Lucario vs. Fox match-up

[Bearedman8]

Hey everyone, I'm a power ranked Fox player in my state and I'm hoping to learn more about this match-up. I understand how Lucario's magic series works and how he functions as a character. I've got some more specific questions, and I'd also be really appreciative of any advice that you all could give me in the match-up.

What stages do you think favor Lucario/Fox more? How is Final Destination in that match-up? Are there any particular stages that Lucario wants to go to or avoid in this match-up? It looks like Lucky prefers to ban FoD and GHZ, while IPK bans Battlefield and PS2. Thoughts?

I've seen IPK and other good Lucarios get re-grabs or reaction up-smashes on Fox off of up-throw at low/mid percents. How hard are these follow ups to get if Fox has good DI?

Should Fox (basically) always go for an immediate up-throw off of a grab? How should Lucario react to an up-throw at low and mid percents? From my time in the lab, it seems like Lucario can dair before Fox can up-air until ~50%. I've seen videos (of say, IPK vs. Lucky) where Lucky gets a 0% up-throw up-air and I'm wondering why IPK doesn't interrupt it with a dair. Does anyone know any more specific percents for optimal grab follow-ups?

Finally, when Fox is at high percent, how should he be DI'ing Lucario's throws? I think that Lucario has a DI mix-up between down-throw(?) and up-throw that leads to a kill. Can I DI this on reaction to survive, or is it a true mix-up where I just need to pick a direction and hope that he picks a favorable throw?

These are all of the questions that I have in the match-up, but I'd love to hear anything else that people know about the match-up. Do you all think the match-up (at a high level) is relatively even? Thank you all for your contribution. I'd love to get a discussion started!

 

[Risky]

You want to avoid FD as Lucario has a similar punish game to Marth vs you if there are no platforms involved. You want room to run around and don't want to get stuck on the edge of any stage if you buffer a roll or are forced to tech. Lucario also suffers being able to kill at high % out of neutral.

At low-mid% Lucario does have guaranteed combos on Fox out of throws. Whichever way you DI the throw, SDI the followup and you can make it very annoying.

I find Fox uthrow has the same questions in every matchup. Do I get guaranteed stuff off uthrow, or do I dthrow tech chase. You definitely get free uairs later. Not sure the %'s Lucario can escape.

Lucario's dthrow/uthrow are a 50/50. The followup is completely free if you DI it wrong, but you escape if you guess right. They're about the same speed (a little over 20 frames before release) so you could react to them if you are used to the animations.

If you don't get grabbed in neutral and CC everything Lucario does it becomes incredibly difficult for him to actually get an opening on you. Even with stray hits he either has to successfully read your tech or you'll simply CC it and buffer a roll away or dtilt/shine.

 

[Bearedman8]

Thank you very much for your response! You did a great job of answering my questions. I imagine that I'll ban FD then. Any recommendation for a stage that I'd like to counterpick to? PS2 seems like it would be a good stage. Any idea why IPK would ban Battlefield against Fox?

I'll check out the frame data on Lucario's up-throw and down-throw. Glad to hear that there's the possibility to react to the animations.

 

[Risky]

I personally like PS2 a lot as Lucario. I think Fox can abuse the top platform far more than Lucario can on stages like Battlefield or DL64. If you can Powershield/Nair every projectile you'll be advantaged. Fox can abuse the room with his dashdance far more than Lucario can, so the more room you have to bait approaches the better. Once your back is to the edge on Yoshi's Story it can get bad.

The time they release is more than 20 frames, but they might be ambiguous for X amount of frames before then and make it very hard to react to anyway.

Lucario is extremely weak to shield pressure, with our best OOS options being generic ones like roll, or *insert fastest aerial here*. It becomes extremely hard to get anything going while getting Foxed (safe shield pressure), which makes it one of the harder matchups when each player knows the matchup.

If you expect them to approach with Double Team (down-b), know the spacing on it and put out a hitbox where he will end up (think utilt). If they use aura you'll beat or clank their move, if they don't use aura it has 5 frames of vulnerability at the end.

 

[Bearedman8]

Thanks again for the response. I feel pretty confident in my ability to powershield. Battlefield seems like it can be a reasonably good stage for Fox.

I tried to practice getting the correct DI on reaction for Lucario's up/down throw today (with Fox at high percent to avoid the kill/re-grab). It seems that, for the most part, I can't react to what throw he's doing. It's mostly pick a direction and hope that I don't lose the coin flip. The correct DI for up-throw is behind Lucario and for down-throw is in front of Lucario, right? Is it possible to DI correctly on reaction if I lab this up for a lot longer and become more familiar with the animations, or is that the throw window too small and I should spend my time practicing something else?

If I can't DI those throws on reaction, should I still be angling hard left/right (180/360, I think) and hoping that I win the coin toss, or is there a more optimal angle that'll cover one of the throw options and make the follow ups for the other one more difficult? (For example, instead of angling behind Lucario in preparation for the up-throw, angling down and behind him to prepare for the up-throw and make the follow up for down-throw harder. Anything like that.) Thanks again for your help!

Edit: Also, at low percents, what throw is Lucario generally going to want to do? From the sets that I've been watching, it looks like IPK mostly goes for up-throw at low percents in a neutral position on the stage. Is this what I should generally be DI'ing for?

 

[Risky]

It'll always be uthrow at low%. If you DI in they will utilt you and get a free followup. If you DI in front and SDI the jab or dtilt into usmash that's coming then you'll make his life much harder. If they utilt in that situation you'll have time to shield and get out (assuming your DI is down and away). Mixing it up is your best bet though, since Lucario can react to your DI no matter what at low%. Most players will uthrow until you correctly DI it, and then *may* start mixing you up with dthrow.

You'd have to judge for yourself if you can react to it. I don't know of any players who do.