My In-Depth Personal Thoughts on Smash Ultimate (Speculation-Wise/Roster-Wise)

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
Joined
Jan 5, 2013
Messages
27,581
Location
https://twitter.com/BluePikmin11R
NNID
blue
#1
A brand-new Smash game has just been revealed a few days ago. I was excited to see how the new game would play and was VERY eager to find out if my three-month research on Smash speculation had paid off. I watched Nintendo’s E3 Direct, and was completely flabbergasted by the colossal information dump. I was initially happy about every fighter in Smash history returning. I confidently predicted that there would not be any cuts for Smash 4’s roster, and was surprised by how far Sakurai went to make this roster very dreamy. The gigantic number of tweaks made for Ultimate’s gameplay and characters made me further appreciate Sakurai, at first. But when the direct was over, I was looking over many people’s impressions on the game, and my positive thoughts just went down the drain.

The number of de-confirmations were all over the place. I was witnessing Takamaru being confirmed as an Assist Trophy and Tom Nook being a part of Villager’s Final Smash yet again. The latter personally hurt me the most, given the big confidence I had for Nook before the Nintendo Direct. The fear of potentially seeing my predicted newcomers like Isabelle potentially being Assist Trophies kicked into high gear. The direction Smash Ultimate was taking with its roster had me questioning so many different things in my mind such as:

-The importance of adding non-combatant newcomers to Smash, which Sakurai had stated back in a 2013 Kotaku interview, with Tom Nook disconfirmed.
-The question of whether or not being a popular requested character would make up for the fact its title was from an obscure Japan-only Nintendo game, with Takamaru disconfirmed.
-The question of how huge of an influence the ballot has on the newcomer selection, with Daisy’s inclusion and Sakurai’s statement on why Ridley was included being that he has remained highly requested.
-The question of whether or not ballot popularity alone for a character from a popular franchise would make up for factors such as not appearing in a mainline game in a LONG time, making choices like K. Rool, Skull Kid, and Geno seem like bigger possibilities.
-The question of whether or not every veteran returning affects the number of newcomers added for Smash Ultimate, with Sakurai’s statement of “not expecting too many newcomers” coming to mind.
-The question of whether or not every veteran returning will affect how many newcomers from an already represented franchise will be moderated to a smaller degree in favor of ballot choices. Noting Xenoblade for this particular question, with Elma and Rex/Pyra both being added feeling like a smaller possibility.
-The question and worry of wanting to know if the bigger focus on ballot newcomers will completely exclude newcomer traditions like retros, historical surprises, and Sakurai-based newcomers.
-The question that if there was a smaller newcomer pool filled with ballot candidates, will it greatly affect how Sakurai will judge each newcomer choice during the project plan.

These were a massive number of things that put me in a largely negative mood as a speculator, on the first day of Nintendo’s E3 alone. It also did not help that there were some that were spreading false information on what was disconfirmed and confirmed with a non-playable role. There was the vocal minority’s negative complaints about every veteran returning and the possibility of a small newcomer pool. So much info about Smash Ultimate had come, clashing with the worrying thoughts, that I was unable to efficiently grasp all of the new information. I ended up feeling neutral about the new game overall. I tried getting over the neutral feeling through watching the Smash Bros. Invitational and seeing all the cool looking details for characters posted in social media, but I could not get rid of the internal worry for the first few days.

Today, I am somewhat over that feeling and I am able to give my clear thoughts on the matter. First off, I do still think every veteran returning and the roster focusing hugely on ballot choices for the newcomer pool are excellent ideas. The direction is not what I personally prefer and expected, but in the context of appealing to as many Smash fans as possible, it does makes sense. Although,the fact that Smash’s direction of choosing newcomers had remained consistent until Ultimate is the jarring part for me. The new direction forces me to uncomfortably transition into a brand new mindset of adding more ballot choices than Sakurai based choices, making half of the research I made for speculation useless information.

But admittedly, the biggest mistake I made here is assuming the direction of Smash Ultimate would remain the same. I assumed that only half the newcomers would be ballot based and that it would not be a large influence. It was my fault for not thinking openly about other directions. I even made a thread about making theories of how Smash Switch’s roster could have been handled, and never seriously considered thinking differently. I have nothing but to blame myself. The majority of speculators saying that the ballot is an essential part of the roster were right.

That being said, I am unsure if I really want to continue speculating a roster that is of a completely different direction. Sure, there are a few Sakurai choices that I think will likely happen such as the Chorus Kids and a Pokemon newcomer, but I have a sinking feeling that a large portion of Smash Ultimate newcomers will generally be added for very straightforward reasons, mainly immense ballot popularity (Noting Ridley and Daisy as examples). I am not sure if I can get much satisfaction to figuring out who could be added when the criteria of how Sakurai chooses newcomers is likely much looser.

I do not know if I wanna spend the next six months speculating again, only for me to get more newcomers wrong than right. My biases might end up turning to me again, affecting who I choose to predict. My will could easily shatter into pieces. It might all be a waste of time. Is there any fun left in speculating hardcore on Smash Ultimate’s now? Am I taking speculation too seriously? Should I just retire and watch what Sakurai reveals over time? I am tempted to do so, but there is a small part of me that wants to eagerly speculate despite the massive loss. I do not think I will get major enjoyment in speculating anymore. I feel I only have Smash gameplay and social media memes left to enjoy Super Smash Bros. in a positive manner now. Currently, I am unsure where to go from here.

Sorry if this all sounds idiotic. I just need something to write in-depth vent out my current frustration. I seek for opinions on what I should do next, that is, if you wish to do so.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jan 27, 2013
Messages
1,258
Location
Right behind you
#3
I think the problem in this intense speculation that I've been seeing from the boards is the way they look at Ultimate Smash Brothers.

This is not Smash 5. It is also not a port of Smash 4. This is Ultimate Marvel vs Smashcom 3. Or Ultra Street Smasher 4. Or whatever analogy works best to get across this is essentially a revamped version of the last iteration with mechanics changes and new content, and I fully expect Sakurai is treating it as such.

For that reason the number of newcomers is going to be likely anemic. I see people predicting 7 to 8 newcomers on top of more Echo Fighters and honestly feel that's insane. I'm predicting two newcomers on top of the ones we've gotten and topping it off at 70 characters. That could change with DLC, but on launch?

Expecting Smash 5, and thus expecting the New Smash Brothers game treatment and a whole slew of interesting newcomers will probably lead to disappointment, and it's already lead to disappointment for some people.

Of course I'd like to be wrong, hell add as many characters as possible. But just going off the evidence of what they've shown and the way they seem to be treating the game, this really isn't the beast people were anticipating.

For me, a Smash game for the Switch with all the veterans back and a few highly requested newcomers is more than enough. But, that's just me.
 

-crump-

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 12, 2015
Messages
1,633
Location
On your left
3DS FC
1590-4951-5915
NNID
MegaMatt79
Switch FC
SW-4366-1207-0908
#4
Blue, I respect your dedication to researching and making connections between Sakurai and his roster choices, but I have to admit, you do seem to take it pretty seriously.

If you enjoy what you’re doing, then by no means should you give up. But of course, don’t take it so seriously that it ruins your enjoyment of the game. Speculation is fun, but if you dive too deep, you create false truths for yourself, and it feels devestating when those truths don’t come to fruition. I know this firsthand, from the DLC days.
(K. Rool was all but guaranteed, damn it!!)

Me, personally? I’m trying to stay as far away from speculating individual characters, because I know if I fall in too deep, I wouldn’t be able to enjoy for the game as it is.

If you feel the same way, you should take a step back, and just let Sakurai work his magic. Don’t give up, or leave the scene, but maybe cool it on the hardcore speculation for a while, and see how you feel.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jan 27, 2013
Messages
1,258
Location
Right behind you
#5
Speculation is fun, but if you dive too deep, you create false truths for yourself, and it feels devestating when those truths don’t come to fruition. I know this firsthand, from the DLC days.
This is probably the most important/relevant point of all this.

How many times, no, seriously, how many times does Sakurai need to subvert the expectations of speculators and break made up "rules" on how characters are selected for the community to understand that he/nintendo aren't really working on the same logic.

We got Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt Dog, Ryu, Cloud, and Bayonetta last time......
 
Last edited:
Joined
Apr 11, 2017
Messages
559
#6
Hey man, look. I understand feeling down about some of the information we got the other day. It was a mix of feelings for all of us I’m sure. I was so excited seeing everyone coming back, but then the dreaded words left Sakurai’s lips, “I hope you aren’t expecting many new challengers.”. Then came the deconfirmation of characters such as Waluigi, Tom Nook, Takamaru, and etc.

It was all very overwhelming to receive at one time.

It took everyone’s speculation mindset, and flipped it. Characters we never thought we’d see again were suddenly back. It was shown that the ballot was going to be a bigger influence than most of us had previously thought. And lastly, we were introduced to Echo Fighters, and told not to expect many newcomers.

With all this information on how the roster will work this time around, we are left picking and choosing potential newcomers more nit picky than ever before. It also opened the door for others with Echo Fighters.

I’m currently trying to narrow my roster of newcomers down. It’s no simple task. Especially when you’re convinced a character’s inclusion is makes too much sense not to implement.

There’s 2 things I’m trying to keep in mind that have helped temper my expectations, and still be hype for the game.

1. It’s obvious the ballot is going to play a bigger part than we though. However, that does not mean every newcomer will be chosen from it. Newcomers have always been a mix of fan-service and Sakurai picks. Previously, it was more so the latter. Now, I’d say it’s probably more 50/50. With an alleged low newcomer count, Sakurai will want to add characters fans have clamored for, but there’s also been many new characters revealed since the ballot. Lastly, you obviously want certain characters in, and may have even voted for them. There are probably others who voted for them too, so don’t fret. (Honestly, I think a lot of vets were voted for, and now they are all back. Other likely ballot choices: King K. Rool, Geno, and Sora. Among others.)

2. DLC is highly likely. It was a huge success for Nintendo the first time, and with Smash Bros coming out early in the Switch’s lifecycle, Nintendo will want to extend the longevity of the game, and adding a character and a few stages here and there is the perfect way to do so. (Likely choices, Rex & Pyra, A character from ARMS, and a character from Fire Emblem: Three Houses.)

We will all be on pins and needles for the next few months waiting to see who makes it. Personally, I’m hoping for Isabelle. She hasn’t been deconfirmed, but I’m also fearful she will be relegated to a Echo of Villager. I’m also rooting for Lycanroc or Mimikyu as an unorthodox Pokémon choice, and someone from Rhythm Heaven.

Only time will tell.
 

DJ3DS

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 3, 2014
Messages
1,508
3DS FC
0602-6256-9118
#7
Honestly this is a huge post and I'm not sure I can respond to it all but this section feels like the crux of the matter:

I do not know if I wanna spend the next six months speculating again, only for me to get more newcomers wrong than right. My biases might end up turning to me again, affecting who I choose to predict. My will could easily shatter into pieces. It might all be a waste of time. Is there any fun left in speculating hardcore on Smash Ultimate’s now? Am I taking speculation too seriously? Should I just retire and watch what Sakurai reveals over time? I am tempted to do so, but there is a small part of me that wants to eagerly speculate despite the massive loss. I do not think I will get major enjoyment in speculating anymore. I feel I only have Smash gameplay and social media memes left to enjoy Super Smash Bros. in a positive manner now. Currently, I am unsure where to go from here.
Yes, you are taking Smash speculation too seriously. Moreover it feels like you're doing it for entirely the wrong reasons. Speculation shouldn't be fun based on what you get wrong or right; it isn't a contest.

Speculation should just be about getting to chat with some other people about the games you love and how cool it would be if they added X/Y/Z into the game.

Just pick a character you like, no matter how irrelevant or obscure, and find some other people who like him, and have some fun discussing what they'd be like independently of whether or not it's realistic. Shrek, Goku, Spider Man, whatever. I don't care. You can have a good laugh about how funny it would be without taking yourself seriously.

Real talk: there are bits about this game that I'm not super stoked for either. Ice Climbers may be back but not in the capacity I wanted, and Snake is the only other lost veteran I think is particularly cool. But there's so much to get excited for!
 
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
7,426
Location
Chuffy
NNID
JamesDNaux
Switch FC
SW-1407-6089-3701
#8
Don't beat yourself up over it Blue, there's no need to take speculation so seriously. You're trying to get into the head of a man from the other side of the world, and none of us can ever truly know what anyone else is thinking. Just have fun with it, root for your guy to win, like someone's favorite sports ball team, they can analyze the teams and say so and so has a certain chance of winning, but there's such a number of factors that make it impossible to know.

Just remember, it's not about winning or losing, being right or wrong, it's all about the experience.
 

Starbound

Worlds Apart, But Still Together.
Joined
Jan 31, 2012
Messages
3,336
Location
Canada
#9
It sounds like you're feeling a lot of time was wasted given that the game seems to be going in a different direction than you thought.

Speculation isn't a contest. There's no prize for getting the roster right (and, four years from now, if you do get all your predictions right, no one will believe you anyways! :D). It's a fun way to experience the game before you even get the game - community building, friend-making. It's the game before the game!

I feel like you're definitely taking things too seriously if you're experiencing "internal worry" over which fictional characters are in a video game. I actually had to read your post a few times because I could not empathize with how you feel about this as we're on totally different wavelengths of seriousness.

As the old saying goes, the real journey is not the destination. It's the experience.

I remember speculating with you back in 2013-2014 and I hope you'll stick around!
 

Pacack

Super Pac-Fan
Premium
Joined
Jun 7, 2013
Messages
7,813
Location
US (Mountain Time, -7 Hours)
3DS FC
0688-5284-6845
NNID
Pacack
#11
So, buckle up, Blue. There's a lot to unpack here.

Point 1: The first rule of Smash speculation is that you're going to be wrong.
Really. No one has ever been able to guess the entire roster consistently, and that's despite the attempts of this entire speculation community. You have to accept that none of your predictions are completely set in stone. Honestly, your extremely high chance in RTC for Nook worried me for this exact reason - no character has every had 90% chance to get in the game except maybe Inkling. As a rule of thumb, a 30% chance of a character getting in is really good. Don't let yourself get to thinking that any character is more likely than not.

Point 2: Being wrong isn't a bad thing.
Have you been upset about any Smash Bros. game so far? No? Then trust that Sakurai is doing what he can to please everyone as much as he can. If you accept each character as they are revealed and don't listen to naysayers who think they know better than Sakurai does. Do not fall into the trap that being wrong means Sakurai was wrong; he has a unique perspective that none of us can have.

Point 3: That doesn't mean you can't enjoy speculating.
That said, you and I are some of the prime examples of people finding little gems of Nintendo's history and growing to love them through speculation and research. As long as you aren't getting too worked up about being right, you can enjoy the simple act of looking at possibilities and appreciating the characters regardless of whether they make it in or not. Use Sukapon as an example from me. I love Sukapon; he might have been my most wanted retro behind Takamaru. But was I upset when he got an assist trophy? No. My reaction was an excited "Sukapon!!" because I was happy that he was in the game at all.

Point 4: There's something good to be found in even minor roles.
So, I was sad last game when Daitoryo was disconfirmed. Does that mean I don't enjoy him and hanafuda at all because he's not in the game at all? No. In fact, I've found joy in showing my friends my Daitoryo deck and telling them the history of the cards and how they tie into Nintendo's origins. The fact that he doesn't have the spotlight on him as a playable character means I still get to tell people about him. That said, I would have been really happy to see hanafuda referenced so I would have more chances to talk about him.

Even though Tom Nook isn't playable, you can still have conversations with people about how his representation shows how important he is to Animal Crossing, and you can explain to people how he's really a great character. It's okay to want a character in, but there are worse things than having an assist trophy or being part of a Final Smash. Enjoy what you are given, and you'll be happier in general.
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,214
Location
New York
#12
Don't beat yourself up about it, Blue. You've made some excellent analyses of certain characters in the RTC thread, but Sakurai likes to do the unexpected. I don't know if trying to predict him is that healthy in the first place. Just keep speculation light and don't get too attached. Like others have said, you're taking this far too seriously right now.

It's fun to be right about certain characters, but there are no givens anymore. We don't even have a good indicator of how many characters we'll get coming up, and it doesn't seem like Sakurai's going to waste those slots on characters with niche fanbases when the game so far is mostly fanservice. We also don't know what the extend of DLC will be - Sm4sh was released at the end of a console generation so obviously it didn't get a lot of love and brought back mostly vest that had huge fanbases. Ultimate is at the beginning of the Switch's lifetime, so we may be able to expect a lot more support. Or since it's so large, less.

It's fine to speculate on characters you like, but if you'll be disappointed when they don't get in, it ma be best to just enjoy whoever you get and be surprised. That is one of the things with this fanbase in general is that it lends itself to picking every single thing apart to find ways to put your words in Sakurai's mouth. Look at the Echo characters thread - just because Sakurai acknowledged clones, people are now predicting 8-10 new clone characters just because a C-list character shares a series and archetype with another veteran. On the other hand, Sakurai told us we should not expect many more newcomers, and others are taking it to mean that we've seen the whole cast already. Also like Pacack Pacack said - an Assist is not a death sentence; they're still being referenced in some way. Heck, if we even got a Mii costume of Dovahkiin, I'd be over the moon. Of course I'd rather he be playable, but I know that's not happening.

I'd say maybe take one or two characters you really like and think have a chance and keep it up, but to try to predict Sakurai's entire endgame based on spending hours going through interviews will lead you back down this path. Remember, he did say Ridley was impossible - but he did it because of the fans. Also, if you're going to spend so much time on digging through old articles and be disappointed when you're wrong, it'll really tamper your happiness with the game. I know - one of the worst things for me with Sm4sh was that my old Smash buddies stood me up when we were going to play the new game, and I let that sour my experience of the whole game. Just keep speculation light, and you'll enjoy the game more when it comes out, whether or not your favorites are in.
 

MattOnwheels

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jun 14, 2018
Messages
155
#13
I cosign what's been said, but I also give you this quote to ponder:



Stop and think on it a moment, won't you: How much of Smash did you just ruin for yourself all because you let your imagination create an impossible scenario to live up to? You created so much hype that it was simply unrealistic to really expect it to happen, and now suddenly because the game can't deliver the mind-shattering scenarios that were in your head, you feel betrayed as if the game you now have is some sort of lesser abomination.

I could sit down and write the best damn version of The Wizard Of Oz to my mind. It would follow the book closer than the original, leave room for sequels and nail every character just the way *I* want, but, news flash: It would never be reality. Nor would it ever mean the product we were given in place of that perfect vision is awful. In fact, my quest for perfection, the, would rob me of the ability to enjoy the actual film for the majesty that it is, because instead of looking at what IS, im lamenting over a potential that only exists in my brain to begin with.

'Point is, NEVER go down the rabbit hole with speculation. Ever. Nor allow yourself to think you "Know" anything better than the creates. Because, not to be rude, but I have some bad news for you, sunshine: As much as we all like to think we can do this **** better than Sakurai, the true red pill of the matter is that if any one of us were worthy of telling him what to do, who to add, what tweaks to make--we'd be in japan. Not here at home on a keyboard playing cyber detective. We like to think our being fans means we know everything. WE DON'T. When you get down to it, we're just whiny ungrateful children that have been too spoiled by a good game series for too long. We need to ABANDON the entitlement, be thankful we have developers that give a damn, and trust the team in good faith. If it ever becomes obvious they're slacking to the point nothing is happening anymore, THEN we feel jaded. SSBU at present is (to most) a positive thing. Don't ruin it by clinging to false goalposts that should have never been set up from the start.
 
Last edited:

Reila

the true enemy of humanity is anime
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
8,963
Location
After-School Tea Party
Switch FC
SW-8176-8978-3289
#14
I think everyone expecting more than five new challengers at most, excluding those we already know, are setting themselves for disappointment.
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2014
Messages
1,880
#16
Along with not taking it too seriously to the point of making yourself feel negative, and the fact that it's more than ok and should be expected to get things wrong, I have one thing to add/ask.

We have no reason to assume the ballot decided all the newcomers. We only have three so far, Ridley really wasn't because of the Ballot as the outcry started before then, and while Inkling might have got a lot of votes, it would have got in regardless of the ballot. Daisy is the only newcomer I see so far that probably got in as one of the more popular Mario requests (probably in the top 5 and was chosen due to ease of implementation).

So yes this is definitely a different speculation period, but I wouldn't go in assuming you could pick the top 5 ballot picks and call it a day. Sakurai is definitely still going to have to make some decisions.

But for real don't do it if it's no longer fun and you can't accept getting things wrong. I hope you get to enjoy the next few months as well as the game when it comes out!
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Messages
4,514
Location
The Mask Falls
#17
A brand-new Smash game has just been revealed a few days ago. I was excited to see how the new game would play and was VERY eager to find out if my three-month research on Smash speculation had paid off. I watched Nintendo’s E3 Direct, and was completely flabbergasted by the colossal information dump. I was initially happy about every fighter in Smash history returning. I confidently predicted that there would not be any cuts for Smash 4’s roster, and was surprised by how far Sakurai went to make this roster very dreamy. The gigantic number of tweaks made for Ultimate’s gameplay and characters made me further appreciate Sakurai, at first. But when the direct was over, I was looking over many people’s impressions on the game, and my positive thoughts just went down the drain.

The number of de-confirmations were all over the place. I was witnessing Takamaru being confirmed as an Assist Trophy and Tom Nook being a part of Villager’s Final Smash yet again. The latter personally hurt me the most, given the big confidence I had for Nook before the Nintendo Direct. The fear of potentially seeing my predicted newcomers like Isabelle potentially being Assist Trophies kicked into high gear. The direction Smash Ultimate was taking with its roster had me questioning so many different things in my mind such as:

-The importance of adding non-combatant newcomers to Smash, which Sakurai had stated back in a 2013 Kotaku interview, with Tom Nook disconfirmed.
-The question of whether or not being a popular requested character would make up for the fact its title was from an obscure Japan-only Nintendo game, with Takamaru disconfirmed.
-The question of how huge of an influence the ballot has on the newcomer selection, with Daisy’s inclusion and Sakurai’s statement on why Ridley was included being that he has remained highly requested.
-The question of whether or not ballot popularity alone for a character from a popular franchise would make up for factors such as not appearing in a mainline game in a LONG time, making choices like K. Rool, Skull Kid, and Geno seem like bigger possibilities.
-The question of whether or not every veteran returning affects the number of newcomers added for Smash Ultimate, with Sakurai’s statement of “not expecting too many newcomers” coming to mind.
-The question of whether or not every veteran returning will affect how many newcomers from an already represented franchise will be moderated to a smaller degree in favor of ballot choices. Noting Xenoblade for this particular question, with Elma and Rex/Pyra both being added feeling like a smaller possibility.
-The question and worry of wanting to know if the bigger focus on ballot newcomers will completely exclude newcomer traditions like retros, historical surprises, and Sakurai-based newcomers.
-The question that if there was a smaller newcomer pool filled with ballot candidates, will it greatly affect how Sakurai will judge each newcomer choice during the project plan.

These were a massive number of things that put me in a largely negative mood as a speculator, on the first day of Nintendo’s E3 alone. It also did not help that there were some that were spreading false information on what was disconfirmed and confirmed with a non-playable role. There was the vocal minority’s negative complaints about every veteran returning and the possibility of a small newcomer pool. So much info about Smash Ultimate had come, clashing with the worrying thoughts, that I was unable to efficiently grasp all of the new information. I ended up feeling neutral about the new game overall. I tried getting over the neutral feeling through watching the Smash Bros. Invitational and seeing all the cool looking details for characters posted in social media, but I could not get rid of the internal worry for the first few days.

Today, I am somewhat over that feeling and I am able to give my clear thoughts on the matter. First off, I do still think every veteran returning and the roster focusing hugely on ballot choices for the newcomer pool are excellent ideas. The direction is not what I personally prefer and expected, but in the context of appealing to as many Smash fans as possible, it does makes sense. Although,the fact that Smash’s direction of choosing newcomers had remained consistent until Ultimate is the jarring part for me. The new direction forces me to uncomfortably transition into a brand new mindset of adding more ballot choices than Sakurai based choices, making half of the research I made for speculation useless information.

But admittedly, the biggest mistake I made here is assuming the direction of Smash Ultimate would remain the same. I assumed that only half the newcomers would be ballot based and that it would not be a large influence. It was my fault for not thinking openly about other directions. I even made a thread about making theories of how Smash Switch’s roster could have been handled, and never seriously considered thinking differently. I have nothing but to blame myself. The majority of speculators saying that the ballot is an essential part of the roster were right.

That being said, I am unsure if I really want to continue speculating a roster that is of a completely different direction. Sure, there are a few Sakurai choices that I think will likely happen such as the Chorus Kids and a Pokemon newcomer, but I have a sinking feeling that a large portion of Smash Ultimate newcomers will generally be added for very straightforward reasons, mainly immense ballot popularity (Noting Ridley and Daisy as examples). I am not sure if I can get much satisfaction to figuring out who could be added when the criteria of how Sakurai chooses newcomers is likely much looser.

I do not know if I wanna spend the next six months speculating again, only for me to get more newcomers wrong than right. My biases might end up turning to me again, affecting who I choose to predict. My will could easily shatter into pieces. It might all be a waste of time. Is there any fun left in speculating hardcore on Smash Ultimate’s now? Am I taking speculation too seriously? Should I just retire and watch what Sakurai reveals over time? I am tempted to do so, but there is a small part of me that wants to eagerly speculate despite the massive loss. I do not think I will get major enjoyment in speculating anymore. I feel I only have Smash gameplay and social media memes left to enjoy Super Smash Bros. in a positive manner now. Currently, I am unsure where to go from here.

Sorry if this all sounds idiotic. I just need something to write in-depth vent out my current frustration. I seek for opinions on what I should do next, that is, if you wish to do so.
First of all, Blue, I adore your speculation, analysis and way of thinking and I thank you from the bottom of my heart for those three months of speculation.

Doing a point based reply, like Pac up there.

Point 1 I'm gonna share with him, you were slightly wrong and you are going to be wrong. Smash Ultimate is a different beast than expected, not being a true sequel but moreso a big collection of everything Smash has been. With that comes a new approach to roster decisions and development and it's something that you didn't take in mind. However, that's not a bad thing.

Point 2: It's okay to feel overwhelmed. The hype train went fast, but it also drove over some beloved characters without looking back in the process. Lots of information has been dropped only a few days ago and it's impossible to take in all of it and immediately molding it into a new all encompassing theory.
You've already tried to explain Ridley, Daisy and Inklings through the ballot. I think after taking a break you can piece together information again.

Point 3: Smash Ultimate's different, but that's not a bad thing. Instead of trying to look for patterns in Smash history as a whole, the overwhelming amount of informations also brings a solid groundwork for new analysis. Of course, you're burned out now and that is okay, but between Echo Fighters, the deconfirmations and suspicious MIAs, Ridley and Inkling, both of their movesets, there's a new groundwork to be laid for deciphering this game's mysteries. Some might be ballot, but Inkling was gonna be in anyway.

Point 4: Questions aren't bad and are inevitable with this big of an info drop. Some can be answered down the line, some can't be answered and some probably never been or will never will be answered.

Point 5: I don't think a speculation as thorough as you did can be done in six months, that will reveal newcomers and new ATs inbetween.

Point 6: You can still be right with your current mindset. Only two additional characters have been revealed. Ridley can still be a ballot outlier and there can still be non-combatant newcomers in the game. Possibly Isabelle, possibly other series. Ridley could've been a personal challenge to Sakurai and his inclusion has more sides to it than "pleasing the fans".
 
Joined
Jul 16, 2013
Messages
9,351
#18
I think everyone expecting more than five new challengers at most, excluding those we already know, are setting themselves for disappointment.
Probably not

I know it's usually out of order but 6 x 12 could be the number and that's including 2-3 echo fighters

But i say the max could be 75 give or take 3-4
 

T-Donor66

Mewtwo Fanatic
Premium
Joined
Sep 6, 2014
Messages
330
Location
Cerulean Cave
3DS FC
3050-7765-3759
NNID
T-Donor66
#19
Hey Blue, we’ve never spoken I believe, but I certainly did check our your prediction roster, and I’ve enjoyed reading your character analysis in the past few months. However, I did not realize that you put so much stake into the roster being correct. That, I consider to be unhealthy and will really dimish your enjoyment of the Smash series as a whole.

One of the most beautiful things about Smash is that it is virtually impossible to predict what Sakurai will and won’t put in. Anytime a direct loads up, you have no way to figure out what you are about to see. Sakurai is an anomaly. There is no set algorithm in his mind that decides what he will do. Seriously, show me a prediction roster from that Smash 4 era that included Wii fit trainer, Duck Hunt, Cloud, Ryu, and the return of Dr. Mario. Trust me, no one saw that coming, and I don’t see why this time would have been any different.

Also, regarding confidence in individual characters, that should also be kept in check. Look, we all have certain characters that we really want in. For me? Waluigi, Toad, Ridley. I certainly thought all three of them did have a chance, but I left it at that and did my best to realize they could easily NOT be in. And sure enough, Waluigi and Toad were both disconfirmed in a matter of 5 minutes. I was still extremely happy at the end of the presentation, despite my two most wanted getting disconfirmed, because I didn’t convince myself it was going to happen. Like i said, your RTC posts were a blast to read, but giving Tom Nook a 99% chance to be in was setting yourself up for disappointment.

All in all, I would just advise you to reevaluate how you should approach speculation in the future. I believe that the sooner you recognize that Sakurai is unpredictable, you will find yourself enjoying the ride a lot more and not being disappointed when your speculation turns out to be wrong. But anyways, I hope you figure it all out soon enough! :estatic:
 
Top