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Etrian Nomination Mafia - Endgame: Until the Day the Adventurers Rise Again

#HBC | Red Ryu

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So out of curiosity, when I flip town what do you think your reads would be if I was gone?

Who would your main ideas be?
Time for a Ruy way of rambling,

Nabe and Laundry would be my go to lynches.

Laundry is bugging me and my opinion on his interactions with Ryker might change depending on what he is.

To put it bluntly, I have to ask a real question.

Have Laundry or Ryker actively tried to be reading each other, or are they coasting on each other being town? If they trust each other, I get that but at this juncture I'm finding it harder to put trust in that area given how awfully incorrect they have been. Extremely consistently while leading semi town. Neither one seems to really be with the idea of thinking, is he scum or town and how confident do I feel about it. They seem confident the other is town.

I'm not in a forever catch up mood and I want to stop that and not really bother rereading the game, because I will fall behind and get lost these days with the shorter deadlines and my long hours of work.

What makes it dumb is that Soup made it very easy to lynch him, same with Pokechu. Shi was one I didn't agree since he played A-typical and why he went on Pokechu is pretty much why I would have as well. Not a fan of how he dipped but w/e. This is why I hated how Soup played how he did, he made himself extremely easy to dislike his slot and lynch it.

That's why I have a problem with how a lot of this went, but it makes sense for what Ryker was doing with Kantrip. The back and forth they had was likely not staged, if it was kudos I'll give the game to them if it was. I think the only people would would team up to do something super ballzy like all three in a pool would be if Ryker and Laundry wanted to like how Ryker used a mafia poison shot on his own scummate to get himself as a clear. I know he is willing to go for something like that if he rolled scum, but I only seeing Ryker doing this if he had full confidence he would not die for it. Ryker values his ability to stay in the game over anything else as either alignment. I'm not as much keen on this as being a team player. I'll take a bullet for the team to win but I'm not sure Ryker would take a risk like that in a vanilla game as town, as mafia he might but only with insurance. If Ryker is scum is rolled himself in there knowing he would not get lynched.

But this is assuming he is scum a lot of this is me playing into the idea Soup was onto something in the first place but in either situation what I have to come down to is this.

This is a theory and a lot of gut feelings rather than me really having anything concrete and an idea of where I would go and think about if you flipped town. And a lot of this is really going down my list and asking, if we have been this consistently wrong either we are infighting a lot or the people we think are town aren't town and if so, what do we do from there.

I need to sleep at this point I feel like my head is silly and I'm tired as everything.

I would look into those two if you flipped town but Nabe would still be my numero uno.

I'm not happy with his content and his latest post more or less confirms what I think and feel.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Laundry is my strongest town read. I have not doubted it, seeing the interactions today has not made me doubt it, and literally every push I've seen on Laundry has been "he's so townie and is doing so much for town so something has to be up" to me aside from Soup's who I just don't agree with. So as it stands, laundry being aligned with anyone is off the table for me. I have no reason to think he's scum... like, at all.

Ryker is a different situation in that I just ****ing suck at reading him. I think his contributions have been good and he has produced consistent content by asking the right questions more than anything to get people involved. I can maybe understand why people would view Ryker as not contributing by himself, but he's given us plenty of reads and thoughts + he has been transparent when he should be (ex he's said why he **** blocked Kantrip's Z vote day 1 like 4 times now and it 100% makes sense). I don't think he's scum, either.

I can absolutely not imagine them both being scum though. Like, even if I cast aside my reads, putting BOTH power players into the pool as scum with them piggybacking off of one another in thread... I'm just not going to buy that.

Nabe is just not here. I don't like that, but we're at the point where I'm not going to lynch people for just not being here when there are people like Z. If he's scum, it's through PoE for me. The few times he has been here, I've been lost with his thoughts (regardless of if I've agreed with them or not) and I'm just waiting for him to go in depth on some of them.

Disfunk is odd. I liked Disfunk's catch-up personally. I was not a fan of 3K's catch up wall that didn't provide a lot of reads. Most of what 3K did early was sit on meta stuff, dislike FE for voting him early with meta reasoning, and then sat on that literally until he replaced out. Disfunk's good catch-up post is not enough for me to town read the post when they've literally disappeared after that. This is another slot I want more from, but based on 3K's play I find the slot more scummy than Nabe's.
how do these stand now with that flip from Soup? More so the top 2.
 

Kantrip

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Alright I'm here.

Keeping in mind that we're in LyLo toMorrow if we mislynch here, I have a hard time imagining scum putting themselves in a position to get one of their own lynched this phase, but it would be diving into WIFOM to entertain that too much. Reading and thinking.
 

Dooms

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how do these stand now with that flip from Soup? More so the top 2.
Ryker and Laundry both sat on him for reasons that make sense. Soup's strongest scum read was underdeveloped and his other two reads he tried to sell yesterday were actually scummy with how inaccurate they were and contradicted what Ryker/Laundry thought. Soup flipped town, but on re-read it really didn't give me much in terms of scum reading other players. Laundry was naturally going there and Ryker was pretty much forced there yesterday. Now that Ryker is in the pool and Laundry isn't, I naturally feel inclined to say that if one of these players is scum, it's Laundry, but as it stands with no connections on the table I don't think either one is scum.
 

#HBC | Ryker

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Here. Reading. REALLY don't want to reread the entire thread, but that's what I need to do. Gonna catchup for now.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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I think disfunk is someone I want to put as a town read given the end of yesterDay and toDay.

the more I read into it the more I think he’s making genuine efforts to read into the game.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Nabe not being in either pool is partically why I also wanted to lynch him yesterday. He’s never gonna be in the hot seat nor did I think we was going to be in today’s pool.
 

#HBC | Ryker

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People should talk to me about who's definitely not aligned right now. Sell me. I'm doing some possible world analysis.
 

#HBC | Laundry

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Towniness in the
Alright I'm here.

Keeping in mind that we're in LyLo toMorrow if we mislynch here, I have a hard time imagining scum putting themselves in a position to get one of their own lynched this phase, but it would be diving into WIFOM to entertain that too much. Reading and thinking.
Conversely do you think Funko/nabe/myself is the mafia team? Doesn't that seem a little obvious?

:186:
 

#HBC | Ryker

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OKAY! So, I'm caught up and there was precious little aimed at me and precious little I'd like to interrupt. Now let's talk about scum teams and then I can move forward from there.

I still believe off of EoD1 analysis from 3K that there's no way scum 3K votes Fire instead of Shish if they are on a scum team together. This means Ruyscum =/= Disfunkscum.

Similarly, I don't think Nabe ends on the Fire wagon in that final scramble when he could've had Shish or just stayed silent as scum. Ruyscum =/= Nabescum.

In general, with the last flurry of activity from Ruy and Nabe, I find the idea of them being on a scumteam together ridiculous.

I'm looking through the wagons again now for easy eliminations.
 

#HBC | Ryker

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Day 1, I know the wagons were

Myself, 3K (Disfunk), Nabe, Shishoe on Fire (Ryu).
Z25 off in space on Kantrip.
Soup, I was also off in space and irrelevant on 3K (Disfunk)


Day 2

Soup, Laundry, and Nabe were all not voting.
Kantrip was voting me.
Everyone else was voting Pokechu. Note, however, if I recall correctly, the only reason that Laundry wasn't on that wagon was an unvote to avoid quickhammer. Z25 was the last one to slot onto that wagon.

Day 3

We gad Soup with 4 (Laundry, Myself, Z25, Ruy)
Ruy with the one (Kantrip)
And Z25 with two (Joey and Soup)
 

#HBC | Ryker

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To continue my list of players that definitely aren't aligned. I think Joey/Z25 are certainly not. If this has been a bus the entire game, grats you win. I doubt it though.
 

#HBC | Ryker

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Nabe only voted on the first wagon when every vote mattered and he ended up on the slot that wasn't townflip Shishoe, the leading candidate. He voted Ruy (then Fire).

On D2, Nabe never voted.

On D3, Nabe ****ed off again.

~~~~~~~~~~~

Fire's D1 flitted between you can lynch me if you want, I'm not helping, to sudden self-preservation mode.

D2, Ruy was on the consensus Pokechu lynch.

D3, Ruy was on the Soup lynch.


~~~~~~~~~~~~

If you can't tell from this post, these two slots are where I want to be focusing at the moment. I don't think they're scum together, but I also really doubt that we've got two townies between the two of them.

Right now, I take Kantrip to LyLo and probably lose if I'm wrong. I'm going to try and give both ends of my scum list (Z25 and Laundry) a new evaluation. That leaves Joey and Disfunk to sort unless I convince myself that there's a scum team with Nabe/Ruy paired alongside Laundry and Z25, which I doubt. Basically, it boils down to me being wrong on at least one of Joey/Disfunk/Laundry. That's what I have to parse.
 

Disfunkshunal

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precious little aimed at me
That's in part due to the fact I expected you to have a longer response to Z25 :laugh
Z25 Z25 , give me your thoughts on Nabe's comments about why the voters bailed off of him last phase.
Same question to you after he answers. I'm also curious about what you think of Joey's EoD.
 

Disfunkshunal

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Kind of a hot take -- I don't think we should lynch the scummiest today. Similar to Ryker, I was looking at a pair that I don't think is scum together, Ryu and Joey, but I do think one of them is.

We've mislynched, four times in a row so far, each time hanging the person we thought was scummiest. Fact of the matter is, we can objectively say that our judgement is off. I don't feel comfortable going with that same strategy for the next two phases when that's all we have left. I think the most effective strategy is to collectively select a pair that we thinks holds scum, and to lynch one today and the other tomorrow if the former flips town.
 

Disfunkshunal

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Dooms Dooms
Ryu lays out his read list in #1006 and Soup doesn't make the cut. His first lynch choice is Z25, same as you. Despite Z25 being his scummiest read, he pushes a Nabe lynch and lands on Soup. Do you have any thoughts about this play? Or is it still overall a null read from you?
 

Disfunkshunal

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For clarification, he does later elaborate on his Soup choice but Z25 is still put on the back burner with Nabe and Soup taking priority.
 

Z25

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Time for a Ruy way of rambling,

Nabe and Laundry would be my go to lynches.

Laundry is bugging me and my opinion on his interactions with Ryker might change depending on what he is.

To put it bluntly, I have to ask a real question.

Have Laundry or Ryker actively tried to be reading each other, or are they coasting on each other being town? If they trust each other, I get that but at this juncture I'm finding it harder to put trust in that area given how awfully incorrect they have been. Extremely consistently while leading semi town. Neither one seems to really be with the idea of thinking, is he scum or town and how confident do I feel about it. They seem confident the other is town.

I'm not in a forever catch up mood and I want to stop that and not really bother rereading the game, because I will fall behind and get lost these days with the shorter deadlines and my long hours of work.

What makes it dumb is that Soup made it very easy to lynch him, same with Pokechu. Shi was one I didn't agree since he played A-typical and why he went on Pokechu is pretty much why I would have as well. Not a fan of how he dipped but w/e. This is why I hated how Soup played how he did, he made himself extremely easy to dislike his slot and lynch it.

That's why I have a problem with how a lot of this went, but it makes sense for what Ryker was doing with Kantrip. The back and forth they had was likely not staged, if it was kudos I'll give the game to them if it was. I think the only people would would team up to do something super ballzy like all three in a pool would be if Ryker and Laundry wanted to like how Ryker used a mafia poison shot on his own scummate to get himself as a clear. I know he is willing to go for something like that if he rolled scum, but I only seeing Ryker doing this if he had full confidence he would not die for it. Ryker values his ability to stay in the game over anything else as either alignment. I'm not as much keen on this as being a team player. I'll take a bullet for the team to win but I'm not sure Ryker would take a risk like that in a vanilla game as town, as mafia he might but only with insurance. If Ryker is scum is rolled himself in there knowing he would not get lynched.

But this is assuming he is scum a lot of this is me playing into the idea Soup was onto something in the first place but in either situation what I have to come down to is this.

This is a theory and a lot of gut feelings rather than me really having anything concrete and an idea of where I would go and think about if you flipped town. And a lot of this is really going down my list and asking, if we have been this consistently wrong either we are infighting a lot or the people we think are town aren't town and if so, what do we do from there.

I need to sleep at this point I feel like my head is silly and I'm tired as everything.

I would look into those two if you flipped town but Nabe would still be my numero uno.

I'm not happy with his content and his latest post more or less confirms what I think and feel.
Ryker seems to think laundry could be mafia but iirc didn’t think this until tofay. Which could be affected by yesterday’s events.

Laundry has literally relied on Ryker to help him out in going after people. See yesterday when he tagged Ryker to help rip soup apart because he had no counter argument.

Which I don’t think is a town move. Using others to push your agenda sounds pretty scummy to me.
Ok now I sleep.

Z25 Z25 who needs to go in that pool?

Ryker and Joey same.

Disfunkshunal Disfunkshunal wanna break the game an Lynch Nabe anyways
In that pool I would lynch Joey first. He has contributed but he doesn’t really change up thoughts. He automatically has been going for the scummiest people and almost feels like an echo to the others in that bus for the day. He gives reasons sure but I’ve honestly never gained to much from. He’s been asking questions about me but has never seemed to want revalate that I could be town.

So I really don’t think we’ve gained much from his contributions. On top of that I think from a scum perspective he’s a person scum would think they could get away with most which would be why he’s here. Plus scum will have to put everyone in the pool if it continues or they could make others look shady at one point or another. Which could work in their favor but also backfire. That’s why I feel the first two pools definitely had scum. It’s easier to manipulate town that way later on.

Joey is also someone I’ve never really be able to say is town, which is partially gut feeling, but also just the fact I don’t think his content is great. So I’d take the risk there and go for him.

I’m town and like I said it be pretty stupid if scum put me there because on how much people think I’m scum.

Ryker I have better reads in and I think laundry is more scum. They could be a team but that be so ****ing crazy that i find it hard to believe.

You also seem pretty town to me, with constant content and some good posts here and there.
Z25 Z25 , give me your thoughts on Nabe's comments about why the voters bailed off of him last phase.
Sure I’ll do that in a bit
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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I'll be back later today to hopefully continue this when people are here.

In the meantime, #HBC | Red Ryu #HBC | Red Ryu Sell it to me. If Nabe is scum, what's the team look like?
Nabe‘s not leaving a paper trail, not a clear one at all. In this case I need to look out of his moves and rather how others interacted with him.

i think disfunk is town and I doubt his vote on Nabe was scum motivaged, especially me liking his content as I looked back on previous page.

outside of that, I got little to nothing. Because Nabe is not interacting in a way to leave connections if he flips.

reread his recent post, outside of Disfunk. It tells me nothing useful. i’ve poked him to provide more but he responded with a quote and not answering anything I wanted to see from him.

A lot of people from memory have kept him at arms reach or say he won’t give info. Which is a self defeating attitude, he won’t give info so we won’t lynch him. Despite it being more intentional.

i think Joey was against it for this reason, I don’t remember much else outside of Joey Soup and Disfunk.

i’d have clears for not aligned, but strict teams? I need to think what would makes. There are a lot of variables and the lack of Nabe getting a focus is a problem.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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If I had a gun to my head, laundry/Nabe/z25

but I am wondering if Z25 needs to be Joey. Since if I were to pick a pool i’d want someone who would die before me, which is why I am kind of leaning away from z25 right now but need to consider this given the interactions.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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If Z25 was scum, why throw himself in there outside of WIFOM? It could be relying on that, but I think this is a concern of mine given the set-up, it’s too easy of a pick.

If Z flipped town i’d have to say Joey has to be scum then.
 

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Nabe should have never should have been let off the hook this long.
I’m actually really starting to agree here after reading your input.

I didn’t consider it fully. I did say if I had nothing to go off of when talking to Joey yesterday I’d shoot nabe.

And your points are pretty good. Even if his flip won’t give us the other mafia, he would still likely flip scum I think based on my thoughts on his different play style and your input here today. And at this point lynching a scum is lynching one and avoids lylo. Unfortunately nabe or laundry can’t be choices today.

But after reading everything today.

My scum team thoughts are laundry, Joey, and nabe.

Nabe is taking the solo man play. Where he’s probably scum but making damn sure we can’t get info on his comrades.

Laundry is using Ryker to seem town.

Joey falls in between both their plays. Aligning his thoughts with others but not make him self to much of a subject but still putting the effort to do more then nabe if they all are scum. That’s speculation for the most part though.
 

#HBC | Ryker

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If Z25 was scum, why throw himself in there outside of WIFOM? It could be relying on that, but I think this is a concern of mine given the set-up, it’s too easy of a pick.

If Z flipped town i’d have to say Joey has to be scum then.
I mean, I dunno about this WIFOM, tbh.

Scum has to put someone there. The Laundry removal is for one of two things: it prevents a snap wagon to scumLaundry given his perception last phase OR it makes a townLaundry look bad for being removed as soon as he was a feasible way things could snap.

Kantrip removal is, by far, the most interesting thing to me. It is for this reason that I think there's one scum in the pool (outside of me). I think there's someone who will flip scum in there trying to gain points as a townie. The Kantrip removal looks to me like it was made to give them breathing room. Unless the scum team thinks Joey looked better than Kantrip yesterday? I don't really think that's the case.

I'm there. Hi. I think I'm going to be up for lynch literally every phase if they didn't go for as wide a pool of middling slots as possible.

Z25, Ruy, and Joey selection can be sliced so many ways. Z25 isn't scum because he wouldn't put himself there. Z25 is scum because he left two slots to jump before him.

Ruy can have the same analysis as Z25, p.much. Not adding Nabe means scumRuy, if he can get a Z25 or Joey lynch today, can shove a lynch down Nabe's throat in LyLo.

Joey could be scum who thinks he's less likely to go than Z25 and Ruy trying to get town credit or could just be town who was added so we could imply the former.

Nabe could be scum who refuses to add himself to the pool to prevent a lynch for his middling activity or he's the LyLo lynch scum is saving and trying to push tomorrow.

Disfunk is either scum who thinks he can get a town lynch today into a town lynch tomorrow (probably lynching townRuy today into a townNabe or a flip to Z25/Joey) or town who scumNabe is trying to promote for the final lynch tomorrow.

~~~~~~~~~~~

This is why I brought it up earlier. It's all WIFOM. Kantrip thing there is the most reasonable comment I can make, but I think our winning strategy is to completely and utterly ignore who is in the pool today outside of the fact we have to lynch one of them. I'm not trying to use it as a pillar of my reasoning. I'm going to solve for who I want today and who I want the next day in the case of both a town and a scum flip. We have our backs to the wall, but there isn't nearly as much room for scum to maneuver.
 

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#HBC | Ryker #HBC | Ryker thid is what you wanted my thoughts on right?


Although there was a brief wagon on me, I think that I was a pretty poor lynch yesterDay. I mean, I might be somewhat biased. But I don't think that my flip would have said a word about the slots voting for me (Ryu, Soup, DFk), except that they could all agree that lynching a skeleton player at deadline was better than the varied meat on offer.

More importantly, the wagon backed off and broke apart inorganically. Soup flopped back to Laundry from me, presumably thinking he could cover that ground. Then he voted Z25 for 'self-preservation'. Then Disfunk unvoted me, supposedly to prevent a tie between me and Soup, which meant I had a single vote from Ryu. So that allowed Ryu to say, "Oops, Nabe can't happen, deadline's on the way," and then vote for Soup. But we don't need majority, and I think that an ongoing Nabe wagon would have found its supporters, especially in Soup who had brought up self-preservation as reasoning. All Soup would have needed was the smallest prompt, IMO.

I think the scumteam chose Soup in that moment as a more effective use of the lynch over me. It seems like both Ryu and Disfunk have me baked in as the lynch in a LyLo situation toMorrow. Ryu started the wagon on me yesterDay, and got off when I think very gentle prodding would have gotten a lynch. I'm a bit more suspicious of Disfunk, because I don't think that Ryu is in great shape being in this pool of nominations. But I wonder if he thinks he is.
If so. This really is just fluff for me till the end. He recapped the entire situation of his wagon and seems to slyly try and set up for a ryu or Disfunkshunal lynch. Both of whom are in the pool. Which is interesting as he avoids you and me but that’s understandable. We didn’t say much towards him yesterday.

It sounds more like he wants to take advantage of the pool and who voted him to cause paranoia.

He’s throwing supiscion on both of those two without any real reason they then they tried to lynch him.

I don’t get how he thinks he wasn’t a great lynch due to his inactivity and if he’s so bent on being town he could have done a lot of more to make us think this.

So basically I don’t really like this post. It offers no info on him, feels like he’s hardly trying and/or trying to setup for scum buddies to push a lynch towards one of these two tomorrow.

So I really don’t see any town use for this post. It’s just not a good evaluation o himself and the wagon imo.

The changes to soup were because they both were kind of viewed scummy and debate was going on through the day. So it’s not like they just changed completely. I don’t think nabe really put too much effort here.

It feels like he just wants to push a lynch today/ or tomorrow without sticking to his guns. He continues to try and remain as little active as possible and I don’t like that play.
 

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Incoming very exciting vote count post:

Current vote count (as of post #1436):
  • Ryker: 0
  • KY Joey: 0
  • Red Ryu: 0
  • Z25: 0

Not currently voting: Ryker, KY Joey, Disfunkshunal, Red Ryu, Laundry, Z25, Kantrip, Nabe (i.e. everyone)

24 hours remain in this phase.
Majority lynch begins now! With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Remember that only the four players listed above may be voted for in this phase! Votes for other players will not count.

 
Last edited:

#HBC | Nabe

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Can't breathe, but the view is equal to the taste
Half of this doesn't matter since Soup flipped town, we know why he did it and I wish he did stick to you if anything else.
What Soup did matters, because Soup said that his vote for Z25 was explicitly self-preservation. You had no reason to drop me as a lynch whatsoever, all I needed to be lynched was gentle prodding and a line to Soup: "Instead of Z25, go back to Nabe."

But what about Disfunk? Do you find what he did to be that bad.
Disfunk voted me by telling Soup, "be the change that you want to see," when Soup said he wanted a Nabe lynch. That's an effective method of carrying over a ready-made lynch to the next Day (following the nomination phase). Funk says to Soup, "yeah, let's go for inactive Nabe, good idea!" and then continues to lynch Soup when I flip town. At least your vote on me made sense in a certain context, because you've been consistent about hating my slot.

But the opposite tactic happens to be even better in this game, and that's why the wagon returned to Soup after its stint on me. Eliminating Soup is eliminating a speaking player who could have made himself whole by the time the next lynch rolled around, whereas I'm an easy LyLo lynch.

Granted, I am reading intent into the Nabe unvotes, it's not necessarily the story. Probably only one of you and Disfunk is scum, rather than both. Disfunk's unvote reasoning was 'to avoid a tie', and then they said, "Why Soup, Ryu? That could have made a tie!" which suggests that somehow a tie between me and Soup was necessary to avoid at all costs.


Sure we do not need a majority, but if they both jump ship a 1 vote wonder ain't gonna do it. Do you think people would have done it? I pushed it and it got steam since I've been increasing unhappy with how close to the chest you have been. Normal for you, but when you do give content it's not really helpful or give me much to go on.
I think that a lynch on your (somehow) largest scumread was very attainable, but instead you swapped to Soup without a fuss. Your meta's old, but that's not relevant anyway.


This doesn't say anything for the current pool, so if so. Would you like to enlighten me on what you think is the best direction and how he feel about the others in the current pool of 4?

Because the above I quoted tells me nothing outside of myself which is really a lot of fluff about me.
You > Ryker > Z25 > Joey
 

Z25

Pokemon Illusionist
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Zoroarkrules571
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Incoming very exciting vote count post:

Current vote count (as of post #1436):
  • Ryker: 0
  • KY Joey: 0
  • Red Ryu: 0
  • Z25: 0

Not currently voting: Ryker, KY Joey, Disfunkshunal, Red Ryu, Laundry, Z25, Kantrip, Nabe (i.e. everyone)

24 hours remain in this phase.
Majority lynch begins now! With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.
I think we can all agree this is the most exciting flavor post of the game.

:p
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
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I don't even think I've posted in double digits yet. Aren't you just assigning intent to my inactivity?
i’m strongly thinking it is the case when your content isn’t really giving me anything to work with.

This is why I was moving away from Soup, even if it made me look bad in the long run to mamy people.

Soup and Z25 I could work with and figure out, with you your posts don’t give me anything with a paper trail nor reads.

i don’t have anything for interactions with Ryker or Laundry and your recent activity not a lot of people that are active. I asked it before but you dodged my post again.

What is your stance on the pool and where do you want to go? I want to know this.
 
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