What to avoid:
MK ftilt rapes approach options, as well as Shuttle Loop.
dtilt rapes shield options.
dair rapes recovery.
PS -> practically anything rapes fsmash.
Avoid going under metaknight. His down air will sweep you due to its long range vertically and horizontaly. His fair beats out your fair and your Bair will trade with is fair, so if you see him going to fairs for spacing or even just to rush you space backwars and bair him. Avoid jumping at him directly while he is on the ground. He will shuttle loop and hit you. Use AS and BAS a lot more for this match, but avoid over camping. Metaknight can get in very fast and easy.
I learned yesterday while playing m2k that for this matchup your F-Smash can and will be punished in many ways. Hell, if you Fsmash and MK blocks it, He can dash grab you -_-. That one was tested and proven. lol. Your F-smash beats out Nado and a fully charged AS will also beat nado out. Keep that in mind because thats one of MK's openings. If you see a MK nado close to you but near the ground, Roll dodge out! Its a trap. Metaknight has no lagg after tornado if he stays near the ground, he can attack out right out of it with anything faster then your moves (which btw is almost all of his moves) Best thing to do is just move out the way. If he Nado's you but is above you putting pressure on your shield, When the nado is done either Utilt or grab him before he lands. If he nados past you do not chase him, for he will punish you also.
This is something I can not stress enough. For this matchup, Do not try to gimp him -_-!!!!!
i dont like fsmash in the matchup. My primary uses for the move is to punish landing frames, baiting, and throwing up walls. Very difficult to actually do this to MK with such a slow move.
Watch out for getting within 3/4 away from the center, MK will do dthrow -> fair to get you offstage and either gimp or put a boatload of pain on you off the edge.
Also phil brings up a good point. MK is probably the best character I know of to punish players who try to live in their shield. Don't run to shield everytime you feel you're getting pressured, or you're going to be eating dthrows and followups.
1. Resist F-Airing MK. (Combos.)
2. Spam Tilts/AS.
3. Lucario's F-Smash can be dash grabbed out of shield, be careful.
4. Don't edgeguard MK.
5. Don't get shuttle looped. (Combo'd.)
How to win:MK shouldn't have to land like at all next to you due to multiple jumps, everything is so fast that baiting with such a slow move is difficult, and MK gets around Luc's walls exceptionally well.
dtilt: space w/ shield as if he were to SH aerial.
dsmash: Not much shield lag, if you're lucky, jab, utilt, or grab after shielding.
ftilt/shuttle loop: Fire AS before approaching. If he is still nailing you, get outside of ftilt/SL range and either fsmash, dtilt, or jab. You can also land right outside their range and shield.
dair: AD, or make him stay on the edge by firing BAS/fair. Depending on stage, usually going recovering from below is better against dair, due to it's launching trajectory and inability to spike.
PS: You are being too predictable with fsmash. Mix it up with ftilt, grab, or AS.
Shield is your best friend practically, as most MKs are attack oriented, and dash grab/pivot grab are what he's going to do more often than not vs. standing grab, all of which are slow (standing grab), and telegraphed. If he tornados, tilt the shield upwards if he's above you so that it won't shield stab as easily.
Other obvious Meta strats are obvious: watch for gimping, punish when possible, keep him away. Meta Knight is quick for damage, and although he has more kill power than some believe, he doesn't have as much as the haters say he does! Save for a handful of finishers, his moves are designed to put the hurt on. When does Lucario do best? When the hurt has been put on! Keep this in mind, if you know and avoid his killers (Shuttle Loop, DSmash, Glide Attack, Gimpage, etc.), Meta Knight just makes you stronger!
Use tilts a lot more in this match. You need to be fast. His down tilt is on frame stupid and it trips so try to either jump in the air or roll out the way.
One thing about metaknight is that he lacks on kill moves. His downsmash will be used so it will be stale when it comes to the point on which he needs to kill you. DI up for this smash. His only 2 decent kill moves other then downsmash is Shuttle loop and F-smash. Shuttle loop will be used a lot also for the matchup so it will also be stale. the only real thing you need to worry about is F-smash. (While you're on the ground anyway)
BAS Spam is a little more helpful here to slow his approaching. It doesn't wall him as easily as Falco's lasers but it helps slow him down a bit, even with this I feel like Fully Charged AS is better for pressure. Full charged AS will Beat tornado, can help slow and approach, and is a nice surprise for a MK trying to recover. I'd keep one handy at all times.
Helpful tips:Good points people have made: Take him somewhere with a low ceiling (or FD, we don't like that XD), do not attempt to gimp, be friends with Aura Sphere (don't get predictable, don't neglect), and PUNISH!
This matchup isn't just about luck. I don't think it's Lucario favor but its far from a situation where it needs to be a beast Lucario and horrible Meta Knight. The 65:35 matchup is a bit too much, it needs to be refigured. I agree with previously stated ratio, 60:40 at worst, maybe even 55:45, its pretty close. As Lucario, you have to play smart, but its not as bad as some would have you believe!
If Meta comes at you from below with his UAir, your DAir has more range. Also more lag, so watch for that! I used to try to go after people with UAir at the top for a vertical kill. But time a DAir right and you launch MK upwards to his doom.
First off I would like to explain how to stop his glide attack. Metaknight's glide clashes with almost everything if it hits with another move. If you see a metaknight go for a glide attack you have 2 ways to stop it.
1) When MK sweeps in with the glide attack, jump and fair first to clash out his glide, then use Dair to hit him.
2) Jump and Dair. The first hit of dair will clash out the swing of his glide and the 2nd attack of Dair will hit Metaknight.
Use those tatics to knock out his glide attacks normally and out of shuttle loop.
Stall intermittently with dair. Dair can function like DB for marth so that if he edgehogs, dair, then second jump to either fair or BAS to get him off. Plus if you're recovering above the edge, it throws off his spacing, and is sometimes safer than AD (he'll usually do nair to punish AD).
Stages:and on MK I must say I find the match-up A LOT more easier if you stick to the ground and SHAD instead of Roll. IDK, thats just how I felt while facing some SoCal MKs
Avoid/Ban Rainbow Cruise (top priority!)
Try to CP Final Destination or Yoshi's Island.
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