Lucario MU chart V2.0

#HBC | Red Ryu

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#1
V1.0:
:lucario:
-2: :metaknight: :snake: :dedede:
-1: :diddy: :wario: :marth: :gw: :fox:
0: :falco: :popo: :olimar: :zerosuitsamus: :toonlink: :pit: :dk2: :wolf:
1: :kirby2: :rob: :peach: :luigi2: :ike: :ness2: :lucas: :mario2:
2: :pikachu2: :sheilda: :sheik: :pt: :bowser2: :falcon: :samus2: :jigglypuff: :link2: :zelda:
3: :sonic: :yoshi2: :ganondorf:

V2.0:
:lucario:
-2: :metaknight:
-1: :dedede: :diddy: :fox: :gw: :olimar: :marth: :snake: :wario:
0: :dk2: :falco: :popo: :kirby2: :luigi2: :ness2: :pit: :toonlink: :wolf: :zerosuitsamus:
1: :bowser2: :ike: :lucas: :mario2: :peach: :pikachu2: :rob:
2: :falcon: :jigglypuff: :link2: :pt: :samus2: :sheik: :sheilda: :sonic: :yoshi2: :zelda:
3: :ganondorf:

Changes:
:dedede: -2 -> -1
:snake: -2 -> -1
:olimar: 0 -> -1
:kirby2: -1 -> 0
:luigi2: -1 -> 0
:ness2: -1 -> 0
:bowser2: -2 -> -1
:pikachu2: -2 -> -1
:sonic: -3 -> -2
:yoshi2: -3 -> -2

Panelists:
Red Ryu
Trela
John12346
Junebug
D. Disciple

Discuss.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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#3
Because He makes us be more wary of our air game, which he has legitimate options to stuff it out.

Any MU where he has to be careful like that is a lot closer for character against Lucario.
 
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#4
How do we go even with Kirby?

Still no advantage against TL?

What has updated in the Oli MU that makes it -1 for us?

Still feel D3 is our worst MU...

Zeik might be +1, not +2 for us.

G&W should be at least even, if not a +1 for us due to his predictability (people seriously need to stop spamming DAir right above him).

The rest I am okay with... even though I think we do way better.

Also, why are we even with DK when Lucarios have been beating Will so much?
 

RT

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#5
Looks okay to me.

But I'm garbage so...

Sweet!
 

Browny

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#6
How do we go even with Kirby?

Still no advantage against TL?

What has updated in the Oli MU that makes it -1 for us?

Still feel D3 is our worst MU...

Zeik might be +1, not +2 for us.

G&W should be at least even, if not a +1 for us due to his predictability (people seriously need to stop spamming DAir right above him).

The rest I am okay with... even though I think we do way better.

Also, why are we even with DK when Lucarios have been beating Will so much?
(status quo)^n
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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#7
How do we go even with Kirby?
Junebug explained his thoughts with playing against ChuDat. I've seen others talk about it and it seems the Kirby panel wanted it as well.

No one seemed to object to it since we saw their were some things Kirby had that were legitimate against Lucario.

Oddly enough the main Kirby I lose to, Triple R, thinks Lucario wins.

Still no advantage against TL?
No one on our panel to my knowledge thought this, and it seems to be the same with the TLs.

What has updated in the Oli MU that makes it -1 for us?
People said we lost to Olimar on the first chart, it came back again this time. I will say our panel was pretty much in favor of losing to him minus myself who decided to go with the majority due to lack of good experience.

Still feel D3 is our worst MU...
It's MK.

Zeik might be +1, not +2 for us.
I'd agree but at the same time their isn't enough interest in Zeik.

G&W should be at least even, if not a +1 for us due to his predictability (people seriously need to stop spamming DAir right above him).
I'm still salty we lost this one.

But it's mostly due to V!nn!3 beating Trela and June pretty badly.

Also, why are we even with DK when Lucarios have been beating Will so much?
Results are not the sole indicator, it's more than just that.

Also who? From what I know that the wins are limited to Zucco and John#s.

~

I'm not sure what Browny is saying tbh.
 
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#8
Will the panelists' thoughts be made public? I'd like to see the reasoning behind a lot of these.

Although I'll be honest... and this is coming from a rabid theroycrafter... No offense, but I'm hearing more theorycraft than outright fact and results. With something like this it doesn't seem right...

In the end results are all that really matter anyway...

If you guys can show us results and videos I'll change my tone, but it seems way too much theorycraft.
 

Browny

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#9
Im saying that this community is still plagued with outdated 'data' and no longer relevant results with people conveniently ignoring things.

Overall, the new matchup chart to me doesnt seem to reflect the current results at all, merely trends that started last year which have now been realised, but not yet updated for this chart. The usual suspects once again benefit the most from people being stuck in the past,
 

RT

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#10
If top players from both sides of a matchup agree how a certain matchup is, I really don't see how it could be otherwise...it's not like they know their own respective character or place well...

Oh wait. Hmm...

A matchup chart IS theorycraft, but it's backed up with consistent results from top level play. No, beating some scrubby MK at a local doesn't make the matchup in Lucario's favor. The results also have to be consistent, not just, "OMG, TRELA/JUNEBUG BEAT SO AND SO ONCE SO NOW IT'S AUTO EVEN/IN LUCARIO'S FAVOR!11!!111!1" Upsets happen and people get lucky. Also, some regions have stronger character representation/variation than other regions so certain people have a more developed insight on certain matchups.

For example, I would trust Trela in the TL matchup than other Lucarios because I've seen him play and beat so many top TLs in high level tourneys. Add the fact that he gets practice against TLs pretty much every week, if not day...it's safe to say that he knows the matchup pretty well, and anything he says is probably correct.

But what do I know?



Derp.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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#11
The problem with consistent happened a few times like the Ness MU where it seems it's not played at top levels at all.

So we were pretty much left to talking about the MU at that level, though after with talking to EagleEye more I kinda think I should have rethought that one.

~

Like, I understand with some like Marth because that one goes back and forth a lot result wise.

Olimar was pretty much decided unanimously that he wins.

I mean, people think D3 is a -2 for us who don't play our character, but almost all the top players seemed to favor a -1 on both sides, same for Snake it seems where I was one of the odd men out sticking with -2 for a while. I try to look at MUs from all angles as best I can, it doesn't help though I think we have close MUs with most of the cast as is. It's even harder for a lot of these when experience is very dry.

I won't out anyone else's opinions and what they said in the BBR unless they want to say it, it's not fair when it was done behind closed doors and to out them when they may have trusted it to be like that. But I'll out mine, My personal chart after doing this project and winning losing discrepancies looks like this. That and I think people deserve to listen to what people thought and decided.

VRR:
:lucario:
-2: :metaknight:
-1: :dedede: :diddy: :fox: :olimar: :snake: :wario:
0: :dk2: :falco: :popo: :kirby2: :pit: :ness2: :toonlink: :wolf: :zerosuitsamus: :gw: :marth:
1: :bowser2: :ike: :lucas: :mario2: :peach: :pikachu2: :rob: :luigi2:
2: :falcon: :jigglypuff: :link2: :pt: :samus2: :sheik: :sheilda: :sonic: :yoshi2: :zelda: :ganondorf:

i'll be doing write ups for why we made which changes we did, this big ones like Snake and D3 I suppose. And then some others like Oli need to be done.
 

iRJi

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#12
Marth/snake/d3 = -2

To me this just looks like what the tier list represents, and you guys based it off of what. Now, don't get this confused with me saying that you didn't put effort and discussed this, but if you think MK is bad AND then say he is harder then the characters I mentioned above, then this, imo, needs to be rechecked and analyzed.
 

RT

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#13
I know my opinion doesn't matter, but I truly disagree with Snake being -1 instead of -2. However, I've felt that way for a couple years now mainly because he literally counters a good majority of Lucario's options with all his options. Plus his ability of killing Lucario at lower percents (130-ish or so) decimates his chances of using aura, which is the main characteristic behind Lucario, which in turn forces him to kill Snake at higher percents. It's a vicious cycle, both in theory and in real matches.

Everything else is either right from my experience or I can't argue (because no experience but have a very vague understanding how the matchup goes).
 
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#14
I'd like to see what everyone's feelings are about every MU on this board. I think we may be able to come up with some interesting results and improve our knowledge on every Lucario MU.

If I don't sleep over 9000 hours today or play Sacred Stones too much, I'll start something before 2011 ends...
 

Steam

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#15
I agree with RT, lucario only being -1 against snake is just ludicrous to me. the only reason I can deal with this chart is that D3 is also only a -1.

and I don't want to talk about G&W. I absolutely HATE that matchup because It feels like a matchup where G&W can faceroll the controller and I still have to play mistake free to win... I dunno about ratio, but I hate the matchup for that reason.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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#16
Well it's hard to say it is a -2 when there was a huge following for it to be a -1 on both sides.

But again i know the chart will never please everyone.

RJ, MK when he know what he is supposed to do Anti style is our worst MU. Even if June beat M2K that doesn't mean the MU is any closer.

:phone:
 

Steam

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#17
It's kinda sad how easy it was for anti to just shut lucario down. if played properly at a high level it's close to -3 for us IMO.

I just don't see how snake can only be a -1 when it's what lucarios always seem to lose to other than MK, no other -1 weeds out lucarios like snake or even comes close.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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#20
You listed D3 twice, and I disagree, while Snake and D3 are borderline -2, I do think we have developed to the point where they are easier than MK.

MK has been getting worse and better in some respects, but when MKs are taking up strats that work, like reverse SL to gimp us easier, then it's extremely hard to deal with it.

I'm not getting the Fox hate either. Even when playing and losing to Zeton it didn't feel close to the others. Heck some people on our panel wanted to argue it as even.
 

Browny

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#21
I just don't see how snake can only be a -1 when it's what lucarios always seem to lose to other than MK, no other -1 weeds out lucarios like snake or even comes close.
I do think of it as a range. and I see snake, fox, and D3 at a whole other difficulty level than the likes of wario/D3/Marth
Well make up your mind!

If no other character even comes close to the lucario-slaying abilities of snake (except MK), why do you suddenly decide that D3 and even fox, are somehow worthy of that same difficulty? You try to base your reasoning off results, and backflip all over the place.
 

Steam

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#22
@red- fixed my post, I meant to say diddy where I said D3 the second time.

I think D3 and fox are slightly easier than snake, even still the matchup against them rarely happens. I think D3 and fox could be either -1 or -2. if D3s actually start using Dthrow > upsmash then it's a -2. Snake should be a solid -2 though and nothing has ever really changed to indicate it should be a -1 :/.
 

Steam

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#26
Lucario / marth is +1 marth... though it probably should be even.

Fox has at the very least a +1 on lucario because he can play keep away and force lucario to approach, and has the ability to easily capitalize on commitments lucario makes.
 
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#28
My only gripe is Diddy being -1. I may be in the minority with this opinion but I feel as though that matchup is even or slightly in our favor.
Diddy has some nasty nasty setups on us that make it really hard to approach.

If Diddy plays a defensive playstyle it is pretty hard to get in. Diddy's moves are pretty darn fast. 4 frame DSmash, etc.

I agree that we lose to Diddy. However, this MU is highly stage dependent.
 

Jet300

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#29
Fox has 3 things that lucario hates in this MU, His hard camping lasers, that Usmash, and racking up damage really fast. Lucario aura thingy won't do much to Fox, because of his strong Usmash kills at 100%. His SHDL forces Lucario to approach and the laser rack his damage up to a percent that fox can kill lucario on. He racks up damage really fast.

That explains how Fox is a -1.
 

hichez50

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#30
I think the match up is even but it is not in your favor. Diddy kong's fair beats out every arieal option we have. Also on a majority stages he can control the stage a lot better than we can. Our saving grace is that most Diddy kong's finish long strings with a smash and if you know that you can properly DI it. Then it is up to you to get the kill first on diddy kong. Also diddy has better tools to control nanerz than lucario. I play Player-1 often and really lucario's best option is ussally best to hold a naner so he can only use one. meh.

Then jet is right about fox. I'm pretty sure foxes Upsmash will kill earlier if you DI poorly.

The marth match-up is fine where it is now. Marth still pretty much has the air covered, which limits our approach and recovery efforts.
 

John12346

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#32
These were my proposed changes from v1 to v2, for anyone who cares:
Snake: -2 to -1
Dedede: -2 to -1
Olimar: 0 to -1
Mario: +1 to 0
Sonic: +3 to +2

Although I did agree with a lot of the changes that were ultimately proposed on the transition from v1 to v2, so yeah.
 

Steam

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#33
from the little mario experience I have I honestly feel it's closer to +2 for us than 0 :/

I've never really understood what makes it close.
 

John12346

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#34
Well, I've played the matchup enough times. I feel that Mario just has the tools to deal with what we've got. Bair for aerial spacing, Nair for a good interrupt, and Uair as a decent enough juggler, Fireball for camping/approaching messes us up at times due to it's weird trajectory, and our AS is slow enough that if we shoot it, he CAN Cape it simply on reaction, which is a problem.

It also doesn't help that he gets to Cape our recovery, and he's no slouch in gimping us, either.

Our advantages are the same as they are in most matchups; our Fsmash outranges everything Mario has, and Mario has a tough time killing Lucario outside of gimps, giving us a lot of power to work with. Fireball can also be DT'd on reaction, which can catch Mario by surprise, too. On top of all of that, we also have an aerial game to compete with(not beat) what Mario has.

I'd be willing to settle for +1 on the matchup, but I feel like it's a 0, imho.
 
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#35
Well, I've played the matchup enough times. I feel that Mario just has the tools to deal with what we've got. Bair for aerial spacing, Nair for a good interrupt, and Uair as a decent enough juggler, Fireball for camping/approaching messes us up at times due to it's weird trajectory, and our AS is slow enough that if we shoot it, he CAN Cape it simply on reaction, which is a problem.

It also doesn't help that he gets to Cape our recovery, and he's no slouch in gimping us, either.

Our advantages are the same as they are in most matchups; our Fsmash outranges everything Mario has, and Mario has a tough time killing Lucario outside of gimps, giving us a lot of power to work with. Fireball can also be DT'd on reaction, which can catch Mario by surprise, too. On top of all of that, we also have an aerial game to compete with(not beat) what Mario has.

I'd be willing to settle for +1 on the matchup, but I feel like it's a 0, imho.
And Mario(thanks Vato) happens to be one of my most well known matchups too and I feel that matchup is heavily in our favor.

Fireballs should give you zero problems if you know how to shield. If Mario approaches with fireball from the air, he can't do anything else besides uair or dair which our fair will beat. Seriously, walking and powershield fireballs is elementary.

Getting caped on your recovery is more on the lines of your own fault since it should be the other way around. Lucario gimping Mario, or if Mario is on the ledge: killing Mario.
 

John12346

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#36
Well, I guess. I think it's just an interpretation of how both characters' tools work, and I guess I was the only one who came up with 0 out of that. >___>;

But like I said, there's nothing wrong with +1, so I'm good with that.
 

hichez50

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#37
From limited experience with Mario secondaries I would like to say the MU is +1 for lucario. Mario can kill eraly with fsmash. Also dsmash and upsmash aren't bad. Most of the damage you take will be chipped by bairs and you not properly shielding fireballs. Also our dair makes mario's upair unreliable past low percents.

:phone:
 

vato_break

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#38
Mario CANNOT kill lucario. The only way lucario should be dieing is an upsmash OoS and maybe a fresh Dsmash but, for the most part mario cannot kill lucario reliably. So if mario can't kill well that means he has to try to gimp lucario which is pretty hard considering Fludd/Cape(his main gimp tools) don't help too much. +1/2 for lucario
 
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#39
Mario could take advantage of our RCO lag with our recovery. Jab -> Smash :( Normally that setup should not work, but RCO lag is silly.

Mario's is somewhat difficult to land a kill on. One of his more common approaches of SH Fireball above the aura of FSmash makes it somewhat difficult to get that killing blow in. The easiest way perhaps would be a DAir, but that puts us at risk for USmash/Tilt.
 
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