Ah, KOS-MOS. Although the Xenosaga series is certainly not my favourite when it comes to RPG's, I really like the KOS-MOS character. And honestly, who doesn't? She's perfectly designed to appeal to everyone. Bad*** female androids are certainly something that is sure to catch people's attention. I'd say she's probably my top pick for a third party character. Of course, that's assuming she is 3rd party. Speaking of which, her ownership is something I want to take a minute to discuss:
As we all know, Monolith Soft, the original makers of Xenosaga was purchased by Nintendo in May 2007. If Monolith Soft kept the rights to Xenosaga, then that would make KOS-MOS (and all related characters) second party, and would destroy any legal barriers. May 2007 would be pretty late in development though, and might not have left enough time to implement her. It is possible however, that the team had a heads up that this purchase was going on well in advance, and acted on it.
Nevertheless, I'm not so sure that Monolith Soft would have taken the rights to Xenosaga with them when they left. See, Xenosaga has become a pretty big name associated with Namco, and KOS-MOS has become an ancillary mascot of sorts to them. She'll never be as big as Pac-man of course, but she is still pretty famous and is a character many people think of when they think of Namco. In all likelihood, Namco would not give up the franchise so easily.
If Namco does still own her, then of course she's still eligible to get in as a 3rd party candidate. I think it's extremely difficult to accurately analyze any 3rd party character's chances since there are so many potential ones and so many factors. Still, I'm going to try.
First, would Namco have gotten a character? Pretty hard to say. There's certainly quite a lot of competition for that slice of Smash Bros. pie, and a scarce supply at that. Konami and Sega have already taken theres. Now what other big names are there? The biggest names in the biz right now that are left as choices are probably Namco, Capcom, and Square Enix.
Really though, I just can't see a Square Enix character getting in. There's just so many and very few of them stick around for more than a couple of games since SE routinely establishes a new universe in almost every game. Some people have suggested characters like Chocobo and Slime, but personally, those just don't seem very plausible to me. SE has very few iconic characters and the ones that are iconic would just plain suck in Brawl.
So that leaves Capcom and Namco. By the sounds of it, we won't be seeing Capcom's biggest mascot in Brawl (I know people dispute this, but all the evidence heavily suggests this to be the case). That certainly doesn't count any Capcom character out. Heck, if Snake is anything to go by, all it takes to get your character in is to be friends with Sakurai. But for the purpose of this analysis, I'll assume more 3rd party characters will be added for more logical reasons. So a Capcom character is still certainly possible, but at this point it doesn't seem as likely as it once did.
So on to Namco. Namco has one very big thing which links it strongly to Nintendo and gives it a pretty solid edge. And that is of course the Triforce. Along with Sega, it shows a very good bond with Nintendo. Will this bond be good enough to get a Namco character into Brawl? Hard to say. Just for fun, I'll take a look at some other Namco franchises and characters:
Pac-man - Unquestionably the biggest icon Namco has to offer; a character everyone knows. A lot of people rip on Pac-man for his lack of move set potential, but I think it could be done, and I honestly wouldn't mind seeing him. But my opinion means nothing. It's what Namco wants that's important. Does Namco think Pac-man is suitable for a crossover type game? I'm not sure sure. Ever heard of Namco x Capcom? It was never released outside Japan so probably not. Here's the wiki link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namco_x_Capcom.
This game was a crossover RPG game featuring Namco and Capcom characters (obviously). It included tons and tons of characters from both companies as allies and enemies. But get this: Pac-man was not among them. It's surprising, but true. All he get was a cameo in the form of a statue. Perhaps this shows that even if fans can make a Pac-man move set, it's something more easily said than done.
Tekken - No one cares about Tekken. If there's one fighting series of Namco's that people care about, it's...
Soulcalibur - Definitely one of the more popular (if not the most popular) fighting series of the time and would obviously take priority over Tekken. It even has an upcoming game on the Wii (legends). But who to choose of all the characters as it has for Brawl? I suppose Seigfried/Nightmare would be considered the most important character of the series so it would probably be him. I won't deny that this is a definite possibility for Brawl, but let's cut to the main point of this thread...
Xenosaga - Though only recently making it onto a Nintendo system, Xenosaga has become a pretty huge series. Only 5 years old, it already has an anime adaptation and a handful of spin-offs. KOS-MOS is inarguably the face of the series and would be the only choice to represent it. She's not only immensely popular, but she has so much move set potential (I know move set potential doesn't mean everything, but it definitely helps). If Namco were to get a character, she seems like a top pick to me.
With everything considered, I must point out again that it's extremely hard to predict 3rd party characters with much accuracy at all. I'm not getting my hopes up very high for KOS-MOS, but I believe that among 3rd party characters, she's one of the more likely choices. Unfortunately, I don't think that means much. Considering how close we are to release and how it seemed that Konami and Sega wanted the public to know about their characters in Brawl way ahead of time, I'm not so sure we'll be seeing any more 3rd parties. There is always hope, no matter how bleak it appears. A quick peek at the Mega Man thread proves that...
So, there's my analysis on KOS-MOS's chances (and other things). I wonder if anyone will actually read the whole thing?