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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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WahHahaha

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This is a rant nobody asked for, but I really hate it when people say "X character is not cool" or "X character has no source material" Do people not realize how many characters and franchise people have absolutely fallen in love for because of Smash? Like I'm sure if Sakurai approached someone and told them that he was adding Captain Falcon they would have said "Who is that? That's not a cool character" yet all of these years people love Captain Falcon. Sakurai even somehow made people tolerate characters like Byleth. He turned the whole entire Fire Emblem franchise into a franchise that is sucessful and liked by a lot of people.

"Source material" is an argument I hate even more because Captain Falcon was literally a racecar driver with no actual moves in his game, yet he still has a cool moveset. Wii Fit Trainer is a character that stares at you and gives you exercise instructions while telling you how overweight you are, but they have a full moveset in Smash. It's as if people think Sakurai is some uncreative hack who can't make a moveset without copy and pasting from their games despite the fact that he literally pioneered an entire new genre of fighting games and created Kirby which is a very unique platforming game. He looks at games for inspiration a lot, but it's not like he's unable to make a moveset without any.
 
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perfectchaos83

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Let's do something better… Let's just understand for a moment here why it's 99% not gonna end being a huge character, with the reason being completely a business one, one that Nintendo has already proven to us with the 1st Pass and has maintained to this point. Here it is:

If Nintendo has anything big to sell during DLC and there is a Pass format happening for said amount of DLCs, that format is where they gain the most profit with. Nintendo wants to profit the most possible, and to do that you need to get people interested in buying said format before they stop seeing any reason to do so, a.k.a. when they just realize they don't care about 70/80/90% of the amount of characters in the pass, and they just proceed to buy characters individually instead ( or any character at all ). Yes, it's Smash, yes, Nintendo are rich… yet that doesn't change the fact they still pursue the most profit possible from the stuff they do. They don't just bank on the popularity and success of a game and abandon getting the most profit possible from it. They don't do that, certainly not with Smash.

So…
The way they profit the most from BIG characters in the pass, is by having them during the time when people have not given up on the idea of buying said pass and proceeding to just buy whichever character individually when it's revealed.

Taking THAT in mind, and please DO keep it in mind for the rest of this message… let's see how the 1st Pass had its pass sellers located… Ah yes, none of them closed the pass… Instead, they have these pass sellers no later than midway of the amount of reveals. To what end? to profit the best way possible, which is via selling the Pass format. None of the pass sellers, Hero, Joker or Banjo, closed that 1st Pass, and it's because of THAT reason. Instead, they left Byleth, a 1st party character, to be the closer of the pass. A character that wouldn't have made the pass format sell any more than the other actual big characters (3rd party ones). Having had Joker, Hero, Banjo, or even Terry as the closer of the 1st pass, would not have generated pass format sales AT ALL at that point. People would've only bought whichever of those characters individually at that point, which means less profit in the end for Nintendo, and they do not want that, as business logic dictates, a logic they clearly followed instead of ignoring it for whatever dumb fan reason anyone here could think of. They stayed with the business logic for the sake of profiting the most, let's just accept this as the reality of how and why they located the pass sellers where they did.

SO…
Now we have the 2nd Pass (and believe me, it doesn't matter jack **** at all if this is the last pass or not, it makes no difference to Nintendo in terms of business and achieving the same goal of making the most profit out of it possible, which they won't abandon, regardless of being the last one or not ).

So… We got Steve and Sephiroth no later than midway of the pass' timeline of releases. Like I said before, the period of time where people still consider buying the pass format. Once again, this proves their strategy of profiting the most possible is maintained.

Here is where things get interesting in the 2nd Pass tho… They give us Min Min and Pyra early on as well, instead of having them towards the end… These are 1st party characters, that don't specifically generate the most pass sales at all (at least min min certainly doesn't), instead of leaving one those to be the closer, and have another BIG character in their placement instead to keep making those Pass format sales making Nintendo some good money.

If you understood this far the way Nintendo has been handling this DLC stuff as a business, then you will probably start to realize that Pyra and Min Min happening when and where they did, is SO freaking crucial to realizing what type of character we are actually gonna get as the closer.

WHY have those non pass sales generator fighters early on instead of letting all of the big guns do their job when they ACTUALLY can be effective? And please do not give me the BS that Steve and Sephiroth were "enough" to do that. It doesn't limit to a certain amount of characters, again, Pass 1 already demonstrated that. If you are gonna have Sora, Crash, Chief, or something that huge in this pass, and you are gonna put any of them as the closer where they no longer make 30$ pass format sales from players, then you are literally wasting money with their inclusions at this point. The ONLY smart way to utilize these characters is by having them when they CAN generate those pass sales the most, not where they won't do it AT ALL anymore.

Now that my explanation is done there, I just want to say that I DO love the idea of stuff like Sora or Chief in Smash for example, hell I've been part of those threads myself because at some point I wanted said characters myself. But when time is not business realistic for them to happen anymore, I would "suggest" to set aside big hopes for said characters. If you read my explanation above, you understand why now. I don't you to give up on those characters entirely, but realize at least that they missed their window for making Nintendo the money they deserve to make by being included in this game, because this is a business in the end, whether some of us like to admit it or not. To expect them to happen NOW is the extreme opposite of logical from a business angle.

I will GLADLY take the L if I'm wrong and we do end with a HUGE character to close this DLC / game for good, because that would mean we got something epic in the end instead of something lame like a pokemon or whatever… BUT even then, I won't stop thinking that it was a huge loss of money to have someone huge this late in the pass where they don't make NEARLY as much money via the pass format anymore, because people who didn't buy the pass already will only buy this character individually.

I'm probably one of the biggest hype police haters out there, but I have to take the hypocrite stance for once in this last moment and suggest to take the business angle/perspective of this whole thing for a second, and ask yourselves how really likely is it to have someone BIG end the pass when it doesn't make Nintendo the amount of money that it would have earlier on in the 2nd Pass.

This is probably gonna be one of my last posts (if not the last one) on this website because, the end is near already and there really isn't much to talk about (there hasn't been for months honestly. I just want to say that it was a pleasure to ride the Ultimate hype train with those who kept an open mind for certain characters. Just remember not everyone can nor will be pleased in the end. Peace.
My issue with the whole "big" and "small" argument is that almost every character can be considered big in some way. If the last character was Reimu, it's still big news, even if most of the die hard Smash speculators would throw in the "literal who" argument like they did with Terry (Who became a gaming God to the Smash community after his inclusion). I mean ****, Even something like Bubsy would be "big" despite the series' infamy.

Something else to keep in mind is budget. Almost universally, "bigger" characters are going to cost more money. For example, Hero and Sephiroth, individually, probably ate up a huge chunk of each Fighter Pass' budget by themselves despite bringing in almost the bare minimum in terms of content. In my opinion, we're not likely to see a character that eats up a huge amount of potential licensing costs this late in the pass. Simply put, I just can't see FP2's budget overshadowing FP1's (I think Sakurai even alluded to that? Something that as a project continues the team and budget shrinks?).
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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Kirby and the Forgotten Land is coming up.

A first party character would be a more lowkey way to end the pass rather than a big blowout 3rd party, supporting the idea that most of the really big blow-your-mind stuff happens in the first half.

Bandana Dee is a first party from a series that hasn't seen a newcomer in 13 years and is also a pretty popular request at the same time.

Is... Is this how Bandana Dee wins?
 

Noipoi

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Kirby and the Forgotten Land is coming up.

A first party character would be a more lowkey way to end the pass rather than a big blowout 3rd party, supporting the idea that most of the really big blow-your-mind stuff happens in the first half.

Bandana Dee is a first party from a series that hasn't seen a newcomer in 13 years and is also a pretty popular request at the same time.

Is... Is this how Bandana Dee wins?
Master Chief Overrated
Crash never made it
Doomguy R rated
Sora’s mouscapaded
Bandanna Dee activated
 

NessAtc.

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Kirby and the Forgotten Land is coming up.

A first party character would be a more lowkey way to end the pass rather than a big blowout 3rd party, supporting the idea that most of the really big blow-your-mind stuff happens in the first half.

Bandana Dee is a first party from a series that hasn't seen a newcomer in 13 years and is also a pretty popular request at the same time.

Is... Is this how Bandana Dee wins?
There's zero reason Bandanna Dee shouldn't have been in the direct. The presentation announcement was literally right before the Kirby reveal.
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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There's zero reason Bandanna Dee shouldn't have been in the direct. The presentation announcement was literally right before the Kirby reveal.
I mean realistically, this logic (minus Kirby being immediately after of course) applies to every character since Sakurai Presents is pre-recorded, so it's probably already been done for a while, but they just decided to stick the last Presentation like 2 weeks after the direct anyway for whatever reason.

Basically, I don't really think it's worth looking into that much and my comments about Dee were mostly joking, anyway. Mostly. Because dang it, I want another Kirby character.
 
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DarthEnderX

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No offence but like, can people stop perpetuating everything PapaGenos says, lol? The reason we don't get non-video game characters has nothing to do with pandoras boxes or what have you, it is solely licensing. This entire pandoras box idea basically only makes sense from a speculation standpoint, as only the fans would be the ones affected by the overflow of requests for characters they don't want in smash, and as we know Nintendo don't look at anything from the speculation standpoint, all they look at it from is to get the most profit. Sakurai has pretty much said the same too, they are just too complicated to license, not because of anything against non-video game characters themselves or what they represent..
That makes NO sense. Games that are much smaller/lower budget than Smash have 4th party crossovers.

So if they can do it, then Smash can do it. So if Smash hasn't done it, it's because they don't WANT to do it.
 
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Jondolio

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I actually think the new Kirby game seems to be pushing Bandee aside
There's still no sign of Dedede and Meta Knight and the setting is very different than the standard Kirby locals so all three could potentially be no shows. And with HAL's talk about this being the beginning of the "next phase" of the Kirby series, I think a new recurring character could potentially be introduced. Just my two cents
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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I also really want Bandana Dee's Final Smash to be a cinematic Megaton Punch where if he connects with someone, possibly with a Suplex-esque dash grab, it shows him punching them and then shows Pop Star cracking in half, since Megaton Punch is his origin, as the first opponent or the one Player 2 controls in multiplayer.
 

Jondolio

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Also I'm still thinking we're getting a promotional first party (I refuse to use the term "shill pick" unironically). I don't think the final Sakurai Presents changes anything, especially since Byleth was revealed the same way.
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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I actually think the new Kirby game seems to be pushing Bandee aside
There's still no sign of Dedede and Meta Knight and the setting is very different than the standard Kirby locals so all three could potentially be no shows. And with HAL's talk about this being the beginning of the "next phase" of the Kirby series, I think a new recurring character could potentially be introduced. Just my two cents
I think it's really early to say since all we have is a 2 and a half minute trailer from like 2 days ago, but considering the main goals are freeing captured Waddle Dees, I would imagine some kind of malevolent force whisked them away from Pop Star in some way. And usually, where there are Waddle Dees, there's Dedede. Not to mention the last couple of games have had Meta Knight and Dedede used against Kirby in some way by the antagonist (D3 and Mecha Knight in Robobot and their inclusions in Star Allies before becoming playable Dream Friends).

But of course this is me doing my own guesswork, so it doesn't mean much at the end of the day lol
 

Jondolio

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I think it's really early to say since all we have is a 2 and a half minute trailer from like 2 days ago, but considering the main goals are freeing captured Waddle Dees, I would imagine some kind of malevolent force whisked them away from Pop Star in some way. And usually, where there are Waddle Dees, there's Dedede. Not to mention the last couple of games have had Meta Knight and Dedede used against Kirby in some way by the antagonist (D3 and Mecha Knight in Robobot and their inclusions in Star Allies before becoming playable Dream Friends).

But of course this is me doing my own guesswork, so it doesn't mean much at the end of the day lol
Sure, you're probably right. This could very well just be my bias talking, but we'll see.
 

BlondeLombax

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I would be shocked if Meta Knight and King Dedede skipped a Kirby game. They might be pretty scarce for a while though if everyone got warped to the setting all willy-nilly.
They've done so before. Multiple times over, in fact. Meta Knight isn't in the Dark Matter games in any capacity, and Dedede is nowhere to be seen in Amazing Mirror. Plus, the most they both had in Rainbow Curse is a pair of dolls you might not know exist if you don't care about collecting everything in sight.
 
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I think the new Kirby game is single player since I recall reading it on the official listing shortly after the Direct, but it appears to be gone now so what do I know :drshrug:. Either way it's hard to tell how much of a role BDee has until we get more info, but I don't think it'll be the "designated Player 4" we've come to expect from him. Whether it's a cameo, an alternate single player mode, some kind of story significance, or nothing at all remains to be seen.
 

Bobthealligator

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I would call it fake. But getting October 5 correctly? He is either really lucky, which is totally possible, or actually has legitimate information.
Now this is interesting.

View attachment 331568

Reposted
I wouldn't say really lucky, there are so many fake Smash Bros leaks that at least a few of them are guaranteed to get the date right.
Also, the thing that's odd to me is that they just jumped straight to Smash when there are so many other possible explanations. Basically we have a guy whose credentials we have no way of verifying posted on 4chan, I see no reason to give this the time of day
 

Cutie Gwen

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They've done so before. Multiple times over, in fact. Meta Knight isn't in the Dark Matter games in any capacity, and Dedede is nowhere to be seen in Amazing Mirror. Plus, the most they both had in Rainbow Curse is a pair of dolls you might not know exist if you don't care about collecting everything in sight.
I think it says a lot that the examples are a spinoff, a very early thing in the franchise's lifespan and a single game, I highly doubt that the 30th anniversary game would just choose to skip them
 

BlondeLombax

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I think it says a lot that the examples are a spinoff, a very early thing in the franchise's lifespan and a single game, I highly doubt that the 30th anniversary game would just choose to skip them
Meh, for all we know, they could appear, but be cursed to be exclusive to the opening & ending cutscenes like Dedede in Robobot, or limited to the 100% Clear movie as seen with Meta in Triple Deluxe, with clones and/or doppelgangers appearing in their place.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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They've done so before. Multiple times over, in fact. Meta Knight isn't in the Dark Matter games in any capacity, and Dedede is nowhere to be seen in Amazing Mirror. Plus, the most they both had in Rainbow Curse is a pair of dolls you might not know exist if you don't care about collecting everything in sight.
Eeeeh, they've still had a notable role or stand-in in every single mainline title (with Kirby and the Rainbow Curse, Kirby Fighters, and Kirby 3D Blast being the only spin-offs one or more of them have been absent) so I'd still be shocked if they weren't in the new one.


I think the new Kirby game is single player since I recall reading it on the official listing shortly after the Direct, but it appears to be gone now so what do I know :drshrug:. Either way it's hard to tell how much of a role BDee has until we get more info, but I don't think it'll be the "designated Player 4" we've come to expect from him. Whether it's a cameo, an alternate single player mode, some kind of story significance, or nothing at all remains to be seen.
Well...Kirby's Return to Dreamland and Kirby Star Allies are the only multiplayer modern Kirby games, so that in particular isn't surprising. I'm pretty confident he will have a role however, even if it's like the Street Pass item toss thing he did on the 3Ds.

INB4 he reprises his role as a boss.


If we're theory crafting recurring character appearances though:
  • The Animal Friends could make it in as "vehicles" for Kirby to ride around in, changing up the gameplay for a bit. Kinda like the Yoshi levels in Super Mario Galaxy 2.
  • It would not surprise me one bit if it turned out that the game's setting is Adeline's home world.
  • Morpho Knight could theoretically appear at any time for any reason.
The others I think are far less likely to show up, but it's interesting to think about. However, I do think that any of them could show up in the DLC for any reason assuming the game gets any.
 

BlondeLombax

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As of this moment, the entire world is now in the single-digit days until the final challenger for Smash Ultimate reveals themselves. So to kill time in this period of hype and anxiety, I’ve decided to ask some questions to you all about everything that went on in this insane period of a little under three years..
How did you lot get your start in the speculation scene? I was just a high school sophomore when Wii U/3DS landed, but my interest started growing when Roy and Ryu were leaked from the game files, not to mention all the chaos ensuing from the Fighter Ballot. Pretty soon I was left wondering who was popular or creative enough to get in, and why.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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I mean, this pass started with Min Min


I'm sorry ARMs fans, but Min Min didn't make me rush out and buy Pass 2.
Nah, that's fair, Max Brass would've been more hype anyway but we had Steve and Sephiroth right after.

It's close enough :p

there's sales data you can go out and look at yourself. It's not even that hard to find, here it is:
This was from before Sephiroth's reveal, so the middle bar is around when the ARMS fighter was revealed. As you can see, a fairly decent notch, even if it would be blown out of the water by Steve, but then, that was the same for Joker and Hero.
People already said it, I know, but this Nintendo's full digital sales of everything. And Q1 happens to be when New Horizons released, so I'd be more hard pressed to think that most of those digital sales are actually people buying NSO memberships with how unreal NH's sales were.

But either way, this picture of sales is too vague for us to get a proper idea and a bigger point no one else brought up is how this picture conveniently leaves out Steve, whose reveal was the first thing to outright break Twitter since Michael Jackson's death, and Sephiroth, one of the most iconic villains in all of gaming, due to showing only the first half of 2020 while both Steve and Sephiroth are Q4 of that year.

So we can't even do a comparison to prove Min Min was actually the peak and even if it was shown, digital sales would still seem lower because people already bought NSO for their New Horizons by that point.

In other words, not trying to be a jerk, but I think you've altered the truth so it could fit your narrative.
 
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Guybrush20X6

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As of this moment, the entire world is now in the single-digit days until the final challenger for Smash Ultimate reveals themselves. So to kill time in this period of hype and anxiety, I’ve decided to ask some questions to you all about everything that went on in this insane period of a little under three years..
How did you lot get your start in the speculation scene? I was just a high school sophomore when Wii U/3DS landed, but my interest started growing when Roy and Ryu were leaked from the game files, not to mention all the chaos ensuing from the Fighter Ballot. Pretty soon I was left wondering who was popular or creative enough to get in, and why.
It started when Brawl was first announced about 15 years ago now. I'd get into the school's computer labs every morning just to see what appeared on the Smash Dojo. It was SO hype when Sonic was revealed and he even had a trailer! The most exciting one for me though is still Pokemon Trainer.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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As of this moment, the entire world is now in the single-digit days until the final challenger for Smash Ultimate reveals themselves. So to kill time in this period of hype and anxiety, I’ve decided to ask some questions to you all about everything that went on in this insane period of a little under three years..
How did you lot get your start in the speculation scene? I was just a high school sophomore when Wii U/3DS landed, but my interest started growing when Roy and Ryu were leaked from the game files, not to mention all the chaos ensuing from the Fighter Ballot. Pretty soon I was left wondering who was popular or creative enough to get in, and why.
Didn't really get into the whole specula thing until the ESRB leak, personally.
 
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Evil Trapezium

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You know, people keep saying "Fighter 11 will be "this" character because it will promote "this" game" when in reality, none of the fighters in this pass had any relation to any of the upcoming games if it was a direct or something else. I think the only character that has ever got in due to an upcoming game was Hero.
 

Theguy123

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I personally think the sora leak at the end of the day is fake.

I think a lot of people are going in expecting the last character to be quite huge from the way they’re advertising this last character or because it’s the last character when I personally doubt it’s gonna be anything huge.

I think what we’re looking at is 1 of 3 options.

1) it will either be a 3rd party character well known to the audience but isn’t hugely popular

2) it might be a 3rd party character that Nintendo might of struggled to get the rights to or content to in either previous games or even smash ultimate and because they’ve got the rights now they wanna get promoting it because they’re happy

3) they known this character won’t hit sales well or won’t be huge with the fans so they’ve opted to have this character last in a standalone to draw as much hype to the character as possible

I personally think it’s gonna be a character on Layton’s level as an example. For example Layton is a character who’s fairly recognisable to the people and brings a unique moveset However the sales of his franchise and popularity is nowhere near some one like tekken or sonic or FF etc.

Not saying Layton is last by the way. Using him as an example
 

AmphabulouSnake

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I think a character from Undertale finishing the roster would please the most people all over the world.
Thinking about it Undertale is just MASSIVE in terms of popularity, both in Japan and the rest of the world, and that fame can still be felt everytime a new chapter of Deltarune comes out, it's just a massive deal (not to mention Deltarune chapter 2 for switch was revealed in the latest Nintendo direct, which means Nintendo considers this franchise important enough to not just consider it Indie)
I would certainly be pleased if Sakurai ended with that, even if I would prefer Doom Slayer, Reimu or Phoenix Wright/Professor Layton.
As long as the final character isn't Sora or Cinderace I'm pleased.
 
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GilTheGreat19

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You know, people keep saying "Fighter 11 will be "this" character because it will promote "this" game" when in reality, none of the fighters in this pass had any relation to any of the upcoming games if it was a direct or something else. I think the only character that has ever got in due to an upcoming game was Hero.
I mean didn’t Byleth line up with 3 Houses DLC? I know it’s not a game in itself but still
 

Wunderwaft

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I think a character from Undertale finishing the roster would please the most people all over the world.
Thinking about it Undertale is just MASSIVE in terms of popularity, both in Japan and the rest of the world, and that fame can still be felt everytime a new chapter of Deltarune comes out, it's just a massive deal (not to mention Deltarune chapter 2 for switch was revealed in the latest Nintendo direct, which means Nintendo considers this franchise important enough to not just consider it Indie)
I would certainly be pleased if Sakurai ended with that, even if I would prefer Doom Slayer, Reimu or Phoenix Wright/Professor Layton.
As long as the final character isn't Sora or Cinderace I'm pleased.
There is one scenario I can imagine an Undertale character making it in as FP11 and that's if Nintendo decided to add one more slot for the second pass after seeing the insane reception to the Sans Mii costume.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Hero: The grandfather that started the RPG games and the most RNG character

One of the two characters revealed at E3 2019 that caused mixed reactions and another "Anime Swordman" salt for some people.
Hero getting in convinced me to grab a copy of Dragon Quest VIII for 3DS

and XI of course

also
1:36 onwards

I still wanna do this in regular gameplay

both alignments

even the full body clone effects

give it to me Sakurai

NOW
Yeah. That’s what stood out to me in the trailer. To be able to use it on ANYONE as well, even Kirby and the DLC… I’m still waiting Sakurai

this way I won’t have to do countless WoL runs or mod my switch for certain screenshots
 
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