Introduction
It’s been nearly one year since Super Smash Bros. Ultimate’s debut. Since December 7th of 2018, we’ve seen a massive shift in the metagame, with a clear slant that favors international spotlight and character diversity. The meta is volatile, and perspectives change every new major.
One thing that’s stayed consistent, however, is Japan’s ascendance into the metagame’s spotlight. This shouldn’t be surprising, as each new installment invites a large Japanese playerbase that typically does well.
Many Japanese players were of top 10 caliber during the early Super Smash Bros. Melee era (examples include “Masashi”, “Bombsoldier”, and Ryota “Captain Jack” Yoshida), Japan was arguably as good as the United States at Super Smash Bros. Brawl (examples include Yuya “9B” Araki, Yuki “Etsuji” Kajihara, and Kenta “Otori” Ishikawa”), but Super Smash Bros. for Wii U introduced something of a hitch. Smash Wii U was less accessible than prior installments due to the ill-fated Wii U’s low sales.
This caused something of a lag in their international presence, especially early on. It wasn’t really until GENESIS 3 when Ryuta "Ranai" Hayashi took home 3rd place that the region started to get traction, and it took until 2017 for the region to become more collectively recognized after events like 2GG: Civil War, FPS2, GENESIS 4, and Frostbite 2017.
Ultimate Accessibility
Smash Ultimate being a title on the highly successful Nintendo Switch has likely laid out better groundwork and accessibility across the world. Beyond that, the pillars of tournament infrastructure built by previous titles put a lot of new eyes on the Smash Ultimate scene in its early months.
With infrastructure from Smash for Wii U and the Switch’s accessibility, there was more immediate attendance from international players. This, in particular, seemed to bode well for Japan.
They got immediate traction with star player Sota “Zackray” Okada placing 5th at GENESIS 6. Frostbite 2019’s efforts to send out Japanese players as well as Zackray’s later attendance at Summit continued to keep major eyes on the region. Later, Shuto “Shuton” Moriya winning 2GG: Prime Saga in a Japan-only Grand Finals seemed to further solidify the game’s international status.
An Ascendant Japan
Japan’s presence over the first PGR season has been more noticeable than it was during early Smash for Wii U:
PGRv1: 7 players
PGRv2: 9 players
PGRv3: 16 players
PGRv4: 9 players
PGRv5: 11 players
PGR Ultimate v1: 12 players
While the second iteration of the PGR for Smash Ultimate hasn’t been released, it’s likely that the final number of Japanese players will total above 12 and could match the 16 peak seen during the January-June 2017 season. That season featured a whirlwind of successes for the country internationally at events like GENESIS 4, Civil War, Umebura Japan Major, and more.
This likelihood is based on both the sweeping success Japan saw at EVO 2019 as well as numerous American A-tier events (most notably Thunder Smash 3 and 2GG: Switchfest). Unlike past iterations, Japan is also supported with a consistent network of major and super-regional events in-country, with a very high volume of events in Japan considered B-tier (all five Sumabato events) and A-tier (all four Umebura events.)
Two S-Tiers, One Weekend
The likely factor influencing the massive attendance from Japan at 2GG: Kongo Saga is the fact that EVO Japan 2020 is being held on the same weekend as GENESIS 7.
GENESIS has been the standard early-year place of attendance for Japan in recent years, but an in-country EVO event is likely too much to pass up. This is especially true when EVO Japan 2020 will likely be significantly more valuable to the PGR rankings due to its extremely high attendance. With international modifiers, it seems likely that it will be a maxed-out S-Tier, the third of its kind after EVO 2019 and SSC 2019.
As a result, the typical attendance we’d see from Japan seems to have flowed over into December’s Kongo Saga. This is very beneficial for them, as they will also have Umebura Japan Major 2020, another event with a high entrant cap that essentially assures S-Tier status. This will make Japan the first country besides the United States to have multiple S-Tiers in one season.
Making the Bid at 2GG: Kongo Saga.
While Japan has solidified many spots on the PGR due to extensive U.S. presence and a large number of in-country majors, 2GG: Kongo Saga will still be a major opportunity for a few to pad out their records, or even let borderline players slip on to the end-of-year top 50.
The twenty-one players in attendance at this weekend’s major event -
Zackray - winner of The Big House 9 and Umebura SP7. Ranked 12th on the PGRUv1.
Shuton - winner of 2GG: Prime Saga and Umebura SP5. Ranked 5th on the PGRUv1.
Takuto “Kameme” Ono - winner of Umebura Japan Major. Ranked 19th on the PGRUv1.
Takuma “Tea” Hirooka - winner of Thunder Smash 3. Ranked 15th on the PGRUv1.
Yuta “Abadango” Kawamura - winner of Umebura SP4. Ranked 40th on the PGRUv1.
Kengo “KEN” Suzuki - runner up of Umebura SP7. Unranked on the PGRUv1.
“ProtoBanham” - runner up of Umebura Japan Major, 5th place at EVO 2019. Ranked 23rd on the PGRUv1.
Ishiguro “Raito” Tetsuya - 5th place at EVO 2019, 3rd place at Umebura SP7. Ranked 20th on the PGRUv1.
Yuta “Nietono” Uejima - winner of Umebura SP3, 9th place at EVO 2019. Ranked 45th on the PGRUv1.
“Kuro” - winner of Umebura SP6. Unranked on the PGRUv1.
Isami “T” Ikeda - 4th at Umebura SP7. Ranked 47th on the PGRUv1.
Shimizu “Umeki” Masaki - 3rd at Umebura SP6. Ranked 42nd on the PGRUv1.
Tsubasa “Tsu” Takuma - 5th at Umebura Japan Major. Ranked 44th on the PGRUv1.
Seisuke “Kome” Komeda - 4th at 2GG: Switchfest. Unranked on the PGRUv1.
“Lea” - 5th at Umebura SP6, 9th at Frostbite 2019. Ranked 30th on the PGRUv1.
“Gackt” - 5th at Umebura SP 4. Unranked on the PGRUv1.
Tomoki “kept” Ikeda - 7th at Umebura SP 5 and the best active Villager. Unranked on the PGRUv1.
“Huto” - 3rd at EGS Cup 2 and contender for best active Banjo. Unranked on the PGRUv1.
Seima “Eim” Tomonoh - Top Joker main. Notably won Smash for Wii U’s final major. Unranked on the PGRUv1.
Kaito "Shogun" Kawasaki - Top Snake main. Notably placed 17th at EVO. Unranked on the PGRUv1.
“Twinkle” - Japan’s top Diddy Kong. Unranked on the PGRUv1.
Conclusion: What’s at Stake?
Many of the players listed are already almost certainly going to be PGR. For them, it’s a matter of how high.
Zackray’s set records & seasonal placements put him in a good position for 6th, but he could have an argument for 5th if Tweek underperforms and Zackray wins the event. Conversely, a strong showing from Light or Dabuz and a dud run from Zackray could see him slip off to 7th or 8th.
This is one example, but what’s most interesting are the borderline cases. Umeki, Gackt, and Lea all have the groundwork to be PGR, but lack the quantity of wins that would likely be necessary or have poor runs in their seasons that stifle their chances. Kongo Saga is the last chance for these players to make PGR this season.
Additionally, players like Eim or Huto could see their fortunes change with an exceptional and unexpected run. Neither are likely to be ranked as is, but we’ve seen several examples of wonder runs that change fortunes quickly. Kuro is notably a beneficiary of this with his winning run at Umebura SP6. Could Eim be the next?
Of course, there’s one last question worth posing. What’s at stake in the grand scheme of things?
Well, while Japan will be getting two of the next season’s biggest events, many interim tournaments will be happening that help shape future rankings. A high number of Japanese players on the PGR would benefit them greatly, as it would mean Sumabato and Umebura events have increased value in following seasons. The long term success of Japan could be aided greatly by a good performance at Kongo Saga. It would lay the groundwork for even more Japanese players on future PGR lists since they’d be able to increasingly rely on in-country performances.
By next Monday, Japan’s fortunes could be even richer than they are right now.
