Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Capybara Gaming]

Turns out, that 5Chan leak (which claims that the remaining 4 DLC characters are Erdrick, Steve, Ryu Hayabusa, and Doomguy) is fake. The leaker got Erdrick's Japanese name wrong.

http://boards.4channel.org/v/thread/451954548

YES. IT'S FINALLY DEAD!

 

[RileyXY1]

Seriously? How could that have gone unnoticed for so long? Anyway, I think Erdrick and Steve are still on the table, due to Vergeben/Hitagi's remarks.

Their credibility is down the toilet. Hitagi is an absolute joke and Verge botched last week's direct.

 

[Door Key Pig]

So does that combined with the female Joker thing mean Erdrick is off the table?

 

[MG_3989]

So now that Microsoft is coming to Switch I find it hard to believe that we won’t get at least one Microsoft character in the DLC pack (Banjo plz)

 

[Gazorpazorpfield]

So does that combined with the female Joker thing mean Erdrick is off the table?

Depends how you look at it I guess. Vergeben would be Erdrick's main source of credibility, if you believe him. I still do, for the most part, so I still think he's got a good chance at getting in.

So now that Microsoft is coming to Switch I find it hard to believe that we won’t get at least one Microsoft character in the DLC pack (Banjo plz)

There was some talk a while back about Brave possibly referring to Banjo and Kazooie, given the height stat, slippery turnaround animation, and other factors. I could see it happening.

 

[RileyXY1]

Depends how you look at it I guess. Vergeben would be Erdrick's main source of credibility, if you believe him. I still do, for the most part, so I still think he's got a good chance at getting in.



There was some talk a while back about Brave possibly referring to Banjo and Kazooie, given the height stat, slippery turnaround animation, and other factors. I could see it happening.

Banjo does not fit the height stat though.

 

[MG_3989]

Depends how you look at it I guess. Vergeben would be Erdrick's main source of credibility, if you believe him. I still do, for the most part, so I still think he's got a good chance at getting in.



There was some talk a while back about Brave possibly referring to Banjo and Kazooie, given the height stat, slippery turnaround animation, and other factors. I could see it happening.

I really hope so. That would be awesome to see. Banjo Kazooie was my first video game ever and will always be synonymous with Nintendo for me

 

[Sari]

I'm out of the loop: did the whole idea of Ryu/Doomguy/Steve being DLC start from the supposed 5Chan "leak" or was it just a reiteration of stuff Vergeben said in the past?

 

[RileyXY1]

I'm out of the loop: did the whole idea of Ryu/Doomguy/Steve being DLC start from the supposed 5Chan "leak" or was it just a reiteration of stuff Vergeben said in the past?

Steve and Erdrick mostly come from Verge's comments. Doomguy and Ryu Hayabusa were never implicated by Verge. The leak is fake anyways.

 

[Deleted member]

It's looking good for MS characters on Smash, but it could also be a different issue. Its pretty much a wait and see situation considering that MS focus with the gamepass thing as a service is to bring it to as many platforms as possible. One source mentioning the rumor even mentioned that MS also was aiming to release it on PS4:
https://www.windowscentral.com/why-xbox-game-pass-nintendo-switch-and-other-systems-smart

It's quite an interesting development from MS, not so unexpected due to Phil previous comments and it looks like the future focus for the Xbox brand might be streaming.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Well that’s it then

But Steve and Edrick are far from being off the table though

Did the data miners really spot a female joker alt in the data mine of smash I know female joker exist from persona 5 dlc

I’m back to sans as a possible for dlc

 

[TheCJBrine]

Banjo does not fit the height stat though.

He does if it's only slightly shorter than Mario. Banjo is small for a bear. He's shorter than other bears and some humans in his games. He's even shorter than a frog.

However, I'm not sure Banjo-Kazooie will be brave; I see them being announced at E3 as more-likely.

Well that’s it then

But Steve and Edrick are fat from being off the table though

Did the data miners really spot a female joker alt in the data mine of smash I know female joker exist from persona 5 dlc

yeah they saw something that seemed to be for an alt. costume of Joker, but with a ponytail, as the string had "pony" and "hair."

 

[Sari]

Steve and Erdrick mostly come from Verge's comments. Doomguy and Ryu Hayabusa were never implicated by Verge. The leak is fake anyways.

If that's the case then yeah I think it's just about over for Doomguy and Hayabusa (or at least they're back to square one). Honestly I had suspicions the leak was fake since I just couldn't see Ryu Hayabusa being DLC.

 

[SirCamp]

I've figured it out guys.

Brave is an anagram of Bear V.

Who is a bear? Banjo.

How many games does Banjo Kazooie have? 5. 2 on N64, 2 on gameboy advance (apparently banjo pilot is a thing), and one we don't talk about.

Banjo is coming!







/s

 

[CureParfait]

Turns out, that 5Chan leak (which claims that the remaining 4 DLC characters are Erdrick, Steve, Ryu Hayabusa, and Doomguy) is fake. The leaker got Erdrick's Japanese name wrong.

http://boards.4channel.org/v/thread/451954548

I had a feeling that leak was fake all along and glad it is fake because it would of been a meh DLC pack if it was real.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

But Steve and Edrick are fat from being off the table though

At least they're not fat from being on the table.

I'm glad the leak is fake though. People tend to have a negative reception to characters they believe to be inevitable. I also agree that Erdrick and Steve aren't disconfirmed because of this either since they still have the same chances as they did before the leak (of which are reasonably high).

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Am I the only one here who still feels Steve and Erdrick are at this point the most guaranteed. Like really I'm really confident they'll be 2 of the 4 remaining DLC fighters.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Steve and dragon quest rep is still likely

I’m in the realm of banjo and kazooie, sans and crash bandicoot as the other packs

 

[BlondeLombax]

Their credibility is down the toilet. Hitagi is an absolute joke and Verge botched last week's direct.

I always had that feeling in my gut.

I never trust leakers to their fullest extent, ever. No matter how many things you get right, you're bound to screw up a majority of the time. This is a lesson that fans everywhere need to learn.

 

[Luigifan18]

I always had that feeling in my gut.

I never trust leakers to their fullest extent, ever. No matter how many things you get right, you're bound to screw up a majority of the time. This is a lesson that fans everywhere need to learn.

My personal opinion is that all leakers are suicidal morons. Glory on the Internet is not worth losing your job, losing all possibility of future employment, and being sued. This is not a concept that anybody with an IQ over 50 should have any difficulty whatsoever with comprehending.

 

[Ornl]

Am I the only one here who still feels Steve and Erdrick are at this point the most guaranteed. Like really I'm really confident they'll be 2 of the 4 remaining DLC fighters.

No ^^

Top 5 of last forecast average of third party fighters on RTC thread :
- Steve ≈ 57%
- Lloyd Irving ≈ 48%
- Pr. Layton ≈ 35%
- Phoenix Wright ≈ 33%
- Erdrick ≈ 29%

Today, Erdrick should easily take Lloyd's place. If Smash is looking for an "ultimate" RPG, it would be Dragon Quest.
• Top 20 favorite RPG by Famitsu readers :
- Final Fantasy appears 7 times,
- Persona 3,
- Dragon Quest 3,
- Xenosaga 2.
• Top 10 favorite games on all supports by Famitsu readers :
- Final Fantasy appears 17 times,
- Dragon Quest 12,
- Pokemon 9,
- Megami Tensei 9 (including Persona and Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE, excluding the current favorite game Persona 5),
- Sakura Taisen 5,
- Fire Emblem 3 (including Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE),
- Xenosaga 3,
- Tales 3 (including Project X Zone).
- Gods Eater 3 (including Project X Zone).
- Mother 2,
- Drakengard 2 (including Nier Replicant, excluding the current 4th favorite game NieR: Automata),
- SaGa 2,
- Shining 2 (including Project X Zone).
- Golden Sun 1.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

RTC doesn't mean much. It's purely opinions.

Besides that, that's a lot of opinions moreso than things that are a bit more concrete, like actual sales(which are a more indication of what series is doing better).

Dragon Quest doesn't need having some people like it to justify having a character at all. It has the legacy of the first major Console RPG(that is, on a regular console like Nintendo's) and its legacy eventually brought us tons of rpg's, including Pokemon. That's all it needs. It has a major gaming history, which is enough to choose a character. Erdrick won't really take Lloyd's spot overall due to the fact Lloyd is more known worldwide. That's a huge boon on who is more popular. The one who is known more. Erdrick being the major hero of the series is enough on its own to justify being chosen. Popularity isn't everything, anyway.

 

[Ornl]

RTC doesn't mean much. It's purely opinions..

I answered the question correctly : "Am I the only one here who still feels Steve and Erdrick are at this point the most guaranteed".
The opinion of the forum was asked, so I replied concerning about an opinion survey on the forum.

________

"Well, you think about it… I’m pretty sure that they… all the characters in Smash at least have some game on a Nintendo platform, right ?”
Kamiya Itsuno (Devil May Cray boss) said after a bit of a chuckle. There’s Cloud Strife from Final Fantasy 7 too, he notes, but as Itsuno points out, Cloud at least represents a series with a rich history on Nintendo.
https://www.vg247.com/2019/02/07/dante-smash-bros-devil-may-cry-switch/

According to him, Dante, 2B (≈ 21% RTC), Reimu Hakurei (≈ 16%), KOS-MOS (≈ 7%), Katalina (≈ 4,5%), Master Chief (≈ 4%), Nero Claudius (≈ 1,5%) and Sakura Shinguji (≈ 1%) are impossible. RTC indications are noted to compare the different opinions of the survey.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I answered the question correctly : "Am I the only one here who still feels Steve and Erdrick are at this point the most guaranteed".
The opinion of the forum was asked, so I replied concerning about an opinion survey on the forum.

________

"Well, you think about it… I’m pretty sure that they… all the characters in Smash at least have some game on a Nintendo platform, right ?”
Kamiya Itsuno (Devil May Cray boss) said after a bit of a chuckle. There’s Cloud Strife from Final Fantasy 7 too, he notes, but as Itsuno points out, Cloud at least represents a series with a rich history on Nintendo.
https://www.vg247.com/2019/02/07/dante-smash-bros-devil-may-cry-switch/

According to him, Dante, 2B (≈ 21% RTC), Reimu Hakurei (≈ 16%), KOS-MOS (≈ 7%), Katalina (≈ 4,5%), Master Chief (≈ 4%), Nero Claudius (≈ 1,5%) and Sakura Shinguji (≈ 1%) are impossible. RTC indications are noted to compare the different opinions of the survey.

Neither of them are actually Sakurai nor speak for him. That's their personal opinion, but does not reflect in any way how Sakurai chooses his DLC. He doesn't care strictly about Nintendo history, nor was that in any way related to Cloud. It was Final Fantasy being a mega franchise that led him to want a character from it. The idea of "if Cloud wasn't on a Nintendo system, would he still be in?" was something that never came up when he made his choice, and his only response was "I dunno". We can't even say if Nintendo actually cares that the character had a Nintendo appearance first. Maybe? Probably more than Sakurai, who really really doesn't care. But might not be enough to even matter. Coincidentally most of the big choices happen to appear on Nintendo systems as is. Also, Reimu has had an official Nintendo appearance as is. Sure, they're fangames, but they're officially licensed Nintendo ones. Ironically ZUN prefers the fangames to be spread out compared to his own, which he wants to keep on PC only. Fangames? They can go wherever they want. He's a strange developer.

Though I did miss some of the context, people are still falsely under the impression that having a Nintendo history or even appearance is somehow a requirement. It never was. It's a courtesy. No more, no less. There's actual real factors like whether or not the other company would say yes(which with a character who is never going to have a Nintendo appearance, for companies like Sony and Microsoft, this could be seen as a bad business decision, since they're in competition with Nintendo). But that doesn't apply for other 3rd party companies in the same way. Sure, they might only care enough to get their character in if it means advertisement. But that doesn't mean they'll say no when approached to even have them in. It's still character exposure, and having your character in Smash is a pretty big deal alone(since Smash is just that huge).

 

[Ornl]

people are still falsely under the impression that having a Nintendo history or even appearance is somehow a requirement. It never was. It's a courtesy. No more, no less.

100% of 78 fighters, 59 Assist Trophee, 1303 Spirits and Mii Costumes come from licenses already released on Nintendo.
100% of third-party fighters come from licenses with their first opus released on Nintendo.
Today, Smash remains a Nintendo museum.

 

[Ovaltine]

100% of 78 fighters, 59 Assist Trophee, 1303 Spirits and Mii Costumes come from licenses already released on Nintendo.
100% of third-party fighters come from licenses with their first opus released on Nintendo.
Today, Smash remains a Nintendo museum.

Yet with DLC on the horizon, Sakurai has gone on record to say that being on a Nintendo console in the past is just a courtesy now, not a necessity. The implication is that this could very well change.

It's nice that you tend to focus on statistics, but they shouldn't be the end-all be-all of your argument. There is more nuance to these things than numbers.

 

[Ornl]

Yet with DLC on the horizon, Sakurai has gone on record to say that being on a Nintendo console in the past is just a courtesy now, not a necessity. The implication is that this could very well change.

It's nice that you tend to focus on statistics, but they shouldn't be the end-all be-all of your argument. There is more nuance to these things than numbers.

Dante, 2B, Reimu Hakurei, KOS-MOS, Katalina, Master Chief, Nero Claudius and Sakura Shinguji don't come from licenses already released on Nintendo. Dante's already disconfirmed. 2B, KOS-MOS, Katalina, Nero Claudius and Sakura Shinguji come from RPG games, like Joker and probably Brave. Reimu Hakurei and Master Chief stays. Personally, I pronounce myself by betting that the characters who don't come from licenses already released on Nintendo will not be the Fighters of the next DLC.

If each answer is to reject statistics and different surveys with the argument of Sakurai's authority, what is the purpose of this thread ? To say "No!" ?

I think that every details can count. I share details.

 

[Ovaltine]

If each answer is to reject statistics and different surveys with the argument of Sakurai's authority, what is the purpose of this thread ? To say "No!" ?

I think that every details can count. I share details.

I'm not saying that they don't count. They absolutely do. With that said, though, Sakurai's authority is also important, given he's... the head of Smash Brothers to begin with. I'm not rejecting what you're saying; I'm proposing that you look at things from all angles. This DLC cycle is crazier than all the ones before it already. We really cannot discount anything.

 

[Gazorpazorpfield]

Dante, 2B, Reimu Hakurei, KOS-MOS, Katalina, Master Chief, Nero Claudius and Sakura Shinguji don't come from licenses already released on Nintendo. Dante's already disconfirmed. 2B, KOS-MOS, Katalina, Nero Claudius and Sakura Shinguji come from RPG games, like Joker and probably Brave. Reimu Hakurei and Master Chief stays. Personally, I pronounce myself by betting that the characters who don't come from licenses already released on Nintendo will not be the Fighters of the next DLC.

If each answer is to reject statistics and different surveys with the argument of Sakurai's authority, what is the purpose of this thread ? To say "No!" ?

I think that every details can count. I share details.

Master Chief has also been disconfirmed, by Frank O'Connor. With your list, Reimu would remain as the most likely candidate. I can see how the 'courtesy' Sakurai mentioned may indicate who is and who isn't likely to get in.

 

[Door Key Pig]

Master Chief has also been disconfirmed, by Frank O'Connor. With your list, Reimu would remain as the most likely candidate. I can see how the 'courtesy' Sakurai mentioned may indicate who is and who isn't likely to get in.

Don't forget Travis Touchdown's creator deconfirming him for Ultimate!

 

[Dukemon]

I doubt that any Microsoft IP will have a FighterPass 1 Slot. Rumors about Nintendo and Xbox want to team up are very young Rumors and best time to announce the truth will be on the E3 Stage. This means there would not be enough time for the development of a fighter for Smash.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Master Chief has also been disconfirmed, by Frank O'Connor. With your list, Reimu would remain as the most likely candidate. I can see how the 'courtesy' Sakurai mentioned may indicate who is and who isn't likely to get in.

Don't forget Travis Touchdown's creator deconfirming him for Ultimate!

So as far as developers disconfirming characters we have:
Master Chief
Travis
Shantae (Basically)
All of the Platinum Characters (Probably)
Dante (Specifically)

I think that just leaves us with Steve (Minecraft), Dragonborn (The Elder Scrolls: Skyrim), Banjo & Kazooie (Banjo & Kazooie), Heihachi (Tekken), Lloyd (Tales of Symphonia), Ryu (Ninja Gaiden) Sora (Kingdom Hearts 3), and Erdrick (Dragon Quest III). On the latter two I worry about them getting the bear minimum treatment like Final Fantasy VII did.

 

[Ornl]

Shantae (Basically)

Are you sure ? My last piece of information was that Shantae had an estimated 9% chance according to RTC (like Chorus kid and Amaterasu).

I think that just leaves us with Steve (Minecraft), Dragonborn (The Elder Scrolls: Skyrim), Banjo & Kazooie (Banjo & Kazooie), Heihachi (Tekken), Lloyd (Tales of Symphonia), Ryu (Ninja Gaiden) Sora (Kingdom Hearts 3), and Erdrick (Dragon Quest III).

Banjo & Kazooie : a 2sd Rare creation rep ? Lloyd & Heihachi : a Costume Mii upgrade ? No new non-Echo Capcom rep ? No Level-5 rep ? ^^

 

[Gazorpazorpfield]

I think that just leaves us with Steve (Minecraft), Dragonborn (The Elder Scrolls: Skyrim), Banjo & Kazooie (Banjo & Kazooie), Heihachi (Tekken), Lloyd (Tales of Symphonia), Ryu (Ninja Gaiden) Sora (Kingdom Hearts 3), and Erdrick (Dragon Quest III). On the latter two I worry about them getting the bear minimum treatment like Final Fantasy VII did.

Unless I'm misunderstanding your point, we surely have more options than those characters, as third party picks go. We could get characters from Resident Evil, Touhou, DOOM, Nier, Soul Calibur, Monster Hunter, Any number of Indie games, or even just Nintendo characters nobody is talking about. I'm not sure we can distill the number of potential characters into any small group. I mean, who would have predicted Joker as the first dlc character?

 

[Ornl]

who would have predicted Joker as the first dlc character?

The Japaneses :
here,
here,
and here... ^^

 

[Door Key Pig]

The Japaneses :
here,
here,
and here... ^^

You're reminding me of that one person claiming to have seen his inclusion coming in this video...

 

[starwoof]

Like many others, a rep from Dragon Quest is very likely, as it's a broad series that would enter Smash's ever-widening roster and they hit the Switch last year with a new game IIRC. Really don't want Steve as a rep, Master Chief or just about anything else from Microsoft would be good. Banjo and Kazooie would be a great pick and could function like a Duckhunt that's actually good. Sephiroth, I'm just dreaming, though if he came it would add some more tracks to the sorely lacking 2 Let the Battles Begin! and Fight on in the soundtrack. I even made a list of fan specials for him that would jump him up in the tiers but not warrant nerfs. though he would get nerfed anyway

Not sure about the first pack, but if Sakurai decides on a second, an Assist Trophy conversion thing would be appreciated. Shadow (Sonic Echo), Zero (modified Mega Man echo... but with that really cool sword), Ghirahim (all-original), Gray Fox (same), Black Knight (possible Ike echo?) are just a few I can think of that would be insane fun to play.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Are you sure ? My last piece of information was that Shantae had an estimated 9% chance according to RTC (like Chorus kid and Amaterasu).

I could be wrong on this one but I think Wayforward would have known Shantae was a DLC character when they started their campaign if she was actually DLC. It is an assumption on my part, but I think it's a fairly reasonable one.

Banjo & Kazooie : a 2sd Rare creation rep ? Lloyd & Heihachi : a Costume Mii upgrade ? No new non-Echo Capcom rep ? No Level-5 rep ? ^^

I don't understand what your first point means and what your second point has to do with anything. I did overlook the Residant Evil franchise (I don't think we'd get a character from Ghosts n' Goblins or Phoenix Wright as DLC). I don't pay attention to Level-5, though I guess Jibanyan would be a good pick for the Japanese audience.

Unless I'm misunderstanding your point, we surely have more options than those characters, as third party picks go. We could get characters from Resident Evil, Touhou, DOOM, Nier, Soul Calibur, Monster Hunter, Any number of Indie games, or even just Nintendo characters nobody is talking about. I'm not sure we can distill the number of potential characters into any small group. I mean, who would have predicted Joker as the first dlc character?

There isn't really a point. It's just conjecture on my part. As such the characters I mentioned were the ones I could "see happening" as well as the ones I remembered at the time. My thoughts on characters mostly stem from how familiar I am with them so my words are pretty meaningless unless they're interesting enough to start a conversation.

EDIT: Also I was speaking purely in terms of 3rd party characters. I don't have much to say on Nintendo characters since I think that the character we get from Nintendo (if we get one at all) will be the gen 8 Pokémon we don't even know about yet.

 

[BlondeLombax]

Are you sure ? My last piece of information was that Shantae had an estimated 9% chance according to RTC (like Chorus kid and Amaterasu).

*Snorts in Spy*

 

[Flyboy]

The RTC thread is fun but it's a laugh, nothing more. The Smash fandom is horrendously myopic and has no idea what's coming unless actually leaked. We are notoriously bad at predicting things because so many of us get hooked on the idea that certain characters are "fan favorites" and then grossly overestimate them. It's confirmation bias with a small sample size. The post up there discussing like, a handful of series and saying they're the only ones possible for Smash exemplifies that.

I'm just saying a lot of people on here have a serious gap in their gaming knowledge, which is fine, but also isn't conducive to adequate statistics. We live in a world where people would be mad that Dragon Quest or Resident Evil got in despite being massive series' just because they're not a D-list Nintendo character from the GBA era.

Statistics can be fun and so can theories, but that doesn't mean they're the be-all end-all, especially if you're basing them off the RTC thread, a thread that is a small sample size of a small sample size and is full of people who don't know what Assassin's Creed is but really enjoy Pokemon Mystery Dungeon or whatever.