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Bayonetta is a hyper offensive character with very strong specials, great combos, amazing damage output, and Zero to deaths that can be DIed but people don't practice the matchup enough, however she has major flawless that can be exploited if you have knowledge on what to look for.
The Palutena and Bayonetta matchup (IMO)
I think Palutena goes even or even beat Bayo if the Palu plays defensive or turtles. Bayo has little answer to defensive play in general so that's the way to go imo. However Palutena's moves have so much lag that Bayonetta can punish with side B even an F-smash in some cases, despite this she still has trouble getting in due to Palutena's great defense and Bayonetta's incredibly poor neutral due to her poor frame data. Witch time also isn't that big of a problem, but I'll go more into that later. Overall I think the MU is a clean 50/50.
Bayonetta's neutral
Bayo literally has three approach options in neutral; heel slide, afterburner kick (downward of course), and Nair (to an extent). Bayo is hyper offensive so she's usually going to be the one approaching. Bayonetta's neutral is very poor and predictable due to her normals either having end lag or high startup.
Dealing with heel slide
heel slide hit 1 active frame 15-34, heel slide hit 2 54-59
Heel slide believe it or not is very punishable with a full 39 frames of vulnerability if hit 1 is shielded it's pretty easy to punish. Grab, dash grab, pivot grab, f-smash, down smash, jab, reflect (lol), dash attack, and counter (never use counter) are all possible during the 39 frame window after shield drop. If you do get hit by heel slide DO NOT AIR DODGE, air dodging early expecting the second hit will get you no where. Instead DI upwards to avoid the second hit and jump away to avoid the potential witch twitch.
Dealing with Witch twist
active frame 4, can only be SDIed from 8-11
Bayonetta's up B is way too fast to react to, however it's pretty easy to know when she's going to use it. The it's most commonly used after a whiffed punish, out of shield, after a whffed heel slide, or as a combo breaker. If you do not get the side B punish or you're not confident enough to punish it you can just stay in shield since it's your best option or spot dodge after the second hit of heel slide. Also, do not try to spike her from above when she's using this move, the hitbox is stupid. Another great strategy is to drop your shield after the second hit and immediately shield again to bait out witch twist which will be easy to punish from below.
Dealing with B#&$! Time
Now witch time is by far Bayonetta's Most threatening move, BUT it has several weaknesses that players rarely notice. The first flaw of the move is that it stales hard! So baiting the move with empty jumps is a good strategy. It also doesn't get rid of active hitboxes which is a flaw in itself. If your jab gets witch timed it's a good idea to use rapid jab because it'll clank with her smashes. Since Bayonetta usually use witch time on landing to reduce landing lag so dash attack is a safe punish for landings because even if you get witch timed you'll be unpunishable because of the invincibility frames, you can also use rapid jab to catch land because Bayonetta will fall into it even after witch timing. In the end using confirmed combos is the only way to be 100% safe so grab combos are highly beneficial in this MU. I should note that witch time is also a combo breaker so using strings that aren't confirms is very risky
PUNISH THE 30+ FRAMES OF LANDING LAG!
I can't stress enough, a little part of me dies every time she uses two side I think a we should abuse Bayonetta's HORRID landing lag after using her specials meaning using an up B to retreat to a platform leaves a pretty big window for Nair or up air. I don't need to put a list of moves you can punish her lag with, LITERALLY all of Palutena's moves can punish the landing lag after two after burner kicks.
Dealing with afterburner kick
Learn to DI correctly, this is mainly dependent on the Bayonetta but DI up and in the direction she's going to avoid the second kick. start SDIng before a potential witch twist comes out and you'll be fine. Also watch out for this at the ledge since it is hard to edge guard against because of how fast it is, it's best to just shield and punish or bair her out of the air.
Couldn't agree with all your points more, very well written and hopefully this will help people struggling with the match-up .
Only thing I may add is going for Nairs if you can read your opponents jump patterns (when they're going for abk or Nairs.)
Another thing you can abuse is bayonnetas recovery, getting rid of her jump using AR if the option is available and going for counter if they try abking into you (actually works pretty decently.)
Also playing on stages with the tri-platform layout can protect you from her aerial approaches to an extent allowing you to be a bit more aggressive with fairs or bairs. They also give you more movement options with ledge cancels and more combo potential if you manage to stuff out one of her aerial approaches using Nair.
Feel like I'm rambling a bit, anyway good post I appreciate the effort put in.
Well... I'm sure you know how I feel about matchup stuff. That said,
All I can really offer is to not dash attack, and fight from a nice distance. B-air's pretty useful against anything Bayonetta could hope to throw out. The match largely depends on the Bayo player, and like Sonic you should play around her with "back off!" moves, not so much challenging her as she can catch an unwary Palu in a combo quite quickly.
I tend to have more of a problem with Mexican Standoff Fox. Keep up the good work though
Here's one useful tip that I found out last night. I'm gonna lab this more tonight.
Instead of shielding all the time, think about mixing it up between shield and challenging with Utilt. Every time I put out Utilt as an anti-air it does one of two things; it either beats out the kick and Bayo gets sucked into the vortex or it trades with the kick. It's not the most consistent option because of the trade, but if a Bayo is thirsty for the DABK it's a good method to discourage the approach and possibly take the stock if the percentages are right.
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