Here's my personal guides to various Roy matchups. These are my own musings as a silver-level netplayer and local tourney junkie. I have about 5K hours in SSBM and another 2K hours in SSBPM. Bowser is my main, though Roy is my favorite.
A word on my physics ratings:
I've created 5 ratings merged from from several data sources. They're all normalized against the roster average. For reference: the highest, average, and lowest character for each stat is as follows:
Weight:
Bowser 1.31 / Sheik 1.00 / Jiggs 0.67
Jump height:
Falco 1.51 / DK 1.00 / Jiggs 0.63
Wavedash Effectiveness: (a combination of jumpsquat and traction):
Luigi 10.00 / ZSS 1.00 / Link 0.47
Fallspeed (a combination of gravity and terminal velocity):
Fox 3.11 / Pikachu 1.00 / Jiggs 0.40
SHFF speed (jumpsquat plus aerial frames of short-hop-fast-fall):
Fox 1.50 / DK 1.00 / Samus 0.68
MUs are discussed in order of my familiarity with them.
Each MU will contain the following chapters:
favorability
stage selection
physics/stats
neutral game
offense
edgeguard
defense
recovery
Ike
Other matchups coming someday. . .
A word on my physics ratings:
I've created 5 ratings merged from from several data sources. They're all normalized against the roster average. For reference: the highest, average, and lowest character for each stat is as follows:
Weight:
Bowser 1.31 / Sheik 1.00 / Jiggs 0.67
Jump height:
Falco 1.51 / DK 1.00 / Jiggs 0.63
Wavedash Effectiveness: (a combination of jumpsquat and traction):
Luigi 10.00 / ZSS 1.00 / Link 0.47
Fallspeed (a combination of gravity and terminal velocity):
Fox 3.11 / Pikachu 1.00 / Jiggs 0.40
SHFF speed (jumpsquat plus aerial frames of short-hop-fast-fall):
Fox 1.50 / DK 1.00 / Samus 0.68
MUs are discussed in order of my familiarity with them.
Each MU will contain the following chapters:
favorability
stage selection
physics/stats
neutral game
offense
edgeguard
defense
recovery
Ike
Favorability: +1
Roy can win the neutral game pretty reliably here. Ike has a lot of trouble with Roy's Fair and Uair. downB is very useful in this MU, as Ike's aerials are often heavily telegraphed, and Ike relies on disjoints more than hitstun for much of his combo game. Ike has serious difficulty recovering vs. Roy.
Ike has a devastating throw game vs. Roy. With a very respectable grab range, many guaranteed followups, and 3 useful throws with quick animations, DI mixups will be a big problem for Roy. Ike has a solid edgeguarding game vs. Roy.
Stage Selection:
Roy kills Ike off the side. Ike kills Roy off the bottom. Look for narrow blast zones.
Roy loves platforms on both offense and defense. Look for many platforms.
Ike loves vertical ledge walls for his recovery. Look for thin ledges.
Ike jumps much higher than Roy. Look for low plaftorms.
Ike has better mobility. Pick a small stage.
Breakdown:
Yoshi's Story: +3 (Ike can't use the walls to recover since the bottom blast zone is so shallow)
PS2: +2
Smashville: +1
Wario Land: +1
Castle Siege: +1
FOD: +1 (really low platforms are great for Roy)
Green Hill Zone: even
Yoshi's Island: even
Battlefield: even
Distant Planet: -1
Dreamland: -1
Norfair: -2
Delfino Secret: -2
Final Destination: -3
Ike's Stats:
Weight 1.17 (heavy)
Jump 0.96 (average)
Wavedash 0.7 (poor)
Fallspeed 1.02 (average)
SHFF 0.93 (mediocre)
holistic analysis, scale of 1-5:
mobility: 4
quickness: 1
reach: 5
power: 4
recovery: 4
edgeguard: 3
combo power: 2
footsies: 2
Neutral Game:
Roy has a solid advantage here.
Your objective is to stay grounded and threaten space with your dtilt, sideB, and possibly ftilt. Edge Ike toward the ledge by mixing these pokes into your DD. Force Ike to take to the air or use his sideB, then you use nair, fair, or sideB to poke him out and begin your offense. Don't get into his jab range. Don't let him get far enough away to start a sideB safely.
Ike has poor OOS options, with nair and bair both hitting on frame 12 (including jumpsquat). If you cross him up with dair or uair on shield, you should be able to dash away safely.
How to deal with Ike's neutral: Ike's biggest neutral options are:
SHFFL aerials: these are relatively safe on shield when combined with his jab. His fair is slow; you should be able to antiair this with nair, fair, dtilt, or downB. His nair has poor reach. OOS WD is your friend here. When crossed up, use OOS dair or bair.
sideB: Ike can safely start this whenever he sneaks out of range in neutral. If he tries it when too close, run at him and nair. If he starts it far away, you're at a disadvantage, but your best bet is normally to jump onto a platform and go over him, then reset to neutral. Another strategy is to run as far away as you can, which will give you time to react and force Ike to WD back out of his sideB. If you're unable to escape, the best way to challenge it is to DD and then nair to try to intercept it. Don't try any grounded options against sideB; you'll lose out almost every time if you stay stationary. dtilt is your worst option here.
jab: If you stray too close, Ike will be able to use his excellent jab. He can also jab out of certain of his aerials if you attempt to shield-grab. Jab1 has great range and jab2 can easily link into grabs. At low percents, you can CC jab2 and counter with dsmash (not dtilt). At higher percents, you have to SDI away. At very high percents and near ledge, jab3 can KO, so you need to use zero DI against jab3. But jab3 should never normally connect if you SDI jab1 and jab2 properly.
Offense:
Once you get Ike into the air, his big hurtbox and average fallspeed combine to make him a good combo target for Roy. Ike's aerial defensive options are downB (frame 6) and nair (frame 7). His nair takes forever to swing downard, so if you stay under him with uair, you're pretty safe. Roy's fair has such low BKB that you have to be careful when he's below 30% or so; the hitstun is very short.
Edgeguard:
Roy has a better than average chance to edgeguard Ike. Your objective should be to stop Ike's sideB, forcing the upB which is easy to edgeguard.
Ike's sideB: If he comes low to use his walljump, you just have to wait him out. If you're onstage, be patient or take the ledge. If you're on ledge, refresh your iframes. If his sideB comes high, jump out and stuff him with sideB or fair--if he swings and hits you, he'll still fall helplessly and you'll be safely back onstage. If you're onstage and he tries to sideB into you, you can either ftilt or downB.
Ike's upB: Ike's upB is unusual and imtimidating for people without the MU experience. He throws his sword up through the stage in an attempt to cover his recovery. On certain stages, particularly FD, his sword hitboxes can extend really far into the stage and it can be difficult to deal with.
Onstage, you have two options:
1. (preferred) stand far from the ledge, outside the sword's range. Then dash foward and use a RC fsmash to stuff the upB.
2. stand near the ledge and shield. There's a window after the sword stops spinning in which you can counterattack before Ike begins to swing downward; you can use this window to use an OOS aerial and stuff him.
Defense:
throws:
Ike's uthrow (90°): will combo at anything below 80% or so. If you DI away, you'll eat a nair followed by another aerial and probably end up offstage. It's better to DI this throw in; you'll eat a dair but then be able to tech on the ground.
Ike's fthrow (361°) :combos into fair or even nair if you DI in or with zero DI, so you need to DI away.
Ike's bthrow (361°): combos the same as fthrow, except that you need to DI the opposite direction
Ike's dthrow (361°): can also combo, but it has a slow animation so you have time to adjust your DI.
So--how to deal with all these DI mixups? Basically, you need to hold straight down when grabbed by Ike. This should keep you safe from fthrow and bthrow. Against uthrow, you'll go straight up, which means you'll be harder for Ike to combo.
Aerial DI:
fair (361°): average knockback. use combo DI unless far offstage.
nair (60°): low knockback. always combo DI.
bair (30°): high knockback. DI up and a little in, except at very low % where you should combo DI.
dair (270°): DI straight in
uair (70°): depends on your stage position. If you are near the side blast zones, DI in and up and you'll fly completely vertical. If you're near the top (more likely), DI away and down; you'll fly at a 50° angle.
Recovery:
When offstage, you need to come in low or else you're going to eat a fair.
When you come low, the biggest threat is Ike's dair--it ends in a long sexy hitbox that will easily beat out Roy's upB for an easy gimp. Stall as long as possible while you wait for Ike to jump offstage, then slip under him with upB.
If you want to come in high as a mixup, it is possible, though risky, to stuff his fair with sideB, downB, or your own fair/nair. You can also try airdodging through Ike in certain situations.
Ike's downB can destroy you if you are reckless with your early upB. If he stays on stage, be very careful with your sweetspot. If you do hit his downB, walltech.
Roy can win the neutral game pretty reliably here. Ike has a lot of trouble with Roy's Fair and Uair. downB is very useful in this MU, as Ike's aerials are often heavily telegraphed, and Ike relies on disjoints more than hitstun for much of his combo game. Ike has serious difficulty recovering vs. Roy.
Ike has a devastating throw game vs. Roy. With a very respectable grab range, many guaranteed followups, and 3 useful throws with quick animations, DI mixups will be a big problem for Roy. Ike has a solid edgeguarding game vs. Roy.
Stage Selection:
Roy kills Ike off the side. Ike kills Roy off the bottom. Look for narrow blast zones.
Roy loves platforms on both offense and defense. Look for many platforms.
Ike loves vertical ledge walls for his recovery. Look for thin ledges.
Ike jumps much higher than Roy. Look for low plaftorms.
Ike has better mobility. Pick a small stage.
Breakdown:
Yoshi's Story: +3 (Ike can't use the walls to recover since the bottom blast zone is so shallow)
PS2: +2
Smashville: +1
Wario Land: +1
Castle Siege: +1
FOD: +1 (really low platforms are great for Roy)
Green Hill Zone: even
Yoshi's Island: even
Battlefield: even
Distant Planet: -1
Dreamland: -1
Norfair: -2
Delfino Secret: -2
Final Destination: -3
Ike's Stats:
Weight 1.17 (heavy)
Jump 0.96 (average)
Wavedash 0.7 (poor)
Fallspeed 1.02 (average)
SHFF 0.93 (mediocre)
holistic analysis, scale of 1-5:
mobility: 4
quickness: 1
reach: 5
power: 4
recovery: 4
edgeguard: 3
combo power: 2
footsies: 2
Neutral Game:
Roy has a solid advantage here.
Your objective is to stay grounded and threaten space with your dtilt, sideB, and possibly ftilt. Edge Ike toward the ledge by mixing these pokes into your DD. Force Ike to take to the air or use his sideB, then you use nair, fair, or sideB to poke him out and begin your offense. Don't get into his jab range. Don't let him get far enough away to start a sideB safely.
Ike has poor OOS options, with nair and bair both hitting on frame 12 (including jumpsquat). If you cross him up with dair or uair on shield, you should be able to dash away safely.
How to deal with Ike's neutral: Ike's biggest neutral options are:
SHFFL aerials: these are relatively safe on shield when combined with his jab. His fair is slow; you should be able to antiair this with nair, fair, dtilt, or downB. His nair has poor reach. OOS WD is your friend here. When crossed up, use OOS dair or bair.
sideB: Ike can safely start this whenever he sneaks out of range in neutral. If he tries it when too close, run at him and nair. If he starts it far away, you're at a disadvantage, but your best bet is normally to jump onto a platform and go over him, then reset to neutral. Another strategy is to run as far away as you can, which will give you time to react and force Ike to WD back out of his sideB. If you're unable to escape, the best way to challenge it is to DD and then nair to try to intercept it. Don't try any grounded options against sideB; you'll lose out almost every time if you stay stationary. dtilt is your worst option here.
jab: If you stray too close, Ike will be able to use his excellent jab. He can also jab out of certain of his aerials if you attempt to shield-grab. Jab1 has great range and jab2 can easily link into grabs. At low percents, you can CC jab2 and counter with dsmash (not dtilt). At higher percents, you have to SDI away. At very high percents and near ledge, jab3 can KO, so you need to use zero DI against jab3. But jab3 should never normally connect if you SDI jab1 and jab2 properly.
Offense:
Once you get Ike into the air, his big hurtbox and average fallspeed combine to make him a good combo target for Roy. Ike's aerial defensive options are downB (frame 6) and nair (frame 7). His nair takes forever to swing downard, so if you stay under him with uair, you're pretty safe. Roy's fair has such low BKB that you have to be careful when he's below 30% or so; the hitstun is very short.
Edgeguard:
Roy has a better than average chance to edgeguard Ike. Your objective should be to stop Ike's sideB, forcing the upB which is easy to edgeguard.
Ike's sideB: If he comes low to use his walljump, you just have to wait him out. If you're onstage, be patient or take the ledge. If you're on ledge, refresh your iframes. If his sideB comes high, jump out and stuff him with sideB or fair--if he swings and hits you, he'll still fall helplessly and you'll be safely back onstage. If you're onstage and he tries to sideB into you, you can either ftilt or downB.
Ike's upB: Ike's upB is unusual and imtimidating for people without the MU experience. He throws his sword up through the stage in an attempt to cover his recovery. On certain stages, particularly FD, his sword hitboxes can extend really far into the stage and it can be difficult to deal with.
Onstage, you have two options:
1. (preferred) stand far from the ledge, outside the sword's range. Then dash foward and use a RC fsmash to stuff the upB.
2. stand near the ledge and shield. There's a window after the sword stops spinning in which you can counterattack before Ike begins to swing downward; you can use this window to use an OOS aerial and stuff him.
Defense:
throws:
Ike's uthrow (90°): will combo at anything below 80% or so. If you DI away, you'll eat a nair followed by another aerial and probably end up offstage. It's better to DI this throw in; you'll eat a dair but then be able to tech on the ground.
Ike's fthrow (361°) :combos into fair or even nair if you DI in or with zero DI, so you need to DI away.
Ike's bthrow (361°): combos the same as fthrow, except that you need to DI the opposite direction
Ike's dthrow (361°): can also combo, but it has a slow animation so you have time to adjust your DI.
So--how to deal with all these DI mixups? Basically, you need to hold straight down when grabbed by Ike. This should keep you safe from fthrow and bthrow. Against uthrow, you'll go straight up, which means you'll be harder for Ike to combo.
Aerial DI:
fair (361°): average knockback. use combo DI unless far offstage.
nair (60°): low knockback. always combo DI.
bair (30°): high knockback. DI up and a little in, except at very low % where you should combo DI.
dair (270°): DI straight in
uair (70°): depends on your stage position. If you are near the side blast zones, DI in and up and you'll fly completely vertical. If you're near the top (more likely), DI away and down; you'll fly at a 50° angle.
Recovery:
When offstage, you need to come in low or else you're going to eat a fair.
When you come low, the biggest threat is Ike's dair--it ends in a long sexy hitbox that will easily beat out Roy's upB for an easy gimp. Stall as long as possible while you wait for Ike to jump offstage, then slip under him with upB.
If you want to come in high as a mixup, it is possible, though risky, to stuff his fair with sideB, downB, or your own fair/nair. You can also try airdodging through Ike in certain situations.
Ike's downB can destroy you if you are reckless with your early upB. If he stays on stage, be very careful with your sweetspot. If you do hit his downB, walltech.
Other matchups coming someday. . .