Meta Predictions

[VollrathFGC]

So I’ve been watching some Ultimate gameplay and playing it as much as I can before studying for mid-terms and I wanna get this out somewhere.

If you disagree, feels free to reply and we can start a discussion.

Notice: This is just my opinion and I’m basing this off of the current patch, no balance patches will be taken into account

Inkling

Honestly I feel this character could easily be number 1. They have the tools to be able to do it at least, whether it be combos, confirms, a very effective gimmick in ink. They’re also really effective at ledgetrapping and edgeguarding thanks to down b. And with players eventually learning when to charge ink, I feel that Inkling could be a very strong character through the whole meta of Ultimate

King K. Rool

Honestly, I can see why people are complaining about this character, and I do think he’ll be good. But once people learn how to play against him and bait out his armor, he’s going to be less prevalent. Though overall I feel he’s the best heavy in Smash History and is a good addition to the Juggernaut archetype in fighters.

Chrom

This addition was a dream for me cause I loved Awakening, but it hurts to say that I think he’s going to be Ultimate’s version of Little Mac, he’s a force but once you learn how to fight him he just dies. Again I don’t like saying it but I can’t help but think that’s going to be his fate.

The Belmont’s

While I was initially hype for them, and hell even planning on maining Richter, overall I feel meh about them. Their range is great, even if the startup bugs me a little, the projectile game is great and can edgeguard, so they’re going to be good, but they’ll be fairly easy to edgeguard, especially if you’re good at guarding against tethers.

Isabelle

This pure little pupper is easily going to be better than Villager. She has a trap in down b, pocket, and a very long attack grab (if it were a command grab it would but her near the top) which can have its uses, like desperation kills offstage, along with it being a tether making her recovery better than Villiger’s since she can mix it up a little. Overall I see her as high tier, but never truly breaking through to top tier

Incineroar

The first traditional grappler in the series he’s going to be scary like every grappler is, grapplers work by having the tools to scare you into blocking and absolutely destroying you by grabbing, however grapplers are almost never top tier unless they also happen to be fast (like Android 16 in DBFZ) because they’re big and slow, meaning they get combod to hell and can get camped out, but he will be behind a good chunk of upsets so you’ll hear of him a lot


Ken

I honestly haven’t seen many people using Ken, but I feel he’s going to be in the same vein as Ryu, also the inputs aren’t that hard to do, you just have to know the inputs and you’ll have them memorized in an hour or 2, if it takes more you shouldn’t play Ken or Ryu

Dark Samus

Both Dark Samus and Samus look better than we expected, but still aren’t exactly good, if you know how to deal with zoning you should be fine

Ridley

Ridley looks very mid tier to me, he’s got a command grab you can mash out of, a meh projectile, a very situational move that does 50, alright recovery, ok looking normals, etc. he looks very middle of the road.

Daisy

Ok so I don’t exactly know all of the difference between Peach and Daisy but I’m pretty sure that Daisy has faster moves with less damage/knockback, feel free to correct me if im wrong. But I see Daisy being at around the same placement as Peach.

Marcina

Ok, so I was a Lucina main in Smash 4 (and it seems like I still will be one in Ultimate) and while I hated that we were basically called hipster Marth mains I think that once Marth develops, people are going to find out how to combo into tipper. Though Lucina will still be used fairly common because she imo does better in this engine. They’ll be a popular and solid pick by a lot of players.

Link

Link looks like someone that’s very creative with how they use bombs could do well. He still has aspects of his Smash 4 counterpart, without a tether grab, a better boomerang that can’t be used against you. I could easily see Link being high mid tier if not high tier, and it helps that the Link discord is labbing everything they can find about this character

Alright, quick little side note, I started this on Friday, and now it’s Tuesday because mid-terms

Snake

The winner of the first Ultimate Major, I feel he’ll be fairly similar to Brawl but not quite as good, he’ll still be high tier if not top tier but he won’t be top 3 or 4

The Pits

After seeing what they’ve been able to do, I feel that Pit is going to be a sleeper pick for High Tier, he just has things improved from Smash 4 like a dash attack that can Anti-Air AND kill, drag down combos with fair, a nair that’s easier to combo into itself, just overall he’s going to be a solid character for anyone willing to learn his arrows

As for Dark Pit, I feel you should use him in certain matchups as his arrows kill earlier yes, but you don’t have quite as much control as Pit’s, and electroshock arm being more powerful isn’t worth the loss of the fantastic arrows, the only way I can see anyone using dark pit over pit regularly, is if they’re an edge lord that knows how to play Spanish Guitar, not just any Guitar though, it has to be Spanish

Pikachu

So far he’s looking disapointing, I’ve seen people thinking that Pichu might be better than Pikachu, I’m sure combos with develop but I haven’t really seen much to say he’s the #1 character like he was hyped up to be

Pichu

Pichu seems to be the more preferred between it and Pikachu, mostly because of the memes but I feel there’s something there that Pika just doesn’t have, dunno what it is. We’ll have to come back to this in a few months

Young Link

I feel that Young coming in was a little overhyped, sure Axe has been doing some things with him but overall he’s alright, he’s still scary don’t get me wrong, his arrows are very powerful and he’s able to consistently combo out of them. He’s probably one of the better iterations of Link in all of Smash and I’m excited to see what the players find.

Also, some people feel Young Link’s charged arrows are better than his uncharged arrows, they are not.

Mr. Game & Watch

I feel he might be a sleeper character, he’s a weird character to go against and he has the tools to make things happen and win, though it feels like he can still be camped out by characters, most notable fast characters and swords like in 4, but I feel overall he could make some noise.

Pokémon Trainer

If you are willing to learn all 3 characters, then you not only have more commitment to learning the whole character, but you will have to tools to be able to take anyone in a match, Squirtle for your combos/advantage state. Ivysaur for your neutral and killing. Charizard for emergency killing/heavy weight/recovery.

Mii Swordfighter

This character is just nutty at times, keep your eye out

Exit

Ok, so sorry that when I came back it wasn’t as detailed as I would’ve liked, but my family is going out of state for Christmas and I wanted to get this out of the way. I would’ve loved to go over every character, but I just don’t have the time right now. Hopefully I can come back to this later and see how this has aged.

In the meantime, my Twitter is VollrathFGC , I will be trying to lab out Marth, Lucina, Roy, and Chrom for now but I could expand to other characters as soon as I get bored of the swordies.

 

[Crystanium]

Here are my thoughts for a few characters I've tried.

Captain Falcon
He feels fine to me. I couldn't sweetspot his f-air for some reason, though. Is it more difficult to land? Still, his movement feels better in SSBU than it did in SSBB and SSB4.

Cloud
I don't like Cloud, but he feels right to me in this game. Sure, he was shafted in some respects, but he's still very good. He could possibly still be top ten.

Donkey Kong
Donkey Kong feels fine. I don't main him, so I can't really tell a difference between him in SSBU and SSB4 aside from animation.

Ganondorf
Ganondorf feels good in this game. Try out a short hop fast fall n-air. It's busted. Ganondorf can create a wall with his feet. His added speed has made him better. I can't say he'll be mid tier, but he's better than he was before. He feels similar to SSBM Ganondorf, but it's been years since I've played SSBM.

Inkling
She seems better as an aerial character. Her jab and recovery are excellent. In fact, if Inkling lands next to her opponent after using her up special, her opponent will be pushed away. Neutral B inks the opponent and pushes them away, somewhat like Mario's F.L.U.D.D. I don't think Inkling is going to be number one, but she'll definitely be good.

Mario
Still easily high tier. Even without the combo set-up, Mario can start up combos in the air like he was capable of doing in SSB4. B-air is still a safe option for approaching.

Pit/Dark Pit
While I dismiss those who treat recovery as a make-or-break notion for characters, SSBU doesn't offer the luxury of multiple air-dodges. (Air-dodging multiple times is still possible, but it requires more time and distance.) Pit's aerials feel much like they did in SSBB. He's easily capable of edge-guarding as well. I'd say Pit's at least high tier, and by virtue, Dark Pit as well.

Ridley
Ridley's got a lot of good aerials with the exception of d-air. His recovery is poor, but it's better than most new characters' recoveries like those of Chrom's, Incineroar's, and Simon/Richter's. I feel that Ridley might be low tier, but here's hoping he'll be patched for the better. N-air is his best aerial option, and I'd encourage Ridley players to practice edge-guarding with Ridley by using n-air off-stage, rather than resorting to his plasma breath. Still, he's a fun character. Definitely my gaifu. (That's waifu, but for male characters.)

Roy
Roy feels just right. Powerful, quick, and aggressive. I'd say stick with Roy if you plan on using Chrom. I haven't played as Chrom, but considering how easy it is to gimp your opponent off-stage, Roy's the safer option.

Samus/Dark Samus
Something about Dark Samus seems different, but I cannot put my finger on it when it comes to her movement. Still, both characters have been buffed very well. I had doubts about Samus' jab 1 and z-air, but those doubts have been quashed. Both Samus' have excellent n-airs and strong b-airs. Super missiles and charge shot have been buffed beyond belief. Shielding against Samus and Dark Samus isn't a safe option. They can still perform a d-throw ⇒ x aerials, but it's much tighter in terms of speed. While Samus has lost her dash attack combo set-up, she has a d-throw ⇒ dash attack combo that deals at least 18% damage. If Samus was low mid tier in SSB4, then she's at least high mid tier, if not low high tier. Same for Dark Samus. And some people doubted me in that one thread.

Sheik
She still feels like her SSB4 self. She's fast, her f-throw ⇒ f-air or f-throw ⇒ u-air is still there. Her b-air is stronger and her f-smash and d-smash are much faster, allowing for her to kill easier.

Simon/Richter
These two are projectile heavy from my experience. They rely a lot on zoning as well, but getting them off-stage spells doom for them, which is sad. I think Simon and Richter are going to be low tier. They might do well on-stage, but their recovery is complete and utter garbage.

Zero Suit Samus
For those who relied heavily on Zero Suit Samus' ladder combo, they'll feel like they're missing a part of themselves. I personally relied more on n-air, b-air, z-air, jabs, and f-tilts. Still, while Flip Jump is a good recovery option, the short-ranged side special is no longer as reliable as a recovery tool. Zero Suit Samus is dropping, but she might end up being a low high tier, if not high mid tier.

 

[VollrathFGC]

Here are my thoughts for a few characters I've tried.

Captain Falcon
He feels fine to me. I couldn't sweetspot his f-air for some reason, though. Is it more difficult to land? Still, his movement feels better in SSBU than it did in SSBB and SSB4.

Cloud
I don't like Cloud, but he feels right to me in this game. Sure, he was shafted in some respects, but he's still very good. He could possibly still be top ten.

Donkey Kong
Donkey Kong feels fine. I don't main him, so I can't really tell a difference between him in SSBU and SSB4 aside from animation.

Ganondorf
Ganondorf feels good in this game. Try out a short hop fast fall n-air. It's busted. Ganondorf can create a wall with his feet. His added speed has made him better. I can't say he'll be mid tier, but he's better than he was before. He feels similar to SSBM Ganondorf, but it's been years since I've played SSBM.

Inkling
She seems better as an aerial character. Her jab and recovery are excellent. In fact, if Inkling lands next to her opponent after using her up special, her opponent will be pushed away. Neutral B inks the opponent and pushes them away, somewhat like Mario's F.L.U.D.D. I don't think Inkling is going to be number one, but she'll definitely be good.

Mario
Still easily high tier. Even without the combo set-up, Mario can start up combos in the air like he was capable of doing in SSB4. B-air is still a safe option for approaching.

Pit/Dark Pit
While I dismiss those who treat recovery as a make-or-break notion for characters, SSBU doesn't offer the luxury of multiple air-dodges. (Air-dodging multiple times is still possible, but it requires more time and distance.) Pit's aerials feel much like they did in SSBB. He's easily capable of edge-guarding as well. I'd say Pit's at least high tier, and by virtue, Dark Pit as well.

Ridley
Ridley's got a lot of good aerials with the exception of d-air. His recovery is poor, but it's better than most new characters' recoveries like those of Chrom's, Incineroar's, and Simon/Richter's. I feel that Ridley might be low tier, but here's hoping he'll be patched for the better. N-air is his best aerial option, and I'd encourage Ridley players to practice edge-guarding with Ridley by using n-air off-stage, rather than resorting to his plasma breath. Still, he's a fun character. Definitely my gaifu. (That's waifu, but for male characters.)

Roy
Roy feels just right. Powerful, quick, and aggressive. I'd say stick with Roy if you plan on using Chrom. I haven't played as Chrom, but considering how easy it is to gimp your opponent off-stage, Roy's the safer option.

Samus/Dark Samus
Something about Dark Samus seems different, but I cannot put my finger on it when it comes to her movement. Still, both characters have been buffed very well. I had doubts about Samus' jab 1 and z-air, but those doubts have been quashed. Both Samus' have excellent n-airs and strong b-airs. Super missiles and charge shot have been buffed beyond belief. Shielding against Samus and Dark Samus isn't a safe option. They can still perform a d-throw ⇒ x aerials, but it's much tighter in terms of speed. While Samus has lost her dash attack combo set-up, she has a d-throw ⇒ dash attack combo that deals at least 18% damage. If Samus was low mid tier in SSB4, then she's at least high mid tier, if not low high tier. Same for Dark Samus. And some people doubted me in that one thread.

Sheik
She still feels like her SSB4 self. She's fast, her f-throw ⇒ f-air or f-throw ⇒ u-air is still there. Her b-air is stronger and her f-smash and d-smash are much faster, allowing for her to kill easier.

Simon/Richter
These two are projectile heavy from my experience. They rely a lot on zoning as well, but getting them off-stage spells doom for them, which is sad. I think Simon and Richter are going to be low tier. They might do well on-stage, but their recovery is complete and utter garbage.

Zero Suit Samus
For those who relied heavily on Zero Suit Samus' ladder combo, they'll feel like they're missing a part of themselves. I personally relied more on n-air, b-air, z-air, jabs, and f-tilts. Still, while Flip Jump is a good recovery option, the short-ranged side special is no longer as reliable as a recovery tool. Zero Suit Samus is dropping, but she might end up being a low high tier, if not high mid tier.

I feel like Cloud is going to be basically the same, Cloud players are going to adapt to what they can and can’t charge limit in fear of wasting their limit

DK is supposedly the same but with a lot shorter window for ding dong, but he has his other cargo throws that can kill now

Ganondorf is fun af, but I don’t like heavies

Mario is pretty much exactly the same, so the fact that he was slipping out of high tier at the end of 4 spells disaster for him

There’s already a term for Gaifu, husbando

I meant to mention Roy, but yeah pretty much what you said since his sourspot is now literally the size of Marth’s tipper instead of 1/8th of his sword

Sheik players I know aren’t really liking her this game, they might need to get used to the game for a bit but none of them are really staying with her at all

ZSS looks fine honestly, Pink Fresh and Choco have done some stuff with them, albeit Pink was at a local

 

[REZERO]

Current Meta Note that Nintendo is probably researching which characters have high winrates and will nerf/buff accordingly.

The one feature we are missing from Nintendo is competitive analysis. Right now casuals is competitive with how GSP works. Things like seeing which characters win at different tiers would give an accurate representation of which characters are truly top tier.

Characters that are strong at lower levels of play

• Many people have been saying Simon/Richter are top tier or decent but in this meta characters with bad recover tend to fail competitively. This is because projectile characters tend to be countered by characters with reflectors or high mspeed who have a pretty good chance at knocking them off stage. Their whip covers mid section but not above or below which is another bad thing about the Belmonts.
• K.Rool another character people lose to. The same theme as the belmonts is K.Rool heavily emphasizes projectiles. In previous Smash games projectiles did not have a presence like they do in Ultimate so eventually people will get used to projectile spam and these characters will become less relevant in the game.

Basically, anything with decent projectiles are very strong at lower levels of play because its easy to punish inexperienced people from a distance. This does not mean that people who play these characters do not have any skill, its just that at higher levels characters like Inkling, Snake, Peach, etc will be picked more than Simon/Richter.

In addition to that being said characters who specialize in projectiles will lose their touch if a patch nerfing projectiles comes out. Well rounded characters will be the ones to succeed in dynamic meta.

Characters that are strong at higher levels of play

• Chrom/Lucina/Marth/Roy
  • These characters have tendencies to cover a lot of distance really quickly and the hitbox for their tilts cover plenty of space. It is hard to edge guard against these 4 because their hitbox is much smaller when grabbing on to the stage.
  • The have good mspeed.
  • Chrom's recovery is bad but recovery doesn't quite matter as much if your presence on stage is overwhelming.
• Inkling
  • Inklings wavedancing is very deceptive because of the animation.
  • Ranged moves that cover the stage
  • Good damage
  • Good Recovery
  • Good co-op support
  • The only flaw about inkling really is their ability to kill is small they have a small range of techniques that can be used to launch people off the stage.
  • Decent mspeed
• Snake
  • Great edge guard
  • Mspeed is kind of mediocre
  • Great trade offs with grenades, makes Snake hard to rush
  • fantastic up tilt, good neutral air, and good ftilt
  • Really good recovery
  • Even though snake has projectiles they are not easy to dodge/avoid when you cook grenades and bait people to use their air dodge.

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Theres plenty of characters that fit in these categories but I was just listing some off the top of my head. I wanted to talk about Pikachu/Pichu but I will save that for later. The meta of Smash Ultimate right now is characters with decent move speed who can rush the opposing character and take control of the stage.