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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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NessAtc.

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I mean, they also said to not read too much into it.


We dunno what'll happen.


The last character could be a whimper

Or it could be a big shot



We dunno. What we do know is they're making a big deal out of advertising this final presentation.
If they wanted to make a big deal about the character, they would have revealed it here, when there's inevitably a larger set of eyes to watch it. Sure, they're making a big deal about the presentation itself, but not actually the character specifically.
 

Shroob

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If they wanted to make a big deal about the character, they would have revealed it here, when there's inevitably a larger set of eyes to watch it. Sure, they're making a big deal about the presentation itself, but not actually the character specifically.
Or, they just wanted to do a final smash presentation.



We dunno anything, and we shouldn't pretend like we could do. October 5th could be a HUGE character, or someone really small. We just dunno.
 

NessAtc.

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Or, they just wanted to do a final smash presentation.



We dunno anything, and we shouldn't pretend like we could do. October 5th could be a HUGE character, or someone really small. We just dunno.
They're doing a final smash presentation regardless of if they announce the character in it or not. N3ON actually said this, too.

In a world where Ultimate never got DLC, our last "smash presentation" would have had Incineroar, and maybe Piranha Plant.
 
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MooMew64

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I think people are definitely reading too much into this situation.

Why would having a final presentation cut down viewerbase? If all eyes are on a big general Direct that then informs them of a separate presentation…Isn’t that still capitalizing on the general’s viewership?

Again, I think we’re starting to tinfoil a bit, even for us.
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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No matter who it is, it'll get a lot more views as a single presentation as is. It also will get people interested because of it being "the end" alone. Combining the reveal and every tidbit into one final bit is a good method to get the most attention.

It's working already.
 

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He absolutely has contacts in the industry and he's definitely alluded to them in the past. I just don't think he's anywhere in a chain that would have even a drop of Nintendo information, let alone Smash.
The only way he would is if the chain he'd be a part of comes from a company that gets a character in Smash.

And given how he said he expected the reveal to be at Game Awards... yeah, he has no info on this.
 

perfectchaos83

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I think people are definitely reading too much into this situation.

Why would having a final presentation cut down viewerbase? If all eyes are on a big general Direct that then informs them of a separate presentation…Isn’t that still capitalizing on the general’s viewership?

Again, I think we’re starting to tinfoil a bit, even for us.
I understand the mentality. "Nintendo Direct" is bound to have more eyes on it than "Smash Direct". A Nintendo Direct is going to have a lot more casual eyes on it, specifically, eyes that don't tend to partake in Smash Directs.
 

NessAtc.

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Why would having a final presentation cut down viewerbase?
...because inevitably airing a smash-focused presentation is automatically going to draw in less viewers than a nintendo direct?

Like, that should be proof enough seeing how many people usually get drawn in by presentations. It's not a huge amount compared to actual spotlights like this, and again I cite back to evo 2018. That was a GIGANTIC stage to have a reveal, and the majority of companies take advantage of that, but Nintendo just said "here's a direct" then.

You're all significantly overestimating the hype smash alone brings.

Or it could be a big, Earth shattering drop
Nah, it couldn't. There's no reason to not place it earlier, if that was the case. It's extremely poor business sense to have a character that sells the pass at the end of the pass, when it can only sell itself, and not the pass.
 
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MooMew64

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I understand the mentality. "Nintendo Direct" is bound to have more eyes on it than "Smash Direct". A Nintendo Direct is going to have a lot more casual eyes on it, specifically, eyes that don't tend to partake in Smash Directs.
Ehhhh, Steve was revealed in a standalone presentation and Twitter exploded.

I don’t think the method of news delivery is relevant to the character’s status in the industry. People will watch and news will spread along with Nintendo’s own social media campaigns: It’s not really gonna be that different IMO.:drshrug:
 

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Nah, it couldn't. There's no reason to not place it earlier, if that was the case. It's extremely poor business sense to have a character that sells the pass at the end of the pass, when it can only sell itself, and not the pass.
I mean, this pass started with Min Min


I'm sorry ARMs fans, but Min Min didn't make me rush out and buy Pass 2.



Let's all just take a back seat and, wait. It's 9 days, we'll manage.
 
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MooMew64

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...because inevitably airing a smash-focused presentation is automatically going to draw in less viewers than a nintendo direct?

Like, that should be proof enough seeing how many people usually get drawn in by presentations. It's not a huge amount compared to actual spotlights like this, and again I cite back to evo 2018. That was a GIGANTIC stage to have a reveal, and the majority of companies take advantage of that, but Nintendo just said "here's a direct" then.

You're all significantly overestimating the hype smash alone brings.



Nah, it couldn't. There's no reason to not place it earlier, if that was the case. It's extremely poor business sense to have a character that sells the pass at the end of the pass, when it can only sell itself, and not the pass.
I mean

All the standalone presentations dominated Twitter trends the day of their airing.

I’d say Smash pulls its own weight.
 
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NessAtc.

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I mean, this pass started with Min Min


I'm sorry ARMs fans, but Min Min didn't make me rush out and buy Pass 2.



Let's all just take a back seat and, wait. It's 9 days, we'll manage.
It actually did for a lot of people. Min Min surprisingly was one of the peaks for Pass 2's adoption. Sure it wasn't as much as Steve brought in, but it wasn't nothing. It was akin to Joker in that regard.

I mean
The standalone presentations dominated Twitter trends the day of their airing.
I’d say Smash pulls its own weight.
it does, but the weight it pulls is far less significant than a direct. if the weight smash pulls is 1, a direct pulls about 100. Because it's more than just smash. It has content for more people to enjoy, and not just smash.

the presentation will have a significantly lesser attachment rate than the direct did. That is an undeniable fact given the past.
 
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Shroob

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It actually did for a lot of people. Min Min surprisingly was one of the peaks for Pass 2's adoption. Sure it wasn't as much as Steve brought in, but it wasn't nothing. It was akin to Joker in that regard.
Citation needed.



Anyway, all I'm saying is just hold your horses. No one needs to start the doomer posting and pointing fingers yet. We got a bit to go til the end still.
 

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For most of the year I jumped to conclusions on what I thought was strong reasoning for how I thought they'd handle this last reveal, and I was mostly incorrect. I'm not going to take the insubstantial information at hand and use it to close potential doors, and I'd caution others the same.
 
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MooMew64

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TBH though

‘Nothing is set in stone either way: There’s evidence to show Byleth was originally planned for TGA.

Kazuya was E3, despite not being super earth shattering.

Steve was just a standalone, random presentation.

I think we’re overthinking this a tad.

Just gotta wait and see. This isn’t something we can narrow down from previous experience when the data is all over the place.
 

NessAtc.

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Citation needed.



Anyway, all I'm saying is just hold your horses. No one needs to start the doomer posting and pointing fingers yet. We got a bit to go til the end still.
there's sales data you can go out and look at yourself. It's not even that hard to find, here it is:
1632628375063.png

This was from before Sephiroth's reveal, so the middle bar is around when the ARMS fighter was revealed. As you can see, a fairly decent notch, even if it would be blown out of the water by Steve, but then, that was the same for Joker and Hero.
 

Shroob

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there's sales data you can go out and look at yourself. It's not even that hard to find, here it is:View attachment 331648
This was from before Sephiroth's reveal, so the middle bar is around when the ARMS fighter was revealed. As you can see, a fairly decent notch, even if it would be blown out of the water by Steve, but then, that was the same for Joker and Hero.
I mean, those are sales numbers, but they're online numbers in general, not just Smash.


I don't doubt that Smash is a good amount of those, but Smash isn't all of those. It's data, but without exact numbers, it's inconclusive at best.



But again, like everyone else is saying, let's all just chillax and take it easy.
 

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TBH though

‘Nothing is set in stone either way: There’s evidence to show Byleth was originally planned for TGA.

Kazuya was E3, despite not being super earth shattering.

Steve was just a standalone, random presentation.

I think we’re overthinking this a tad.

Just gotta wait and see. This isn’t something we can narrow down from previous experience when the data is all over the place.
Tbf basically none of Nintendo's marketing in 2020 was what I'd assume their Plan A was.
 

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NessAtc.

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I mean, those are sales numbers, but they're online numbers in general, not just Smash.


I don't doubt that Smash is a good amount of those, but Smash isn't all of those. It's data, but without exact numbers, it's inconclusive at best.



But again, like everyone else is saying, let's all just chillax and take it easy.
Well, when you can attach the increases to a specific time in the timeline for smash, it's pretty easy to see what can contribute. And by that logic, you're supposing that Steve couldn't have contributed as much, since it's all "cumulative".

The ARMS fighter brought in a fair bit of adopters. It wasn't as much as Hero did for pass 1 or Steve did for pass 2, but it was not nothing either. Again, it was like Joker.

Just because you shouldn't think too much about how Steve was "standalone" doesn't mean you can't think about how 11's being handled. Steve was revealed the way he did because there was no other option; they couldn't put it in a partner presents, because that wasn't the point of them, so all they could do was just reveal. Here, they had a choice to reveal with many prying eyes, but chose not to.
 
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perfectchaos83

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Just because you shouldn't think too much about how Steve was "standalone" doesn't mean you can't think about how 11's being handled. Steve was revealed the way he did because there was no other option; they couldn't put it in a partner presents, because that wasn't the point of them, so all they could do was just reveal. Here, they had a choice to reveal with many prying eyes, but chose not to.
I'll say in regards to Steve, I do think that Minecon happening at around the same time played a big part in when he was revealed as well.
 

NessAtc.

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I still think it's silly to start doomposting when we just don't know what's gonna happen lol.
I'm not at all doomposting. I'm merely quelling the idea that it can be a super gigantic mindblowing character. I strongly doubt it'll be a shill character, either. That probably should have been in the direct as well.
 

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I'm not at all doomposting. I'm merely quelling the idea that it can be a super gigantic mindblowing character. I strongly doubt it'll be a shill character, either. That probably should have been in the direct as well.
I mean, there's nothing saying it won't be either.


All I'm saying, is let's just wait and see.


There's no need to be 'right' about this, and frankly, it's not yours, mine, or anyone else's job to 'quell' how other people think. If they wanna go crazy, let 'em. If it blows up in their face, it's not yours, mine, or anyone else's fault except their own.
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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There's absolutely zero legitimate ways to tell how big or small the character is. This is not being based upon some kind of evidence or logic.

Smash Reveals easily get views. Smash Directs do too, especially when the reveal is there. This isn't an issue.

Could they be a megaton character? Absolutely! Could they be a niche character(or maybe bordering on obscure)? Absolutely! Could they be relatively known but not the most popular pick? Absolutely! Anything is possible and they did a great job guaranteeing we cannot know what it'll be.
 

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there's sales data you can go out and look at yourself. It's not even that hard to find, here it is:View attachment 331648
This was from before Sephiroth's reveal, so the middle bar is around when the ARMS fighter was revealed. As you can see, a fairly decent notch, even if it would be blown out of the water by Steve, but then, that was the same for Joker and Hero.
This isn't just for Smash... this is for all of Nintendo's digital sales, and you start to see them increase and peak when everybody was bunkering down and Animal Crossing released. Min Min wouldn't release until one day before the end of FY21/Q1, which is the fourth bar.

This situation isn't quite as straightforward as "Min Min is getting people to buy DLC". And I think part of it is also because a lot of people probably didn't bother picking up FP2 until there was actually a character available for it, and to that end there was a degree of interchangeability with whoever ended up first.

Also something to keep in mind is the fiscal quarter in which Steve released isn't on this chart. It would be interesting to see how the holiday quarter stacked up against the height of stay at home.

In any case, this evidence entails a lot more influences than just Min Min.

True, but I’d still say either way, the point stands we can’t say who the character is and isn’t from the presentation being standalone or a huge General.
I mean, had everything gone to plan, it's possible this upcoming presentation would be the first and only standalone reveal for Ultimate.

And that's assuming this reveal was always planned to stand on its own. Which also might not be the case. Who knows.
 

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Right.

And that doesn't mean the character is big or not.
Let's do something better… Let's just understand for a moment here why it's 99% not gonna end being a huge character, with the reason being completely a business one, one that Nintendo has already proven to us with the 1st Pass and has maintained to this point. Here it is:

If Nintendo has anything big to sell during DLC and there is a Pass format happening for said amount of DLCs, that format is where they gain the most profit with. Nintendo wants to profit the most possible, and to do that you need to get people interested in buying said format before they stop seeing any reason to do so, a.k.a. when they just realize they don't care about 70/80/90% of the amount of characters in the pass, and they just proceed to buy characters individually instead ( or any character at all ). Yes, it's Smash, yes, Nintendo are rich… yet that doesn't change the fact they still pursue the most profit possible from the stuff they do. They don't just bank on the popularity and success of a game and abandon getting the most profit possible from it. They don't do that, certainly not with Smash.

So…
The way they profit the most from BIG characters in the pass, is by having them during the time when people have not given up on the idea of buying said pass and proceeding to just buy whichever character individually when it's revealed.

Taking THAT in mind, and please DO keep it in mind for the rest of this message… let's see how the 1st Pass had its pass sellers located… Ah yes, none of them closed the pass… Instead, they have these pass sellers no later than midway of the amount of reveals. To what end? to profit the best way possible, which is via selling the Pass format. None of the pass sellers, Hero, Joker or Banjo, closed that 1st Pass, and it's because of THAT reason. Instead, they left Byleth, a 1st party character, to be the closer of the pass. A character that wouldn't have made the pass format sell any more than the other actual big characters (3rd party ones). Having had Joker, Hero, Banjo, or even Terry as the closer of the 1st pass, would not have generated pass format sales AT ALL at that point. People would've only bought whichever of those characters individually at that point, which means less profit in the end for Nintendo, and they do not want that, as business logic dictates, a logic they clearly followed instead of ignoring it for whatever dumb fan reason anyone here could think of. They stayed with the business logic for the sake of profiting the most, let's just accept this as the reality of how and why they located the pass sellers where they did.

SO…
Now we have the 2nd Pass (and believe me, it doesn't matter jack **** at all if this is the last pass or not, it makes no difference to Nintendo in terms of business and achieving the same goal of making the most profit out of it possible, which they won't abandon, regardless of being the last one or not ).

So… We got Steve and Sephiroth no later than midway of the pass' timeline of releases. JUST like the 1st Pass did it. Like I said before, that's thee period of time where people still consider buying the pass format. This proves their strategy of profiting the most possible has maintained even as of now.

Here is where things get interesting in the 2nd Pass tho… They give us Min Min and Pyra early on as well, instead of having them towards the end… These are 1st party characters, that don't specifically generate the most pass sales at all (at least min min certainly doesn't), instead of leaving one those to be the closer, and have another BIG character in their placement instead to keep making those Pass format sales making Nintendo some good money.

If you understood this far the way Nintendo has been handling this DLC stuff as a business, then you will probably start to realize that Pyra and Min Min happening when and where they did, is SO freaking crucial to realizing what type of character we are actually gonna get as the closer.

WHY have those non pass sales generator fighters early on instead of letting all of the big guns do their job when they ACTUALLY can be effective? And please do not give me the BS that Steve and Sephiroth were "enough" to do that. It doesn't limit to a certain amount of characters, again, Pass 1 already demonstrated that. If you are gonna have Sora, Crash, Chief, or something that huge in this pass, and you are gonna put any of them as the closer where they no longer make 30$ pass format sales from players, then you are literally LOSING money with their inclusions at this point. The ONLY smart way to utilize these characters is by having them when they CAN generate those pass sales the most, not where they won't do it AT ALL anymore.

Now that my explanation is done there, I just want to say that I DO love the idea of stuff like Sora or Chief in Smash for example, hell I've been part of those threads myself because at some point I wanted said characters myself. But when time is not business realistic for them to happen anymore, I would "suggest" to set aside big hopes for said characters. If you read my explanation above, you understand why now. I don't want any of you to give up on those characters ENTIRELY, but realize at least that they missed their window for making Nintendo the money they deserve to make by being included in this game, because this is a business in the end, whether some of us like to admit it or not. To expect them to happen NOW is the extreme opposite of logical from a business angle.

I will GLADLY take the L if I'm wrong and we do end with a HUGE character to close this DLC / game for good, because that would mean we got something epic in the end instead of something lame like a pokemon or whatever… BUT even then, I won't stop thinking that it was a huge loss of money to have someone huge this late in the pass where they don't make NEARLY as much money via the pass format anymore, because people who didn't buy the pass already will only buy this character individually.

I'm probably one of the biggest hype police haters out there, but I have to take the hypocrite stance for once in this last moment and suggest to take the business angle/perspective of this whole thing for a second, and ask yourselves how really likely is it to have someone BIG end the pass when it doesn't make Nintendo the amount of money that it would have earlier on in the 2nd Pass. They didn't pull such nonsense in the 1st pass, they won't do it with the 2nd pass either.

This is probably gonna be one of my last posts (if not the last one) on this website because, the end is near already and there really isn't much to talk about (there hasn't been for months honestly). I just want to say that it was a pleasure to ride the Ultimate hype train with those who kept an open mind for certain characters. Just remember not everyone can nor will be pleased in the end. Peace.
 
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Shroob

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Let's do something better… Let's just understand for a moment here why it's 99% not gonna end being a huge character, with the reason being completely a business one, one that Nintendo has already proven to us with the 1st Pass and has maintained to this point. Here it is:

If Nintendo has anything big to sell during DLC and there is a Pass format happening for said amount of DLCs, that format is where they gain the most profit with. Nintendo wants to profit the most possible, and to do that you need to get people interested in buying said format before they stop seeing any reason to do so, a.k.a. when they just realize they don't care about 70/80/90% of the amount of characters in the pass, and they just proceed to buy characters individually instead ( or any character at all ). Yes, it's Smash, yes, Nintendo are rich… yet that doesn't change the fact they still pursue the most profit possible from the stuff they do. They don't just bank on the popularity and success of a game and abandon getting the most profit possible from it. They don't do that, certainly not with Smash.

So…
The way they profit the most from BIG characters in the pass, is by having them during the time when people have not given up on the idea of buying said pass and proceeding to just buy whichever character individually when it's revealed.

Taking THAT in mind, and please DO keep it in mind for the rest of this message… let's see how the 1st Pass had its pass sellers located… Ah yes, none of them closed the pass… Instead, they have these pass sellers no later than midway of the amount of reveals. To what end? to profit the best way possible, which is via selling the Pass format. None of the pass sellers, Hero, Joker or Banjo, closed that 1st Pass, and it's because of THAT reason. Instead, they left Byleth, a 1st party character, to be the closer of the pass. A character that wouldn't have made the pass format sell any more than the other actual big characters (3rd party ones). Having had Joker, Hero, Banjo, or even Terry as the closer of the 1st pass, would not have generated pass format sales AT ALL at that point. People would've only bought whichever of those characters individually at that point, which means less profit in the end for Nintendo, and they do not want that, as business logic dictates, a logic they clearly followed instead of ignoring it for whatever dumb fan reason anyone here could think of. They stayed with the business logic for the sake of profiting the most, let's just accept this as the reality of how and why they located the pass sellers where they did.

SO…
Now we have the 2nd Pass (and believe me, it doesn't matter jack **** at all if this is the last pass or not, it makes no difference to Nintendo in terms of business and achieving the same goal of making the most profit out of it possible, which they won't abandon, regardless of being the last one or not ).

So… We got Steve and Sephiroth no later than midway of the pass' timeline or releases. Like I said before, the period of time where people still consider buying the pass format. Once again, this proves their strategy of profiting the most possible is maintained.

Here is where things get interesting in the 2nd Pass tho… They give us Min Min and Pyra early on as well, instead of having them towards the end… These are 1st party characters, that don't specifically generate the most pass sales at all (at least min min certainly doesn't), instead of leaving one those to be the closer, and have another BIG character in their placement instead to keep making those Pass format sales making Nintendo some good money.

If you understood this far the way Nintendo has been handling this DLC stuff as a business, then you will probably start to realize that Pyra and Min Min happening when and where they did, is SO freaking crucial to realizing what type of character we are actually gonna get as the closer.

WHY have those non pass sales generator fighters early on instead of letting all of the big guns do their job when they ACTUALLY can be effective? And please do not give me the BS that Steve and Sephiroth were "enough" to do that. It doesn't limit to a certain amount of characters, again, Pass 1 already demonstrated that. If you are gonna have Sora, Crash, Chief, or something that huge in this pass, and you are gonna put any of them as the closer where they no longer make 30$ pass format sales from players, then you are literally wasting money with their inclusions at this point. The ONLY smart way to utilize these characters is by having them when they CAN generate those pass sales the most, not where they won't do it AT ALL anymore.

Now that my explanation is done there, I just want to say that I DO love the idea of stuff like Sora or Chief in Smash for example, hell I've been part of those threads myself because at some point I wanted said characters myself. But when time is not business realistic for them to happen anymore, I would "suggest" to set aside big hopes for said characters. If you read my explanation above, you understand why now. I don't you to give up on those characters entirely, but realize at least that they missed their window for making Nintendo the money they deserve to make by being included in this game, because this is a business in the end, whether some of us like to admit it or not. To expect them to happen NOW is the extreme opposite of logical from a business angle.

I will GLADLY take the L if I'm wrong and we do end with a HUGE character to close this DLC / game for good, because that would mean we got something epic in the end instead of something lame like a pokemon or whatever… BUT even then, I won't stop thinking that it was a huge loss of money to have someone huge this late in the pass where they don't make NEARLY as much money via the pass format anymore, because people who didn't buy the pass already will only buy this character individually.

I'm probably one of the biggest hype police haters out there, but I have to take the hypocrite stance for once in this last moment and suggest to take the business angle/perspective of this whole thing for a second, and ask yourselves how really likely is it to have someone BIG end the pass when it doesn't make Nintendo the amount of money that it would have earlier on in the 2nd Pass.

This is probably gonna be one of my last posts (if not the last one) on this website because, the end is near already and there really isn't much to talk about (there hasn't been for months honestly. I just want to say that it was a pleasure to ride the Ultimate hype train with those who kept an open mind for certain characters. Just remember not everyone can nor will be pleased in the end. Peace.
I'm taking the "Sit back and wait to see what happens" camp.


I have no horse in the race, because I'm not making any predictions as to what it is. I'm just saying, let's not start telling people what they can and can't think.



It's the final character, we all know that toxicity is going to be inevitable regardless of who it is. If some people wanna have stuff blow up in their face by setting their expectations too high, well, not my problem, just like it ain't my problem if people wanna be more conservative with their predictions. This is the end, let's just, not bother and relax.
 
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Gonna go back to throwing darts to predict the final character; if it works for hamsters and monkeys buying stocks why not for Smash reveals? :4pacman:
 

Swamp Sensei

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I'm gonna make a prediction!

And this is only partly Smash related. I think, that Bandana Waddle Dee is going to start being pushed by Nintendo soon.

This isn't really a prediction for Ultimate but the next Smash game. Kirby and the Forgotten Land, as of now, seems to be focused on Waddle Dees. The level goals seem to be caged Waddle Dees that Kirby frees. And if I'm seeing correctly, the big ape boss has a cage full of Waddle Dees around his neck. The plot seems to be that the Waddle Dees have been kidnapped and taken to this "forgotten land."

Now, modern Kirby games have special unlockable modes where you can play as another character. In Super Star Ultra, it was the helpers and Meta Knight. In Return to Dreamland, it was Meta Knight, King Dedede and Bandana Waddle Dee. In Triple Deluxe, it was King Dedede. In Planet Robotbot, it was Meta Knight.

In interviews, it was revealed that in Star Allies, the new mode would have focused on Bandana Waddle Dee, but they decided to add well... everyone. But what if, for Forgotten Land, they are going to revisit that idea? And on top of that, make Waddle Dees a main driving force of the story? Bandana Waddle Dee's spear moveset should have a smooth transition to 3D. I can definitely see it working better then Meta Knight's sword/wing hybrid.

I expect Bandana Waddle Dee to show up in marketing real soon. And I expect him to be plot important in the upcoming game.
 
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