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Elma for Smash Ultimate: Strength comes from experience. That’s true on any planet.

Calamitas

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My thoughts on what to expect now: Another Smash Direct seems honestly pretty likely, since there's still a good bunch of stuff that's unexplained about Ultimate. Putting that in a general Direct most likely wouldn't really work, and it's also of course not a given that we're even going to have another general Direct before the game's launch, though that's not entirely impossible. For a hypothetical next Smash Direct, chances are that they're going to announce two more newcomers again, and since Simon and K.Rool are roughly from the same era, that might also be the case then.
. . .Alright, what I wanna get at is, second Smash Direct in either October or November (October preferably), with Elma and Isaac(/Felix) reveal.
 

Homelessvagrant

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I'd say we can expect a final smash direct in November with possibly a random smash character reveal in October (in the same way we got Robin and Lucina). It all depends on how many characters are left, I think we'll probably get Geno and Xenoblade Rep as two of the reveals (if not the only remaining two reveals). If we get a third, I'd put my bets on some kind of Pokemon or Zelda character. Unfortunately, I don't see Isaac making the cut though I wouldn't mind being wrong about him.
 

Izayoi

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November 6th or 7th might be a direct day, due to the bundle for Smash Ultimate going up for pre-orders then. But it sounds like a more general direct is due for November since Pokemon Let's Go is that month.

A Smash Direct during October sounds really likely in my eyes. And it'll probably settle most of the features that they have left to be covered.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Think they’ll have a 50 Facts type thing in December like they did with 4, right before the game releases, with some reveals too?
 

Luviant X

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Think they’ll have a 50 Facts type thing in December like they did with 4, right before the game releases, with some reveals too?
Hmm, I wonder if Sakurai will wait that long this time.

He said he wanted to reveal the full roster before the release date, but the later he waits, the more likely the roster will be leaked, ala the ESRB leak that happened for Smash 4, which is why I'm leaning on a Smash Direct happening earlier, either late October or early November. *Shrugs* we'll see.
 

Izayoi

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My current expectation is that October is the biggest info drop we'll get, while they save one or two more reveals for November's direct. That way, November won't have a chance of giving massive amounts of leaks. Printing of the game probably happens during that time, with December 7th being the release date and all.
 

DNeon

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Personally I see an October-November Smash specific Direct with as many reveals as the last one which would be pretty much as many newcomers as could be expected, and then a final reveal (Character and any echoes they have) closer to the release, either in direct or for the release.
 

Nonno Umby

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My personal prediction is
-During October we have a reveal like Robin and Lucina, just a trailer drop after being announced.
-Early to mid November we have a regular Direct dedicated to giving us dates and new info about the Spring 2019 titles like Yoshi and Fire Emblem, plus a newcomer.
-A week after we have the Final Smash Direct, where they reveal all the remaining characters and echoes.


So what do you guys think of Isabelle's reveal?
I like the character, and the fact she isn't an echo of the Villager is great for me since he is the only character I couldn't be any good at using.

But her reveal trailer? Way too long and boring. We had something like 90 seconds of monologue and opening a letter (with in game assets from the new AC rather than a stunning CGI) when the actual gameplay was just 25 second. I don't even think we reach a full minute of gameplay for her in her two trailers, which is ridiculous when compared to the other newcomers.
I get that they tried to do a baton switch and made us guessing if that was a new AC...but people immediately understood it was Smash, especiallg after Pete gives her that letter...and they still go for 10 seconds for crying out loud. Also Rosalina trailer really pulled off that same idea of "is this Mario Kart 8 or Smash?!"
Also not seeing any Nintendo character die was disappointing.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Welp

*Puts on tinfoil hat*
I might be delusional, but I think I'm on to something with this. This confirms an echo fighter for either :ultpalutena::ultpacman::ultrobin:ultshulk::ultbowserjr::ultduckhunt::ultryu: or :ultcloud:, and an additional newcomer. Now hear me out.

It seems that groups of fighters are organized by chunks of nine. It's explained further in the spoiler:

:ultmario::ultdk::ultlink::ultsamus::ultdarksamus::ultyoshi::ultkirby::ultfox::ultpikachu: are mysteriously skipped. They would most likely all be on the left side of the box.
:ultluigi::ultness::ultfalcon::ultjigglypuff::ultpeach::ultdaisy::ultbowser::ulticeclimbers::ultsheik: are on the right side. Then, it randomly skips a chunk of characters.
:ultzelda::ultdoc::ultpichu::ultfalco::ultmarth::ultlucina::ultyounglink::ultganondorf::ultmewtwo: are the ones that are missing in that chunk, so they would be on the left side. Then,
:ultroy::ultchrom::ultgnw::ultmetaknight::ultpit::ultdarkpit::ultzss::ultwario::ultsnake: are on the right side.
:ultike::ultpokemontrainer::ultdiddy::ultlucas::ultsonic::ultkingdedede::ultolimar::ultlucario::ultrob: are skipped, meaning they are probably on the left side.
:ulttoonlink::ultwolf::ultvillager::ultmegaman::ultwiifittrainer::ultrosalina::ultlittlemac::ultgreninja::ultmiifighters: are on the right side. Now, the interesting part.
:ultpalutena::ultpacman::ultrobin:ultshulk::ultbowserjr::ultduckhunt::ultryu::ultcloud: are skipped. But that's only 8 fighters, thus breaking the pattern. There may be an echo fighter in this chunk.
:ultcorrin::ultbayonetta::ultinkling::ultridley::ultsimon::ultrichter::ultkrool: appear on the right side, leaving room for Isabelle and an additional newcomer.

I think this means Ken is all but confirmed now. But the only problem with this is the fact that I highly doubt that there are only two newcomers left. Of course, we'll just have to wait and see.

*Removes tinfoil hat*
it's likely we will not get Elma on the base roster...I'm feeling really defeated right now :(
 

Dionaea_floridensis

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Guys I need some help. I just downloaded Torna on my Switch but when I try to launch it it gives me the error message: "You cannot play this software yet. Would you like to view more detailed information on the Nintendo eShop?"
I've never gotten this message before on any game I've downloaded. Do y'all have any clue wtf is wrong with it?
 

Condenir

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Hi guys...I’m very VERY new(kind of?) I’ve been following this thread for a few months now and I can say with full confidence Elma is my 110% most wanted new comer. I’m really new to being a member of this site...so bear with me while I learn the rules and common courtesies here...:)

Also, can I be added as a supporter of Elma?

So...personally, I’ve been following all the speculation. And yesterday was really TRULY sad for me(Even tho I like Isabelle). I was getting kind of convinced she was in. But I haven’t lost hope yet thanks to you guys.
But all of that aside..let’s make this thread grow a ton! Let’s get it HUGE and draw attention to Elma. Who says she can’t be DLC? If Sakurai said he doesn’t work on DLC before the game is done, who says elmas popularity can’t skyrocket. I’m all for doing everything we can to get her in...and I know you guys are too:)

Sorry if this is SO long...and maybe dramatic? Lol whatevaaaaa. But hopefully you all agree and let’s get our girl, who truly deserves it, in smash!
 

Izayoi

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More Elma supporters means more Elma hype which, if she happens, we're gonna be one big party of people! \o/
 

ColtonS25

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Welp



it's likely we will not get Elma on the base roster...I'm feeling really defeated right now :(
I feel like this may be looking a little too far into things. I can't see us just getting only one more fighter, especially with Vergeben leaks. According to that, we should have at least 2 more newcomers (I may be misremembering here, but shouldn't it be a Gen 7 Pokémon and a Square Rep? Vergeben has been accurate so far, and he even said that he didn't know the full roster. There's still hope!).

Plus, it would be odd to me if Sakurai really did just reveal 5 characters in the Smash direct. It seems like he would want to space out reveals more because there aren't as many newcomers this time. All I'm saying is that we shouldn't lose hope. Until Sakurai says that we've seen everyone, I'll support our best girl.
 
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Luviant X

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I feel like this may be looking a little too far into things. I can't see us just getting only one more fighter, especially with Vergeben leaks. According to that, we should have at least 2 more newcomers (I may be misremembering here, but shouldn't it be a Gen 7 Pokémon and a Square Rep? Vergeben has been accurate so far, and he even said that he didn't know the full roster. There's still hope!).

Plus, it would be odd to me if Sakurai really did just reveal 5 characters in the Smash direct. It seems like he would want to space out reveals more because there aren't as many newcomers this time. All I'm saying is that we shouldn't lose hope. Until Sakurai says that we've seen everyone, I'll support our best girl.
Yeah, this box art theory doesn't line up with what Verg has said.

The box art theory suggests there are only two characters left. Verg said there's atleast three: 1. Gen 7 Pokemon. 2. Square Rep. 3. Ken.

And as you alluded to, logic tells us Sakurai would have more than just two characters saved up for the final direct.
 

IronWarrior94

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Y'know, I told myself that if Elma's not in, I would atleast accept having a good amount of music tracks from X in the game. At least I could jam to a match with Uncontrollable playing the background, or the Keys we've Lost or Codename Z.

But tbh, with Rex/Pyra already being seen as inevitable if DLC happens, it would be really unfair to leave Elma out, and by extension any solid rep from XCX. You'd have the original Xenoblade and XC2 here, but why not XCX? Given the Xenoblade franchise's growing popularity AND the fact that Monolith have expressed interest in further exploring the universe of X, I think the franchise deserves to have all 3 games represented in Smash.
 

Dixie Kong

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I think if there is one more unique newcomer, it’s very likely it would be Elma. We still haven’t seen the character based off Sakurai’s toy gun, and considering Shulk was the final character announced for the last game, Elma could be also for this one.
 

KiyoXDragon

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Y'know, I told myself that if Elma's not in, I would atleast accept having a good amount of music tracks from X in the game. At least I could jam to a match with Uncontrollable playing the background, or the Keys we've Lost or Codename Z.

But tbh, with Rex/Pyra already being seen as inevitable if DLC happens, it would be really unfair to leave Elma out, and by extension any solid rep from XCX. You'd have the original Xenoblade and XC2 here, but why not XCX? Given the Xenoblade franchise's growing popularity AND the fact that Monolith have expressed interest in further exploring the universe of X, I think the franchise deserves to have all 3 games represented in Smash.
I love the music from X.
 

Nonno Umby

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Welp



it's likely we will not get Elma on the base roster...I'm feeling really defeated right now :(
I think that people are becaming a little too stressed after Isabelle reveal.
Just doing the math here, those are 6 rows with 6 characters each. If we assume there are the same amount on the other side then we have a total of 12 rows with 6 characters each. If we do 6×12 we get 72. If we include the echoes we have 68+6 characters = 74 characters. Now we see that the Mii Fighter are all in the same spot, so we reach a perfect 72. The Pokèmon Trainer might be separated or not (unlike the Miis it is harder to put all four in such a small and vertical box), that's really up in the air, but let's assume it is not separated, which would mean we already have 70 characters to fill 72 slots.
But just two more doesn't coincide with what Vergeben is leaking, since he is talking of 3 additional characters: Ken, Gen VII Pokémon and a Square Rep.

All of this considered probably means that there is another row in the back of that box.

Also considering the extra precautions Sakurai is taking in order to avoid leak, would he really let Nintendo post such a spoilery package if that was the truth?
Besides these packages aren't updated when they are revealed. Look at the European Limited Edition:
3423946-smash+bros+ultimate+limited+edition.jpeg

This was revealed after the Smash Direct. Notices how we are missing Isabelle here just like how we miss her in the American package. What does this say to us?
These packages were probably made during the same period of time, so when having to arrange 69 characters (since there is no way that the graphic artist for that box knows the entire roster now, it's a huge risk for leaks, even just giving out the number) to split between 2 sides, he had to put blank spots. Once we get more characters they will be better arranged, assuming there aren't behind the box too.
 
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The_Intruder

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Welp



it's likely we will not get Elma on the base roster...I'm feeling really defeated right now :(
When you reveal 5 characters in you smash direct with Simon or K rool and the smash community think there will be just 2 characters left: there is a real problem.
You want to kill the hype of your game? Go ahead and reveal less characters finishing your advertising with something less than before instead of making a grand finale. I think people become really anxious since the last direct because of isabelle not being an echo(and basing their expectation only on the ballot or some leaks), era, smashboard, gamexplain, sourcegaming all become crazy about a placer holder showing two missing spot. After sakurai has done everything for being secret for this game place holder will reveal how many characters are left? Weird.
I thinks people are sitting too much on this and need to buck up, I've the feeling there will be more echo/ New comer than what this place holder would tell us.
Not saying Elma as a chance or anything but this place holder theory is honestly lol.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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So if Elma indeed does not make it to base roster, BUT if DLC will have a much longer run since the Switch isn’t a sinking ship like the Wii U was...

Do you think somehow, both Elma AND Rex & Pyra will be DLC? It’s the most likely outcome at this point
 

Danpal65

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So if Elma indeed does not make it to base roster, BUT if DLC will have a much longer run since the Switch isn’t a sinking ship like the Wii U was...

Do you think somehow, both Elma AND Rex & Pyra will be DLC? It’s the most likely outcome at this point
I'd love to see Elma and Rex & Pyra, but I feel her chances would be hurt if she isn't base roster. Not saying she wouldn't be DLC along with R&P, but I think it would be less likely.
 

lizard1929

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So if Elma indeed does not make it to base roster, BUT if DLC will have a much longer run since the Switch isn’t a sinking ship like the Wii U was...

Do you think somehow, both Elma AND Rex & Pyra will be DLC? It’s the most likely outcome at this point
Elma would NEED a port or X2 to hype along side for a DLC chance. She is to obscure of character to make people want to buy her.
Rex/Pyra are safe for DLC as they are new characters who had no chance in base.

Remember whoever is DLC has to be sold on there own merits as they need to be paid for separately from the main game
 

The_Intruder

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Sorry I want to go back on this "box"
if we count the numer of characters on this box there place for 72 characters right (echo included)?
36 on the left and supposedly 36 on the right so 72.
But where the "X new comers left" comes from because there is already 72 characters on the official website?

For a reminder


The number of the edition was the just the number of fighters before isabelle got in and was announced after the smash direct.
So when I analyze all of this this is just the number of fighter at this day.
When products are shown after a direct they will be always based on the website with the current roster.
 
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MoonlitIllusion

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So if Elma indeed does not make it to base roster, BUT if DLC will have a much longer run since the Switch isn’t a sinking ship like the Wii U was...

Do you think somehow, both Elma AND Rex & Pyra will be DLC? It’s the most likely outcome at this point
Depends on if and when Xenoblade X2 comes out tbh. But it's definitely possible. Tbh I could see rex and pyra missing out as well while prioritising newer characters like fire emblem, sylux, etc
 

Calamitas

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Depends on if and when Xenoblade X2 comes out tbh. But it's definitely possible. Tbh I could see rex and pyra missing out as well while prioritising newer characters like fire emblem, sylux, etc
I personally would actually hope that Rex and Pyra get skipped over in favour of Lora, Jin and Haze. At least with those three, it actually makes sense that they'd be switching out with each other in the middle of the battle, and their moveset(s) could generally be much more interesting.
 

AustarusIV

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I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Elma ends up being part of some “Xenoblade DLC Bundle Pack” along with Rex and other XC content for SSBU DLC.
 

Nonno Umby

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A member who had experience inside the placeholder and renders business shared his opinion on th whole box theory:
My very fist job in my life was actually making those mock-ups for several products. If you're interested, I can explain a bit on how (usually) works.

When you need a visual design for a product, be it a toy, a balm bottle, a keychain of whatever you first tell the graphic designer to do the first draft (my job). This is also the case for many boxes, especially for special editions. After the work is done, your supervisor check it and give the feedback: maybe is too dark for the target audience, maybe the colors are off, maybe you idea sucks, and so on.
Now keep in mind that at this moment the image is still a photoshopped image, not a 3D render (most of the time; I'm talking about my personal experience), and in rare cases those photoshopped images end to be the actual "official" one. Like this one (look at the toilet paper), as opposed to this one. See the difference?
Once the supervisor gives the ok, the process proceed. Remember this part for later.
Then, in the case of a product box, it goes straight to a specific department that make the actual box. I said specific because they are responsible for basically everything regarding the actual box: the colors (if you're familiar with RGB vs CMYK you know what I mean), font dimension (very important if the wording need to be translated), all the box sides, and all those fine prints you see on every box. In this stage the intern can actually make some changes, especially true if you consider that most companies always have some kind of "template" regarding their products. Just grab any box near you and you'll see with your own eyes: the prints, the warnings, the logos, the alignment. There are actual people who specifically work on those, in order to have a good looking AND functional product.
After all that, it usually got double-checked and finally released to the public (and to the physical manufactor). Remember, this process takes place AFTER the actual product is done (or at least should be).

Before proceeding, keep in mind that I worked in a small company and not in a huge multinational, and basically never in a NDA environment. So from now take everything with a grain of salt.

Now, from my personal experience, on this "box theory" I can tell you this. The Smash Bros Special Edition Box is real, like an actual physical box that has been sent to Amazon, along with a specific serial number (and tons of paperwork) in order to be and actual buyable product. Remember that the ESBR already have the final version of the game with all the characters in it, its basically already finished.
But that box is a placeholder. "Hurr-dur, of course its a placeholder, Isabelle is not on it!". And that's the point.
Remember the supervisor stage? In this particular case, the team already know the full rooster but they get specifically instructed about what characters are going to be revealed to the public, so its up to the supervisor to tell "put all the characters up to the 67°, we are going to send this before the planned 5th september direct" or something like that to the poor intern, so he (and later the box department) have to create a desing with those instructions in place.
If you consider that the Steelbox was already announced back in august (look at the date), I think its pretty safe to assume that whoever created that box was specifically instructed on how many characters he was supposed to show. So the empty slots are there for a reason, they are not random.

Its interesting to note the discrepancy in the Palutena-Corrin segment, from my point of view it could really be a slip up of an echo fighter there (Ken/Medusa/Ms. Pacman/Zack...), I mean, it wouldn't be the first time Nintendo screw up like this. But regarding the supposed single remaining slot, I'm pretty confident its a placeholder. As in, the entire grid might change, shrunk, moved, some characters may be on the back and so on.
That said, don't expect 5-6 more unique anyways, Sakurai specifically told us the opposite. There are probably 2 more left, 3 if you want to be optimistic.

Hope it helped.

TL;DR: 90% placeholder, 10% true.
Rise up, fellow BLADES, we aren't out of the run just yet!
 

Homelessvagrant

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Yeah as a graphic designer myself, I can support these claims. Its very common for graphic designers to print out work to showcase it in a "natural" light. The elements on the design are on a grid that once established can be easily changed. It also isn't too surprising to see a mock up advertised, because its common to have a product, once run through internal testing, shown to the public to test its visual design. I also know that half the time when working on a design, you don't always have all the information when starting the design. Most often then not it is up to the designer to seek out the information through research

We also have to consider that if this designer crafted the box knowing the roster, he/she would have to have been informed by Sakurai's team. Considering how closed lip they are on the product thus far, I don't see them revealing the information to the people designing the box because frankly they don't need that information and I doubt Sakurai's team hasn't considered the potential of the information being leaked this way.
 
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majora_787

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That's actually pretty interesting. I always figured it would be kind of weird to essentially declare 103 the permanent number, or to say that no newcomers from here on will have accompanying stages. I never thought it was unreasonable, but it sounded strange.
 

MrRoidley

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So if Elma indeed does not make it to base roster, BUT if DLC will have a much longer run since the Switch isn’t a sinking ship like the Wii U was...

Do you think somehow, both Elma AND Rex & Pyra will be DLC? It’s the most likely outcome at this point
I think that's a pretty real possibilty actually! While Rex is definitely the most popular out there, Elma's popularity isn't to be ignored, she ranks at least among the top 20 in many polls I saw. I could totally see a Xenoblade DLC pack or something

But I don't think Elma's chances are done. Not only bc of the 108 stages, but also because Elma was highly relevant by December 2015. I feel we're getting more "relevant in 2015" characters (like Isabelle or Inkling) than ppl are giving credit for
 

Nonno Umby

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As I thought, it's looking like all the stages haven't been revealed yet. CoroCoro reveals there'll be 108

http://dotup.org/uploda/dotup.org1643534.jpg
Oh this is great news! It might be an error by the reporter, but 108 makes perfect sense because we have 6 slots after the 103, so the last one would be for DLC, just like in Smash For.
Between this and the box theory losing credibility we are looking better and better!
 
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Gameguy1996

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While the thing with the bundle is that the release date is on November 2nd and I don't think the final Smash Direct will air until after the bundle comes out. So of course they would have to avoid putting some characters on the box. I'm thinking there could be 3 uniques and 3 echoes left for 80 characters in all. While I would love for Elma to be a newcomer I'm unsure about who the last unique newcomer is if the other 2 are Incineroar and Geno. On the bright I stated Toma the Golden Country today and it's pretty good. The driver and blade switching mechanic speeds up the combat, I'm liking Lora more then Rex and so fair the field enemies have been balanced.
 

Nonno Umby

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While the thing with the bundle is that the release date is on November 2nd and I don't think the final Smash Direct will air until after the bundle comes out. So of course they would have to avoid putting some characters on the box. I'm thinking there could be 3 uniques and 3 echoes left for 80 characters in all. While I would love for Elma to be a newcomer I'm unsure about who the last unique newcomer is if the other 2 are Incineroar and Geno. On the bright I stated Toma the Golden Country today and it's pretty good. The driver and blade switching mechanic speeds up the combat, I'm liking Lora more then Rex and so fair the field enemies have been balanced.
The Special Edition (the one who generated all this discussion) comes out December 7th. November 2nd they will release the Smash Ultimate Switch Bundle, with a download code for the game. The thing is that even if the code is avaiable on that date, Nintendo can simply make them redeemable after a certain date, because these codes don't work if the game data isn't already on the E-shop. So they could wait even just a week before release.
We shouldn't look to much into that in order to get info about the announcments since that bundle is being released early only in America for a clear reason: Black Friday.

Elma makes perfect sense among those two. The fact that we have more stages, and that it's extremely unlikely that one is NOT based on X (even without a character most people agree that an X stage should be there), and that it was kept secret until now...
 
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