Is "Fox" really the future of this metagame?

[1MachGO]

At face value, the 20XX meme isn't necessarily morbid but it seems that this metagame is starting to give it merit.

One important thing to note about Fox's competitive history is that Evo 2013 marks the first time he successfully won a national. A feat that took 10+ years and (arguably) the most talented player in the community to accomplish. While you can argue back and forth whether or not this event will reoccur, it is certain that Fox's competitive success and popularity is rising.

When you look at the top 8 for Evo and Apex 2013, the character diversity is relatively high. Compare this to Apex 2014 or even ROM 7 and Fox is far more prevalent common in the top 8. Additionally, we are seeing main switching (Hax), rising stars (Fiction), and our top "5" possibly becoming a top "6" (Leffen)

So here is the discussion driving question:

Is this metagame trend natural or forced?

In other words, is Fox really the definitive, best character in the game or is it really just a self-fulfilling prophecy? People have been touting that Fox is the best character in this game for years; but is that a result of his toolset or his popularity fostering a superior metagame development?

 

[phish-it]

What constitutes X character to be win a national? Does someone need to exclusively use that single character through the entire bracket? Is this feat void if they use multiple characters through the tourney yet still win it? Also what is the dividing line on whether a tournament is considered a national or not?

Point is, Evo 2013 is certainly not the first time Fox Mcloud has won a national regardless.

In Super Smash Bros. Melee as a whole, I don't think there is any arguing over Fox not being the best character in the game. When you take into account singles, and teams, and all the crazy stages in the game as a whole he is just predominately better overall. If you refer to specifically singles with the current ruleset, there could be some debate. I think Falco is more or less equal to Fox in singles under this circumstance for example.

Fox might be the most overplayed character, and that undoubtedly helped advance his metagame, but despite being the 'best' character with a developed metagame his performance is inherently skewed do to people also knowing how to play against him.

 

[-ShadowPhoenix-]

I feel like the 20XX meme has ironically damaged the metagame more than the character itself. I doubt we'd have this many fox mains without all the 20XX praise.

 

[EPsilon933]

If Melee had the intense competition and training that Starcraft has, Fox would be the only character to ever play. But we don't have camps where players practice like 14 hours/day, so

 

[1MachGO]

What constitutes X character to be win a national? Does someone need to exclusively use that single character through the entire bracket? Is this feat void if they use multiple characters through the tourney yet still win it? Also what is the dividing line on whether a tournament is considered a national or not?

Point is, Evo 2013 is certainly not the first time Fox Mcloud has won a national regardless.

In Super Smash Bros. Melee as a whole, I don't think there is any arguing over Fox not being the best character in the game. When you take into account singles, and teams, and all the crazy stages in the game as a whole he is just predominately better overall. If you refer to specifically singles with the current ruleset, there could be some debate. I think Falco is more or less equal to Fox in singles under this circumstance for example.

Fox might be the most overplayed character, and that undoubtedly helped advance his metagame, but despite being the 'best' character with a developed metagame his performance is inherently skewed do to people also knowing how to play against him.

I guess the grounds would be on consistent usage of a character in singles bracket i.e. the main. Evo comes closest to meeting that criteria since Fox was "mained" against the tournament's strongest competition.

With that said, I think your observation at the end is really interesting. There is definitely this struggle of character knowledge which can ultimately create balance within a metagame. However, I think it goes without saying that the scale is tipped in Fox's favor and his strategy is developing at a faster rate than counter strategies. I just hope it doesn't continue down this path.

 

[KirbyKaze]

I think dual-maining is the real 20XX and Fox happens to be a really simple character to play once you get past his technical barrier.

Because there's no stage ban in Bo5s you can get stuck in some really dumb character-stage combinations against people who play characters with slanted matchup spreads or if your character can be chain-grabbed. I think people are realizing this and responding by adding characters to round out their matchup spreads to avoid getting locked into something like Fox vs M2K on FD, Falcon vs Fox/Sheik on FOD, Peach vs Fox on PS, or Sheik vs an elite ICs on FD. FWIW I don't think some of the accepted "bad" stage-character combinations for certain characters are actually THAT bad, or even warrant a counterpick. But depending on your region it may be tough to practice vs certain things so it can be reasonable to combat this by switching to a character with a stronger base game vs what you can't practice against, as opposed to a character where there's more nuances and playing the matchup requires more situational knowledge & attention to detail.

 

[Metal Gear Salad]

Fox era is hella boring and I really hope it doesn't stick.

 

[KirbyKaze]

I don't think you have much to worry about what with the top 3 players currently being Dr. PP, Mango, and M2K (unordered). I don't think any of them are going to lose to a Fox player anytime soon except maybe leffen.

Personally I think maining Fox is a pretty bold decision in this metagame, what with all the Falcos that can do stock combos off shines in a bunch of situations, when the ruleset states there's no stage ban in a bo5 so you're stuck fighting people like Axe or M2K on FD, when his best stage vs a lot of chars isn't available game one at all but anyone with a CG on him can potentially get it on the opening match unless he auto-bans it, and when his non-grab attacks are becoming increasingly flimsy vs players with good SDI habits and awareness (which reduces his damage output a lot and can result in him getting counterattacked & death comboed for HITTING his opponent with, say, a dair -- which he needs to beat crouching because his other air-to-ground aerials are soft vs crouch). And to round this out, his u-throw only combos like 10 of the top 16 characters with any certainty or consistency at all... I think his u-throw works on Fox, Falco, Pikachu, Sheik, Marth, Puff to ~100%, Falcon from 30%+ or something, and aside from maybe ICs (not sure if they're like Peach or not) that's all I can think of. Peach can always do something to interrupt or evade him if she DIs behind him on the u-throw, Ganon is the same AFAIK, the three Marios & Samus can always do something first (never true combos), and I'm not sure about the characters lower than that except Zelda (u-throw doesn't combo) and Kirby / G&W (u-throw combos). So he's got issues with obscure characters like Samus, Luigi, Pikachu, & Doc if he doesn't know the matchup and his fragility does not give him much time to learn what his playbook is vs them either. This is where being combo food can just suck sometimes.

I really think that when you break him down, Fox has a lot of weaknesses. And they aren't just solved by being more technical because a lot of them are flaws with his attacks themselves. It's true he can protect himself really well with his movement and he's got the most powerful positional tools around the stage as a whole (and that's stupidly powerful when you think about it). That said, his biggest weaknesses (he's got weak damage output most of the time & his close-range attacks have vulnerabilities to certain defenses) make him really tough to use at the highest levels of play sometimes because he gets punished for small slips probably harder than any character due to his low knockdown percent and combo physics. And his attacks are low range, which means he can't protect his dair or something from SDI --> d-smash from Peach on the basis of the attack's range but rather his own movement trajectory. Which limits how much he can follow up, when he's already got issues racking damage compared to the other top characters.

Fox is amazing but he's not the be all, end all. He's just really good and has certain conveniences like safe-ish attacks into a shield, a low commitment full-screen projectile, really high quality vertical KO tools, a 0% gimp tool that's not absurd to hit, and a good way back from the ledge. Admittedly, those luxuries help him a lot. But they should never make you overlook the exploitable parts of his character either. And there's a lot to Fox you can exploit. The fact that M2K, arguably the most planned & structured of the elite players, has had near-uncontested dominance against this character for years on years suggests to me there really is a formula.

 

[mas_torque]

I think Fox is heavily overplayed. Watching ROM7 there were a lot of people who could do things with Fox, but simply had no ability to convert harder than a drill shine, uthrow uair, or nair/bairplane. His punish game is ****ing amazing, but hard to make use of so it mostly boils down to trying to hold center stage which doesn't even work half the time especially in dittos. If 20XX is going to happen, everyone needs to be more creative. Players who make use of Fox's full moveset are so much fun to watch, while also having terrifying punish games. Chillin was the first player to make me realize this because of his incredible use of utilt. If people would choose a character that truly fit their playstyle, I think the cast would become more balanced tier wise.

I play Fox just to cheese but whilst playing friendlies I made someone at a tourney yesterday call a friend over because I got like 84% off one punish by using more than drill shines and nairs. His tilts aren't utilized nearly enough. Dtilt is so good.

 

[Signia]

The Marths have been beaten into the ground, so their prey, the elusive pro fox main, has grown in number, without actually becoming more fit to survive. With this, and the return of the king, the fox-hunter Marths will rise....

 

[X WaNtEd X]

So long as FD is legal, Marth will always be viable

 

[JKJ]

KirbyKaze for best poster of all time. 10/10 would bang that post.

 

[Jarbinks9/11]

I think Fox is heavily overplayed. Watching ROM7 there were a lot of people who could do things with Fox, but simply had no ability to convert harder than a drill shine, uthrow uair, or nair/bairplane. His punish game is ****ing amazing, but hard to make use of so it mostly boils down to trying to hold center stage which doesn't even work half the time especially in dittos. If 20XX is going to happen, everyone needs to be more creative. Players who make use of Fox's full moveset are so much fun to watch, while also having terrifying punish games. Chillin was the first player to make me realize this because of his incredible use of utilt. If people would choose a character that truly fit their playstyle, I think the cast would become more balanced tier wise.

I play Fox just to cheese but whilst playing friendlies I made someone at a tourney yesterday call a friend over because I got like 84% off one punish by using more than drill shines and nairs. His tilts aren't utilized nearly enough. Dtilt is so good.

How do you punish from a dtilt. He has tons of lag afterwards in proportion to his other attacks and since he doesnt have a falcon uair he cant really convert off of it if they di away. If you said utilt that wouldve been fine but fox really doesnt have an outstanding punish game outside of 3-4 hit chains and uthrow-uair chains

 

[Pixel]

Honestly, regardless of the intricacies of his strengths/weaknesses/punish game etc., there will always be Fox mains due to him being a, relatively speaking, well rounded character.

Plus people like me who like Fox and will play Fox just because he's Fox.

 

[SAUS]

Honestly, regardless of the intricacies of his strengths/weaknesses/punish game etc., there will always be Fox mains due to him being a, relatively speaking, well rounded character.

Plus people like me who like Fox and will play Fox just because he's Fox.

There's no doubt that this is the case. Fox is an extremely solid character, it's just that he isn't so strong that he will eventually render the rest of the cast obsolete.

 

[Massive]

Fox has been "the future of the metagame" as long as there has been a metagame.

He was originally (2004ish) so technically demanding that he was theorized to be the best character, but was just too difficult to play at that level given the prevailing metagame.
With the current metgame, most of his technical demands can be met and he has done very well, but the specter of his (likely still unmet) technical ceiling is still there (as it is with several other characters).

tl;dr: we still haven't hit fox's technical ceiling almost 13 years into melee's run.

 

[caLviN-1260]

I don't think Fox will be this massive movement and everyone will main him, it'll take away from a lot of the fun I think. But I think a lot of people recognize how useful he can be. A pocket Fox can be a great counter pick.

 

[Bones0]

Great post KK.

Too bad you just copied everything I've been saying for like 2 years now.

 

[SlayerZaxy]

Once everyone has become as proficient against all the other characters as they are against fox, 20XX will be upon us. Untill then, low and mid tiers will have the advantage of a more familiar matchup against high tiers while the high tiers don't know what to expect. Of course in best of 5s the opponent has enough matches to adapt, which is partly the reason why mid tiers can get through pools and bracket but seldomly win grand finals.

 

[DerfMidWest]

fox is good.
But whatever.
It's a trend.
Falco used to be a big thing.
So was marth.
and Sheik.

metagame evolves. Pretty soon, the majority of top fox players will fade away, and then people will get discouraged.

 

[gravy]

War on 20xx

 

[krazyzyko]

Melee's Fox will never be as dominant as MK because of his technical ceiling and that he is combo food. So it takes alot from a Fox main to be consistant by only maining him. Especially during long tourneys and other high tiers which are still a threat yet don't need the player to press 9,001 buttons per second.