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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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MarioRaccoon

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There a good chunk of candidates that uses swords and their games are from 2010’s

For example: Chosen Undead from Dark Souls (2011) or Dragonborn from Skyrim (2011)
 

MrMcNuts

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Kinda ironic this thread got riled up bout me personally thinking Reimu isn't that iconic and everyone thinks it shouldn't matter for speculation when this is the same thread that jumps on the iconic wagon when me or someone else mentions Rayman ("JUHPAN POPYULARETY" or "lol rabbids killed him" ), then suddenly it all matters?

I mean want Reimu all ya want but pretty funny lol
 

UltimateCyborgOverlord

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Looks like the statues at a Mcdonalds.
Dude, if I went by a McDonald's and they had Sonic set prop statues out front... I'd order some unplanned nugs on the spot!


Sniff I miss those old statues. Cries in oldness
I've not seen my boy Ronald in forever man!

Perhaps one day he can live on in Smash. He once beat up an alien and made him cry for mercy as he just stared there smiling at him, so he can qualify for fighting mercilessly.
McDonald's Alien beating.png
 

SKX31

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With you bringing up KoF, I'd also like to add that judging games solely by raw sales is going to hurt the ratings of not just unorthodox fan-driven works, but also quarter-munching arcade games like Space Invaders and free-to-play games like, dare I say it, Fortni-(Burns to ash upon invoking the name of the Cursed Game)

But speaking seriously, while "Sell this game and see how many copies are shipped" is one of the most prominent strategies, it's not the only strategy, and judging games by sales alone is a rather shaky strategy, to say the least. Not to mention games getting warmer reception later on and the extra variable of ports muddying the waters further.

What I'm saying is, while sales can be used as a bit of an indicator for how big a series is, they're just a fraction of a greater whole, and sometimes circumstances (Like piracy, as you mentioned) means that sales are a smaller fraction than normal. Short version being, Sales aren't everything.
Well put. Hell, if we went by sales alone to define who's iconic, then GTA is more iconic than like 90% of the cast, and yet it's not even on a lot of people's radars.

That's not to say sales don't matter, but please, let's not go back to Volume-1 era of sales being the end-all for discussions.
I know this point is going to be superfluos, but:

Looks briefly at the South Korean internet cafés (where StarCraft and LoL got their popularity in that country) as well as how big Chinese corps like Tencent pretty much fused mobile games into their social media platforms on a level Facebook tried to copy with Instant Games.

Perhaps there's a gimmick where the stage settles on a place when a picture is snapped? It would be a neat visual effect, and it would also represent the gameplay pretty well without being too intrusive.
As long as the flash isn't too bright (there'd be some - notably those sensitive to flashing lights - that would have a problem with the stage after that, akin to 4's Final Destination) I do think that it could be a interesting gimmick.

There a good chunk of candidates that uses swords and their games are from 2010’s

For example: Chosen Undead from Dark Souls (2011) or Dragonborn from Skyrim (2011)
I really don't think that's a strong point when a lot of potential sword users are from the 80s (Takamaru, Hayabusa), 90s (Sakura, Saki) or the 2000s (Dante, Chief).
 

SharkLord

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Kinda ironic this thread got riled up bout me personally thinking Reimu isn't that iconic and everyone thinks it shouldn't matter for speculation when this is the same thread that jumps on the iconic wagon when me or someone else mentions Rayman ("JUHPAN POPYULARETY" or "lol rabbids killed him" ), then suddenly it all matters?

I mean want Reimu all ya want but pretty funny lol
I gave my opinion. You more or less tossed it aside and just said "Anyways so-and-so is more iconic" without any evidence or counterpoints. I reserve the right to be miffed in my response.

Regarding Rayman, I'm all for talking about him. It's just that I haven't really seen him brought up lately, and I can't really give much input if there's nothing to put it in :drshrug:. Though, I admittedly don't know that much about Rayman, so I can't say on how big he is, so I wouldn't be able to give many corrections on people arguing for or against him.

At the very least, I'm not that bugged by the Miis, seeing as it's only two of them. If it was three or an entire wave like with Capcom, I'd be a lot more hesitant to buy into Ubisoft, but it's not and I'm pretty lenient about Miis and companies.
 

Mushroomguy12

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Happy 15th Anniversary to Okami!

 

Louie G.

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Kinda ironic this thread got riled up bout me personally thinking Reimu isn't that iconic and everyone thinks it shouldn't matter for speculation when this is the same thread that jumps on the iconic wagon when me or someone else mentions Rayman ("JUHPAN POPYULARETY" or "lol rabbids killed him" ), then suddenly it all matters?

I mean want Reimu all ya want but pretty funny lol
...So what is it then? I don’t think you thought this gotcha out very well since it equally labels you as a hypocrite for believing Rayman is perfectly valid despite being about as obscure as Reimu, just in the opposite region. You say “JUHPAN POPYULARETY” in big dumb quotes like that’s a ridiculous argument when you literally used the inverse against another character.

And for what it’s worth, I personally don’t think either of them are happening for exactly that reason. I think at least some notoriety and/or accessibility on a worldwide scale is a good thing to have. Feel free to talk about either of them as much as you’d like though.
 
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Gnateb

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Dark Souls might, might, crossover with Fortnite soon. If so, maybe it's a sign that Bamco is dusting off the IP for further ports/crossovers (a Dark Souls II Switch port, specifically).
 

MrMcNuts

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...So what is it then? I don’t think you thought this gotcha out very well since it equally labels you as a hypocrite for believing Rayman is perfectly valid despite being equally obscure as Reimu, just in the opposite region. You say “JUHPAN POPYULARETY” in big dumb quotes like that’s a ridiculous argument when you literally used the inverse against another character.

And for what it’s worth, I personally don’t think either of them are happening for exactly that reason. I think at least some notoriety and/or accessibility on a worldwide scale is a good thing to have. Feel free to talk about either of them as much as you’d like though.
This was pointing out hypocrisy of dogging on one character for the iconic arguement but using it against another character, not a gotcha moment.

And no he's not equally obscure as Reimu lmfao. Being well known in several countries is better than being well known in one country, so not really an inverse. But like I said I'm not here to continue discussing reimu I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy of this thread
 

SharkLord

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This was pointing out hypocrisy of dogging on one character for the iconic arguement but using it against another character, not a gotcha moment.

And no he's not equally obscure as Reimu lmfao. Being well known in several countries is better than being well known in one country, so not really an inverse. But like I said I'm not here to continue discussing reimu I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy of this thread
For what it's worth, I haven't been talking about Rayman much at all, and I don't know how many of the people here have either. The thread would seem hypocritical if it were a person, but it's not. It's multiple people, with different opinions and standards. You can't really point fingers at "the thread" when the thread itself doesn't make one singular decision.

It should also be noted that in the context of Smash, it's more or less an inverse. The major markets are boiled down to the West and Japan, with the West being grouped together because of shared interests and statuses. If Nintendo viewed the West as multiple markets like you made it out to be, then Japan basically wouldn't matter and we might've never gotten the likes of Marth and Hero. When you factor in how Western countries tend to share more interests with each other than Japan at least game-wise, they can be grouped together, and it gets simplified to just Japan and overseas.

Admittedly, I'm not the best with foreign markets and stuff like that, so there's a decent chance I got something wrong. Tagging SKX31 SKX31 for clarification, since they're the resident expert on markets and how they're grouped and all that.
wait **** really? Do you have a link to any leaks or hints that insinuate that?
They used to have a link, but then IT DIED like all things that get involved with Dark Souls :4pacman:
 
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3BitSaurus

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This was pointing out hypocrisy of dogging on one character for the iconic arguement but using it against another character, not a gotcha moment.

And no he's not equally obscure as Reimu lmfao. Being well known in several countries is better than being well known in one country, so not really an inverse. But like I said I'm not here to continue discussing reimu I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy of this thread
You could just as well say that Rayman is just "well known" in the US and western Europe, while Touhou is a cultural phenomena in itself in Japan - the same country where they make Smash.

If you were to ask me, neither of them are frontrunners, but if I had to point at one, I'd point at Reimu, because so far both western characters we got had at least some popularity in Japan. The comparison between the two doesn't work at all.
 

cashregister9

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Support spirits

Welp that was weird back to normalcy. No clue why they skipped a few minutes
 
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SharkLord

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You could just as well say that Rayman is just "well known" in the US and western Europe, while Touhou is a cultural phenomena in itself in Japan - the same country where they make Smash.

If you were to ask me, neither of them are frontrunners, but if I had to point at one, I'd point at Reimu, because so far both western characters we got had at least some popularity in Japan. The comparison between the two doesn't work at all.
There's also all the fanworks bleeding over to the Western side of the internet, but if the divisiveness we've seen first-hand means anything, it's hard to measure. I suppose that's what makes a fanwork a fanwork; It's not officially catalogued or anything, it's just some people who really like a series putting their own spin on things. The problem is that we don't know how to gauge how big Touhou fan content is in the West, much less agree on how much the fanworks actually mean compared to the official games, which is why we keep circling back to these debates without much changing.

At the very least, though, I think we can agree on laughing at the fruits of the late 2000's internet.
 

N3ON

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I'll preface this by saying I didn't and don't think we'll get either, nor do I think either had/has a very good shot. I don't think characters with lopsided popularity stand in good stead bar some extreme exceptions. But currently I'd give the edge to Reimu because Ubisoft seems to have shot their shot and wound up with Rabbids and Altair costumes, and I don't think they'll get anything else.

That aside, it's a tricky situation. Touhou in Japan is bigger than Rayman is in the west, but Rayman is actually on the market in Japan, and published by Nintendo, while the main Touhou games are only available via patching Japanese games. That's not good for the purposes of Smash; that's not what Nintendo seeks.

Plus to date Nintendo has opted for big companies on the roster and indies in supporting roles. I'm sure that'll change eventually, but I don't think it'll change with Reimu. I mean there are indies with larger global caches that have not made the grade. That has me leaning towards Rayman. I mean, were Ubisoft not already spoken for. But they are. So I guess I'm more leaning to Reimu.

But of course, ultimately, I'm sticking with my trusty longstanding favourite: none of the above.
 
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SharkLord

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I'll preface this by saying I didn't and don't think we'll get either, nor do I think either had/has a very good shot. I don't think characters with lopsided popularity stand in good stead bar some extreme exceptions. But currently I'd give the edge to Reimu because Ubisoft seems to have shot their shot and wound up with Rabbids and Altair costumes, and I don't think they'll get anything else.

That aside, it's a tricky situation. Touhou in Japan is bigger than Rayman is in the west, but Rayman is actually on the market in Japan, and published by them, while the main Touhou games are only available via patching Japanese games. That's not good for the purposes of Smash; that's not what Nintendo seeks.

Plus to date Nintendo has opted for big companies on the roster and indies in supporting roles. I'm sure that'll change eventually, but I don't think it'll change with Reimu. I mean there are indies with larger global caches that have not made the grade. That has me leaning towards Rayman. I mean, were Ubisoft not already spoken for. But they are. So I guess I'm more leaning to Reimu.

But of course, ultimately, I'm sticking with my trusty longstanding favourite: none of the above.
Well, that depends on your definition of mainline. The shooters require patches, even if they're easily accessible from Steam, but Antimony of Common Flowers - An officially-made fighting game, mind you - Is releasing on the Switch in a couple days. It's even translated for you!
Touhou Hyouibana ~ Antinomy of Common Flowers. for Nintendo Switch - Nintendo Game Details
Granted, it's not the best translation, per say, but it's still an official translation for an official game on a Nintendo system, so it at least counts for something.
 

N3ON

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Well, that depends on your definition of mainline. The shooters require patches, even if they're easily accessible from Steam, but Antimony of Common Flowers - An officially-made fighting game, mind you - Is releasing on the Switch in a couple days. It's even translated for you!
Touhou Hyouibana ~ Antinomy of Common Flowers. for Nintendo Switch - Nintendo Game Details
Granted, it's not the best translation, per say, but it's still an official translation for an official game on a Nintendo system, so it at least counts for something.
Yeah, not that one. The bullet hell ones. Those are, to my knowledge, the mainline games.
 
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MrMcNuts

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That aside, it's a tricky situation. Touhou in Japan is bigger than Rayman is in the west
I get what ya mean but strongly disagree with this part.

Most people who I've asked around who actually live in Japan say that while it is more popular in Japan, it's still niche and considered part of the hardcore otaku fandom.

Sure there's cons dedicated to it but that really just tells me that it's fanbase is passionate rather than being huge. Otherwise if we used what has a con to determine what's popular then Mario, DK, and other gaming juggernauts wouldn't fit the bill.
 

SharkLord

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Yeah, not that one. The bullet hell ones. Those are, to my knowledge, the mainline games.
Well, the fighters do add in some bullet hell patterns in the Story Mode so technically speaking they are bullet hells :4pacman:

Speaking seriously, we all know the weird situation with fangames, so I thought it was best to mention that one for the sake of clarity. For anyone curious as to how these games are sorted, there's this:
Simply put, the Touhou hierarchy goes like this
  • Mainline - The official, ZUN-made shooters. Use whole numbers to indicate their placement in the series.
  • Spinoffs - ZUN-made games that don't fit with the "usual" shooters, such as unorthodox shooters and the fighters. Sometimes some fans are brought in, most notably Twilight Frontier, but ZUN is still calling the shots. Listed with numbers and decimal points (i.e. 12.8), based on the games they were released between (For example, IaMP released between Touhou 7 and Touhou 8, so it's numbered 7.5).
  • Fangames - Anything helmed by fans. ZUN usually has no involvement in these whatsoever beyond his blessings, though there are some occasions where he's stepped down and composed some songs for them. Since ZUN didn't take control of these, they don't have any numbering.
Gensou Skydrift would be placed under the latter.
 

N3ON

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I get what ya mean but strongly disagree with this part.

Most people who I've asked around who actually live in Japan say that while it is more popular in Japan, it's still niche and considered part of the hardcore otaku fandom.

Sure there's cons dedicated to it but that really just tells me that it's fanbase is passionate rather than being huge. Otherwise if we used what has a con to determine what's popular then Mario, DK, and other gaming juggernauts wouldn't fit the bill.
It's hard to make accurate claims about a series where so few actual metrics indicative of total audience size are available and by nature of its online fandom, most of what gets reported is by fans who carry their own biases.

Well, the fighters do add in some bullet hell patterns in the Story Mode so technically speaking they are bullet hells :4pacman:

Speaking seriously, we all know the weird situation with fangames, so I thought it was best to mention that one for the sake of clarity. For anyone curious as to how these games are sorted, there's this:
Keep in mind that a spin-off being officially made is just standard practice for the rest of the industry, bar fangames on the internet that no one really takes seriously. So if a spin-off for Touhou is officially made that just elevates it to... normalcy.
 

SharkLord

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Keep in mind that a spin-off being officially made is just standard practice for the rest of the industry, bar fangames on the internet that no one really takes seriously. So if a spin-off for Touhou is officially made that just elevates it to... normalcy.
So basically, normalcy involves "possession that takes over the body as well as the mind" and the Spider-Men Pointing meme if there was a third Spider-Man thrown into the mix. Good to know :4pacman:
 
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7NATOR

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Interesting theory, I do kinda like the idea of Katalina entering the roster. ^^

With that said, since every CP has some form of uniqueness in their mechanics, what would Katalina's be?
I have no idea. I'm not familiar with Granblue, nor am I that interested in the series either. She has Water and Ice abilities though, and apparently she got a stand in Granblue Fantasy

I also wasn't being specific towards one character. I left it open to Granblue, Dragalia Lost, any other Cygames I.P in general

I get what ya mean but strongly disagree with this part.

Most people who I've asked around who actually live in Japan say that while it is more popular in Japan, it's still niche and considered part of the hardcore otaku fandom.

Sure there's cons dedicated to it but that really just tells me that it's fanbase is passionate rather than being huge. Otherwise if we used what has a con to determine what's popular then Mario, DK, and other gaming juggernauts wouldn't fit the bill.
I wouldn't be surprised if Touhou was being overrated in popularity. Being popular in Japan I can see, but it may not be the phenomenon that people make it out to be

On the other end though, Touhou doesn't have to be a phenomenon to get in though. I don't think Nintendo Exclusively picks characters from Franchises that can be recognized on the street from Many people. Perhaps Touhou is just known by the gamers in Japan, and that's really all it needs.

On the other token though, Rayman is known by gamers at large also, at least in Regions besides in the East, so yeah
 

SpectreJordan

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Didn't Sakurai said that was no echo fighters in fighters pass?

At 30:51

People focus on this statement too much. He was saying that they won’t sell you something like Fire Mario (who’s an echo of Mario) as one of the FP characters. Echoes as separate DLC are still on the table until the game is done IMO.
 

SharkLord

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People focus on this statement too much. He was saying that they won’t sell you something like Fire Mario (who’s an echo of Mario) as one of the FP characters. Echoes as separate DLC are still on the table until the game is done IMO.
The thing is, Sakurai's asserted time and again that FP2 is the end. Unless they squeeze in an Echo or two between now and CP11, there isn't much room for an Echo as separate DLC in the first place.
 

Lionfranky

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Speaking of sales, I think bringing Japan factor against character like Master Chief is disingenuous. People bring up how Japan react to Banjo, but those reaction videos are cherry picked from hardcore Smash fans. General Japanese gamers were pretty much scratching their heads. And people bring Japanese ballot to justify Banjo, but ballot in general is still not end of all mean just like sales. We had characters that weren't even on any ballot whatsoever.

Looking at you, gatekeepers :glare:
 

Ayumi Tachibana

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I actually can understand where MrMcNuts MrMcNuts is coming from. Touhou's current status in Japan is very unique, and that's the main reason why it's so divisive even in the speculation scene here in Japan.
Touhou today is popular among young kids, notably kindergarten and elementary girls, as the adults still active on the convention scenes and even ZUN himself are telling so, but the people speak up more on the internet still share the images of Touhou from Nico Nico era. This gap in understanding between them is causing a split in Japan from what I can observe.
So as I say everytime when I talk about Touhou, if it gets represented in Smash, the current rising popularity within young generations will be a big factor. This is why I always say Nintendo has a good enough reason to approach Touhou, but it will never get a notice just from Sakurai alone.
I also think popularity in China shouldn't be underestimated but I'll save this for another time.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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What's funny is that I think a lot of the debates about the merits of icon status and if so and so is significant enough for Smash feel far more related to DLC than base game. If the next title had Rayman and Reimu in the release at launch, yeah you'd have a "literally who?" in both regions for the respective unfamiliar character, but I think long term both get accepted as part of the eclectic Smash roster. Even those not thrilled about it would likely have other new characters that would likely make up for them.
 

Gnateb

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wait **** really? Do you have a link to any leaks or hints that insinuate that?
I'm not sure if it means anything, but in a Fortnite Live Event like a month ago you could pretty obviously see a silhouette praising the sun in the background, standing in a ray of light. I don't know why Epic would reference DS randomly if absolutely nothing is in the works.
 

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N3ON

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Speaking of sales, I think bringing Japan factor against character like Master Chief is disingenuous. People bring up how Japan react to Banjo, but those reaction videos are cherry picked from hardcore Smash fans. General Japanese gamers were pretty much scratching their heads. And people bring Japanese ballot to justify Banjo, but ballot in general is still not end of all mean just like sales. We had characters that weren't even on any ballot whatsoever.

Looking at you, gatekeepers :glare:
Banjo-Kazooie may have been added more due to western demand but the game did well enough in Japan that's it's not the same as a character that's only ever existed on a very niche console over there. I mean Banjo used to be a Nintendo character. That's the peak of the series.

That said, when I said there were some extreme exceptions towards lopsided popularity probably being prohibitive, I consider Halo one of those exceptions. I think it was monumental enough outside Japan that it being pretty niche over there won't stunt its chances to the point of implausibility. I've posited it as the inverse of Dragon Quest and I still see it that way, more or less.
 

DarthEnderX

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What Impa version would you want?
As a Sheik Echo, I'd have to pick Age of Calamity. Cause kunai ninja.

If she was her own character, I'd prefer Hyrule Warriors naginata Impa.

I wonder if they would actually do Galacta Knight with Meta already having such a similar alt. (Tbh they might.)
If he became an echo I'd expect them to remove the GK alt the way they removed the Dark Samus alt from Samus.

I kinda prefer Big Boss as he has more importance to the MGS series as a whole. He's the original bad guy of the series and is the main playable character* in plenty of the games. I don't know, maybe you can change my mind though.
If anything, Big Boss is TOO similar. The Snake in Smash really represents both Solid and Naked.

Bass has too many unique features. Wouldn't Proto Man work better as a Mega Man echo?
Probably, but I'd rather have a villain.

Depending on the game, his differences might be very few. And normally it's just different dash animation and no charge shot(though he has a charge shot in MM7).
 
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Lionfranky

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Banjo-Kazooie may have been added more due to western demand but the game did well enough in Japan that's it's not the same as a character that's only ever existed on a very niche console over there. I mean Banjo used to be a Nintendo character. That's the peak of the series.

That said, when I said there were some extreme exceptions towards lopsided popularity probably being prohibitive, I consider Halo one of those exceptions. I think it was monumental enough outside Japan that it being pretty niche over there won't stunt its chances to the point of implausibility. I've posited it as the inverse of Dragon Quest and I still see it that way, more or less.
Yeah... but 400k (Banjo) isn't that much higher than 110k (Halo 3). I doubt Nintendo takes calculation that far. Banjo Tooie sold even less at 200k so even smaller gap, let alone Nuts and Bolts.
 

ZelDan

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Speaking of indie characters, I was both super excited and super dejected when the Sans costume was revealed. I still hope that Undertale will get a spirit event or something
Yeah, I felt that way too. And then there's Shovel Knight where his Assist trophy just made me feel dejected...

Well, atleast Shovel Knight's AT was announced in an otherwise fantastic direct, unlike my other MW...
 

DarthEnderX

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I think Blaziken could work fine with Falcon's moveset I just think it's super weird for a clone to be from a completely different series.
No echo or clone should be from a different franchise than the one they're copying.

Ganondorf is currently the only one in Smash and that desperately needs to change.

I don't see Reimu happening at all when indies who are actually iconic like Shovel Knight, Sans and Cuphead couldn't even make the cut yet
Exactly.

Need to make one of those "don't make me tap the sign" memes about iconicness being subjective.

You'll never make headway debating such intangible parameters.
Implying there's any way to make headway in Smash speculation...

You can tap your sign all day. Iconicness isn't any less valid than any of the other parameters people discuss, and we're not going to stop talking about it just cause you don't like it.

I just want to say; although others have said the like about this, there is no such thing as something being truly iconic. Iconic is subjective.
No ****. So is "popularity". Or "unique moveset potential". Or every other factor people discuss here.

Unless your speculation method is literally just "the series with the most sales will get in" then it's ALL subjective.
 
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Gnateb

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Shovel Knight's assist trophy is awesome imo, but I was still sad to see him become one.

When it comes to Undertale reps, Sans and Frisk are definitely not my first choices. My most wanted Undertale character falls into the "spoiler category", and since Sakurai obviously cares about not spoiling RPGs, this character is double-not-happening. I don't know how to hide spoiler text, but most of you can probably surmise the guy I'm describing. He's one of my favorite final boss characters ever, hands down, especially since my first playthrough was blind
 
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