Hi Geno Thread, I hope you all enjoyed the FP5 reveal festivities. While I think a lot of people have Fire Emblem (Enblem) fatigue, the winking trailer and Sakurai's presentation were pretty infectious. (Mr.) Sakurai clearly has a lot of love for Intelligent Systems and Fire Emblem and I think passionate Geno fans know how much more fun that makes supporting (and in Sora and Namco's case, developing) newcomers. Maybe people would have preferred that Corrin not be rectified by a better and more representative character, but if you can accept Sakurai's desire not to let a bad decision get in the way of a future good decision, then I feel like Byleth is a success.
Obviously, not very many people knew anything about Byleth being in the game until crunch time (the last week or so). This presentation was not foreseen because of the seemingly imminent Nintendo Direct. Ultimately, there clearly was a fighter attached to the rumored Three Houses stage and this detail did not reach all chains of information in equal time. We could go on and on about who is vindicated and hurt by this outcome for 5, but, honestly, I don't care either way. The speculator who is totally beholden to their intel wire lets other useful skills lapse. And the best piece of pure spec from 2019, the Mii Costume Theory, was not only left unscathed but may be the only truly egalitarian source we have for making predictions about the Fighter Pass Vol, 2 ERA - (January 29, 2020 - December 31st 2021).
Since this is the Geno Thread, let's start with Our Boy. Yep, he survived the Smash 4 costume purge. And now that the deck is reshuffled on base game spirits (as far as we know), his path toward inclusion is back on track. However, it is worth bearing in mind that Chocobo has also been saved for later. The more honest deduction from Chocobo and Geno's absence is that we will get a Square Representative of some kind in Vol 2. I think we would be remiss to forget the 7 Squares list. Geno is held over from that list, but so are Sephiroth and Crono (Sora was also on the list but, so I don't get chastised, I won't be referring to him as a Square rep.) Another character that I think has to be kept in consideration is 2B. She simply fits the bill of a character Sakurai likes to add to Smash. She is from a recent and critically acclaimed game with staying power and she has a clear path to a classically Smash moveset. One way or another, Geno will return with Square content, what remains to be seen is whether he will headline or open.
What stands out as much to me as Geno's absence is the presence of the remaining Megaman costumes from 4. Some had been speculating 5 would be a good place for Rathalos and the Hunter. And honestly, they were right I'd say: Monster Hunter fits in with the swords and sorcery aesthetic far more than Megaman.exe. I mentioned how the inevitable holdover of some Capcom costumes into the second pass hinted that we'd get another Capcom character and I said that the likely deconfirmation of Resident Evil by DLC spirits and the upcoming full deconfirmation of the Hunter via Mii Costume pack-ins had me thinking Dante is the biggest IP left for Capcom. But with the Hunter and Rathalos still in play, I think we have to be aware that the Monster Hunter series really might be too big not to get a character.
An alternate but less predicted outcome for 5 was the presence of some of the remaining Namco costumes alongside 5. Clearly, that didn't happen and Lloyd and Heihachi (and yes, sure, you too Gil) remain in play and at a standstill. You may already know my feelings about who I see as being more possible between these two, but I'll put it this way: if you don't think Sakurai is partial to jrpg characters, how do you explain the pass including not 1, not 2, but 3 of them?
I also think that we ought to keep Chosen Undead in the discussion, for some of the same reasons I think 2B could catch Sakurai's eye: he's from a game that's considered one of the best of the decade, he has a smash friendly moveset (tbh he would borrow a lot from Byleth's style of play. Actually Geno might borrow from Byleth a tad too, but let's save that for later). He is also a second party Namco character just like 2B is a 2nd party square character. This may seem like a petty detail, but Joker, Banjo, Byleth and Hero all had elements of Sakurai's HAL roots and Sora present: a little company embedded within a larger one.
In short, we seem to be set up for a pass with Square, Namco and Capcom getting new characters. Monster Hunter, Lloyd and Geno seem to be the best bets, but I caution restraint: Sakurai does seem to value the new: Dragon Quest XI, Persona 5 and Fire Emblem 3 Houses are all less than 5 years old and though of course they all signify something beyond themselves, they certainly are not as far removed from new games as Geno and Lloyd have been.
P.S. The Cuphead costume is a real shocker, it must have been an immediate response to Sans's blockbuster costume and the Switch port's excellent sales. Clearly, Microsoft and Nintendo aren't just connecting on Banjo things, though Master Chief, Steve and Cuphead are all different beasts, making it hard to see the future of this special relationship clearly.
