Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[benbron]

Interesting thing about Tails is that he appears again in the background of GHZ, but Knuckles does as well and he has a Assist and was a Mii costume in Smash 4 as well. I just don't get the logic of that unless Tails is DLC.

I'm pretty Sakurai specifically said the fighter pass characters wouldn't contain echoes, and I have trouble imagining tails as anything but an echo. Maybe an echo pack could be additional DLC down the road?

 

[RetrogamerMax]

I'm pretty Sakurai specifically said the fighter pass characters wouldn't contain echoes, and I have trouble imagining tails as anything but an echo. Maybe an echo pack could be additional DLC down the road?

Tails wouldn't be a Echo.

 

[The Anigriffin]

If and only if that's real, I know the 2ch Erdrick leak had Joker's stage listed as Mementos (the one that got Persona and Granblue stuff right), so that's another point for Erdrick's inclusion as a result.

Thing is, my bf that’s not involved in any Smash Speculation whatsoever thought Mementos was gonna be the stage after I showed them the trailer.

It honestly means nothing until Brave is revealed.

 

[Ovaltine]

Thing is, my bf that’s not involved in any Smash Speculation whatsoever thought Mementos was gonna be the stage after I showed them the trailer.

It honestly means nothing until Brave is revealed.

That's true, yeah, but it did get multiple things right. Then again, some of them were already in the rumor mill for a while and some others were easy guesses.

I guess it's still just a wait-and-see thing. Basically, it supports me thinking that Geno won't be in this DLC wave, but perhaps saved for misc. DLC or a future wave (which already has some evidence of being in progress as we speak, legality-wise).

 

[The Anigriffin]

That's true, yeah, but it did get multiple things right. Then again, some of them were already in the rumor mill for a while and some others were easy guesses.

I guess it's still just a wait-and-see thing. Basically, it supports me thinking that Geno won't be in this DLC wave, but perhaps saved for misc. DLC or a future wave (which already has some evidence of being in progress as we speak, legality-wise).

I personally think it’s gonna end up being another July 22 leak where somethings were guessed correctly but it was mostly bunk.

I just hope the thread doesn’t go Chicken Little because I can’t handle that nonsense...

 

[benbron]

I guess it's still just a wait-and-see thing. Basically, it supports me thinking that Geno won't be in this DLC wave, but perhaps saved for misc. DLC or a future wave (which already has some evidence of being in progress as we speak, legality-wise).

Just curious what evidence? Any links you can share I'd love to read. Apologies if they're already here, I'm new to smashboards.

 

[Ovaltine]

Just curious what evidence? Any links you can share I'd love to read. Apologies if they're already here, I'm new to smashboards.

Sakurai and Suda recently met up, and someone translated it to mean it's to 'discuss business'. (Why does the auto-translation say celebration party, though? Maybe Suda's celebrating his friend finally letting Travis be DLC ) I can't find the source of the translation, though, so I'd love if someone verified that for me.

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

Sakurai and Suda recently met up, and someone translated it to mean it's to 'discuss business'. (Why does the auto-translation say celebration party, though? Maybe Suda's celebrating his friend finally letting Travis be DLC ) I can't find the source of the translation, though, so I'd love if someone verified that for me.

Seeing as Suda went "I hope Travis will be in the next Smash" in an earlier interview he had with a different party, I'm not sure if it's NDA-breaking or double-speak. Or completely honest.

 

[Datboigeno]

If and only if that's real, I know the 2ch Erdrick leak had Joker's stage listed as Mementos (the one that got Persona and Granblue stuff right), so that's another point for Erdrick's inclusion as a result.

I saw a lot of people speculate it would be mementos before the "leak" surfaced. They made it sound like it was the safe/obvious choice for a Persona stage. I have no input on the matter because I've never played Persona but still.

 

[SSGuy]

I just hope the thread doesn’t go Chicken Little because I can’t handle that nonsense...

As in the sky is falling or abusive degenerate father mode?

 

[The Anigriffin]

I saw a lot of people speculate it would be mementos before the "leak" surfaced. They made it sound like it was the safe/obvious choice for a Persona stage. I have no input on the matter because I've never played Persona but still.

Also Persona 5r had a trademark created way before Joker was even announced for Smash.

As in the sky is falling or abusive degenerate father mode?

Both.

 

[The Anigriffin]

Ignore this.

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

I personally think it’s gonna end up being another July 22 leak where somethings were guessed correctly but it was mostly bunk.

I just hope the thread doesn’t go Chicken Little because I can’t handle that nonsense...

You and me both. This happens often enough.

Although the Joker thread went full-on spoiler mode, just in case.

 

[Ovaltine]

Hey, some good news, even if not Smash-related:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ni...read-ot2-new-year-new-mii.90098/post-18103762

Apparently, more evidence is surfacing that AlphaDream is doubling down on their Switch project, whatever it is, and the 3DS remakes were indeed done on the side to bide for time. That also means, if that's the case, AlphaDream has likely been working on their Switch project for the past couple of years.

Hmm... past couple of years? Maybe starting around, oh, I don't know... when Nintendo and Square saw how popular Geno was on the ballot?

It makes you think.

 

[Deleted member]

Hey, some good news, even if not Smash-related:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ni...read-ot2-new-year-new-mii.90098/post-18103762

Apparently, more evidence is surfacing that AlphaDream is doubling down on their Switch project, whatever it is, and the 3DS remakes were indeed done on the side to bide for time. That also means, if that's the case, AlphaDream has likely been working on their Switch project for the past couple of years.

Hmm... past couple of years? Maybe starting around, oh, I don't know... when Nintendo and Square saw how popular Geno was on the ballot?

It makes you think.

I want to believe.

I had a thought of Geno and Mallow possibly being worked into a remake of M&L PiT, and with large roles in the game, as opposed to just cameos.

 

[Sovereign Trinity]

Speaking of that mii costume, what's everyone's interpretation of the lack of that costume in ultimate? It feels like a notable outlier to me considering the k rool outfit is still there. Considering the chocobo hat is gone too, does that mean the simplest answer is SE just nixed mii costumes completely?

Wait, why wouldn't King K. Rool's Mii costume wouldn't be there? He is first-party so his Mii costume is staying there. I don't know if you're saying he's third-party or not, but I've seen people call King K. Rool a third-party... I really don't know why people are getting mixed up about King K. Rool being third-party and "owned" by Rare, but K. Rool is first-party. But I really wish Banjo was first-party... ahhh, if ONLY Banjo-Kazooie was owned by Nintendo. :/

Thing is, my bf that’s not involved in any Smash Speculation whatsoever thought Mementos was gonna be the stage after I showed them the trailer.

It honestly means nothing until Brave is revealed.

I read that wrong. I thought you all said mentos was going to be his stage.

 

[Deleted member]

Wait, why wouldn't King K. Rool's Mii costume wouldn't be there? He is first-party so his Mii costume is staying there. I don't know if you're saying he's third-party or not, but I've seen people call King K. Rool a third-party... I really don't know why people are getting mixed up about King K. Rool being third-party and "owned" by Rare, but K. Rool is first-party. But I really wish Banjo was first-party... ahhh, if ONLY Banjo-Kazooie was owned by Nintendo. :/

I read that wrong. I thought you all said mentos was going to be his stage.

**** MEMENTOS THIS IS HIS ACTUAL STAGE

 

[Ovaltine]

I want to believe.

I had a thought of Geno and Mallow possibly being worked into a remake of M&L PiT, and with large roles in the game, as opposed to just cameos.

I honestly doubt they would do that. I think the most likely outcome in terms of what we as a fanbase want would be a M&L game, a brand new one, with Geno and Mallow in major roles. Imagine being able to play as the plumber duo as well as Geno and Mallow. Imagine being able to mix up the four to do some wacky stuff.

Ugh. I need thaaaaat.

 

[The Anigriffin]

Hey, some good news, even if not Smash-related:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ni...read-ot2-new-year-new-mii.90098/post-18103762

Apparently, more evidence is surfacing that AlphaDream is doubling down on their Switch project, whatever it is, and the 3DS remakes were indeed done on the side to bide for time. That also means, if that's the case, AlphaDream has likely been working on their Switch project for the past couple of years.

Hmm... past couple of years? Maybe starting around, oh, I don't know... when Nintendo and Square saw how popular Geno was on the ballot?

It makes you think.

Love me some good news.

 

[Deleted member]

I honestly doubt they would do that. I think the most likely outcome in terms of what we as a fanbase want would be a M&L game, a brand new one, with Geno and Mallow in major roles. Imagine being able to play as the plumber duo as well as Geno and Mallow. Imagine being able to mix up the four to do some wacky stuff.

Ugh. I need thaaaaat.

I need it too

and badly. Harder than anyone screamed when Joker or Ridley were announced.

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

No idea what AlphaDream is going to do, so I'll keep my expectations in check. It could be a Partners in Time remake, that's all.

Or ports of the 3DS M&L remakes at worst.

 

[Deleted member]

Hey, some good news, even if not Smash-related:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ni...read-ot2-new-year-new-mii.90098/post-18103762

Apparently, more evidence is surfacing that AlphaDream is doubling down on their Switch project, whatever it is, and the 3DS remakes were indeed done on the side to bide for time. That also means, if that's the case, AlphaDream has likely been working on their Switch project for the past couple of years.

Hmm... past couple of years? Maybe starting around, oh, I don't know... when Nintendo and Square saw how popular Geno was on the ballot?

It makes you think.

Yes Please, Getting a new SMRPG or a new M&L game with Geno and Mallow would be a dream come true. Though I'm still on the Cautiously Optimistic side, and hey if it really is a return of Geno & Mallow that gives them an even better chance of being in Smash!

 

[Ovaltine]

No idea what AlphaDream is going to do, so I'll keep my expectations in check. It could be a Partners in Time remake, that's all.

Or ports of the 3DS M&L remakes at worst.

That would make no sense though. Given how they were able to churn out those 3DS ports, I highly, sincerely doubt they'd be spending all this time and hiring more people to make even more ports or remakes. On top of the fact that AD didn't seem willing to do so in a recent interview and this project will have been in the pipeline for a couple of years, that brings PiT's chances on the Switch, at least in the foreseeable future, to a near zero.

 

[Deleted member]

that brings PiT's chances on the Switch, at least in the foreseeable future, to a near zero.

I'm happy it increases the odds of AD making an SMRPG remake/sequel in the future, but, at the same time, PiT was the first Mario game I ever played, so it having a low chance to come to the Switch is really sad lol

 

[Sovereign Trinity]

Hey, some good news, even if not Smash-related:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ni...read-ot2-new-year-new-mii.90098/post-18103762

Apparently, more evidence is surfacing that AlphaDream is doubling down on their Switch project, whatever it is, and the 3DS remakes were indeed done on the side to bide for time. That also means, if that's the case, AlphaDream has likely been working on their Switch project for the past couple of years.

Hmm... past couple of years? Maybe starting around, oh, I don't know... when Nintendo and Square saw how popular Geno was on the ballot?

It makes you think.

While Joker is the 1st DLC fighter pack, wha- wha- wha- wha- what if Geno and Mallow are coming to Smash in the 2nd DLC fighter pack? Just kidding, I wish we could get both.

It really makes sense because everyone's saying most of the AlphaDream employees are the ones that worked on SMRPG. If we are getting a SMRPG remake on the Switch, I am expecting a slightly extended story with Luigi as a partner. Now I realized why Luigi PROBABLY-POSSIBLY didn't make it with a larger role, and my guess is Square didn't get the full rights to use him. Not once was the word "Luigi" mentioned in text, his APPEARANCE was only in the end credits and only had one line in the game without his name shown; in the Japanese version, "Luigi" was one of Dr. Topper's answers but the question asks who is the ultimate enemy in the adventure, which is quite odd, and my guess is Square didn't get the full rights to use Luigi. Luigi was in the instruction booklet but still not once was his name mentioned. Luigi was also shown in beta footage, but he was removed for some reason. I don't know what happened to Luigi, but my guess is it had to do with ownership issues. If I couldn't choose Luigi as a partner, I'd so choose Jinx.

But perhaps my hypothesis was right from weeks ago, what if Nintendo did get the rights to SMRPG and gave them to AlphaDream to work on?

 

[Ze Diglett]

Hey, some good news, even if not Smash-related:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ni...read-ot2-new-year-new-mii.90098/post-18103762

Apparently, more evidence is surfacing that AlphaDream is doubling down on their Switch project, whatever it is, and the 3DS remakes were indeed done on the side to bide for time. That also means, if that's the case, AlphaDream has likely been working on their Switch project for the past couple of years.

Hmm... past couple of years? Maybe starting around, oh, I don't know... when Nintendo and Square saw how popular Geno was on the ballot?

It makes you think.

Ooh, now that is interesting. Even if it doesn't end up being anything SMRPG-related, I'm always interested in what AlphaDream is up to, and a new Mario RPG period would pretty much make my year at this point. (Unless it's Sticker Star 3, of course.) It feels like it's been so long since the last truly good Mario RPG...

 

[Datboigeno]

Hey, some good news, even if not Smash-related:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ni...read-ot2-new-year-new-mii.90098/post-18103762

Apparently, more evidence is surfacing that AlphaDream is doubling down on their Switch project, whatever it is, and the 3DS remakes were indeed done on the side to bide for time. That also means, if that's the case, AlphaDream has likely been working on their Switch project for the past couple of years.

Hmm... past couple of years? Maybe starting around, oh, I don't know... when Nintendo and Square saw how popular Geno was on the ballot?

It makes you think.

That'd also line up with when the Nintendo artist said that Geno had been a topic of conversation around Nintendo headquarters.

 

[The Anigriffin]

Is... Anyone gonna mention how Mementos is spelled wrong?

 

[MissingGlitch]

Is... Anyone gonna mention how Mementos is spelled wrong?

Most likely just a translation issue.

 

[The Anigriffin]

Most likely just a translation issue.

...I don't know Pooh...

 

[Sovereign Trinity]

Is... Anyone gonna mention how Mementos is spelled wrong?

"Menentoes"
Men and toes? Men IN toes?
Nemo: "Amnemonemomne."
No different language translation either?

You're right. No mentos in that name means a no-go.

 

[ForsakenM]

Hey guys, incoming wall of text, read at your own discretion. Wall is separated in case you wanna skip to other stuff.
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I'm going to make a list on why I think Erdrick is the most likely candidate out of all of the seven characters on the SE list. You're free to dissect it and do whatever you want, but I'm tired of debating Erdrick in the Geno thread when the clear consensus is "Geno is better than Erdrick and I'd rather have Geno." Nothing wrong with that inherently, but it's not something that I can really debate against. So without further ado, here's why I think Erdrick is the one:

• Previous DLC pattern. If we're looking back on the DLC 3rd party newcomers, only one of them didn't have an extended history with Nintendo dating back to NES and SNES days, and that's Bayonetta who is considered the Smash 4 poll winner. Final Fantasy was a staple NES and SNES RPG series, Street Fighter 2 was a big SNES hit (and is the inspiration for Ryu's Smash moveset), and Joker comes from Persona, which is a spinoff series of the Shin Megami Tensei series. SMT started on Super Famicom and is clearly alive and kicking today so Joker fits the criteria. He technically has a history with Nintendo, and SMT's most recent entries are on Nintendo systems. SMT 4 is on 3DS and SMT 5 is supposedly for the Switch. Since Persona is just more popular nowadays, it's going to be represented over a mainline SMT game. Dragon Quest would fulfill this criteria because of it's introduction in the NES and it's legacy since then. Couple how Nintendo continuously tries to advertise a DQ game on their systems when they can, it's clear the history with DQ and Nintendo is fairly large and it dates back to a time long forgotten. Not to say Geno or Sora or even Crono don't have histories with Nintendo, but they're not as long or they're practically not being touched again.
• Leakers. I know this is a divisive subject in this thread, but the majority opinion for insiders have pretty much agreed it's Erdrick or at least looking to be Erdrick. Tansut, a dude who guessed Cloud and denounced the Grinch leak, is saying Erdrick and has been hinting at a SE rep before Erdrick become a hot topic. It seems he has reliable connections to SE and we can cautiously accept it. Vergeben's history at guessing what Smash newcomer will be in virtually untouched as of now. While a lot of his sources ****ed him over on other subjects, Smash characters are the one subject he hasn't faltered in, and that's really the biggest thing to look out for when we are discussing newcomers. Plus he does have more than one source so he's not dead yet. If he says a character is definitely in during the 3.0.0 wait, we can expect it. Currently he is backing Erdrick. Those are the two big leakers in my eyes, but the general acceptance that Dragon Quest is in isn't something to take for granted when a lot of people don't even care about it in the west. (Something constantly repeated in this thread.) Leakbait is a possibility, but I think an honest unleakable situation is either Joker or K. Rool, who kept themselves hidden throughout a lot of leaker speculation.
• General marketing for Dragon Quest. On its own, it might not mean much, but a consistent push for Dragon Quest on Nintendo consoles is telling that the series is at least on Nintendo's minds, especially in a business aspect. If they're still working together, it's not hard to see that Erdrick is possible. Plus actually gaining access to the orchestra soundtrack for DQ11, which is exclusive to the Switch release, means Nintendo can get DQ music into Smash no problem.
• Iconic (at least in Japan). There are literal displays dedicated to Dragon Quest in Japan. Supposedly, the series is so popular that people will skip school and mug you for the game. A lot of developers at Nintendo have fond memories with Dragon Quest. It is the grand daddy of JRPGs and working with the series, while not having worldwide appeal, is certainly without a doubt legendary. The worldwide appeal thing is not really a rule to begin with.
• Brave. Yuusha, DQ3's Japanese hero's title, literally translates to Brave. Stats were an initial concern, but those can certainly change. Joker had a height stat of 15, which is Luigi's height, and Joker is certainly not the height of someone who is 15 from what we saw of his model. The stats can change, making Brave more likely to just be Erdrick. Given how the codenames were removed from the game, it seems we were never meant to see these. Brave could legit just be Yuusha.
• There's probably more I can say but it's getting late and I'm hoping you see my point by now.

So yeah. The evidence isn't conclusive, but there's a lot to say about DQ being in Smash Bros. I could explain further in-depth, but it's a pointless endeavor at this point. While I want Geno in Smash, the circumstances surrounding him are nowhere near as powerful as DQ or even Kingdom Hearts or FF7. He was a character from one game and was only kept alive by a fanbase who's results are relatively small in the grand scheme. I mean King K Rool and Ridley got into Smash because of the fans for their series, but Nintendo is pushed for DKC and Metroid for them to be relevant again. If Nintendo made plans for Geno and Super Mario RPG in general, I could see them choosing him, but I'm tired. I've been vouching for him for about six months and recent turns of events have made me see possibilities in a different light. I would love him to be in Smash, but it's just so unlikely no matter what theory I see pulled from the limited information we have.

I could be wrong and that's why I have that 1% in my inference over his chances instead of 0%. If I am wrong, I'll be cheering alongside y'all. I support both so I'm at a point where I'm bashing my head against a wall to achieve nothing for me. I'll love both getting in despite having a preference over the other. Until this is all settled, I'll just meme.


Support doesn't mean throw **** at the wall and pretend it doesn't smell. You can still want a character in Smash and admit he isn't likely this time around. Look at virtually any small-time character thread that has not broke over ten pages. Doesn't stop people from wanting the character, but they can sure stop expecting him after a certain point.

WOOOOOOOO buddy, okay! I'd been avoiding posting for a hot minute because there wasn't much going on really, but I can ignore this response no longer as it would be rude, honestly, as it was directly made to me.

First off, let me go ahead and address the bolded parts of your quote. The first parts directly contradict one another: at first you admit the evidence isn't conclusive, yet later in the same paragraph you claim that Geno's circumstances cannot compare to DQ or KH or FF7. Well, which is it? IS the evidence conclusive, in which case Geno would have less going for him than these other franchises, or is the evidence NOT conclusive and Geno has an equal or better chance? You can't have it both ways, and soon I will show you that Geno is on the same showfloor as these others.

Secondly, you have been supporting Geno for six months. We appreciate that, seriously, but a good chunk of us have supported him since the game dropped in '96. Some of us have supported him since Smash for 64 in '99 or since Melee in '01 and the biggest chunk is probably those who supported him since the Brawl speculation days in '07. Do you see the difference there? There is a MASSIVE difference in time invested in this character, and just because someone who has supported him for half a year thinks that they can prove Geno has only a 1% chance to make it isn't going to make us suddenly agree with you, ESPECIALLY when you are completely incorrect.

Now, I will address your attempt at making points. You did mostly well, but you didn't quite think them all through.

1. You are already defeated at FF because Cloud is specifically FF7. Yes, he will likely be the only FF rep in Smash and would thus represent the franchise as a whole (as well he should), but he is SPECIFICALLY FF7. FF7 has no Nintendo history up until it gets released on Switch in March. Cloud was released in Dec of 2015, way before this announcement, and thus there was no Nintendo history at the time of his announcement and release. Superimposing the history of all of FF onto him to try and fit him into your pattern is a sign of bias of your own opinions and beliefs because as far as we know, Sakurai picked him because he was requested and because he was iconic, not for his history with Nintendo...which, once again, was nonexistent until then. You then proceed to bring up how Nintendo always pushes DQ...and this is true, but has DQ ever been pushed for another game that another company made? Also, Nintendo having always pushed it means that them pushing it NOW has no more significance than when they have pushed it before, meaning that this is not a point in Erdrick's favor. History with Nintendo isn't really the pattern I see, the pattern I see is fan demand lining up with possibility with a splash of general global iconic status.

Who were the first three DLC characters in Smash history? Returning veterans Mewtwo, Lucas and Roy. Heavily demanded by players because nobody likes characters being removed. Then we got Ryu, Mr. Fighting Games himself, the face of Capcom in more recent years. Then we got Cloud, who was requested and is the protagonist of the most popular FF game even to this day, so much it's getting a remake. Then we got Corrin and nobody wanted them, which showed in the lack of money Corrin made. Then we got Bayonetta, who was heavily requested but believed to be 'to sexy for Smash' and is the second-most well-known hack-n-slash protagonist.

Now we return to Ultimate, and we look at the newcomers: Daisy was heavily requested, Ridley was requested into memedom, Simon was both requested and is from the iconic series Castlevania, King K. Rool was the second most requested character under Ridley, Isabelle is the second face of Animal Crossing and is loved by many, Ken is the American Ryu and people love him, and Incineroar is more loved and requested than you might believe (it was just that the Grinch Ruse really got people hyped up for the impossible). See, not all these characters have a huge history with Nintendo, but the ones that do are also requested. It's basically a byproduct at this point...huh, it's almost as if characters tied to Nintendo in some way become popular for some reason...couldn't be that Nintendo has video game history that surpasses all other companies and has created games or published games we love since their inception!

Keep in mind that this looks only at the DLC and the newcomers of Ultimate. If we look at the newcomers as a whole, Megaman is old Mr. Capcom and is super iconic, Pac-Man is practically Mr. Video Games before Mario was and is incredibly iconic, Sonic was the main Mario rival and is super iconic, Snake is from a violent game series that departed from Nintendo and is iconic, and for DLC for Ultimate, Joker is the main character of a JRPG that won RPG of the year and is popular despite not having the biggest fanbase rallying due to their Sony exclusivity.

2. Leakers are irrelevant to this completely. Why? Because a leaker saying 'X character is in' is not a viable source of speculation. I could right now go make a fake account on reddit and make up a leak saying Erdrick is in, but that doesn't make him any more likely and should not be used as evidence. Now I know you will probably bring up how Tansut and Vergeben have credibility by being right about things in the past. So let us address these leakers, first with Tansut. Now I won't say anything against his claim of an SE rep because I do not follow him and this could be accurate, but his relevancy with Ultimate only really came to matter when the Ken Debug Image and the fake Geno render were swirling around. This was when he popped up to say there is a image leak somewhere and Square ain't happy about it, which keep in mind it took him multiple posts to give us the complete rundown. Well we never got to see this image as it wasn't the Geno one and there weren't any others, so either it was only leaked privately within Square or it never happened. As for his credibility with Cloud, I believe he revealed that cryptic message shortly before the Direct that announced Cloud. Fun fact, it was rather cryptic, yet now with Erdrick he's just blasting it bluntly that he is in? Seems odd for someone to change their approach like that...

Also, Cloud's trailer was revealed to public figures like TheJWittz and TheCompletionist before he was revealed in the Direct, so is it really that big of a deal that he revealed Cloud so shortly before his actual reveal? How much weight does he really hold from that single claim? It seems like he has nothing else to be credited for because the only thing brought up is Cloud. We have no proof behind his claim for Erdrick, he has provided us with nothing. Thus, we cannot take his word as fact or use it as evidence.

Now, onto Vergeben. Boy, I remember the days when I praised him as the prophet, back a couple months when I get flamed and ridiculed for believing him over the Grinch Leak because 'there was no way it could be fake!' Funny, people are saying that now about Erdrick...I feel like the Smash community has learned nothing. Anyway, Vergeben does have points against him: he did not call K. Rool being in the game and he did not call Isabelle as her own character. Also, as far as my knowledge goes, there is no proof that he called Piranha Plant before the reveal, only his word that he knew afterwards...and I believe he acted the same way about Joker...hmm.

Whether you want to count characters he didn't get but also didn't say anything about against him is up to you, but it's still something to be considered because Vergeben didn't know everything about the base game. Since there were things he didn't know about the base game, when you add that up with the information I will list after this, it shows more and more that he is not perfect and cannot be blindly trusted.

First he claimed there was a Square rep in base, then he changed that to 'could be DLC', meaning he set himself up for a positive Catch-22: if there was a Square rep in base, he was right; if the Square rep was DLC, he was still right. This is a sign of someone covering their bases because they aren't sure about what they are saying. He then said the Square rep would be the first DLC rep, but then we got Joker. He tried to act like he knew about it last second and that Nintendo must have changed the reveal order to throw off leakers, but from what we know about development time and finalization of talks and licensing and how Sakurai approaches DLC as well as Joker's tease in the Feb 13th Direct being a crouching and idle animation, it's likely that Joker was the first character to be worked on and always was the first, making Vergeben once again seem to just be covering his own ass.

Add in that he said there would be Minecraft content in the base game, how he said Steve was around in playtests and how that was proven as a lie, how he was entirely incorrect on everything he said would happen in the Feb 13th Direct, and add in the pinch of how he was wrong with Dragon Ball FighterZ Second Season Pass, and you start to see the painted picture of someone who doesn't have it all together. When you also factor in that other big leakers have said he was piggybacking off of them and that he has burned his bridges with his sources and how he said that Hitagi was credible with his Smash claims that ended up being nothing but complete fodder, and how xenother has the same sources as Vergeben but yet has not accomplished anything but piggybacking off of Vergeben and you start to see why people can easily believe that Verge made have had info at one point but has been making it up as he goes along or just made really good guesswork prior and is now falling apart to keep his internet fame going.

Hopefully you can now see why 'X leaker said X character so this counts for them' doesn't work, because even the most flawless leaker could end up being wrong and often have nothing but their own word to base their claims on. Even if PolarPanda came into the thread today and said that her source told her Geno was a lock for DLC Pass 1, I would take it with a grain of salt and not use it as evidence to support that character because even with his flawless record he could STILL be wrong and has nothing but his words to show proof.

3. You bring up the marketing again, so I'll point up to my first point, but I'll also add this: Octopath Traveler was extremely successful and it's success is what would determine if Square would focus highly on the Switch or branch out to other consoles. Square has said they plan to focus their efforts on the Switch now and that they plan to make many more games for it, both new and old IPs alike. Now we know that Nintendo always pushes DQ because they are mostly a Japanese-based company and it's how in Japan, plus it's recently gotten a bit more popular overseas so why not deliver the goods while people are most likely to order them? That and since DQXI was the best-selling DQ so far in the West, making a Definitive Edition with the full experience and pushing it over here just makes sense on a business perspective and holds nothing for Erdrick. "Oh, you guys liked this game? Well, here is the SUPER DUPER COMPLETE VERSION! It has stuff you missed before! If you liked it before, you should LOVE it now!"

Here is some speculation for ya: what if the old IPs thing includes DQ, but instead of it being remakes or ports of old DQ games (like DQIII or DQVIII) but just references the DQ franchise as a whole since it is quite the old IP and DQXI S is just that: bringing over an old IP to the Switch. This would actually make sense and also holds nothing for Erdrick because without a way to make him recognizable in the states before his potential Smash reveal, he will be a flop everywhere that isn't Japan in all honesty...and that's not what you want when your biggest series is finally gaining steam in the American gaming market.

Now you do mention that they got the orchestral soundtrack for DQXI S, and I have to say I agree that this has potential to be a pro for Erdrick, because it seems to show that Nintendo or Square can work with Sugiyama and have him not be so much of a stingy asshat with his music. However, doing it once for the mainline series and doing it again for a crossover game that another company is making when Square itself is stingy in that regard AND knowing that this crossover game has other badass tracks meaning yours won't be the only ones standing out AND that this game is biggest in the US and you kinda don't like those people? It's these things that make me wonder if Nintendo could do it again for Smash, but Sakurai has never really failed before...I'd still say this is a neutral point that could lean towards being a pro for Erdrick in the sense that we were all convinced up until this point that Erdrick couldn't get quality music and therefore couldn't be in the Fighter's Pass.

4. Yes, yes, my god yes...WE AGREE THAT DQ IS ICONIC IN JAPAN! I have no idea how many times I have had to state that it is irrefutable. We get it, it's possibly the biggest thing there, though many of us fail to see why...and that is more important than you realize. Being iconic worldwide is a bigger deal than you think, as Sakurai has been documented stating that he has running out of iconic choices. Now whether or not you think that it a pro or con of Erdrick is up to personal preference at this point (either him running out of worldwide icons means Erdrick has more of a chance despite not being iconic outside of Japan, or if Sakurai is still looking for worldwide icons specifically then it hurts Erdrick) but the fact remains that Sakurai has been seeking character with worldwide iconic presence...and Erdrick doesn't carry that weight. It's also know that Sakurai adores DQIII just like most Japanese gamers and that things Sakurai likes tend to find their way into Smash somehow (Joker can be an example of this as well as some of the style choices in Ultimate), but Sakurai has been known to try and stave his bias and the last time a Japan-biased pick happened with technically with Lucas in Brawl (though people argue that Mother had a presence in the West already and Lucas was known and liked despite Mother 3 still not having an official Western release) and since then it has been nothing but either characters both sides would recognize and accept or active requested with a bit of favoring occasionally with Western audiences (as he should, to a degree, seeing as we make up most of their sales).

Yes, there is no rule, but Sakurai's words have been recorded and taken at face value and assuming no changes, Erdrick doesn't quite fit the bill here.

5. This is one that has been thrown around for a while, and I gotta say: I get it. I understand why this has such an impact on people and why it's so damning of evidence for them...but let's open our minds for a moment and really analyze this is not a 100% lock of evidence for Erdrick. Now, first let us look at what a codename is.

A codename is supposed to protect your real identity, yet still be convenient and practical in application. Now, how dumb would it being to give yourself a codename that doesn't keep your identity a secret? It would be a complete waste of time! Thus, Brave being Erdrick when even a stupid American who knows nothing of the series can google search the connection? Stupid move. Sure, Nintendo has messed up before, but in this case they might as well just made the name Erdrick instead of Brave.

Now you might being saying 'but Jack and Pakku would super obvious, so that would imply that Brave should be as well, and the most obvious tie in is Erdrick!' and to that I say...how obvious would these have been had they not been released prior to seeing these codenames? Sure, Pakku could have been an easier google search, but Jack? We may have connected it to Joker, but it wouldn't have been a solid and confident connection had he not been revealed already. There would be debate about if it really did connect to Joker and there would be theories on other characters it could be...just like what we are doing now with Erdrick and other characters like Sora, Geno, Lloyd, Yuri, Frisk/Sans, Crono.

Now you also mentioned the stats, and I have to say this is another argument you cannot put in favor of Erdrick. I'll explain why with recounting of PapaGeno's Leak Spec chat during the early days of Erdrick speculation.

"It's totally Erdrick."
"But the stats can be changed at any time and aren't indicative of any one character."
"Yeah but it's totally Erdrick, even the stats work with him!"
"But the height is so small and Erdrick is a taller man/woman."
"It could be young, chibi Erdrick! Just look at that height, it's perfect!"
"For that leak to be correct with all the alts, it has to be adult Erdrick, not child Erdrick."
"It's still Erdrick."
"Actually most of the stats outside of height do not fit, most of the stats point towards the character being a floaty zoner. Geno is shorter than Mario and would be a floaty zoner."
"Well Erdrick can use magic and other tools and weapons, so it fits him"
"Well it's been shown that Brave is rather slippery and heavy on the ground and that doesn't seem to fit a smaller swordwielder. Sora is known for having magic and being floaty with his gliding and air combos and he has a lot of ground movement yet moves better in the air, so it could be him"
"Well Erdrick has his full-body armor he can wear so he can be heavy and still use magic to be floaty and have projectiles, so it fits him"
"Wouldn't the armor prevent him from being floaty and make him a heavyweight? Also, the stats say that Brave doesn't have the metal attribute that gives certain sounds and FX when that character is mostly metal, like Megaman or ROB."
"Well...the stats can be change at any time and aren't indicative of any one character..."
"Wait a minute, I started this debate with that line and-"
"and it's STILL totally Erdrick!"
"Wait, but that makes no sense-"
"SHUT UP, IT'S ERDRICK!"

Not only did this reenactment allow you some humor at the expense of some of the ridiculous people on Papa's chat who call themselves 'debaters' but it also shows how the 'stats can change' argument favors no one and therefore cannot be used to as evidence for Erdrick's inclusion or rejection from the roster.

6. Let me bring up some points for you that you may have missed, both good and bad. For Erdrick, he is designed by Akira Toriyama and has that Dragon Ball feel, so that could win over the crowd since getting anime characters is like 0.0000001 percent possible. He also has a lot at his disposal as a JRPG character so it would be easy for him to have a unique moveset that could capture Western audiences. Also Erdrick doesn't even need a stage or music, though it would make sense for Japanese developers to push having that much DQ content, so he could easily be misc. DLC while Sakurai first focuses on heavily requested characters. This would also mean that if Sugiyama gets pissy Nintendo need not worry since no music would be involved.

Against him is that he has absolutely zero presence in the West. When you sell 2 million in the West when we have approx. 211 million gamers, sure it's a success, but it's not overwhelming so to make your franchise a household name. Add in that Erdrick isn't even IN DQXI and you have even less Western exposure to the character in a country that barely cares about the franchise to begin with, and with Ultimate clocking in at 12 million in January with the majority of sales being in the US, the crossover to reach fans is rather minuscule. Also while Erdrick has a lot to pull from, many characters that wield swords in Smash have covered a lot of the bases that can be covered, leaving the only real unique things for Erdrick being a weapon master that swaps his main weapons or a summoner to use monsters as attacks. If he does not stand alone well enough from the shadow of swordwielders in the game already, his anime artstyle will tag on and condemn him to 'another animu swordsman' and he might even be seen as a 'shill pick.' Sakurai has also been recorded saying that swordwielders are a challenge when it comes to making them unique, so it's possible that the odds against Erdrick stack up and Sakurai looks for someone else despite his love for the character.

Phew, I think that's all I got. Hopefully that addressed things well enough. END OF THE WALL!
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Apparently, Polar's source has rumored that this is the case. It's pretty interesting, but considering no one knows the DLC (or no one knew), it makes me wonder... unless the very higher-ups at NoA are aware, and stuff has trickled out.

I want everyone here to keep in mind that this is basically speculation BY Polar's source. I understand it's kinda a bad idea to speculate when you've basically have a perfect record, but this is just hopes and opinions: Polar's source has not HEARD anything that cements this, so do not come back and try to call them out later on.

Everyone in this thread except Zack:

Ahh, the good ol' days when RWBY didn't look as good but was still fun to watch.

Oh, no, not at all, I'm afraid. I kind of have an aversion from it for some personal reasons I'd rather not disclose. I'm sorry!

...This KINDA makes me wanna pry, but I won't. I say this because MHA is actually crazy good and is a return to form for shounen anime without being a complete copycat as well as being the first Superhero manga/anime to have really taken off this hard is a long time.

The way the ballot was structured, asking for the voter's gender, as well as having separate links for separate regions leads me to believe it had multiple winners.

Daisy and Isabelle may not strike you as ballot picks, but they may very well have ranked highly for Western and Japanese women respectively, for example. Ridley was probably Western men, Chrom was Japanese men, and King K. Rool won overall.

Simon was the 3rd Party Character they can use in advertising, and then Richter, Dark Samus, and Ken are who they used to pad out the "Echo Fighter" concept once they decided to make Daisy and Chrom clones.

Incineroar was 100% advertising.

Incorrect on the Tiger Mask newcomer rep, my good friend. There is nothing for Incineroar to advertise: Sun and Moon already released as well as Ultra Sun/Moon and they have both released a new Pokemon game since then without him or Gen 7 Pokemon and they are now working on what is likely Gen 8.

Thus, Incineroar is likely in the game for a multitude of reasons. However, the biggest are that we expect a new Pokemon rep each Smash and it seem sot be a thing Sakurai currently intends to keep; that the same guy within GameFreak/ThePokemonCompany that asked for Greninja asked for Incineroar because he liked the design; and the playstyle of being a true grappler has never been in Smash before, and Incineroar was the perfect opportunity.

Other reasons are that Incineroar is the most popular starter final evolution in Japan and is well loved in the West as well, Decidueye was already in Pokken so they chose a different Gen 7 rep for Smash, Ash is setup to get an Incineroar in the Sun/Moon anime, Incineroar is used in competitive play.

It could be any number of these things, but it's definitely not advertisement.

Hey, some good news, even if not Smash-related:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ni...read-ot2-new-year-new-mii.90098/post-18103762

Apparently, more evidence is surfacing that AlphaDream is doubling down on their Switch project, whatever it is, and the 3DS remakes were indeed done on the side to bide for time. That also means, if that's the case, AlphaDream has likely been working on their Switch project for the past couple of years.

Hmm... past couple of years? Maybe starting around, oh, I don't know... when Nintendo and Square saw how popular Geno was on the ballot?

It makes you think.

 

[Teeb147]

Is... Anyone gonna mention how Mementos is spelled wrong?

Most likely intentional to hide it, especially considering it's still 'jack' for joker.
I kinda would like other dataminers to look into it too from their own end tho.

I do like the idea of eating mentos while playing smash too.

 

[Ovaltine]

I want everyone here to keep in mind that this is basically speculation BY Polar's source. I understand it's kinda a bad idea to speculate when you've basically have a perfect record, but this is just hopes and opinions: Polar's source has not HEARD anything that cements this, so do not come back and try to call them out later on.

...This KINDA makes me wanna pry, but I won't. I say this because MHA is actually crazy good and is a return to form for shounen anime without being a complete copycat as well as being the first Superhero manga/anime to have really taken off this hard is a long time.

Yeah, it's pure speculation and not gospel. It's something to nosh on and nothing more. I hope no one gives Polar and her source any trash, because they really don't deserve it. Polar is such a sweetheart and their source only relays what they're heard or what they hypothesize.

As for MHA, it's nothing to do with the show itself in terms of why I have an aversion. It's more that it reminds me of someone who, uh... severely gaslit me in the past. How severely? Well, uh. I'll put it this way: I could have died.

So, yeah. Not... Not something I'm going into detail about here, haha...

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

Apparently, at least one of the 5Chan leaks mentioned that all characters would be revealed before E3. When Joker is taking forever and a day to be released.

Watching the possible panicking from the faker in question would be fun.

 

[Ovaltine]

Apparently, at least one of the 5Chan leaks mentioned that all characters would be revealed before E3. When Joker is taking forever and a day to be released.

Watching the possible panicking from the faker in question would be fun.

View attachment 193711

Yeah, pretty sure that was the Ryu/Doomguy/Steve leak, right? Wouldn't surprise me. That thing has shown itself to be so, so obviously fake and inconsistent from the original Jokerdrick leak. They didn't even use Erdrick's Japanese name like the original 5chan leak, saying Erdrick instead of Roto.

I wouldn't pay that '''leak''' any mind at all.

 

[TheCJBrine]

From what I found after seeing it being said in the Square thread, the Joker + Erdrick leak on 5chan was posted after the BlockboiNotstreetfighterAliendestroyer leak; however, the latter is most-likely fake, anyway, and I don't really know if the former was the original post or not, or if it even used Roto/Loto in place of Erdrick (I forgot).

 

[Sovereign Trinity]

I honestly doubt they would do that. I think the most likely outcome in terms of what we as a fanbase want would be a M&L game, a brand new one, with Geno and Mallow in major roles. Imagine being able to play as the plumber duo as well as Geno and Mallow. Imagine being able to mix up the four to do some wacky stuff.

Ugh. I need thaaaaat.

Paper Jam was about to have four playable characters but they removed Paper Luigi possibly because it was a hard to control all four characters or the 3DS couldn't run it. The Switch is a more powerful console, so having Mario, Luigi, Mallow, and Geno as the four main protagonists and playable with each of their button should work much better and would be sick.

 

[DaxMasterix]

Hey guys, incoming wall of text, read at your own discretion. Wall is separated in case you wanna skip to other stuff.
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WOOOOOOOO buddy, okay! I'd been avoiding posting for a hot minute because there wasn't much going on really, but I can ignore this response no longer as it would be rude, honestly, as it was directly made to me.

First off, let me go ahead and address the bolded parts of your quote. The first parts directly contradict one another: at first you admit the evidence isn't conclusive, yet later in the same paragraph you claim that Geno's circumstances cannot compare to DQ or KH or FF7. Well, which is it? IS the evidence conclusive, in which case Geno would have less going for him than these other franchises, or is the evidence NOT conclusive and Geno has an equal or better chance? You can't have it both ways, and soon I will show you that Geno is on the same showfloor as these others.

Secondly, you have been supporting Geno for six months. We appreciate that, seriously, but a good chunk of us have supported him since the game dropped in '96. Some of us have supported him since Smash for 64 in '99 or since Melee in '01 and the biggest chunk is probably those who supported him since the Brawl speculation days in '07. Do you see the difference there? There is a MASSIVE difference in time invested in this character, and just because someone who has supported him for half a year thinks that they can prove Geno has only a 1% chance to make it isn't going to make us suddenly agree with you, ESPECIALLY when you are completely incorrect.

Now, I will address your attempt at making points. You did mostly well, but you didn't quite think them all through.

1. You are already defeated at FF because Cloud is specifically FF7. Yes, he will likely be the only FF rep in Smash and would thus represent the franchise as a whole (as well he should), but he is SPECIFICALLY FF7. FF7 has no Nintendo history up until it gets released on Switch in March. Cloud was released in Dec of 2015, way before this announcement, and thus there was no Nintendo history at the time of his announcement and release. Superimposing the history of all of FF onto him to try and fit him into your pattern is a sign of bias of your own opinions and beliefs because as far as we know, Sakurai picked him because he was requested and because he was iconic, not for his history with Nintendo...which, once again, was nonexistent until then. You then proceed to bring up how Nintendo always pushes DQ...and this is true, but has DQ ever been pushed for another game that another company made? Also, Nintendo having always pushed it means that them pushing it NOW has no more significance than when they have pushed it before, meaning that this is not a point in Erdrick's favor. History with Nintendo isn't really the pattern I see, the pattern I see is fan demand lining up with possibility with a splash of general global iconic status.

Who were the first three DLC characters in Smash history? Returning veterans Mewtwo, Lucas and Roy. Heavily demanded by players because nobody likes characters being removed. Then we got Ryu, Mr. Fighting Games himself, the face of Capcom in more recent years. Then we got Cloud, who was requested and is the protagonist of the most popular FF game even to this day, so much it's getting a remake. Then we got Corrin and nobody wanted them, which showed in the lack of money Corrin made. Then we got Bayonetta, who was heavily requested but believed to be 'to sexy for Smash' and is the second-most well-known hack-n-slash protagonist.

Now we return to Ultimate, and we look at the newcomers: Daisy was heavily requested, Ridley was requested into memedom, Simon was both requested and is from the iconic series Castlevania, King K. Rool was the second most requested character under Ridley, Isabelle is the second face of Animal Crossing and is loved by many, Ken is the American Ryu and people love him, and Incineroar is more loved and requested than you might believe (it was just that the Grinch Ruse really got people hyped up for the impossible). See, not all these characters have a huge history with Nintendo, but the ones that do are also requested. It's basically a byproduct at this point...huh, it's almost as if characters tied to Nintendo in some way become popular for some reason...couldn't be that Nintendo has video game history that surpasses all other companies and has created games or published games we love since their inception!

Keep in mind that this looks only at the DLC and the newcomers of Ultimate. If we look at the newcomers as a whole, Megaman is old Mr. Capcom and is super iconic, Pac-Man is practically Mr. Video Games before Mario was and is incredibly iconic, Sonic was the main Mario rival and is super iconic, Snake is from a violent game series that departed from Nintendo and is iconic, and for DLC for Ultimate, Joker is the main character of a JRPG that won RPG of the year and is popular despite not having the biggest fanbase rallying due to their Sony exclusivity.

2. Leakers are irrelevant to this completely. Why? Because a leaker saying 'X character is in' is not a viable source of speculation. I could right now go make a fake account on reddit and make up a leak saying Erdrick is in, but that doesn't make him any more likely and should not be used as evidence. Now I know you will probably bring up how Tansut and Vergeben have credibility by being right about things in the past. So let us address these leakers, first with Tansut. Now I won't say anything against his claim of an SE rep because I do not follow him and this could be accurate, but his relevancy with Ultimate only really came to matter when the Ken Debug Image and the fake Geno render were swirling around. This was when he popped up to say there is a image leak somewhere and Square ain't happy about it, which keep in mind it took him multiple posts to give us the complete rundown. Well we never got to see this image as it wasn't the Geno one and there weren't any others, so either it was only leaked privately within Square or it never happened. As for his credibility with Cloud, I believe he revealed that cryptic message shortly before the Direct that announced Cloud. Fun fact, it was rather cryptic, yet now with Erdrick he's just blasting it bluntly that he is in? Seems odd for someone to change their approach like that...

Also, Cloud's trailer was revealed to public figures like TheJWittz and TheCompletionist before he was revealed in the Direct, so is it really that big of a deal that he revealed Cloud so shortly before his actual reveal? How much weight does he really hold from that single claim? It seems like he has nothing else to be credited for because the only thing brought up is Cloud. We have no proof behind his claim for Erdrick, he has provided us with nothing. Thus, we cannot take his word as fact or use it as evidence.

Now, onto Vergeben. Boy, I remember the days when I praised him as the prophet, back a couple months when I get flamed and ridiculed for believing him over the Grinch Leak because 'there was no way it could be fake!' Funny, people are saying that now about Erdrick...I feel like the Smash community has learned nothing. Anyway, Vergeben does have points against him: he did not call K. Rool being in the game and he did not call Isabelle as her own character. Also, as far as my knowledge goes, there is no proof that he called Piranha Plant before the reveal, only his word that he knew afterwards...and I believe he acted the same way about Joker...hmm.

Whether you want to count characters he didn't get but also didn't say anything about against him is up to you, but it's still something to be considered because Vergeben didn't know everything about the base game. Since there were things he didn't know about the base game, when you add that up with the information I will list after this, it shows more and more that he is not perfect and cannot be blindly trusted.

First he claimed there was a Square rep in base, then he changed that to 'could be DLC', meaning he set himself up for a positive Catch-22: if there was a Square rep in base, he was right; if the Square rep was DLC, he was still right. This is a sign of someone covering their bases because they aren't sure about what they are saying. He then said the Square rep would be the first DLC rep, but then we got Joker. He tried to act like he knew about it last second and that Nintendo must have changed the reveal order to throw off leakers, but from what we know about development time and finalization of talks and licensing and how Sakurai approaches DLC as well as Joker's tease in the Feb 13th Direct being a crouching and idle animation, it's likely that Joker was the first character to be worked on and always was the first, making Vergeben once again seem to just be covering his own ***.

Add in that he said there would be Minecraft content in the base game, how he said Steve was around in playtests and how that was proven as a lie, how he was entirely incorrect on everything he said would happen in the Feb 13th Direct, and add in the pinch of how he was wrong with Dragon Ball FighterZ Second Season Pass, and you start to see the painted picture of someone who doesn't have it all together. When you also factor in that other big leakers have said he was piggybacking off of them and that he has burned his bridges with his sources and how he said that Hitagi was credible with his Smash claims that ended up being nothing but complete fodder, and how xenother has the same sources as Vergeben but yet has not accomplished anything but piggybacking off of Vergeben and you start to see why people can easily believe that Verge made have had info at one point but has been making it up as he goes along or just made really good guesswork prior and is now falling apart to keep his internet fame going.

Hopefully you can now see why 'X leaker said X character so this counts for them' doesn't work, because even the most flawless leaker could end up being wrong and often have nothing but their own word to base their claims on. Even if PolarPanda came into the thread today and said that her source told her Geno was a lock for DLC Pass 1, I would take it with a grain of salt and not use it as evidence to support that character because even with his flawless record he could STILL be wrong and has nothing but his words to show proof.

3. You bring up the marketing again, so I'll point up to my first point, but I'll also add this: Octopath Traveler was extremely successful and it's success is what would determine if Square would focus highly on the Switch or branch out to other consoles. Square has said they plan to focus their efforts on the Switch now and that they plan to make many more games for it, both new and old IPs alike. Now we know that Nintendo always pushes DQ because they are mostly a Japanese-based company and it's how in Japan, plus it's recently gotten a bit more popular overseas so why not deliver the goods while people are most likely to order them? That and since DQXI was the best-selling DQ so far in the West, making a Definitive Edition with the full experience and pushing it over here just makes sense on a business perspective and holds nothing for Erdrick. "Oh, you guys liked this game? Well, here is the SUPER DUPER COMPLETE VERSION! It has stuff you missed before! If you liked it before, you should LOVE it now!"

Here is some speculation for ya: what if the old IPs thing includes DQ, but instead of it being remakes or ports of old DQ games (like DQIII or DQVIII) but just references the DQ franchise as a whole since it is quite the old IP and DQXI S is just that: bringing over an old IP to the Switch. This would actually make sense and also holds nothing for Erdrick because without a way to make him recognizable in the states before his potential Smash reveal, he will be a flop everywhere that isn't Japan in all honesty...and that's not what you want when your biggest series is finally gaining steam in the American gaming market.

Now you do mention that they got the orchestral soundtrack for DQXI S, and I have to say I agree that this has potential to be a pro for Erdrick, because it seems to show that Nintendo or Square can work with Sugiyama and have him not be so much of a stingy ****** with his music. However, doing it once for the mainline series and doing it again for a crossover game that another company is making when Square itself is stingy in that regard AND knowing that this crossover game has other badass tracks meaning yours won't be the only ones standing out AND that this game is biggest in the US and you kinda don't like those people? It's these things that make me wonder if Nintendo could do it again for Smash, but Sakurai has never really failed before...I'd still say this is a neutral point that could lean towards being a pro for Erdrick in the sense that we were all convinced up until this point that Erdrick couldn't get quality music and therefore couldn't be in the Fighter's Pass.

4. Yes, yes, my god yes...WE AGREE THAT DQ IS ICONIC IN JAPAN! I have no idea how many times I have had to state that it is irrefutable. We get it, it's possibly the biggest thing there, though many of us fail to see why...and that is more important than you realize. Being iconic worldwide is a bigger deal than you think, as Sakurai has been documented stating that he has running out of iconic choices. Now whether or not you think that it a pro or con of Erdrick is up to personal preference at this point (either him running out of worldwide icons means Erdrick has more of a chance despite not being iconic outside of Japan, or if Sakurai is still looking for worldwide icons specifically then it hurts Erdrick) but the fact remains that Sakurai has been seeking character with worldwide iconic presence...and Erdrick doesn't carry that weight. It's also know that Sakurai adores DQIII just like most Japanese gamers and that things Sakurai likes tend to find their way into Smash somehow (Joker can be an example of this as well as some of the style choices in Ultimate), but Sakurai has been known to try and stave his bias and the last time a Japan-biased pick happened with technically with Lucas in Brawl (though people argue that Mother had a presence in the West already and Lucas was known and liked despite Mother 3 still not having an official Western release) and since then it has been nothing but either characters both sides would recognize and accept or active requested with a bit of favoring occasionally with Western audiences (as he should, to a degree, seeing as we make up most of their sales).

Yes, there is no rule, but Sakurai's words have been recorded and taken at face value and assuming no changes, Erdrick doesn't quite fit the bill here.

5. This is one that has been thrown around for a while, and I gotta say: I get it. I understand why this has such an impact on people and why it's so damning of evidence for them...but let's open our minds for a moment and really analyze this is not a 100% lock of evidence for Erdrick. Now, first let us look at what a codename is.

A codename is supposed to protect your real identity, yet still be convenient and practical in application. Now, how dumb would it being to give yourself a codename that doesn't keep your identity a secret? It would be a complete waste of time! Thus, Brave being Erdrick when even a stupid American who knows nothing of the series can google search the connection? Stupid move. Sure, Nintendo has messed up before, but in this case they might as well just made the name Erdrick instead of Brave.

Now you might being saying 'but Jack and Pakku would super obvious, so that would imply that Brave should be as well, and the most obvious tie in is Erdrick!' and to that I say...how obvious would these have been had they not been released prior to seeing these codenames? Sure, Pakku could have been an easier google search, but Jack? We may have connected it to Joker, but it wouldn't have been a solid and confident connection had he not been revealed already. There would be debate about if it really did connect to Joker and there would be theories on other characters it could be...just like what we are doing now with Erdrick and other characters like Sora, Geno, Lloyd, Yuri, Frisk/Sans, Crono.

Now you also mentioned the stats, and I have to say this is another argument you cannot put in favor of Erdrick. I'll explain why with recounting of PapaGeno's Leak Spec chat during the early days of Erdrick speculation.

"It's totally Erdrick."
"But the stats can be changed at any time and aren't indicative of any one character."
"Yeah but it's totally Erdrick, even the stats work with him!"
"But the height is so small and Erdrick is a taller man/woman."
"It could be young, chibi Erdrick! Just look at that height, it's perfect!"
"For that leak to be correct with all the alts, it has to be adult Erdrick, not child Erdrick."
"It's still Erdrick."
"Actually most of the stats outside of height do not fit, most of the stats point towards the character being a floaty zoner. Geno is shorter than Mario and would be a floaty zoner."
"Well Erdrick can use magic and other tools and weapons, so it fits him"
"Well it's been shown that Brave is rather slippery and heavy on the ground and that doesn't seem to fit a smaller swordwielder. Sora is known for having magic and being floaty with his gliding and air combos and he has a lot of ground movement yet moves better in the air, so it could be him"
"Well Erdrick has his full-body armor he can wear so he can be heavy and still use magic to be floaty and have projectiles, so it fits him"
"Wouldn't the armor prevent him from being floaty and make him a heavyweight? Also, the stats say that Brave doesn't have the metal attribute that gives certain sounds and FX when that character is mostly metal, like Megaman or ROB."
"Well...the stats can be change at any time and aren't indicative of any one character..."
"Wait a minute, I started this debate with that line and-"
"and it's STILL totally Erdrick!"
"Wait, but that makes no sense-"
"SHUT UP, IT'S ERDRICK!"

Not only did this reenactment allow you some humor at the expense of some of the ridiculous people on Papa's chat who call themselves 'debaters' but it also shows how the 'stats can change' argument favors no one and therefore cannot be used to as evidence for Erdrick's inclusion or rejection from the roster.

6. Let me bring up some points for you that you may have missed, both good and bad. For Erdrick, he is designed by Akira Toriyama and has that Dragon Ball feel, so that could win over the crowd since getting anime characters is like 0.0000001 percent possible. He also has a lot at his disposal as a JRPG character so it would be easy for him to have a unique moveset that could capture Western audiences. Also Erdrick doesn't even need a stage or music, though it would make sense for Japanese developers to push having that much DQ content, so he could easily be misc. DLC while Sakurai first focuses on heavily requested characters. This would also mean that if Sugiyama gets pissy Nintendo need not worry since no music would be involved.

Against him is that he has absolutely zero presence in the West. When you sell 2 million in the West when we have approx. 211 million gamers, sure it's a success, but it's not overwhelming so to make your franchise a household name. Add in that Erdrick isn't even IN DQXI and you have even less Western exposure to the character in a country that barely cares about the franchise to begin with, and with Ultimate clocking in at 12 million in January with the majority of sales being in the US, the crossover to reach fans is rather minuscule. Also while Erdrick has a lot to pull from, many characters that wield swords in Smash have covered a lot of the bases that can be covered, leaving the only real unique things for Erdrick being a weapon master that swaps his main weapons or a summoner to use monsters as attacks. If he does not stand alone well enough from the shadow of swordwielders in the game already, his anime artstyle will tag on and condemn him to 'another animu swordsman' and he might even be seen as a 'shill pick.' Sakurai has also been recorded saying that swordwielders are a challenge when it comes to making them unique, so it's possible that the odds against Erdrick stack up and Sakurai looks for someone else despite his love for the character.

Phew, I think that's all I got. Hopefully that addressed things well enough. END OF THE WALL!
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I want everyone here to keep in mind that this is basically speculation BY Polar's source. I understand it's kinda a bad idea to speculate when you've basically have a perfect record, but this is just hopes and opinions: Polar's source has not HEARD anything that cements this, so do not come back and try to call them out later on.



Ahh, the good ol' days when RWBY didn't look as good but was still fun to watch.



...This KINDA makes me wanna pry, but I won't. I say this because MHA is actually crazy good and is a return to form for shounen anime without being a complete copycat as well as being the first Superhero manga/anime to have really taken off this hard is a long time.



Incorrect on the Tiger Mask newcomer rep, my good friend. There is nothing for Incineroar to advertise: Sun and Moon already released as well as Ultra Sun/Moon and they have both released a new Pokemon game since then without him or Gen 7 Pokemon and they are now working on what is likely Gen 8.

Thus, Incineroar is likely in the game for a multitude of reasons. However, the biggest are that we expect a new Pokemon rep each Smash and it seem sot be a thing Sakurai currently intends to keep; that the same guy within GameFreak/ThePokemonCompany that asked for Greninja asked for Incineroar because he liked the design; and the playstyle of being a true grappler has never been in Smash before, and Incineroar was the perfect opportunity.

Other reasons are that Incineroar is the most popular starter final evolution in Japan and is well loved in the West as well, Decidueye was already in Pokken so they chose a different Gen 7 rep for Smash, Ash is setup to get an Incineroar in the Sun/Moon anime, Incineroar is used in competitive play.

It could be any number of these things, but it's definitely not advertisement.

Bruh, Bolderousness just listed the pros because of a previous discussion. Very Good post but you skipped the entire context of Bolderousness' post

 

[Teeb147]

Yeah, pretty sure that was the Ryu/Doomguy/Steve leak, right? Wouldn't surprise me. That thing has shown itself to be so, so obviously fake and inconsistent from the original Jokerdrick leak. They didn't even use Erdrick's Japanese name like the original 5chan leak, saying Erdrick instead of Roto.

I wouldn't pay that '''leak''' any mind at all.

The 5ch one said Steve and Doomguy would be announced at e3. Dont think it was specified when ryu would be.

Personally I have a hard time believing steve or doomguy would get in smash. Not that they're not popular. but just saying.