in Japan? I've heard it's not much compared to what he has elsewhere.

 

[Leotsune]

Just an unpopular opinion, but I don't think choosing a female character was an important factor while deciding the DLC, Nintendo probably had some female characters in the list they gave to Sakurai, but in the case he, for one or another reason, didn't pick any, I wouldn't make it that big of a deal.
Of course that would (and should) just be a funny fact, but nothing more than that.

 

[Oblivion129]

I completely forgot, but Darkstalkers is a fighting game. Morrigan could be the female fighting game character. It's also by Capcom, so it fits the Capcom-Namco theory. Just throwing this out there. Credit to RawstyleEevee for figuring this out.

 

[Impa4Smash]

It's Jill Valentine. Marvel Vs. Capcom 2 counts.

Good point. Capcom & Nintendo are really hyping RE on the switch too, so it would make sense. Plus, I'm sticking with the Mii Costume theory that the last 2 reps are from Bandai Namco & Capcom.

How's Waluigi's popularity in Japan? I've heard it's not much compared to what he has elsewhere.

Waaaah He's probably decent popular, but no way he's DLC unless there's a second fighter pass.

 

[Arcadenik]

So people were digging up this guy's tweets and found this.
It's the same guy I brought up before that keep on saying a female fighting game character is coming as DLC.

I believe this is before Vergeben's 7SE lists come out.
What's interesting here is that this leaker was specifically saying that there will be no female alts for DQ Heroes.
I think no other leakers were saying that.
Fighting game character part was could be mentioning Ken but later he's saying "a female fighting game character for DLC".
Switch VR thing is kind of correct. But this was guessable.

What do you guys think?

Female fighting game character?

It absolutely has to be Chun-Li. I would be surprised if it wasn’t her.

She is the first female fighting game character and is THE female fighting game character.

Capcom still doesn’t have a DLC character in Ultimate. She would also bring back the Capcom Mii Fighter costumes from SSB4.

Oh! It would be so awesome if she had both her original outfit and her Street Fighter Alpha costume!

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I completely forgot, but Darkstalkers is a fighting game. Morrigan could be the female fighting game character. It's also by Capcom, so it fits the Capcom-Namco theory. Just throwing this out there.

She's really the only fighting game specific character that isn't outclassed in notability by other characters.

EDIT: Yes there is Chun-Li but I don't think they'll go with her until the next game.

 

[KingBroly]

She's really the only fighting game specific character that isn't outclassed in notability by other characters.

EDIT: Yes there is Chun-Li but I don't think they'll go with her until the next game.

I don't think they'd go with Chun-Li at this point, or any other Street Fighter character for that matter. If you do a female fighter, it'd be Ivy, Mai or Kasumi, and I can't see any of them ever making it.

 

[N3ON]

Relax Alax did actually predict Joker though, he wasn’t just a want. He brought up tons of evidence for him in one video and then made a “told you so...” video after the reveal. This is why I don’t think Joker was as crazy as most believed.

Having a loud voice in the fanbase doesn't mean you speak for more than just yourself.

We had tons of reasoning from Sakurai’s interests to the literal design of Smash’s menus and the red, white, and black vibrant colors that highlight most of Smash. This title was big on copying Persona’s design and aesthetic, so it really wasn’t much of a stretch to believe Persona, a potential Game Awards winner, would be included in Smash eventually.

Well, first of all... Sakurai doesn't design the menus... his wife does. Second, Ultimate's menus are closer to past Smash menus than Persona's... and the red, white and black has been the colour scheme of Versus mode since Brawl. But there are lots of modes with their own colour schemes. There hasn't really been a unified colour scheme since Melee. All of this sounds like a pretty big stretch tbh.

Most importantly, arguing in favour of Joker's chances is a totally different than arguing how widely anticipated he was.

Here.
Edit: Quote didn't work. Fixed it.

Got it, thank you!

Very interesting... but it's somewhat hard to believe, if only because the number of truly prolific female fighting game characters that are plausible seem limited to... Chun Li and... maybe... Morrigan? There are some other sort of well-known ones like Sophitia, Ivy, Nina Williams, etc. but it's really not Smash's style to take anyone but the face/most prolific third-party of the series. Chun Li only eschews this because Ryu is already in.

I mean... maybe Mai squeaks by, but characters like Nakoruru, Ruby Heart, or virtually anyone from Arc System Works is going to be too obscure.

I dunno. It doesn't really make sense imo.

 

[Nekoo]

People expecting Chun-Li doesn't realize the hell that will be to do a charge motion in Smash.
Don't put me through this hell Online.
I beg you.
Please.
Sakurai.

 

[Nightguything]

I firmly believe that spirits deconfirm characters, so I don’t see Chun li making it in.

I do think that the next reps will be from Capcom and Bamco. The question is how big of a pool are they pulling from.

My guess -
Capcom:
RE character
Amaterasu
Viewtiful joe

Bamco:
Tekken character
Tales character
Kos-Mos

 

[RileyXY1]

I don't think that we're guaranteed to get a Capcom character and a Namco Bandai character.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

The way I see it, Okami is stuck in line behind the Devil May Cry, Monster Hunter, Pheonix Wright, and possibly the Ghosts N' Goblins and Darkstalkers series in terms of representation. Unless the next lead developer really wants her in I don't see Amaterasu getting in for at least two or three games.

Though I'm happy to be wrong.

I don't think that we're guaranteed to get a Capcom character and a Namco Bandai character.

Agreed.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Darkstalkers has been ignored for over 20 years aside from ports and Morrigan in MvC. No chance a character from there gets in Smash with the near lack of demand there is.

 

[RileyXY1]

In my opinion, there aren't a lot of female fighting game characters that aren't either obscure or have better options for characters from their series.

 

[Nemuresu]

I have to probably play Devil's Advocate on good ol' Morrigan. She's still one of Capcom's most prominent characters (other being Ryu, Mega Man, Chun-Li, Zero and Dante), and that alone already makes her stand out. Not to mention, there's still demand for a new Darkstalkers to be made.

Of course, the character could also be Nakoruru, Athena Asamiya or Sophitia, but I wouldn't count Morrigan out yet.

Also, I want new Darkstalkers remixes by Tetsuya Shibata (the OG composer), so a bit more bias from me,

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I've only worked through about 4 lists at the moment. But here's a list of the 40 most wanted characters that don't currently have spirits in the game (meaning there are a few 1st party picks in there):

Spoiler: Top 40 Wanted

1 Sora
2 Phoenix Wright
3 Crash Bandicoot
4 Steve
5 Doom Slayer
6 Lloyd Irving
7 Amaterasu
8 Master Chief
9 Dante
10 Spyro
11 Travis Touchdown
12 Hunter
13 Porky Minch
14 2B
15 Sans
16 Jibanyan
17 Professor Layton
18 Scorpion
19 Neku Sakuraba
20 Cuphead
21 Hollow Knight
22 Arle Nadja
23 Monokuma
24 Reimu
25 Heavy
26 Leon S. Kennedy
27 Lara Croft
28 Ryu Hayabusa
29 Crono
30 Klonoa
31 Heihachi
32 Sceptile/Groovyle
33 Decidueye
34 Quote
35 Solaire
36 Hat Kid
37 Frisk
38 Raiden
39 Agumon
40 Kazuma Kiryu

Feel free to send me any other ballots out there. I'd also love to include the Rate Their Chances thread from here if that was in any way feasible.

I have the RTC data as of before E3, though we are in the process of doing some rerates (Shameless plug: go look at the scores and state what three characters you think are overrated and underrated in the thread everyone, make sure to read all the posts ^_^)

Some passive observations I can give
1. The highest scoring character in RTC by a good margin right now in Want is Bandanna Dee. He also is the highest in chance, but this score is pre joker and he most likely will be considered among the most overrated. I expect his want will remain high, but he ain't likely.
2. Since RTC is democratic, I often feel a character getting above a 50% want is a decent sign, though sometimes characters can get very controversial. For example, before E3 last year Rex and Pyra were seen as super likley, but had an average want score of only ~45%. This was partly due to another problem I will state with RTC scores, but it also has to do with polarized characters. I remember Crash for instance used to be more controversial, with around a 50% Want. Nowadays he is at over 77%!
3. RTC can often bring in character supporters who will actively support their character, which can lead to inflation potentially. One of the most intense examples of this was pre e3 last year with Elma. Not only did the Elma supporters have a bit of an issue with Rex and Pyra, they came and made sure Elma was in the top 5 of want, which was unexpected. After rerates she fell, but the point is support bases can come as a blessing or curse to characters.
4. RTC is an average, and statistically it ain't great. Participation has slowed down a bit from our earlier days, so the number of people in these averages can be low. Furthermore, whether this is a representative sample of the smash fanbase is a whole different issue. I like to say yes, but we are noticably more invested in Smash than the average person due to the nature of this site.
5. Only a small handfull of characters have above a 60% want. The lowest I would say for a character to be seen as generally wanted would be around 55%.

That being said, you are more than welcome to use any data from RTC as a source, just know its limitations. Also do not be afraid of participating. It is always great to see new faces.

 

[RileyXY1]

Using RTC as a way to gauge popularity is a bad idea because the data is biased. Not all Smash fans are users of this site.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Using RTC as a way to gauge popularity is a bad idea because the data is biased. Not all Smash fans are users of this site.

Exactly. At best we can be argued as a representative sample of smash fans, given the diverse interests of the thread. While we are more invested in smash given the nature of this site, it can be argued that while our data is not without bias, the potential for us to be a representative sample overrides that.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Regarding my previous post, the more I think about it, the "female fighting game character" can only hold true for a few options. I doubt they would go for any character that isn't "the face" of a series - a protagonist. So far I think the only case in all of Smash history where this happened is Pikachu, and that's because despite not being a protagonist, he's still a mascot.

In face of that, only four really seem to make sense:

Morrigan would be... an interesting pick. But I don't know how much demand she has - both inside and outside the Smash community. I don't think her series being in limbo is a problem - we've danced to this song before - but the problem is how much people would want her.

Ruby Heart is even worse. Her series is technically Marvel Vs. Capcom - which raises a series of questions about how the hell a deal would even be possible, because Nintendo would need material from MvC to go along with her in the FP. I don't think it's happening.

Athena is interesting, because while she isn't the protagonist of the fighting game she appears in, she is the protagonist of her own series. That said, I severely doubt people are clamoring for Psycho Soldier to join Smash, of all things.

Sophitia is a bit of a stretch, but Soul Calibur is strange in the sense that even the fandom seems confused as to who is the protagonist of each game - and Sophitia seems to fit the bill for some. That said, while she has the best chance out of those four... I don't know if Sakurai would do it. He discarded Heihachi before because he was unable to think of a way to translate the 3D gameplay of Tekken to Smash in a faithful way, and the same problem would probably happen with Soul Calibur.

However, if the japanese leaker meant "a female character that appeared in a fighting game" instead of "a female fighting game character", that might open up new possibilities, like Jill, as some people have said. A Ayumi Tachibana , what is the possibility of this being the case? I don't understand japanese and the nuaces of it, so could you confirm that for us?

If the leaker really meant what was in that post, then... I'm at a loss, really.

 

[Nquoid]

I have the RTC data as of before E3, though we are in the process of doing some rerates (Shameless plug: go look at the scores and state what three characters you think are overrated and underrated in the thread everyone, make sure to read all the posts ^_^)

Some passive observations I can give
1. The highest scoring character in RTC by a good margin right now in Want is Bandanna Dee. He also is the highest in chance, but this score is pre joker and he most likely will be considered among the most overrated. I expect his want will remain high, but he ain't likely.
2. Since RTC is democratic, I often feel a character getting above a 50% want is a decent sign, though sometimes characters can get very controversial. For example, before E3 last year Rex and Pyra were seen as super likley, but had an average want score of only ~45%. This was partly due to another problem I will state with RTC scores, but it also has to do with polarized characters. I remember Crash for instance used to be more controversial, with around a 50% Want. Nowadays he is at over 77%!
3. RTC can often bring in character supporters who will actively support their character, which can lead to inflation potentially. One of the most intense examples of this was pre e3 last year with Elma. Not only did the Elma supporters have a bit of an issue with Rex and Pyra, they came and made sure Elma was in the top 5 of want, which was unexpected. After rerates she fell, but the point is support bases can come as a blessing or curse to characters.
4. RTC is an average, and statistically it ain't great. Participation has slowed down a bit from our earlier days, so the number of people in these averages can be low. Furthermore, whether this is a representative sample of the smash fanbase is a whole different issue. I like to say yes, but we are noticably more invested in Smash than the average person due to the nature of this site.
5. Only a small handfull of characters have above a 60% want. The lowest I would say for a character to be seen as generally wanted would be around 55%.

That being said, you are more than welcome to use any data from RTC as a source, just know its limitations. Also do not be afraid of participating. It is always great to see new faces.

Many thanks, some of the lists I've used so far are explicitly post launch so are focused on DLC lineup, but in an ideal world I'll go back further to see whether certain characters have been requested for longer.

Exactly. At best we can be argued as a representative sample of smash fans, given the diverse interests of the thread. While we are more invested in smash given the nature of this site, it can be argued that while our data is not without bias, the potential for us to be a representative sample overrides that.

Exactly this, the formula I'm using benefits from more sources. As long as there's some aggregation going on it's useful. The more sources I have, the more accurate a feel for what the community want/feels is likely will have a chance to rise to the top. Even if not every member of the Smash community is on this site, or in that thread, as long as I keep on adding lists with decent participation it'll aggregate up at the end.

What I don't want to be doing is taking individual people's ballots, because that is where the bias really lies.

 

[dezeray112]

Anyways here is my prediction for the release dates for the remaining fighters within the pass:

- Hero (Dragon Quest) - July/August release.
- Banjo-Kazooie - October/November release.
- Fighter #4 reveal - September
- Fighter #5 reveal - December

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Going by the female thing

If would b chun-li but two problems first is ken and chun-li is a spirit already


I see either Morrigan

Or the one no one is thinking about is Jill valentine she was in mvc2 and mvc3 and resident evil is a very big series thnleak said nothing about it has to be a character that was born in a fighting game

I think crash bandicoot my be be the last one he’s ben coming back recently and also bring back the trifecta during the era of best video games when all 3 were rivals to each other

I can already picture a trailer involving racing with go karts or a K. Rool style trailer but with third party characters instead

 

[RileyXY1]

I think that we are most likely getting a Bethesda character in the pass. We know that Nintendo asked them about Smash already.

 

[GameWatching]

I think that we are most likely getting a Bethesda character in the pass. We know that Nintendo asked them about Smash already.

It's the opposite.

 

[dezeray112]

I have to probably play Devil's Advocate on good ol' Morrigan. She's still one of Capcom's most prominent characters (other being Ryu, Mega Man, Chun-Li, Zero and Dante), and that alone already makes her stand out. Not to mention, there's still demand for a new Darkstalkers to be made.

Of course, the character could also be Nakoruru, Athena Asamiya or Sophitia, but I wouldn't count Morrigan out yet.

Also, I want new Darkstalkers remixes by Tetsuya Shibata (the OG composer), so a bit more bias from me,

I feel the same, a new Darkstalkers game would be something refreshing for Capcom. Either ways, SNK were able to revive Samurai Shodown and I hope that Darkstalkers will do the same (maybe this year as it is their 25th anniversary?)

Anyways, if not Chun-Li, then Morrigan may possibly fit the bill even though not many will be familiar with her series.

 

[ButterGeek]

After too many hours and too much wasted effort I have created a mockup of a promotional fighter's pass image that illustrates in my opinion the best possible spenario right now

https://imgur.com/a/Zn2nF9s

(I took elements from many different sources, the face for Steve was taken from jaredcamp83 on Blend Swap)

 

[WaddleMatt]

After too many hours and too much wasted effort I have created a mockup of a promotional fighter's pass image that illustrates in my opinion the best possible spenario right now

https://imgur.com/a/Zn2nF9s

(I took elements from many different sources, the face for Steve was taken from jaredcamp83 on Blend Swap)

God, that Steve render is horrible.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I have no idea why some of you are sleeping on Jill valentine for the Japanese rumor thing

She may not be a fighting game character but she did make appearances in fighting games as playable

 

[RileyXY1]

I think that Leon would be more likely to get in if we are getting a Resident Evil character

 

[merchantofsalt]

I think Jill is very likely, but why would they leak her as "a female fighting game character" instead of "a female horror game character"? To throw people off?

 

[RileyXY1]

I don't think that we're guaranteed to get a Resident Evil character anyways.