XigmunGothar
Smash Cadet
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2018
- Messages
- 41
Hey Smash Community,
I have a theory about the final roster for Ultimate. I will be fair and state in advance that none of the theory is inherently new. Rather, it is a compilation of observations made by numerous reputable sources throughout the community and then backed up with some light math. Still, I believe it is insightful and has the potential to be quite accurate.
I believe the at-launch roster will have 6 more fighters – 4 newcomers and 2 echoes. They are:
I know that none of these are a huge surprise, but the evidence holds up. Here it is.
I must begin by reviewing 2 commonly known theories and introducing 2 others that I have “created” based on further observations.
How does this affect the roster count?
Six More: The 4 and 2 Hypothesis
Now back to the speculated 6.
Why These 6 Fighters? TEASERS.
Firstly, we must clarify that history has shown Sakurai loves to give teasers to the watchful fanbase. We must also remember that he is also known for carefully and deliberately considering every detail of released information.
Thus far, we have been provided with numerous suspected teasers for the game. While none of these can be proven as intentional teasers, since we are not Sakurai nor his team, the evidence is strongly in their favor.
As for the 6 that this post is all about:
That’s It?
Closing Thought.
I have a theory about the final roster for Ultimate. I will be fair and state in advance that none of the theory is inherently new. Rather, it is a compilation of observations made by numerous reputable sources throughout the community and then backed up with some light math. Still, I believe it is insightful and has the potential to be quite accurate.
I believe the at-launch roster will have 6 more fighters – 4 newcomers and 2 echoes. They are:
Ken ε (from Street Fighter)
Isaac (from Golden Sun)
Matthew ε or Felix ε (from Golden Sun) [Personally, I am guessing Matthew]
Skull Kid (from The Legend of Zelda)
Karate Man [Joe] (from Rhythm Heaven)
Geno (from Super Mario [RPG])
Isaac (from Golden Sun)
Matthew ε or Felix ε (from Golden Sun) [Personally, I am guessing Matthew]
Skull Kid (from The Legend of Zelda)
Karate Man [Joe] (from Rhythm Heaven)
Geno (from Super Mario [RPG])
I know that none of these are a huge surprise, but the evidence holds up. Here it is.
I must begin by reviewing 2 commonly known theories and introducing 2 others that I have “created” based on further observations.
Display Theories: These look at released box art and the potential character select screen.
Box Art Theory: An image of a Smash Bundle shows half of the roster on one side of a box with an assumption of the other half on the other side. The fighters are shown in numerical order, switching sides every 9 fighters. Including Isabelle, who is not shown, and doing the math, it implies there is 1 echo between Palutena (#54) and Cloud (#61) and 1 newcomer after Isabelle. The speculations have largely included Ken (as an echo of Ryu) and either Geno or Incineroar (as the newcomer).
Character Select Screen (CSS) Theory: Across the series, the CSS tends to reach or approximate a perfect rectangle. Not only is this visually appealing, but it seems that Sakurai and his team like to work in “round numbers” if it suits their goals. In fact, Smash 64 and Brawl did achieve this – the total character count (plus the random (“?”) slot in Brawl) did make such a shape. This is not to say this theory is perfect or will hold true for Ultimate, but for a game aiming to raise the stakes and maximize player options, it is worth considering.
Numerical Theories: It seems that the Smash team has a fondness for the numbers 8 and 9, especially when it comes to Ultimate. Not only do they make sense, as they are generally round and easy to work with, but both keep popping up in relation to the game.
The Theory of 8s: Sakurai has all but stated that the game will only have the Smash 64 roster upon startup. This could mean only the 8 starters from Smash 64 as opposed to the full roster of 12. A clip in the E3 Direct supports that it is just the 8.
The Theory of 9s: For one, Box Art Theory observes that the characters are placed on the box in groups of 9. Also, the numerical fighter list on the website is shown in rows of 3, thus can also be grouped by 9.
Box Art Theory: An image of a Smash Bundle shows half of the roster on one side of a box with an assumption of the other half on the other side. The fighters are shown in numerical order, switching sides every 9 fighters. Including Isabelle, who is not shown, and doing the math, it implies there is 1 echo between Palutena (#54) and Cloud (#61) and 1 newcomer after Isabelle. The speculations have largely included Ken (as an echo of Ryu) and either Geno or Incineroar (as the newcomer).
Character Select Screen (CSS) Theory: Across the series, the CSS tends to reach or approximate a perfect rectangle. Not only is this visually appealing, but it seems that Sakurai and his team like to work in “round numbers” if it suits their goals. In fact, Smash 64 and Brawl did achieve this – the total character count (plus the random (“?”) slot in Brawl) did make such a shape. This is not to say this theory is perfect or will hold true for Ultimate, but for a game aiming to raise the stakes and maximize player options, it is worth considering.
Numerical Theories: It seems that the Smash team has a fondness for the numbers 8 and 9, especially when it comes to Ultimate. Not only do they make sense, as they are generally round and easy to work with, but both keep popping up in relation to the game.
The Theory of 8s: Sakurai has all but stated that the game will only have the Smash 64 roster upon startup. This could mean only the 8 starters from Smash 64 as opposed to the full roster of 12. A clip in the E3 Direct supports that it is just the 8.
The Theory of 9s: For one, Box Art Theory observes that the characters are placed on the box in groups of 9. Also, the numerical fighter list on the website is shown in rows of 3, thus can also be grouped by 9.
How does this affect the roster count?
If all 4 of these theories have some degree of validity and weight, then we can attempt to make all forms of the roster work with the numbers 8 and/or 9. This includes the total fighter count (both with and without echoes) and an ideally rectangular CSS display (both with and without echoes as separate).
Currently, there are 68 unique fighters plus 6 echoes, thus 74 characters. However, while each of the Pokémon Trainer’s Pokémon and each type of Mii Fighter is given an official number, both are each considered 1 character and take up only 1 roster slot. In terms of the CSS, we must also recall that echoes can be shown either with or apart from the fighter they are echoing. Thus, the CSS size will always be the total number of characters (either including or not including echoes) minus 4. THEN, we add 1 for the Random Select slot. So, the current CSS size is 71sε or 65. [sε stands for “separate slots for echoes”]
Since we know more characters are coming and neither 71 nor 65 work with 8 or 9, we can count in some more fighters.
Currently, there are 68 unique fighters plus 6 echoes, thus 74 characters. However, while each of the Pokémon Trainer’s Pokémon and each type of Mii Fighter is given an official number, both are each considered 1 character and take up only 1 roster slot. In terms of the CSS, we must also recall that echoes can be shown either with or apart from the fighter they are echoing. Thus, the CSS size will always be the total number of characters (either including or not including echoes) minus 4. THEN, we add 1 for the Random Select slot. So, the current CSS size is 71sε or 65. [sε stands for “separate slots for echoes”]
Since we know more characters are coming and neither 71 nor 65 work with 8 or 9, we can count in some more fighters.
Six More: The 4 and 2 Hypothesis
By assuming a total of 6 more fighters, consisting of 4 unique newcomers and 2 echoes, the stats become more convenient.
72 unique fighters and 8 echoes make a total of 80 characters.
These are perfectly round numbers that work with the theories of 8s and 9s, not to mention looking good for game stats. In past directs, Sakurai made a point to say that the game will have 100/103 stages and over 900 songs. Don’t 72 and 80 sound nice as statistics? They do. Plus, the numbers climb even higher – to 88 or 92 – when adding in alternate costume characters (i.e. Alph, the Koopalings, and possibly male/female swaps).
Unfortunately, the CSS sizes would then be 77 sε and 69. However, the CSS does not crush the theory. The CSS has been unevenly shaped in the past, but can anything make these numbers more workable while not throwing off the aforementioned roster totals? Yes. DLC.
While these theories cannot speculate DLC characters with any degree of efficacy, 3 newcomers and 1 echo as DLC would solve the problem.
75 unique fighters and 9 echoes make a total of 84 characters. While these numbers no longer work quite as evenly, this has never been an issue in the past. In Melee, there were 20 fighters (counting Sheik) plus 6 clones – 20 is round number to use, but 26 less so. In WiiU/3DS, there were 52 fighters before DLC added 6 – 52 is easier than 58.
What about the CSS? The CSS sizes including DLC would be 81 sε and 72, which both work perfectly with the 8, 9, and CSS theories. (The Box Theory does not apply here because DLC characters would never be on the box anyway.)
72 unique fighters and 8 echoes make a total of 80 characters.
These are perfectly round numbers that work with the theories of 8s and 9s, not to mention looking good for game stats. In past directs, Sakurai made a point to say that the game will have 100/103 stages and over 900 songs. Don’t 72 and 80 sound nice as statistics? They do. Plus, the numbers climb even higher – to 88 or 92 – when adding in alternate costume characters (i.e. Alph, the Koopalings, and possibly male/female swaps).
Unfortunately, the CSS sizes would then be 77 sε and 69. However, the CSS does not crush the theory. The CSS has been unevenly shaped in the past, but can anything make these numbers more workable while not throwing off the aforementioned roster totals? Yes. DLC.
While these theories cannot speculate DLC characters with any degree of efficacy, 3 newcomers and 1 echo as DLC would solve the problem.
75 unique fighters and 9 echoes make a total of 84 characters. While these numbers no longer work quite as evenly, this has never been an issue in the past. In Melee, there were 20 fighters (counting Sheik) plus 6 clones – 20 is round number to use, but 26 less so. In WiiU/3DS, there were 52 fighters before DLC added 6 – 52 is easier than 58.
What about the CSS? The CSS sizes including DLC would be 81 sε and 72, which both work perfectly with the 8, 9, and CSS theories. (The Box Theory does not apply here because DLC characters would never be on the box anyway.)
Now back to the speculated 6.
Why These 6 Fighters? TEASERS.
Firstly, we must clarify that history has shown Sakurai loves to give teasers to the watchful fanbase. We must also remember that he is also known for carefully and deliberately considering every detail of released information.
Thus far, we have been provided with numerous suspected teasers for the game. While none of these can be proven as intentional teasers, since we are not Sakurai nor his team, the evidence is strongly in their favor.
Inkling: Three Mii costumes in Smash 4. While not a “teaser,” we knew about their playability in March before even knowing the title of Ultimate.
King K. Rool: A Mii costume in Smash 4. The E3 Direct featured Sakurai in front of a Donkey Kong Country-themed background.
Simon: While there was no specific teaser for Simon (I am not talking about leaks), the Smash x Castlevania trailer did tease Luigi’s Mansion 3 which has now been confirmed. Though not a Smash teaser and perhaps requested by Nintendo executives, this does reaffirm Sakurai’s affinity for teasers.
Isabelle: A Mii costume in Smash 4.
Chrom: Though an echo, he had a Mii costume in Smash 4.
* On a lesser note, many other characters confirmed to feature in Ultimate in a non-playable capacity did have a Mii costume in Smash 4 – Mega Man X, Proto Man, MegaMan.EXE, Zero, Flying Man, Toad, Rathalos, Ashley, Knuckles, and Takamaru.
King K. Rool: A Mii costume in Smash 4. The E3 Direct featured Sakurai in front of a Donkey Kong Country-themed background.
Simon: While there was no specific teaser for Simon (I am not talking about leaks), the Smash x Castlevania trailer did tease Luigi’s Mansion 3 which has now been confirmed. Though not a Smash teaser and perhaps requested by Nintendo executives, this does reaffirm Sakurai’s affinity for teasers.
Isabelle: A Mii costume in Smash 4.
Chrom: Though an echo, he had a Mii costume in Smash 4.
* On a lesser note, many other characters confirmed to feature in Ultimate in a non-playable capacity did have a Mii costume in Smash 4 – Mega Man X, Proto Man, MegaMan.EXE, Zero, Flying Man, Toad, Rathalos, Ashley, Knuckles, and Takamaru.
As for the 6 that this post is all about:
Ken ε (from Street Fighter) – As previously mentioned in the description of Box Art Theory, there has been speculation of an echo between Palutena (#54) and Cloud (#61) to complete a group of 9. Of the veterans in that range, the most common speculation is for Ken to echo Ryu. Often called “the original echo/clone,” Ken was created in Street Fighter to be an echo of Ryu – they are already similar by origin. Furthermore, the presence of Richter shows that characters who are already clones/echoes in their franchise of origin and/or have the capacity to round out a newcomer’s moveset are easy choices for echoes, and the Smash team is happy to utilize them as such.
Isaac (from Golden Sun) – The screenshot for the Rathalos Assist Trophy on the official site teases a strong presence from Golden Sun in the game. Rathalos, Link, Marth, and Shulk are standing in an orientation reminiscent of a Golden Sun battle. The only notable difference is the absence of a fourth fighter in place of Isaac. He did appear as an assist trophy in Brawl, but he was absent from WiiU/3DS and has not yet been confirmed to return in this capacity like Waluigi and Ashley have.
Matthew ε / Felix ε (from Golden Sun) – Both Matthew and Felix are notable characters from Golden Sun, behind Isaac. Matthew in particular is Isaac’s son and resembles his father in appearance and in-game statistics. As clarified by Box Art Theory and the resulting Ken speculation, there may not be any other echoes for characters numbered before Isabelle. Thus, it makes sense for the second echo in this theory to be from a newcomer. In addition, as with Ken, Richter’s inclusion shows that the Smash team is happy to use easy echoes.
Skull Kid (from The Legend of Zelda) – As the E3 Direct appeared to predict King K. Rool, the August Smash Direct has been speculated to predict Skull Kid. The couch seems to match the colors of Skull Kid’s clothes and the two chairs match the colors of Tatl and Tael, also from Majora’s Mask. Additionally, the heroes v. villains theme present in Ridley and King K. Rool’s trailers supports the presence of more villains, like Skull Kid. Lastly, his assist trophy has not yet been confirmed to return while a new Majora’s Mask assist trophy, Moon, has been added. There was also headgear for the Mii Fighters in Smash 4 of Majora’s Mask itself.
Karate Man [Joe] (from Rhythm Heaven) – Again referencing the King K. Rool trailer, Donkey Kong and his home have provided a teaser for Karate Man. Donkey Kong’s position lying down and the design of his TV have a striking resemblance to an image of Karate Man. Additionally, while a loose association, Karate Man is known to punch brown barrels similar to the Kongs. This may add support for teasing him in a Donkey Kong Series trailer as opposed to that of any other newcomer. [Karate Man Senior could be an alternate costume.]
Geno (from Super Mario RPG) – While not teased in content for Ultimate like the other newcomers listed here, speculation for Geno has been rampant for years. Sakurai has expressed his interest in Geno numerous times, Geno had a Mii costume in Smash 4, Ultimate marks the second Smash game with Square Enix’s cooperation, and the Super Mario Series (which is, of course, huge for Nintendo) does not yet have a newcomer or long-absent-yet-returning veteran for Ultimate, except for Daisy as an echo.
Isaac (from Golden Sun) – The screenshot for the Rathalos Assist Trophy on the official site teases a strong presence from Golden Sun in the game. Rathalos, Link, Marth, and Shulk are standing in an orientation reminiscent of a Golden Sun battle. The only notable difference is the absence of a fourth fighter in place of Isaac. He did appear as an assist trophy in Brawl, but he was absent from WiiU/3DS and has not yet been confirmed to return in this capacity like Waluigi and Ashley have.
Matthew ε / Felix ε (from Golden Sun) – Both Matthew and Felix are notable characters from Golden Sun, behind Isaac. Matthew in particular is Isaac’s son and resembles his father in appearance and in-game statistics. As clarified by Box Art Theory and the resulting Ken speculation, there may not be any other echoes for characters numbered before Isabelle. Thus, it makes sense for the second echo in this theory to be from a newcomer. In addition, as with Ken, Richter’s inclusion shows that the Smash team is happy to use easy echoes.
Skull Kid (from The Legend of Zelda) – As the E3 Direct appeared to predict King K. Rool, the August Smash Direct has been speculated to predict Skull Kid. The couch seems to match the colors of Skull Kid’s clothes and the two chairs match the colors of Tatl and Tael, also from Majora’s Mask. Additionally, the heroes v. villains theme present in Ridley and King K. Rool’s trailers supports the presence of more villains, like Skull Kid. Lastly, his assist trophy has not yet been confirmed to return while a new Majora’s Mask assist trophy, Moon, has been added. There was also headgear for the Mii Fighters in Smash 4 of Majora’s Mask itself.
Karate Man [Joe] (from Rhythm Heaven) – Again referencing the King K. Rool trailer, Donkey Kong and his home have provided a teaser for Karate Man. Donkey Kong’s position lying down and the design of his TV have a striking resemblance to an image of Karate Man. Additionally, while a loose association, Karate Man is known to punch brown barrels similar to the Kongs. This may add support for teasing him in a Donkey Kong Series trailer as opposed to that of any other newcomer. [Karate Man Senior could be an alternate costume.]
Geno (from Super Mario RPG) – While not teased in content for Ultimate like the other newcomers listed here, speculation for Geno has been rampant for years. Sakurai has expressed his interest in Geno numerous times, Geno had a Mii costume in Smash 4, Ultimate marks the second Smash game with Square Enix’s cooperation, and the Super Mario Series (which is, of course, huge for Nintendo) does not yet have a newcomer or long-absent-yet-returning veteran for Ultimate, except for Daisy as an echo.
That’s It?
What about all the other potential newcomers and echoes that have been suggested, leaked, or successful in polls? What about Shadow, Bandana Dee, Minecraft Steve, Dixie Kong, Black Shadow, Black Knight, Rex & Pyra, Elma, Incineroar, Decidueye, Impa, Ninten, Banjo & Kazooie, Sora, and Chorus Kids to name a few? Um…DLC…maybe…?
Honestly, I don’t know. My theory and all of the speculation incorporated into it could be entirely wrong. Maybe some or all of those characters are in the game. All I can say is that I constructed a theory based on the information available to me and I generally believe it holds up. The characters I cited have been teased or are highly probable for reasons I mentioned. There are only 6 because the numbers, as I personally determined best to calculate them, dictated as such. My opinions are obviously not law, but I am attempting to predict what we will see. Plus, there’s always DLC, which I have no theory to speak toward. In fact, the Smash developers likely don’t even have DLC pinned down yet.
Honestly, I don’t know. My theory and all of the speculation incorporated into it could be entirely wrong. Maybe some or all of those characters are in the game. All I can say is that I constructed a theory based on the information available to me and I generally believe it holds up. The characters I cited have been teased or are highly probable for reasons I mentioned. There are only 6 because the numbers, as I personally determined best to calculate them, dictated as such. My opinions are obviously not law, but I am attempting to predict what we will see. Plus, there’s always DLC, which I have no theory to speak toward. In fact, the Smash developers likely don’t even have DLC pinned down yet.
My last notes concern the most recent update from Sakurai and final evidence to my theory.
In his recent Famitsu column, Sakurai stated that his team may have inadvertently frontloaded new fighter reveals and that the pace would slow until release. This echoes (excuse the accidental pun) his statement during the E3 Direct not to expect too many new fighters. However, in both cases, he has remained vague and not provided any concrete number of fighters. My theory here is that his intention is to “go out with a bang;” in other words, give one final push for sales before the game’s release. I think that we could see a newcomer reveal in October, but I speculate it will be only one character – Ken. Since he is an echo of a veteran, he is quite arguably the least interesting on the list of 6. Additionally, the last reveal was a unique newcomer (Isabelle), so it is fair to have an echo next. I think the remaining 5 will all be revealed in a final Smash Direct in mid-November. Between Isaac, Matthew, Karate Man, Skull Kid, and Geno, there are 2 series yet to have a playable character in Smash and 2 series with playable characters. The Golden Sun boys represent a somewhat forgotten series and can be revealed together a la the Castlevania trailer. Karate Man brings a newer and quite popular series to Smash. Skull Kid and Geno, on the other hand, both come from huge and continually popular series, but the characters themselves come from games of the more distant past. Despite that, they have not at all been forgotten, both being extremely popular in their own right. Even more fittingly, Mario and Link were the first two characters revealed for Ultimate after Inkling, being the only 2 firmly confirmed veterans in March. So it makes sense to end with the newcomers from those respective series. All of that would definitely be an explosive Direct before the game’s release.
[One additional point. There has been a lot of talk of the suspected “Spirits” mode. While I do believe that speculation, I have nothing to say about it in particular. However, for those who know Geno and Skull Kid as characters, revealing them in a Direct discussing “spirits” seems pretty appropriate to me.]
In his recent Famitsu column, Sakurai stated that his team may have inadvertently frontloaded new fighter reveals and that the pace would slow until release. This echoes (excuse the accidental pun) his statement during the E3 Direct not to expect too many new fighters. However, in both cases, he has remained vague and not provided any concrete number of fighters. My theory here is that his intention is to “go out with a bang;” in other words, give one final push for sales before the game’s release. I think that we could see a newcomer reveal in October, but I speculate it will be only one character – Ken. Since he is an echo of a veteran, he is quite arguably the least interesting on the list of 6. Additionally, the last reveal was a unique newcomer (Isabelle), so it is fair to have an echo next. I think the remaining 5 will all be revealed in a final Smash Direct in mid-November. Between Isaac, Matthew, Karate Man, Skull Kid, and Geno, there are 2 series yet to have a playable character in Smash and 2 series with playable characters. The Golden Sun boys represent a somewhat forgotten series and can be revealed together a la the Castlevania trailer. Karate Man brings a newer and quite popular series to Smash. Skull Kid and Geno, on the other hand, both come from huge and continually popular series, but the characters themselves come from games of the more distant past. Despite that, they have not at all been forgotten, both being extremely popular in their own right. Even more fittingly, Mario and Link were the first two characters revealed for Ultimate after Inkling, being the only 2 firmly confirmed veterans in March. So it makes sense to end with the newcomers from those respective series. All of that would definitely be an explosive Direct before the game’s release.
[One additional point. There has been a lot of talk of the suspected “Spirits” mode. While I do believe that speculation, I have nothing to say about it in particular. However, for those who know Geno and Skull Kid as characters, revealing them in a Direct discussing “spirits” seems pretty appropriate to me.]
Closing Thought.
In the E3 Direct, an image that looked like a CSS was shown. Though I don’t believe it is the game’s actual CSS, it does offer some insight. The grid of fighters shown is centered around the 8 starters from Smash 64. From there, the image is filled out into 9 columns, but with some fighters missing and the rows clearly incomplete, we can apply CSS theory. Adding 2 rows both above and below those shown would create a perfect 9x9 grid – 81 character slots. As previously mentioned, 81 slots (with echoes in separate slots, as confirmed by Lucina’s appearance in the image, and including the Random slot) matches 10 more characters, with likely 6 before launch and 4 DLC.
