I'm on the whole "I don't think third-party DLC will happen, but I'm not ruling it out" crowd. I definitely don't think that Snake will be added as DLC if they decided they didn't want him in the game by default, but again, I'm not ruling it out.
Here's my DLC Tier List:
S (70/30).
Wolf is the only character I count as S tier personally. I think he's extremely likely, and they may have decided they wanted to rework him a bit but didn't want to do it by default so they decided to postpone it to also help promote Star Fox U. I originally would've marked Lucas here as well, but my opinion on him changed a bit.
A (60/40). Isaac, King K. Rool / Dixie Kong
I think Isaac and either K. Rool or Dixie Kong are the next most likely choices. I think its fairly likely we could get both K. Rool and Dixie Kong, but for at least one I give them an A. Isaac has always been high on my list because his lack of appearance as an AT is very suspicious, and we now know they have not cut GS all-together. I'm currently expecting him to have a trophy in Smash Wii U. I also do think GS4 is happening. Similarly, I think Diddy Kong Racing U is happening and at least Dixie will be in it, but I think its also possible K. Rool could make his return there. I think K. Rool is more likely due to popularity, importance in the DK franchise, and being easier to differentiate from the Kong characters, but its a close call with Dixie as well.
B (50/50).
,
, Inkling
I'm trying to think of someone else to add here, but I can't think of any. I considered leaving out Lucas again, but ultimately decided to add him. The reason I have Ice Climbers here is because of the chance that Sakurai is still interested in trying to finish what he started. We don't know the full story of why they were cut, just that they had problems on 3DS. For all we know, he spent maybe a few months on and off trying to get them to work, trying here and there, but couldn't quite get it. And for all we know, he was able to improve them over this time, but couldn't quite fully fix it, so they may be easy to fix and may not be.
Lucas is here because there was a reason he was cut. Whether it be because Mother is a small series that will not continue, and maybe because Mother 3 is not being planned to ever come to the west, and its just a cruel tease to have him playable but not have Mother 3 come to the West. In the off chance that Mother 3 does come to the west, Lucas may come back. I also think its possible he may come back without Mother 3, but I find that more questionable. Inkling I think is the most likely new franchise rep outside of Golden Sun. I was going to put them lower, but decided to add them to the B. tier.
C. (40/60). K. Rool AND Dixie Kong, Bandana Dee, Ray, Advance Wars Rep (Andy/Sami), Chibi-Robo
I said there was a decent chance of getting both K. Rool and Dixie. I'd rank them here. Ray's lack of an AT is also very odd, and he's got several games as well, I'd say he's got a pretty decent chance. Advance Wars is more questionable, but the franchise is very long-running. Chibi-Robo apparently has more than a couple games? I thought he was more obscure, so I never thought too highly of him. Because of this I added Chibi-Robo as well.
The most likely of all these I'd say is Bandana Dee, but I don't think he's that likely compared to other characters.
D (30/70). Krystal, Lip,
,
,
Krystal is undoubtedly the most likely here. I don't think she's going to happen, but she's probably the most likely. I'd love to see Lip, she's my fourth most wanted character for DLC at this point, I just don't see it happening. In the slim chance that a new Panel de Pon game is made, Lip is in the game AND its ported to the west WITH the fairies in it, I think Lip has an extremely high likelihood of being added. But that's the only way at this point I see it happening...
The only time promotion ever played any role, as I recall, was Roy in Melee. And he wasn't given high priority either. He was a last minute clone, hardly the same thing as making an entirely original character.
From what I have heard, Japan never liked Lucas that much to begin with. Mother 3 was not all that popular in Japan, for the most part, they thought it was too dark and unfitting for Smash Bros. I don't know about Wolf.
