Today on Theorycrafting: What Kind of Announcement Will 6 Be? I feel like with Smash there's definitely pacing and characters are revealed at certain times deliberately and strategically. Smash announcements first honestly became a thing with Brawl so let's start there.
Brawl's 2006 announcement trailer had Metaknight, Pit, ZSS, Wario, and Snake? Why? Let's break it down:
https://smashboards.com/threads/i-think-this-might-be-interesting-to-look-at-melee-1999-poll.81891/
-Metaknight. Popular but not the most wanted. A good way to start.
-Pit. Most wanted retro character.
-ZSS. Sakurai said it himself: more female representation.
-Wario. Most wanted character for Melee after Bowser and Peach. A strong ending but we can go bigger.
-Snake. First third party character. An explosive reveal. If you didn't have people's attention before, you do now.
After this, I feel Nintendo basically implemented what I'll call "Starvation Theory." If enough time passes, people will welcome just about anyone with open arms. Ike breaks the year and almost two month drought of new characters. Then it was a string of pretty big picks. Pokemon Trainer then Diddy then a slight dip with Lucas and then SONIC, Dedede, and Olimar. This basically wraps up the reveal cycle of Brawl on arguably a high note.
Next comes Smash 4. Guiding principle: start strong but not too strong. Villager fits really well here. Follow up with Megaman, the most wanted third party character, and blow the hinges off the doors. People are so excited that they're seeing spots. This is likely why Wii Fit was shown here because she probably would have been a disaster anywhere else. "Starvation Theory" comes in again. Show off a character that's wanted but not super popular. Rosalina fits this well. Next comes Little Mac, one of the most wanted characters for Smash, followed by Greninja, easier to swallow now. Next comes E3 2014. Again, go big but not the biggest. Mii Fighters very highly demanded then Palutena was the most requested female character and very popular. Pac-Man is another bombshell. This makes Robin and then Shulk easier for the general public to be alright with.
Next comes Smash 4 DLC. Mewtwo kicks things off. Not a new character but someone heavily wanted. He's then followed by the next wanted veterans Lucas and Roy. This sets things up well for Ryu as the big E3 reveal. He's not the most wanted third party character but his reveal is a big deal. CLOUD is the big deal. Like Wii Fit, we're back to the sandwich method with Smash 4's final Direct. Starts off with hard reminders that Cloud's coming, arguably Smash 4's biggest reveal and then goes with Corrin, one of the least popular reveals ever, followed by an uptick with Bayonetta. Things end on a positive note because Cloud was big enough to carry Corrin and Bayo no matter how well they were received.
Next comes Ultimate. Once again, start strong but not too strong. Inkling does this really well. E3 2018 comes. Everyone is Here! Daisy! RIDLEY! Can this game get any better?! August Smash Direct, 'ope, here comes the Belmont Boys, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K. ROOL! Things are built up pretty damn high so you have to be methodical about your next steps because, realistically, you can't keep going at this pace. As the saying goes, "let them down gently." Isabelle is a slight dip then a hard plunge with Ken, Incineroar, and, the first death of expectations, Plant. Not exactly a great place to be for the Fighter's Pass... Or is it?
My theory is that Nintendo may have done this deliberately. You all lived through it and you know morale was in the toilet after the 2018 November Direct. For Nintendo, this actually isn't a bad place to be. The bar is set pretty low so you don't even have to go with the most popular pick to cheer up the fanbase, just popular ENOUGH. This is why Joker was the perfect pick to kick off the Fighter's Pass. Not the most wanted character but totally unexpected and good enough to get people's expectations back up. Suddenly people care about the Fighter's Pass again and the money comes flowing like a tsunami.
"Starvation Theory" is kind of implemented after this and Hero is next at E3 2019. Some people are miffed but no more than 30 minutes it's BANJO AND KAZOOIE! Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen. Banjo's so big that his release makes Terry easy for the general public to process. He's not super known by a lot of people but, who cares, we just got Banjo. They kind of pulled a similar strategy to what they did with Wii Fit after Megaman. This was the best point in time for Terry to be received. Then comes Byleth... Self explanatory. Like Plant, morale and expectations are back to crawling on the floor but this is a great place to be for Nintendo.
So, now he have Season 2 on the horizon. Who is going to be 6? History has shown us that they save the biggest reveals for E3 but try to kick off reveal seasons strong but not too strong. This is why I don't think 6 is Crash or Geno. That's too strong of a start and you establish goofy high expectations. This is likely why Inkling came before Ridley, Joker before Banjo, Ryu before Cloud, etc. There's probably method to this madness.
"Hype" is a staircase in these situations, not a slingshot. Smash reveals rarely go 1 to 10, it's more gradual. For example, Joker was a 7 or 8 on average, Hero a 4 or 5, and Banjo a 10. Great, Okay, Legendary. Banjo's a tough act to follow but his shadow will likely help who is next. Terry was a step down but not as harsh as Byleth would have been. Byleth after Banjo probably would have been better but then Terry would have been a slight bump at best. Not a great look for a new third party to Smash. In a weird way, it's much more beneficial for a first party character to be poorly received than a third. A bad third party reveal could be damaging PR and business relations while a bad first party reveal can reasonably be shaken off. Byleth's a big boy/girl, they can take it, especially with all the awards Three Houses won anyways.
Now we come back to the present. What kind of character would be good for 6? Again, you don't want to throw out your aces just yet. You want a strong start but not too strong because this could screw with the flow of things. Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen so you can't go too hard and heavy right now. Following this model, this is why I mapped out my thoughts the way I did:
Waluigi - Geno - Lloyd- Dante - Crash - Master Chief
Waluigi is arguably the most middle of the road of these characters. Controversial but definitely popular but also not the most popular of these picks. Geno and Lloyd compliment each other fairly well and are fairly close to each other on the "hype" meter. Dante is arguably a bump up or down depending on who you ask. Crash is definitely a super star and Master Chief, like Dante, can go either way but definitely a high note. Either way, it ends DLC in a good place and they could announce some weird bonus character for #100 and everyone would probably be groovy with it. This all said, I think this is what Nintendo is ultimately going for: leave people satisfied, possibly wanting more in the future, but not starving and crazed for it because things ended too strongly or too poorly. Goldilocks; just right.
amiibo today and ahhhhhh it's ****ing awesome, gimme a geno amiibo
