BluePikmin11
Akko is my dear daughter!
Ever since Nintendo announced Smash Switch in the latest direct, I have researching for more than two months in my free time, rereading Sakurai interviews, connecting several matters of Nintendo with Smash, considering potential candidates via RTC, and getting feedback from several reliable Smash speculators and Smashboards users here, I have come up with this prediction roster full of in-depth analyses on every newcomer that I personally feel has a real chance of getting in Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo Switch. You will finally know why I have made such "odd" choices for predictions.
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-79 Characters total.
-Veterans Wolf, Snake, and Ice Climbers return.
-18 newcomers total.
Other Notes:
-I am predicting a Hanafuda character in general, not specifically Daitouryou.
-I am predicting Lycanroc in general, not any specific form of Lycanroc.
Before beginning, what is important to note is that Sakurai most likely started this project and began roster planning in early 2016 based on the Smash Switch timeline noting Sakurai's period of taking a break on 1/6/2016 to casually confirming working on a project on November 2016 based on the Smash Switch timeline by Source Gaming. With Sakurai confirming that he is working on Smash Switch, it is most likely to assume that the project Sakurai had been planning on in 1/6/2016 was Smash Switch. I personally believe that he will apply the same relevance logic in Smash 4 with Smash Switch, which is basically this:
http://sourcegaming.info/2015/12/13/sakurai-fe25/
"Interviewer: In Smash for 3DS/ Wii U, there are far more Fire Emblem characters on the roster than in previous games. How did you go about the selection process for these characters? Sakurai: It really depends on the situation.
For example, Roy and Robin were included for completely different reasons. It also depends on luck, of course. Industry trends around the time when development begins is a pretty big factor. I started development on Smash for 3DS/ Wii U right after I’d wrapped up Kid Icarus: Uprising, and Fire Emblem Awakening was released one month after Uprising. So what’s popular around the time when I begin designing the game is important. Characters are almost never added after I’ve completed the project plan for Smash."
With Sakurai putting an important emphasis on the aspect of considering characters from around the time, he will most likely choose characters based on games that released from 2015 to 2016 for Smash Switch again. This is why I chose characters like Elma and Lycanroc since their games were released around the time the project plan was set in motion.
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I believe that Elma was highly considered as the promotional candidate for Smash 4 DLC. She already held great gameplay potential and her game came out around the time Sakurai was considering making a character from an already represented franchise that was getting a game around 2015. I feel it was a competition between Corrin and Elma, but with Corrin edging the win due to the gameplay potential and Sakurai likely wanting to push his favorite series more.
That said, I believe that Sakurai played Xenoblade X in 2015 around the time when Smash DLC was being developed and likely loved the gameplay/world building (Sakurai plays a lot of games during his free time and often delves into great gameplay/game design in Famitsu columns, even during Smash Switch development. I would like to note XC2 and Stardew Valley as recent examples). His potential love for the game could have influenced Sakurai to consider Elma for the next Smash’s project plan in 2016.
Around Smash Switch’s project plan, Sakurai likely would have put a placeholder for Elma. But, here is the very interesting situation, Sakurai would have likely negotiated with Monolith Soft for Elma, could have faced possible conflict, with Monolith noting Sakurai that they were developing a Xenoblade sequel for the Nintendo NX, where Sakurai could have been shown very early gameplay concepts of Rex and Blades. With Sakurai possibly having this early information, there could be a wall to Elma’s inclusion that could favor Rex more for the 2nd Xenoblade newcomer spot due to the convenient situation being similar to Greninja in Smash 4.
But, it is quite possible that both could get in due to their high gameplay potential. Elma has Rex as a potential obstacle, but we could see a situation where Sakurai adds both characters, regardless of potential overrepresentation that might be a major concern. Elma in particular is very unique in that she utilizes an interchangeable weapon that can switching from dual guns to dual swords. Her weapons can be changed via special to give her a different set of standard ground/aerial attacks. The attacks for dual guns have weaker knock-back and melee range, but has long range projectiles. The dual swords cannot hit as far as dual guns, but they deal bigger knock-back and damage with decent melee range.
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The class Elma belongs to is of the Fullmetal Jaguar class, which excels in evasion/accuracy and has set of skills special to her such as Shadowstrike and Ghostwalker. All of these options for a move-set would make her play-style very distinct, as she would not only be a quick user akin to a fighter like Sheik, but also have a plethora of melee/range options at her disposal to keep her opponents guessing on what play-style she will be utilizing next. In my opinion, this unique play-style that remains true to Xenoblade X would be enticing enough for Sakurai to implement her in Smash.
Elma is in a very unique circumstance for Smash Switch, but I believe Elma will ultimately win out alongside Rex, with Sakurai having gameplay potential as one of the most important factors for Smash. Xenoblade is in a fortunate and lucky position, but whether Sakurai lines up all of the planets to create a Xenoblade newcomer apocalypse is ultimately up to him. The universe could blow up, or Sakurai could moderate the franchise's new character representation to one for other opportunities.
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Choosing Geno as a prediction was not an easy decision. I grew up playing Super Mario RPG on the Wii Virtual Console loving every second of the experience. I thought Geno was a very cool character back then and wanted him in Smash 4. That never happened. But, I was super astonished when Geno had his own Mii costume for Smash 4 DLC. I looked into the interview of Sakurai mentioning the story behind the Mii costume with him stating:
"Geno:
—What led you to decide to make a Geno costume after all this time?
Sakurai: To tell the truth, it’s because I wanted Geno to be a playable character. He has a gun for a hand, and I think he fits in really well with Smash. During Brawl, I thought it would be great if I could add him, but in the end it didn’t become a reality."
I interpreted that comment as Square Enix being stingy about their properties. I thought he was not included because he was just a character from a one-off SNES game and never thought much about it since, slowly drifting away my hope for the puppet as time went on, never seriously considering him when it came to Smash Switch newcomer speculation. But, then I thought about critically. I thought about Vergeben's rumor of Simon Belmont and Ridley being in Smash as his info quickly became more legitimate at E3. What these two choices hold in common was that they were generally perceived as impossible due to many reasons such as Konami being a bad company, the harsh treatment of Kojima, and Sakurai stating two times in Brawl/Smash 4 that Ridley would be impossible.
Thinking hypothetically, if Sakurai went that far to implement these characters in Smash Switch, despite the very difficult obstacles, I personally believe Sakurai would go beyond the line and negotiate Geno from Square Enix yet again. What I theorize about Smash 4 DLC was that the production for it had a lower budget. The evidence pointing to this is Sakurai stating that they had a smaller team working on the DLC, noting that there were a smaller selection of songs to choose from (pointing out the Midgar FF7 stage having only two non-remixed songs), and Sakurai choosing to add the "most realizable and negotiable character" (Bayonetta) when it came to the Smash 4 ballot. I feel these budget constraints prevented Sakurai from negotiating beyond Cloud Strife for Smash 4 DLC, with the only affordable option left being to add Geno as a Mii costume.
Normally, I would say that Geno being a one-shot character and Square Enix being strict would damage his chance to be in Smash. But, I do not believe this to be an actual problem for Sakurai. He wanted Geno badly back in Brawl and Smash 4 because of his move-set potential, setting aside the fact that his appearance was one-time, being willing enough to get Geno as one of the only notable Mii costumes for Smash 4 DLC done for the fans. Considering that SMRPG was one of Square's biggest successes in history (with SMRPG selling as massively as the huge Tomb Raider/Final Fantasy games), I feel the company would be fine with the idea of SMRPG being represented in Smash. The belief that Square Enix would strike against the idea of Geno being playable is a huge overstatement.
Square would be willing to make business to make Geno in Smash a reality, if the budget for negotiating characters for Smash Bros. allows it. With the opportunity being possible thanks to Smash Switch likely being a higher budget game, this would finally have Sakurai realize Geno for Smash Switch. The 13 year-long journey of Sakurai wanting Geno as a playable fighter would close in pure satisfaction for him and the immense number of hardcore Geno supporters. I am banking that he will add Geno again, making a dream finally come true.
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With more insiders and Vergeben noting the inclusion of Ridley in Smash, I figure that I would analyze his chances again, very briefly. For Ridley, I think most of us already know that his massive fan-demand, importance to the Metroid franchise, and moveset potential are the major positives towards his inclusion. The only thing that I can discuss to a small degree of speculation is how Sakurai figured out a way to implement Ridley. Honestly I have no way of knowing the solution. I have already seen all of the angles against and favoring Ridley’s implementation in Smash, that coming up with an answer to that would be impossible without Sakurai stating the specifics in terms of gameplay via interview when his big reveal comes potentially at E3, and I am not that heavy in knowledge in game design to truly understand how Ridley could work as a balanced playable character. All I know now, based on the Vergeben leak, it is that Sakurai found a solution.
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For the longest time since the beginning of Smash Switch speculation, I have been skeptical of Bandanna Dee’s chances. But, after thinking about Dee critically from a different perspective, I finally see why fans have been confident with Bandanna Dee. Before looking into positives, we need to look at the history of new Kirby additions with earlier Smash games. For King Dedede, he was planned to be included in Smash 64, but was cut during development. For Meta-knight, his inclusion was considered in Melee, but was held off because he wanted put other Nintendo titles in the spotlight before his own franchise, despite the character being extremely popular in Japan. Sakurai’s hesitance on more Kirby newcomers remained until Brawl, where he finally added King Dedede and Meta-knight.
I feel Sakurai’s hesitance on his characters was the main reason Bandanna Dee was excluded from Smash 4’s roster. This was very understandable, given that Dee’s playable debut in Kirby: Return to Dreamland might have been seen as too pre-mature, lacking the substantial amount of importance needed to be considered a central Kirby character. But now, Bandanna Dee has been increasing in importance, with his playable role in Kirby: Rainbow Curse and a number of smaller roles in Triple Deluxe, Planet Robobot, and Battle Royale. With HAL Laboratory paying ample attention to the Kirby fanbase and giving Dee greater presence and marketing, there is a real chance that they could contact Sakurai while he works on Smash Switch’s project planning phase to heavily push for a playable Bandanna Dee.
With Bandanna Dee’s increasing importance, it resulted with an increasing Dee fanbase, which likely caused a high surge of votes for the character with the Smash 4 ballot. These two factors could finally lead Sakurai to seriously consider Bandanna Dee and let go of his Kirby character hesitance/modesty. Gameplay potential would not be a notable problem, as Dee’s utilization of spears alone is minimally distinct enough from the current Smash cast for Sakurai to find easy move-set inspiration. It could be argued that just utilizing spears lacks substance, but Sakurai can find inspiration in the minimum a character offers, as he only needs to look at one distinct, on-the-surface trait to find the potential like Little Mac’s single, unique trait of being a boxer and Ryu’s single, unique trait of utilizing fighting game mechanics for Smash gameplay.
There is a chance that Sakurai’s modesty on Kirby character representation could still remain that excludes Dee from the roster, but at this point, that has a small chance of happening now with the positives of his inclusion the spear-wielder currently has. I am banking Sakurai letting go of his modesty, finally making Bandanna Dee a playable character after making sure of his massive popularity in the Kirby franchise and his likely high number of votes with the Smash 4 Ballot. Dee has almost nothing preventing his inclusion now.
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Rhythm Heaven is among one of the biggest Nintendo franchises in Japan. Ever since the franchise's late debut on the Gameboy Advance's life cycle in 2006, the franchise has gained a large, Japanese fanbase. It continued to grow bigger with the debut of the sequel Rhythm Heaven on the Nintendo DS in 2008. Due to the success of the first game in Japan, the sequel managed to receive a global localization. The DS iteration managed to sell over 3 million units total, which marked the peak of the franchise. Rhythm Heaven continued to perform greatly with the Wii sequel (Rhythm Heaven Fever) and the 3DS sequel (Rhythm Heaven: Megamix). The cult fanbase for Rhythm Heaven outside of Japan grew greatly around the time of Fever, spawning hundreds of fan-remixes and memes on YouTube thanks to the mini-game of Ringside. The dedication of Rhythm Heaven fan-content still happens to this day. With all of the fan-content and Japan success, you would think a Rhythm Heaven character would get in Smash by now. Well, not exactly, but there is a ray of hope that a RH character was planned way back in Smash 4.
Before E3 2014 came, there was a Gematsu leak that would leak a second batch of newcomers for the roster. One of these choices were the Chorus Kids. Since the leak, there have been many debates and controversy on the inclusion of Chorus Kids. The negative reception soon spread like wildfire once they were not present in Smash 4's base game and DLC selection. With such reception, the Smash fanbase soon grew silent on the possibility of Chorus Kids, even in Smash Switch speculation to this day. But, ever since that leak came, there has been a growing amount of supporters for multiple Rhythm Heaven characters in general. Fan-content would soon multiply thereafter. Thanks to the leak, a bigger Rhythm Heaven fanbase outside of Japan soon sprouted. With Smash Switch nearby, now would be the best time to include a Rhythm Heaven character.
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I am of the specific camp that believes the Gematsu Leak was the original roster draft for Smash 4 before changes got made due to 3DS limitations or moveset potential matters (Robin chosen over Chrom for example). I also believe that due to 3DS limitations, it kept ‘duo’ characters like Chorus Kids and Ice Climbers from getting in the game. With the hidden files of a Rhythm Heaven symbol and Sneaky Spirit in Smash Run, it all points to Chorus Kids’ potential inclusion in Smash.
Sakurai already sees merit in Rhythm Heaven getting a character. He already saw the potential of utilizing these specific characters, likely utilizing moves inspired by several rhythm mini-games with a play-style that involves rhythmic timing. The main question is mostly if technical difficulties will become an issue again. I doubt it will this time. I also highly doubt that any other character from RH would get in. Because if there were going to be a RH character, Sakurai would have chosen another candidate like Karate Man to be in Smash 4 by now. The lack of a RH character in Smash 4’s base game and DLC selection suggests to me that Sakurai wants to keep the character idea of Chorus Kids and try to make them work in the Switch version of Smash this time around. Sakurai likely had a full move-set concept of the Chorus Kids way back in Smash 4, based on this article here:
Nintendo Dream: When not you are not developing and there is a new title or character released, you are not thinking about “How about that one in the next Smash Bros?”, right?
Masahiro Sakurai: Absolutely not! I’m always thinking that doing Smash Bros. again will be impossible. Impossible, impossible…is what I always think, but I ended up making it again (laughs). But once I decide to do it, I’m very fast about creating moves and such. For example Greninja, even before his name was decided I received several illustrations. I took them home in the evening and around midnight I had already done all his actions, normal moves, special moves and pose-pictures and sent them around asking “What do you think?”.
Nintendo Dream: That’s incredible speed! By the way, when deciding on which characters to use, are you looking into unreleased new games?
Masahiro Sakurai: At the very beginning I did that. This time our project-proposal is dated May 2012, at that time all characters were decided already. Then as production moves on we will say “We won’t put that character in” and cut out low-priority-characters.
Assuming he made concepts for move-sets for every Smash 4 newcomer planned, I feel it is EXTREMELY likely that the Chorus Kids concept will be revisited to be implemented for Smash Switch (Basing it on the Gematsu leak being true). I personally think a Rhythm Heaven character is an inevitability, with Chorus Kids as the most likely candidate chosen to represent RH as a whole. With Rhythm Heaven’s staggering popularity/impact/sales during the DS era, the mini-games that gained a huge amount of parodies in meme culture, their massive gameplay potential with incorporating rhythm mini-games into a cohesive move-set, and the 2016 release of Rhythm Heaven Megamix that would tie in well for a promotion while the 3DS remains highly marketed by Nintendo, now would be BEST time to include them.
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We have already seen Nintendo and Sakurai dedicating some love to the Famicom game with Nintendo Land's mini-game, 3DS Virtual Console release, Takamaru's AT role and Mii costumes in Smash 4. I feel what happened back in Smash 4's early planning in 2012, in terms of the newcomer selection, was one retro and one historical retro surprise representative being planned from the very start. Duck Hunt Dog was the first selected to be Smash 4's 'surprise' character according to the Smash 4 slideshow proposal. Takamaru, was not in specific competition of that category. I feel, Takamaru was competing against Little Mac for the only standard retro newcomer spot.
Although both had strong reasons to get into Smash and while Takamaru provided distinctness with him being a samurai loaded with a plethora of Japanese weapons, I feel Little Mac was chosen over him because of boxer's worldwide appeal, especially noting the retro revival game that was Punch Out!! Wii that came out in 2009. Being the only category Takamaru likely had a chance to be chosen in, it is very easy to understand why Takamaru could not get in Smash 4 despite merits. Getting in as DLC was not an option for Takamaru either, as I feel it was likely the retro category was hardly considered for the DLC selection. Now here is the interesting part.
Assuming that development started around in 2016 when Sakurai confirmed that he is working on the next project (likely being Smash Bros. Switch), there were no notable retro revival games from classic franchises from Nintendo that came during the timespan of Smash 4 and now. Given that selection of newcomers were likely selected from the beginning, Sakurai will have likely chosen the next standard retro candidate the same way as he did in Melee and Brawl (With Pit and Ice Climbers coming to mind). With no retro revivals to compete with, given everything I explained here, with Smash 4 content and pushes of the Murasame game from Nintendo, and one spot likely being reserved for one retro character again like Mac, with everything considered, it all lines up for Takamaru to be the next contender.
Sakurai had already noted the game's historical relationship with Zelda, Metroid, and Kid Icarus as an important point of Takamaru back in the Pic of the Day. I feel that status gives him the edge of consideration also. The only thing that would stand in the away for competition is if there were a major retro revival for a classic franchise other than Murasame Castle that Nintendo wants to promote badly, assuming the game comes out in 2018 in time for promotion. But I feel that is very unlikely at this point in time.
I would be very surprised if anyone else got chosen other than Takamaru, unless in the case that Sakurai reconsiders Balloon Fighter and puts him in competition of Takamaru in honor of Iwata. Those are the only two candidates I can see Sakurai reconsidering for top retro candidates again. That and obscure status potentially being very large obstacles of Sakurai adding Takamaru, those are his only problems I can see. But, I can see Sakurai getting past that pretty easily and taking the risk to make the samurai finally playable in Smash.
Takamaru, to me, is literally in the very front of the line to get in Smash now.
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With Vergeben’s Simon Belmont/Ridley leak on Gamefaqs having notable credibility, I figured that I would analyze Simon again. What is the main reason Sakurai wanted to add a Konami character in Smash Switch, despite the company’s incredibly awful treatment to Kojima during their restructure? I can only think of five possible reasons, one of them being personal impact. Sakurai has personal history with Castlevania since the vert first game on the NES, based on the statement he gave in the Sakurai x Nomura interview:
“For me personally, it was the year 1986, when games like The Legend of Zelda and Castlevania were released, and I experienced physically interactive games. They had a big impact on me.”
I feel that such personal impact with this iconic franchise would tempt him to consider a Castlevania character. Second, Simon's potentially massive ballot popularity. I have seen Simon Belmont constantly requested and campaigned in online forums since the ballot creation. Simon’s amount of votes could have convinced Sakurai enough at least consider the idea thoroughly. Third, the move-set potential Simon offers. Simon has a distinct weapon not primarily used by other Smash characters, which would be his whip. That and his assortment of different weapons like the throwing axe, holy water, and boomerang could have tempted Sakurai to make him playable.
Fourth, pure will. I think there would be no way Konami characters would be a consideration to Sakurai without getting past the Konami Kojima treatment. I feel two things would play into this. One, the strong likelihood that Kojima would want Snake back in Smash. Even back in Smash 4, he still wanted Snake to be in the game despite not being contacted by Sakurai to do negotiations. Metal Gear Solid is still Kojima’s baby, and I cannot imagine an event where Kojima would not want it to happen even in the hard circumstances. If Sakurai contacted him primarily for permission, Kojima would still say yes and possibly help Sakurai with his anger with Konami.
Fifth and most importantly, Sakurai wanting to have Smash be the #1 fighting game roster ever. Sakurai has managed to create an unbelievable roster for Smash 4 thanks to the third-party additions like Sonic, Megaman, Pac-Man, Ryu, Cloud, all big gaming icons in a single fighting game. With Smash 4 in specific, he wanted the 3DS/Wii U installment to be the best character game in the world. If he wanted to fill in the remaining bases for big third-parties like he stated in a Nintendo Dream interview, then he will have to get past Konami’s treatment and try to negotiate one of Konami’s big icons to truly make Smash the number one character game in the world.
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In my perspective, with Konami’s restructuring in 2016 when the Smash Switch project plan was created, they would still be open and fair with the negotiation of Simon Belmont. Around this time, they previously brought a majority of their old library via Wii U eShop consistently throughout the years when other third-parties couldn’t, allowed their titles to be part of the NES Mini lineup, and had a Castlevania anime in production in 2016. (If Vergeben’s information is anything to go by.) I personally think in 2016, Konami was free and available to make profitable business deals with Nintendo and Sakurai. All of these factors create an small opening in which Simon Belmont’s inclusion in Smash Bros. is very possible. This is just my theory though to explain how an addition like Simon came to be.
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Yes, I am adding Steve now because of Vergeben stating that Minecraft would get representation in some capacity. It is possible that this ends up being one of Verge’s unreliable sources, but honestly, I added this mostly to fill in the newcomer selection. After I narrowed down the potential newcomers and found their chances to be in Smash to be less plausible than I expected, something did not feel right. I had 14 unique newcomers total in my predictions, but it was off-putting. Sakurai has at least added 15 unique newcomers for Brawl & Smash 4. With me having trouble who to choose, Verge’s information on Minecraft representation came out on time for me to fill in the gap I so desired. With Steve potentially being a character in Smash Switch thanks to Vergeben, it had me wondering how did a bizarre decision from Sakurai happen? I will look over that matter with this analysis.
With Minecraft, it has been a massive success. Recently, it was announced that the game had sold over 144 million copies total, making the game the second best selling video game of all time. That is a massive accomplishment, especially when considering Minecraft had surpassed sales for even Nintendo’s best selling games like Super Mario Bros/Wii Sports. With several kids going crazy over Minecraft, it would not surprise me at all if Steve was an insanely voted third-party, being enough in numbers to catch Sakurai’s attention for consideration.
Like with Sora & Disney, it does seem to most people that negotiating a third party with a rival video-game company like Microsoft would be impossible. But that is not the case here. While Microsoft did acquire the rights, the earlier released PS3 version of Minecraft in 2013 was not taken down. In fact, right after the announcement, versions for the PS Vita/PS4 were released right after. With Microsoft being open to the idea of Minecraft being multi-platform, this eventually lead to the Wii U version of the game that came out on December 17th, 2015. This is when the relationship of Mojang/Nintendo had begun to sprout.
The release date came before the roster project plan began for Smash Switch in 2016, which gives ample enough time and a notable opening for Sakurai to take the opportunity to negotiate Steve for Smash. Since Mojang does not have its own division, Microsoft’s Japanese division in Tokyo would be the next nearby place to handle a huge deal. So… why would Sakurai willingly choose Steve for this Smash? Like with Sora, the element of surprise would play a massive, big factor. Not only that, the move-set potential Steve has with a play-style based on Minecraft’s game design of surviving with crafted tools/blocks might have served as an inspiration for Sakurai to add him.
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On top of that factor, Minecraft’s popularity in Japan is massive, going as far as famous Japanese YouTubers regularly playing it for subscribers and Minecraft selling greatly on Playstation Vita and Wii U. With the game having a notable Japanese following, unlike many other Western third-party franchises, Steve is one choice Sakurai would not have to worry about, since Minecraft has world-worldwide appeal, with Steve sharing an instant recognizability that a majority of younger gamers will instantly recognize to buy Smash Switch for.
The only “difficult” matter would be translating Steve into Smash smoothly. Minecraft is known to have basic and stiff animations in gameplay. Implementing this truly in Smash might make Steve stand out too much and look awkward on the surface for most players. Would it be better to have Steve smoothly animated? Would it be better to make Steve move truly like in-game? Whichever solution Sakurai will use, I feel that he would not mind either option because whether he chooses stiff or smooth animation, it would still make Steve a distinct addition in Smash. It would be weird seeing Steve with new animations, but I see it as something Sakurai will conclude as something Smash players will quickly get used to.
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With all of the pros towards adding a Minecraft character in Smash, it would not surprise me now if these were the reasons why Steve was chosen to be a playable fighter. Researching Steve extensively, I have quickly warmed up to the idea of him being playable, especially when imagining the fun moments that could come from his crafting stage-control play-style. I really hope Vergeben’s source on Minecraft representation in Smash Bros is real. Having Steve alongside music, stages, and a character would be super awesome!
*Geno analysis coming soon.
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On No Smash 4 Veteran Cuts
I feel Sakurai has the skills to add ALL veterans from Smash 4 for Smash Switch. Sakurai really hates cuts. Even when "characters have no future" played a factor into Lucas and Wolf's exclusion in Smash 4's base roster, the cuts he made were as minimal as possible, excluding characters heavily based on transformation and the ones based on technical limitations while keeping MOST of the unique characters. With the experience Sakurai has now and the 3DS limitations no longer being an issue, there is the real possibility that everyone from Smash 4 could return.
On Extra Characters Wolf, Dixie Kong, and Octolings
I see Smash Switch paralleling Smash 4 and Brawl in a sense with one veteran and two new extra clones as the last characters developed. Only this time, this is not all three clones being alt. to character situations like in Smash 4. Wolf and Dixie Kong are planned semi-clones developed if extra time allows like in Brawl, while Octolings would be the only alternate costume to character situation created mid-way in development. Wolf, Dixie Kong, and Octolings are extra characters that could be made if development time allows it.
Honorable Mentions:
1. Captain Toad- For being probably one of the most probable Mario candidates. However due to his series not being of the same success as Mario spinoffs like WarioWare and Yoshi's Island I do not think he will make the cut. For an in-depth analysis about my opinion on his chances, look here.
2. Doom Guy- For his game being acknowledged by Sakurai as an important milestone in FPS history. Could possibly negotiate with Bethesda for adding Doom Guy due to the company's recent partnership with Nintendo for the NX back in 2016, but I doubt will happen. Doom Guy feels like a choice that Sakurai would think about more when the base game roster is done. Doom Guy was hardly a popular choice when the Smash 4 ballot took place, and the port was the main reason the suggestions for Doom Guy came in the first place. In that respect, I see Doom Guy's chances to be in the base roster being very low.
3. Crash Bandicoot- Somewhat like Doom Guy's situation, although he likely had big demand when the ballot was active, so he could possibly been seriously considered. I do not see Western third-parties becoming a thing Sakurai will aim for until DLC comes. I personally doubt his addition for the base game, and I think it is more likely he could be chosen as DLC while his demand was notably higher due to the Crash Trilogy Switch announcement.
4. Balloon Fighter- A choice that could happen in note of Iwata, but I see Takamaru edging him out due to the many positives I explained in Takamaru's analysis. Could potentially just get stage representation and be a part of Villager's recovery again.
5. Heihachi- Heihachi was one of the very few Namco Bandai characters that got seriously considered for Smash 4, but there was one big issue that Sakurai stated back in July 3rd 2014 that would stop him from being playable:
Sakurai: There were none. We basically thought of all the characters at the start of development. We decided on characters we knew we could make. However, there were a few in consideration, such as Heihachi from “Tekken.”
Interviewer: Heihachi!
Sakurai: That’s right. However, implementing Heihachi’s movement in Smash would be difficult…
But with Sakurai having the experience to develop/integrate a fighting game character into Smash gameplay with Ryu getting in, I feel Sakurai will likely re-consider Heihachi again. It is likely is because of recent leaks showing that Namco Bandai is developing Smash Switch. Sakurai’s experience with Ryu could lead him to comfortably transition into finally making Heihachi playable.
However, it is still a huge gamble whether or not such implementation/planning of Heihachi in Smash gameplay will be successful. The implementation of four buttons for each limb could prove to be a complicated matter far more difficult to faithfully and naturally implement than setting Ryu's light and heavy attacks right using light button tapping for light attacks/longer button tapping for heavy attacks. If he cannot find a solution to faithfully put Tekken mechanics for Heihachi in Smash in the same way as Street Fighter for Ryu during the roster planning phases, he will likely be rejected again. The possibility of him being regularly implemented and not implement the four button mechanic is very low.
Heihachi has the pros of having game history with the Tekken franchise being a long-running success, his potential as a fighter with utilizing 3D space for a stand-out play-style, and Namco Bandai likely favoring his addition. He would not need fan-demand to be considered and is mostly a special case like Pac-Man, but whether or not Sakurai is willing to implement him and Tekken mechanics into Smash gameplay will be the ultimate deciding factor to making him a playable character. I am not banking on that happening.
6. Decidueye- See analysis for Lycanroc.
7. Celica- For being a possible newcomer Sakurai could develop out of his love for Fire Emblem. Celica is in a good position to be considered by Sakurai for Smash Switch, given the time span of Echoes' release date and Smash Switch's possible planning and development. But, I feel the biggest problem with Celica is her lack of unique traits.
Among all of the Fire Emblem characters in Smash, Robin already has the unique theme of magic and swords, as stated in the project proposal in Smash 4. Then there is the problem with FE overrepresentation. Sakurai has stated before in Corrin's inclusion that he was worried about adding too many characters from the franchise, and it was only because of developmental staff assurance that Sakurai was convinced Corrin would make for an interesting fighter. Sakurai will likely take this stance again when considering an FE character like Celica and note the theme similarities of her and Robin.
But, those similarities could put Celica in a position where Sakurai can add her as a lower priority planned semi-clone in the 2016 project plan. She would be a semi-clone in the sense of Wolf, with the different swordplay and the magic available to use like Thunder, Fire, and Seraphim. But ultimately, I think Sakurai will just prioritize the FE Smash 4 line-up and do nothing more.
8. Rayman- For being the most likely Western third-party due to Ubisoft's relationship with Nintendo and ballot popularity, but I feel Rayman will be passed of due to the franchise's lack of notable popularity in Japan. I feel any Western third-party Sakurai will include will be ones that have worldwide popularity, minus a few exceptions like Doom Guy that took the Western game industry by storm. And Rayman's popularity in Japan is minimal, which could affect Sakurai's POV on the character.
9. Mii Mage Class- The one reason I include Mii Mage is that it is the only character archetype to which Smash fans have notably requested to fill in all of the basic fighting archetypes for Mii Fighters to utilize. However, I feel the idea of Mii Mage was thought of long ago way back in Smash 4. Gameplay wise:
-Brawler has a hand to hand/close quarter playstyle.
-Sword fighter has a swordplay/midrange playstyle.
-Gunner has a projectile zoning/long range playstyle.
With all of them fulfilling the three basic play-styles, Sakurai might not find the need to add another Mii class in future Smash games to come. This would be the case, especially when some of Mii Gunner's moves take inspiration from magic users like Robin, Ness, and Zelda With him being possibly content, I think he would rather move on from Miis and prioritize on developing the unique newcomers planned for this game than making something for the sake of filling in a missing archetype.
10. Spring Man- I will be honest with you. I went back and forth on this choice multiple times. I thought that an ARMS character’s best scenario of getting in the game is DLC, but then I went back to him possibly being base game. With ARMs being a new IP from last year, Sakurai would most likely wait until the IP has a notable degree of success before being added in Smash Switch. But, considering the game was announced to be a huge hit on July 2017, there is a chance that Sakurai would look at that news and be comfortable with adding Spring Man, allowing an ARMs character to be in the base game in the middle of Smash Switch’s development to help keep ARMs promotion coming (Noting Nintendo’s competitive support for ARMS as a relevant example). However, I do think this would put Spring Man as a lower priority unique newcomer, in the same sense as Bowser Jr., who was nearly cut from Smash 4’s roster due to time constraints being an obstacle.
This scenario would be a similar situation to Sonic back in Brawl. However, Sonic was added late for very different reasons like immensely high popularity that would call for an urgent development schedule change. Would Spring Man be worth the cost of more development time to get him in the base roster? Or would an ARMS character be something that is better saved as a DLC addition? Perhaps Sakurai’s flexibility and skills for making Smash games will allow a “New IP getting its own character in the middle of development” case to happen. Sakurai could be convinced by Spring Man's potential as see that as one of the primary reasons to add him late in the game. These kinds of additions can happen even if the chances are rare, based on this statement here:
Sakurai: It really depends on the situation. For example, Roy and Robin were included for completely different reasons. It also depends on luck, of course. Industry trends around the time when development begins is a pretty big factor. I started development on Smash for 3DS/ Wii U right after I’d wrapped up Kid Icarus: Uprising, and Fire Emblem Awakening was released one month after Uprising. So what’s popular around the time when I begin designing the game is important. Characters are almost never added after I’ve completed the project plan for Smash.
This statement gives a very small opening, but it gives enough room for Spring Man to be added. Otherwise, Spring Man can still be added as DLC. Spring Man will be in Smash Switch’s roster, it is just a matter of when and if we get Smash Switch DLC at all. In this case, I am banking on Sakurai not having enough development time to implement Spring Man in time for the base roster.
11. Erdrick- For Dragon Quest being one of the biggest Square Enix franchises in Japan, with Dragon Quest III being one of the most influential RPGs. He could possibly be chosen by Sakurai in his own will via special case scenario just like Ryu. Though, as I stated before, I do feel 3rd parties will be heavily based on ballot popularity, and I cannot imagine Japan heavily voting on a Dragon Quest character in the ballot for Sakurai to consider the idea. Dragon Quest does have as much worldwide popularity for me to see Sakurai consider Erdrick more seriously.
12. Dr. Kawashima- I have thought long and hard about this choice. He has remained in my prediction rosters until now. Even though I think real life issues are no longer an issue, I do not believe he will be in and I accepted that Sakurai will likely not look into Concentration Training to re-consider Kawashima. The only way I can see him in is if the Brain Age series gets a new successful game on the Switch that is not a flop like the 3DS iteration.
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The reason I am speculating hardcore on Smash Switch’s roster is because I wanted to get as many interesting perspectives on newcomers as much as possible so that I may be able assure that one of my newcomer predictions is something I am confident in risking of. Sakurai provides enough criteria through interviews/ e-mails over the years that it hits that sweet spot where it really motivates me to find out what choices could be rejected or accepted.
Predicting the newcomers is not a hard task IMO, aside from perhaps predicting third-parties. All it takes is just straightforward research and connecting the dots to find that one newcomer Sakurai could definitely pick based on certain circumstances like gameplay potential, game critical reception, franchise popularity, clone feasibility, fan requests, etc. Sakurai's surprise factor really keeps Smash speculation an exciting time for me and motivates me to find which surprises could be chosen. It is super fun!
Although I will 100% admit, that there is a great chance that I could easily be wrong on some matters. Even with doing as much research as I can, Sakurai still can surprise me with something new that would change the course of speculation. But if I get a prediction wrong, then I get that wrong. The least I can do is predict more newcomers right than wrong for some degree of bragging rights.
I want to do my best in predicting regardless of the inevitable newcomer that could slam my predictions in half. If you have finished reading the entire roster analysis, in-depth feedback would be greatly appreciated! Do you agree with some of my analyses, and what suggestions do you have to improve my predictions. Let me know. I would love to have a discussion!
Special thanks to @GoldenYuiitusin, @Aurora Jenny, @TCT~Phantom, everyone in the Rate Their Chances thread, everyone in the SG Discord, every support thread of newcomers I am predicting that helped me with research, and everyone else in the Super Smash Bros. for Switch Discussion thread for giving me in-depth feedback on my prediction rosters and providing interesting discussion on each newcomer's chances at being in Smash. I also want to give a massive shoutout to Source Gaming for providing valuable sources for Smash information. Without the website, I would not have been able to go this far in Smash speculation.
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-79 Characters total.
-Veterans Wolf, Snake, and Ice Climbers return.
-18 newcomers total.
Other Notes:
-I am predicting a Hanafuda character in general, not specifically Daitouryou.
-I am predicting Lycanroc in general, not any specific form of Lycanroc.
Before beginning, what is important to note is that Sakurai most likely started this project and began roster planning in early 2016 based on the Smash Switch timeline noting Sakurai's period of taking a break on 1/6/2016 to casually confirming working on a project on November 2016 based on the Smash Switch timeline by Source Gaming. With Sakurai confirming that he is working on Smash Switch, it is most likely to assume that the project Sakurai had been planning on in 1/6/2016 was Smash Switch. I personally believe that he will apply the same relevance logic in Smash 4 with Smash Switch, which is basically this:
http://sourcegaming.info/2015/12/13/sakurai-fe25/
"Interviewer: In Smash for 3DS/ Wii U, there are far more Fire Emblem characters on the roster than in previous games. How did you go about the selection process for these characters? Sakurai: It really depends on the situation.
For example, Roy and Robin were included for completely different reasons. It also depends on luck, of course. Industry trends around the time when development begins is a pretty big factor. I started development on Smash for 3DS/ Wii U right after I’d wrapped up Kid Icarus: Uprising, and Fire Emblem Awakening was released one month after Uprising. So what’s popular around the time when I begin designing the game is important. Characters are almost never added after I’ve completed the project plan for Smash."
With Sakurai putting an important emphasis on the aspect of considering characters from around the time, he will most likely choose characters based on games that released from 2015 to 2016 for Smash Switch again. This is why I chose characters like Elma and Lycanroc since their games were released around the time the project plan was set in motion.
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He has a huge fond love for business and money, Tom Nook is a major character of the Animal Crossing series, whose importance in the franchise maintained throughout all four of the mainline games. Tom Nook is a famous icon in the Animal Crossing fandom and in the gaming community, widely known for his fan-depiction as an evil, greedy debt collector, despite Nook being relatively tame in-game. He was one of the most notably requested characters way back in Brawl, whose demand was far bigger than Villager before Villager’s reveal in Smash 4’s first trailer. Although he is not significant as Isabelle as of Animal Crossing: New Leaf, Tom Nook still plays an very important role in New Leaf as the home guide, money-helper and collector, and storekeeper for players to be still considered a major character of Animal Crossing that Sakurai would consider.
The only “weakness” he has against his inclusion is move-set potential, which would not be a huge problem. Tom’s characterization as a merchant in the Animal Crossing games are distinct traits of the character that Sakurai could play around for a move-set. If Sakurai could implement Isabelle (Assuming that she gets highly recommended by Nintendo for Smash, which is VERY likely to happen), I am sure that he would find Tom to be a very attracting idea who has wild potential to be a fun fighter. This would be especially the case for the Animal Crossing fans that would love to beat up the merchant or play as him.
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What would his general move-set and play-style be? Tom Nook would be standout by being a merchant-based fighter, who would utilize bells as a method of storing power for special moves. The more bells Tom Nook stores up, the more expensive and powerful his moves become. One of the first three special moves that would utilize bells would be placing down a house. The more bells you store the bigger and fancier the house will be, working well as a form of stage control. Second, tossing his bag of bells as a debt attack. The more bells you store, the more powerful the drop. Third, Tom Nook temporarily flies with his tanooki tail (Taking a bit of creative liberty from Super Mario Bros 3., much like how Villager uses Balloon Trip for his recovery in Smash 4). The more bells you store, the more expensive the transportation and defensive his recovery will be. He can ride an airplane at max bell power. Tom Nook utilizing capitalism for battle would make him a very enticing character to implement in Smash.
Why did I choose Tom Nook to have this playstyle. Well, a huge and central part of Animal Crossing's gameplay is upgrading. With New Leaf specifically, you begin living in a tent for a home:
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When you get the bells needed over the course of time and do Tom Nook's deeds, you are rewarded with a brand new house:
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From there, you are able to upgrade tools and other shops that expand on what the player can do when spend the time and bells to help others. It is a great and very addicting part of Animal Crossing that gets players coming back to AC every day, maintaining the game's immensely high replayability. Tom Nook would represent the upgrading gameplay aspect of Animal Crossing greatly because of his fond love of bells and how that connects to upgrading. He is still a big part of upgrading, especially with homes in particular. Homes have become a such central aspect of Animal Crossing that Nintendo made a spinoff surrounding on designing homes for animal villagers, of which Tom Nook still runs:
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The satisfying feeling of upgrading in AC would translate well into an interesting move-set for Tom Nook. It is the type of gameplay that Villager has yet to cover in Smash. The Villager covers a variety of tools such as the shovel, slingshot, and gyroids, balloons, fireworks and others, but not really the upgrading part of Animal Crossing. This part of Animal Crossing would provide enough inspiration for Sakurai to create a move-set out of Tom Nook from scratch, taking inspiration from the upgrading gameplay aspect. The more you hit the opponent in battle, the more money you gain for upgrades, allowing for a play-style that rewards skillful gameplay.
Would this move-set/play-style idea be considered forced like people suggest when move-sets are brought up? I do not believe so. As long as there is source material from the character’s tools, role, characterization and personality from their respective games, that would be enough for Sakurai to spark ideas for a play-style. Taking move-set ideas based on what Tom Nook does in the Animal Crossing games is not a forced idea. Only when a character does not offer distinct characteristics, gameplay ideas, and personality compared to the current Smash Bros. roster requiring more creative liberties than the source material gives can a idea be considered forced. Tom Nook does not have this problem, as his roles in Animal Crossing provide enough instant inspiration.
Maybe you are asking, "Tom Nook does not actually do this stuff, the Villager does it". I would like to point out Rosalina. When Smash 4 speculation came around, Mario was highly speculated to take some aspects from Galaxy 1+2, namely with the galaxy spin. But when Rosalina was added, she took the central gameplay elements of Galaxy/Rosalina's characterization as a mother of Lumas and incorporated it into her own move-set:
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Mario could have easily been inspired to take great gameplay elements from Galaxy to have his character be of a different play-style. But instead, Rosalina incorporated this despite these her not doing these elements in actual gameplay. It would not be that farfetched for Tom Nook to incorporate an upgrading money play-style for Smash despite the villager player mainly doing these tasks. Animal Crossing's gameplay aspect of upgrading through money provides enough substance to create and play around these mechanics, which is best incorporated for Tom Nook specifically because of his characterization and role of taking care of money business.
I think the difference between creating a move-set for Villager and assembling a move-set for Tom Nook is the clear theme, characterization, and personality. The villager in Animal Crossing does not have any clear, appealing characteristics that would immediately set a notable template for a move-set, requiring more creative thought and research to assemble a good move-set. Tom Nook has a clear, stand-out trait of being a money loving business merchant for me to immediately see these characters as unique fighters with potential. It allows the assembling of creating original move ideas for these characters to feel less restrictive and more playful. The least a newcomer needs is a clear theme, a distinct type of combat that has yet to be seen in Smash.
The themes of merchants and town-builders have yet to be seen as fully fleshed out fighters in Smash yet. Those themes are sufficable enough for Sakurai to work a good move-set around Isabelle and Tom Nook. To think that Sakurai would give up on implementing non-combatant newcomers like Isabell/Tom Nook is underestimating his length of creativity, especially with Sakurai noting the importance of seeking out newcomers beyond the obvious fighters that are clearly capable of doing combat. Those kinds of non-combatant newcomers is what Sakurai wants because they have stand-out characteristics that not many combat-based fighters would normally have.
Tom Nook just makes so much sense, especially after Villager’s inclusion in Smash 4. Tom Nook is the next choice for an out-there fighter after Isabelle. His large on-going significance in the AC series and gameplay potential will be major factors into Sakurai choosing him. It is honestly hard for me to imagine Sakurai passing off a great idea like Tom Nook, especially after Villager in Smash 4 and Isabelle’s potential addition in Smash Switch. Note his about non-combatants way back in a Kotaku Smash 4 interview:
“An important thing is that the characters stand out from one another—for instance, we might wanna be able to take characters that aren't typically combat-based characters. So you might have a sword-based character, but other characters are not necessarily going to [have swords]. You're not gonna wanna focus on that sort of element, just so there's a distinction between all of the other combat-based characters.
They have to have something really unique that makes them stand apart from other characters in the game, and not limit yourself to characters that are just combat-based.”
And note how Sakurai researches deeply into gameplay step-by-step to find distinct traits of a character:
“The first thing is to take an idea. For example, imagine a game and character within that game. Take a character such as the villager in Animal Crossing. The next process is think about that character's role in their game and then the structure of the game we're making. How do those work together with each other? What kind of interesting things can you do within the structure of the game? And then if you were to actually implement that character, how would the end result be, how it works with other elements of the game?”
The thorough research Sakurai does to find a character's potential even in non-combatant Nintendo franchises is why I continue to be affirmative with keeping multiple Animal Crossing newcomers like Isabelle/Tom Nook for my Smash Switch predictions. This is why I question prediction rosters that have Isabelle for her importance to Animal Crossing and gameplay potential, but do not include Nook too. Both characters have huge potential as fighters. Just because Isabelle took Tom Nook’s fame as the face of the franchise, it does not make Tom any less important to the franchise or less attracting as a fighter.
Tom Nook is still a MAJOR character in Animal Crossing. I highly doubt Sakurai would be sufficed with just Villager, because he would look foremost on move-set potential rather than listening to a fan-notion. But, just because the series is known for being peaceful that Villager would be content enough, it does not make the series any less appealing for fighter choices. Animal Crossing is big enough as a franchise now to warrant multiple newcomers. Animal Crossing has become so giant that its fanbase are hyping up and speculating theories and hopes of what the next AC title for the Switch will offer. The “issues” that Tom Nook has with franchise representation and lack of move-set potential are non-existent.
Tom Nook has an easily identifiable move-set theme with utilizing bells for a distinct play-style. Tom Nook has huge importance to the Animal Crossing games to warrant his inclusion. Animal Crossing is big enough to allow multiple characters. All of these factors point to Tom Nook being playable. In my opinion, he is one of the most obvious newcomers that will be in Smash Bros. Switch. I feel that confident about the lovable merchant.
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The only “weakness” he has against his inclusion is move-set potential, which would not be a huge problem. Tom’s characterization as a merchant in the Animal Crossing games are distinct traits of the character that Sakurai could play around for a move-set. If Sakurai could implement Isabelle (Assuming that she gets highly recommended by Nintendo for Smash, which is VERY likely to happen), I am sure that he would find Tom to be a very attracting idea who has wild potential to be a fun fighter. This would be especially the case for the Animal Crossing fans that would love to beat up the merchant or play as him.
What would his general move-set and play-style be? Tom Nook would be standout by being a merchant-based fighter, who would utilize bells as a method of storing power for special moves. The more bells Tom Nook stores up, the more expensive and powerful his moves become. One of the first three special moves that would utilize bells would be placing down a house. The more bells you store the bigger and fancier the house will be, working well as a form of stage control. Second, tossing his bag of bells as a debt attack. The more bells you store, the more powerful the drop. Third, Tom Nook temporarily flies with his tanooki tail (Taking a bit of creative liberty from Super Mario Bros 3., much like how Villager uses Balloon Trip for his recovery in Smash 4). The more bells you store, the more expensive the transportation and defensive his recovery will be. He can ride an airplane at max bell power. Tom Nook utilizing capitalism for battle would make him a very enticing character to implement in Smash.
Why did I choose Tom Nook to have this playstyle. Well, a huge and central part of Animal Crossing's gameplay is upgrading. With New Leaf specifically, you begin living in a tent for a home:
When you get the bells needed over the course of time and do Tom Nook's deeds, you are rewarded with a brand new house:
From there, you are able to upgrade tools and other shops that expand on what the player can do when spend the time and bells to help others. It is a great and very addicting part of Animal Crossing that gets players coming back to AC every day, maintaining the game's immensely high replayability. Tom Nook would represent the upgrading gameplay aspect of Animal Crossing greatly because of his fond love of bells and how that connects to upgrading. He is still a big part of upgrading, especially with homes in particular. Homes have become a such central aspect of Animal Crossing that Nintendo made a spinoff surrounding on designing homes for animal villagers, of which Tom Nook still runs:
The satisfying feeling of upgrading in AC would translate well into an interesting move-set for Tom Nook. It is the type of gameplay that Villager has yet to cover in Smash. The Villager covers a variety of tools such as the shovel, slingshot, and gyroids, balloons, fireworks and others, but not really the upgrading part of Animal Crossing. This part of Animal Crossing would provide enough inspiration for Sakurai to create a move-set out of Tom Nook from scratch, taking inspiration from the upgrading gameplay aspect. The more you hit the opponent in battle, the more money you gain for upgrades, allowing for a play-style that rewards skillful gameplay.
Would this move-set/play-style idea be considered forced like people suggest when move-sets are brought up? I do not believe so. As long as there is source material from the character’s tools, role, characterization and personality from their respective games, that would be enough for Sakurai to spark ideas for a play-style. Taking move-set ideas based on what Tom Nook does in the Animal Crossing games is not a forced idea. Only when a character does not offer distinct characteristics, gameplay ideas, and personality compared to the current Smash Bros. roster requiring more creative liberties than the source material gives can a idea be considered forced. Tom Nook does not have this problem, as his roles in Animal Crossing provide enough instant inspiration.
Maybe you are asking, "Tom Nook does not actually do this stuff, the Villager does it". I would like to point out Rosalina. When Smash 4 speculation came around, Mario was highly speculated to take some aspects from Galaxy 1+2, namely with the galaxy spin. But when Rosalina was added, she took the central gameplay elements of Galaxy/Rosalina's characterization as a mother of Lumas and incorporated it into her own move-set:
Mario could have easily been inspired to take great gameplay elements from Galaxy to have his character be of a different play-style. But instead, Rosalina incorporated this despite these her not doing these elements in actual gameplay. It would not be that farfetched for Tom Nook to incorporate an upgrading money play-style for Smash despite the villager player mainly doing these tasks. Animal Crossing's gameplay aspect of upgrading through money provides enough substance to create and play around these mechanics, which is best incorporated for Tom Nook specifically because of his characterization and role of taking care of money business.
I think the difference between creating a move-set for Villager and assembling a move-set for Tom Nook is the clear theme, characterization, and personality. The villager in Animal Crossing does not have any clear, appealing characteristics that would immediately set a notable template for a move-set, requiring more creative thought and research to assemble a good move-set. Tom Nook has a clear, stand-out trait of being a money loving business merchant for me to immediately see these characters as unique fighters with potential. It allows the assembling of creating original move ideas for these characters to feel less restrictive and more playful. The least a newcomer needs is a clear theme, a distinct type of combat that has yet to be seen in Smash.
The themes of merchants and town-builders have yet to be seen as fully fleshed out fighters in Smash yet. Those themes are sufficable enough for Sakurai to work a good move-set around Isabelle and Tom Nook. To think that Sakurai would give up on implementing non-combatant newcomers like Isabell/Tom Nook is underestimating his length of creativity, especially with Sakurai noting the importance of seeking out newcomers beyond the obvious fighters that are clearly capable of doing combat. Those kinds of non-combatant newcomers is what Sakurai wants because they have stand-out characteristics that not many combat-based fighters would normally have.
Tom Nook just makes so much sense, especially after Villager’s inclusion in Smash 4. Tom Nook is the next choice for an out-there fighter after Isabelle. His large on-going significance in the AC series and gameplay potential will be major factors into Sakurai choosing him. It is honestly hard for me to imagine Sakurai passing off a great idea like Tom Nook, especially after Villager in Smash 4 and Isabelle’s potential addition in Smash Switch. Note his about non-combatants way back in a Kotaku Smash 4 interview:
“An important thing is that the characters stand out from one another—for instance, we might wanna be able to take characters that aren't typically combat-based characters. So you might have a sword-based character, but other characters are not necessarily going to [have swords]. You're not gonna wanna focus on that sort of element, just so there's a distinction between all of the other combat-based characters.
They have to have something really unique that makes them stand apart from other characters in the game, and not limit yourself to characters that are just combat-based.”
And note how Sakurai researches deeply into gameplay step-by-step to find distinct traits of a character:
“The first thing is to take an idea. For example, imagine a game and character within that game. Take a character such as the villager in Animal Crossing. The next process is think about that character's role in their game and then the structure of the game we're making. How do those work together with each other? What kind of interesting things can you do within the structure of the game? And then if you were to actually implement that character, how would the end result be, how it works with other elements of the game?”
The thorough research Sakurai does to find a character's potential even in non-combatant Nintendo franchises is why I continue to be affirmative with keeping multiple Animal Crossing newcomers like Isabelle/Tom Nook for my Smash Switch predictions. This is why I question prediction rosters that have Isabelle for her importance to Animal Crossing and gameplay potential, but do not include Nook too. Both characters have huge potential as fighters. Just because Isabelle took Tom Nook’s fame as the face of the franchise, it does not make Tom any less important to the franchise or less attracting as a fighter.
Tom Nook is still a MAJOR character in Animal Crossing. I highly doubt Sakurai would be sufficed with just Villager, because he would look foremost on move-set potential rather than listening to a fan-notion. But, just because the series is known for being peaceful that Villager would be content enough, it does not make the series any less appealing for fighter choices. Animal Crossing is big enough as a franchise now to warrant multiple newcomers. Animal Crossing has become so giant that its fanbase are hyping up and speculating theories and hopes of what the next AC title for the Switch will offer. The “issues” that Tom Nook has with franchise representation and lack of move-set potential are non-existent.
Tom Nook has an easily identifiable move-set theme with utilizing bells for a distinct play-style. Tom Nook has huge importance to the Animal Crossing games to warrant his inclusion. Animal Crossing is big enough to allow multiple characters. All of these factors point to Tom Nook being playable. In my opinion, he is one of the most obvious newcomers that will be in Smash Bros. Switch. I feel that confident about the lovable merchant.
Isabelle has been a major staple for Nintendo ever since her appearance in New Leaf. She had appeared in Mario Kart 8, having her own official Twitter, a forefront marketed icon with significant roles in new AC games, and going farther than amiibo with having her own set of Nendoroids. This character has been more promoted than other AC characters, even more than even the previous face of the franchise, Tom Nook. With such heavy marketing, I definitely think that Nintendo will WANT Sakurai to make her playable as a Smash fighter, much like Rosalina back in Smash 4’s roster plan when the cosmic princess became playable in titles like Super Mario 3D World.
Given Sakurai’s experience with working on non-combatant fighters like Villager and Wii Fit Trainer, I feel very sure that Sakurai can accomplish and create a moveset for Isabelle that would make her a unique fighter. Most might not be able to spot the potential, but looking into Isabelle’s characterization/role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf gives away the answer. Her move-set potential can easily be found in the mayor gameplay of New Leaf. Isabelle's role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf is being a secretary/assistant that helps the villager mayor (the player) with duty management.
At the start, she helps the player that just moved in town by offering advice and making them the mayor, guiding players to earn a development permit, which allows the new mayor to enact new town laws and enable public work projects to built around town. Isabelle also helps the player with the new actions the mayor can do as well. One big part of the mayor gameplay that would be used in Smash gameplay are Public Works Projects, which has Isabelle placing town objects around the environment to gain stage control.
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Isabelle would be placing town structures such as fountains, clock posts, buildings (like cafes) that serve as a primary method of defense. These town structures are automatically built over time through construction zones, but they can be easily crushed by opponents if Isabelle does not keep foes at bay. Once construction is complete, the town structure becomes Isabelle's big advantage. Each town structure has various effects on Isabelle and the opponent. Fountains have wind-box effects for the opponents.
Clock-posts can freeze opponents for a small period of time every time 12 noon is quickly reached. Cafe buildings serve as a healing zone for Isabelle. These constructed objects can be destroyed, but have bigger defense than construction zones. Isabelle can lengthen the time of the town structure's effect and increase defense by holding down the B-button when starting to place structures, but at the cost of longer construction. The more objects Isabelle strategically places on the stage, the more advantages Isabelle has to overwhelm the opponent.
Regarding the play-style for Tom Nook I gave earlier, while I imagine both him and Isabelle utilizing stage control, their methods of winning are extremely different. Tom Nook, while involving stage control to a small degree for at least the house upgrade, involves utilizing and earning cash by skillfully attacking the opponent to earn powerful attacks. While for Isabelle, she utilizes more stage props to gain defense and massive stage control over her opponents, and less about upgrading. Both characters provide complexity, but their methods of play-style are different enough to be in the same roster.
Why am I predicting two Animal Crossing newcomers? In Smash 4, we had Rosalina AND Bowser Jr. in the same roster. Rosalina, at the time, was notably pushed in Mario game marketing far more than Bowser Jr., and her recent appearances in 3D world and in Mario spinoffs had lead to her being revealed as playable for the game. Does this mean that Bowser Jr. would have been discounted because Rosalina was pushed more? No. Bowser Jr. was part of Smash 4's roster plan alongside Rosalina because of his central roles in the New Super Mario Bros series and Galaxy series. With both characters providing distinct gameplay potential with the Clown Car and Galaxy mechanics, they both made it in Smash 4. This is why I see the idea of two Animal Crossing newcomers not being a far-fetched idea. I see Tom Nook AND Isabelle being added due to high promotion, importance to the series, and gameplay potential with New Leaf's mayor gameplay/AC's money upgrade gameplay aspect.
I am confident Sakurai will find Isabelle to be a fighter with potential. Sakurai might take notable importance in making characters faithful in characterization for Smash gameplay, but Isabelle being pacifist would not be an issue that would affect the whole picture. If anything took precedent for Sakurai when it comes to deciding characters for Smash, the first step taken would be looking at gameplay potential. He would look past the "peaceful" issue in the same way he did for Villager and Wii Fit Trainer in SSB4 and look into the character's role to discover Isabelle's potential. Gameplay would ultimately win out over a small characterization detail. If anything, her being characterized as pacifist in the AC games would only make her more stand-out as a newcomer.
Once Sakurai researches New Leaf and finds methods to integrate Isabelle’s characterization and mayor gameplay into a very fun play-style, I feel Sakurai will find her to be a fighter with great potential. I think Isabelle is one of the most obvious newcomers that will be in this Smash.
Given Sakurai’s experience with working on non-combatant fighters like Villager and Wii Fit Trainer, I feel very sure that Sakurai can accomplish and create a moveset for Isabelle that would make her a unique fighter. Most might not be able to spot the potential, but looking into Isabelle’s characterization/role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf gives away the answer. Her move-set potential can easily be found in the mayor gameplay of New Leaf. Isabelle's role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf is being a secretary/assistant that helps the villager mayor (the player) with duty management.
At the start, she helps the player that just moved in town by offering advice and making them the mayor, guiding players to earn a development permit, which allows the new mayor to enact new town laws and enable public work projects to built around town. Isabelle also helps the player with the new actions the mayor can do as well. One big part of the mayor gameplay that would be used in Smash gameplay are Public Works Projects, which has Isabelle placing town objects around the environment to gain stage control.
Isabelle would be placing town structures such as fountains, clock posts, buildings (like cafes) that serve as a primary method of defense. These town structures are automatically built over time through construction zones, but they can be easily crushed by opponents if Isabelle does not keep foes at bay. Once construction is complete, the town structure becomes Isabelle's big advantage. Each town structure has various effects on Isabelle and the opponent. Fountains have wind-box effects for the opponents.
Clock-posts can freeze opponents for a small period of time every time 12 noon is quickly reached. Cafe buildings serve as a healing zone for Isabelle. These constructed objects can be destroyed, but have bigger defense than construction zones. Isabelle can lengthen the time of the town structure's effect and increase defense by holding down the B-button when starting to place structures, but at the cost of longer construction. The more objects Isabelle strategically places on the stage, the more advantages Isabelle has to overwhelm the opponent.
Regarding the play-style for Tom Nook I gave earlier, while I imagine both him and Isabelle utilizing stage control, their methods of winning are extremely different. Tom Nook, while involving stage control to a small degree for at least the house upgrade, involves utilizing and earning cash by skillfully attacking the opponent to earn powerful attacks. While for Isabelle, she utilizes more stage props to gain defense and massive stage control over her opponents, and less about upgrading. Both characters provide complexity, but their methods of play-style are different enough to be in the same roster.
Why am I predicting two Animal Crossing newcomers? In Smash 4, we had Rosalina AND Bowser Jr. in the same roster. Rosalina, at the time, was notably pushed in Mario game marketing far more than Bowser Jr., and her recent appearances in 3D world and in Mario spinoffs had lead to her being revealed as playable for the game. Does this mean that Bowser Jr. would have been discounted because Rosalina was pushed more? No. Bowser Jr. was part of Smash 4's roster plan alongside Rosalina because of his central roles in the New Super Mario Bros series and Galaxy series. With both characters providing distinct gameplay potential with the Clown Car and Galaxy mechanics, they both made it in Smash 4. This is why I see the idea of two Animal Crossing newcomers not being a far-fetched idea. I see Tom Nook AND Isabelle being added due to high promotion, importance to the series, and gameplay potential with New Leaf's mayor gameplay/AC's money upgrade gameplay aspect.
I am confident Sakurai will find Isabelle to be a fighter with potential. Sakurai might take notable importance in making characters faithful in characterization for Smash gameplay, but Isabelle being pacifist would not be an issue that would affect the whole picture. If anything took precedent for Sakurai when it comes to deciding characters for Smash, the first step taken would be looking at gameplay potential. He would look past the "peaceful" issue in the same way he did for Villager and Wii Fit Trainer in SSB4 and look into the character's role to discover Isabelle's potential. Gameplay would ultimately win out over a small characterization detail. If anything, her being characterized as pacifist in the AC games would only make her more stand-out as a newcomer.
Once Sakurai researches New Leaf and finds methods to integrate Isabelle’s characterization and mayor gameplay into a very fun play-style, I feel Sakurai will find her to be a fighter with great potential. I think Isabelle is one of the most obvious newcomers that will be in this Smash.
I believe that Elma was highly considered as the promotional candidate for Smash 4 DLC. She already held great gameplay potential and her game came out around the time Sakurai was considering making a character from an already represented franchise that was getting a game around 2015. I feel it was a competition between Corrin and Elma, but with Corrin edging the win due to the gameplay potential and Sakurai likely wanting to push his favorite series more.
That said, I believe that Sakurai played Xenoblade X in 2015 around the time when Smash DLC was being developed and likely loved the gameplay/world building (Sakurai plays a lot of games during his free time and often delves into great gameplay/game design in Famitsu columns, even during Smash Switch development. I would like to note XC2 and Stardew Valley as recent examples). His potential love for the game could have influenced Sakurai to consider Elma for the next Smash’s project plan in 2016.
Around Smash Switch’s project plan, Sakurai likely would have put a placeholder for Elma. But, here is the very interesting situation, Sakurai would have likely negotiated with Monolith Soft for Elma, could have faced possible conflict, with Monolith noting Sakurai that they were developing a Xenoblade sequel for the Nintendo NX, where Sakurai could have been shown very early gameplay concepts of Rex and Blades. With Sakurai possibly having this early information, there could be a wall to Elma’s inclusion that could favor Rex more for the 2nd Xenoblade newcomer spot due to the convenient situation being similar to Greninja in Smash 4.
But, it is quite possible that both could get in due to their high gameplay potential. Elma has Rex as a potential obstacle, but we could see a situation where Sakurai adds both characters, regardless of potential overrepresentation that might be a major concern. Elma in particular is very unique in that she utilizes an interchangeable weapon that can switching from dual guns to dual swords. Her weapons can be changed via special to give her a different set of standard ground/aerial attacks. The attacks for dual guns have weaker knock-back and melee range, but has long range projectiles. The dual swords cannot hit as far as dual guns, but they deal bigger knock-back and damage with decent melee range.
The class Elma belongs to is of the Fullmetal Jaguar class, which excels in evasion/accuracy and has set of skills special to her such as Shadowstrike and Ghostwalker. All of these options for a move-set would make her play-style very distinct, as she would not only be a quick user akin to a fighter like Sheik, but also have a plethora of melee/range options at her disposal to keep her opponents guessing on what play-style she will be utilizing next. In my opinion, this unique play-style that remains true to Xenoblade X would be enticing enough for Sakurai to implement her in Smash.
Elma is in a very unique circumstance for Smash Switch, but I believe Elma will ultimately win out alongside Rex, with Sakurai having gameplay potential as one of the most important factors for Smash. Xenoblade is in a fortunate and lucky position, but whether Sakurai lines up all of the planets to create a Xenoblade newcomer apocalypse is ultimately up to him. The universe could blow up, or Sakurai could moderate the franchise's new character representation to one for other opportunities.
I can definitely see Sakurai considering the idea of a XC2 character. I feel that there is NO issue of timing for a XC2 character getting in. Sakurai most likely knows all the ins-and-outs of what games Nintendo is developing, considering many things:
1. Roy's addition in Melee, a character whose game did not come out in Japan until 2002 was playable when mid-development came.
2. Lucas' consideration in Melee, a character who was originally considered back when MOTHER 3 was being developed for the N64 before the game was cancelled in 2000.
Considering that these characters got seriously considered ahead of time, even though the franchises' popularity is less than Mario/Pokemon, I feel it is safe to assume that Sakurai would have known of Xenoblade Chronicle 2's development (Being planned since 2014). He would have likely considered adding a character from the sequel regardless of it being in its early phases, having early concepts of Blades to understand the gameplay mechanics of XC2. This would have been finalized around 2015 to early 2016, with beta character designs of Rex/Pyra made around those times right after to form a concrete idea for a move-set. With Xenoblade 2 being a new mainline game developed around 2016 from an already playable-represented franchise in Smash that assures the franchise having a bright future, it makes me think that Rex/Pyra are in THE forefront of Sakurai's radar for newcomer deciding.
How would Rex be stand out as a newcomer? Blades are essentially personas/stands, weaponized life forms that a Driver can summon by resonating with their Core Crystals (Essentially, the heart of the Blade). There are different kind of Blades, each with being of different elemental types, Battle Skills that automatically raise certain stats for Drivers (accuracy, critical damage and rate, recharge rate, evasion), and Blade Arts for the Driver to use. They act as assistants for the driver and do not actually engage in battle. The closer the Driver is to their Blade, the bigger the stat boosts.
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These Blades can be incorporated in Smash for a unique play-style. Rex and Pyra would be in the battlefield fighting, but Pyra would not engage in battle, and instead help the player with stat boosts. Rex would be a slow & heavy, but powerful sword user in the battlefield. The closer Rex is to Pyra in battle, the better the automatic stat boosts for the player. When Rex does more hits to the opponent via non-special move attacks, he gains an affinity level. When Rex reaches an affinity level, he can activate Pyra for a special move. The bigger the affinity level, the more powerful the special becomes. The max level of special Rex can reach is Level 4.
However, Rex has two weaknesses in return of being powerful and having a set of useful abilities. When Pyra is damaged, Rex will be hurt and receive half the damage his Blade receives, just like in-game. Pyra can also be knocked off the field if the player is not careful. Without Pyra, Rex's special moves become even more weaker and he would no longer have the benefits of affinity and stat boosts, thus leaving him more vulnerable in battle. Fortunately, Pyra can be restored in battle after a certain period of time just like the Luma with Rosalina. Although, Rex would have to manually press the neutral special to bring her back. Basically, think of Rex as a riskier Ice Climbers. This play-style and the distinct characteristics Blades would be distinct enough for Sakurai to seriously consider the character.
Given that Nintendo have been pushing and marketing Xenoblade Chronicles 2 prime-time (more promotional advertising than the original Xenoblade), it makes me think that Rex/Pyra are a certainty for Smash. This heavy marketing was likely planned from the start since development started with Monolith Soft. This studio could have majorly influenced Sakurai's decision of considering Rex. Is there competition for Rex/Pyra? Perhaps Elma since Xenoblade X had closer timing in terms of project planning in 2016 for her to be chosen, but it is possible that we could get both if Sakurai finds potential in both characters.
All three might share a stat changing play-style, but their methods of interchangeability are different. Shulk is a character who can change his stats through modes via neutral special. Elma would change weapons via neutral special for different set of aerial andstandard attacks while stats for specials and Smash attacks remain the same. While for Rex, he would be able to change his Blade via neutral special for a different set of specials and temporary stat-boosts from Blades. All three provide complexity, yet differ in how they change attacks and stats to be distinct enough for all three to be in the roster.
This is more of a theory than anything else, but remember when Sakurai said he was developing Smash Switch in silence every day. But, also recall months ago that he completed Xenoblade 2 and said he enjoyed the game? I think at that time, Sakurai was not only playing XC2 for enjoyment purposes, but also to research Xenoblade 2 and how Rex/Pyra could be incorporated for Smash gameplay. We might even see some obscure fan-service costumes or easter eggs that only Sakurai could add, given that he has played the game in full.
1. Roy's addition in Melee, a character whose game did not come out in Japan until 2002 was playable when mid-development came.
2. Lucas' consideration in Melee, a character who was originally considered back when MOTHER 3 was being developed for the N64 before the game was cancelled in 2000.
Considering that these characters got seriously considered ahead of time, even though the franchises' popularity is less than Mario/Pokemon, I feel it is safe to assume that Sakurai would have known of Xenoblade Chronicle 2's development (Being planned since 2014). He would have likely considered adding a character from the sequel regardless of it being in its early phases, having early concepts of Blades to understand the gameplay mechanics of XC2. This would have been finalized around 2015 to early 2016, with beta character designs of Rex/Pyra made around those times right after to form a concrete idea for a move-set. With Xenoblade 2 being a new mainline game developed around 2016 from an already playable-represented franchise in Smash that assures the franchise having a bright future, it makes me think that Rex/Pyra are in THE forefront of Sakurai's radar for newcomer deciding.
How would Rex be stand out as a newcomer? Blades are essentially personas/stands, weaponized life forms that a Driver can summon by resonating with their Core Crystals (Essentially, the heart of the Blade). There are different kind of Blades, each with being of different elemental types, Battle Skills that automatically raise certain stats for Drivers (accuracy, critical damage and rate, recharge rate, evasion), and Blade Arts for the Driver to use. They act as assistants for the driver and do not actually engage in battle. The closer the Driver is to their Blade, the bigger the stat boosts.
These Blades can be incorporated in Smash for a unique play-style. Rex and Pyra would be in the battlefield fighting, but Pyra would not engage in battle, and instead help the player with stat boosts. Rex would be a slow & heavy, but powerful sword user in the battlefield. The closer Rex is to Pyra in battle, the better the automatic stat boosts for the player. When Rex does more hits to the opponent via non-special move attacks, he gains an affinity level. When Rex reaches an affinity level, he can activate Pyra for a special move. The bigger the affinity level, the more powerful the special becomes. The max level of special Rex can reach is Level 4.
However, Rex has two weaknesses in return of being powerful and having a set of useful abilities. When Pyra is damaged, Rex will be hurt and receive half the damage his Blade receives, just like in-game. Pyra can also be knocked off the field if the player is not careful. Without Pyra, Rex's special moves become even more weaker and he would no longer have the benefits of affinity and stat boosts, thus leaving him more vulnerable in battle. Fortunately, Pyra can be restored in battle after a certain period of time just like the Luma with Rosalina. Although, Rex would have to manually press the neutral special to bring her back. Basically, think of Rex as a riskier Ice Climbers. This play-style and the distinct characteristics Blades would be distinct enough for Sakurai to seriously consider the character.
Given that Nintendo have been pushing and marketing Xenoblade Chronicles 2 prime-time (more promotional advertising than the original Xenoblade), it makes me think that Rex/Pyra are a certainty for Smash. This heavy marketing was likely planned from the start since development started with Monolith Soft. This studio could have majorly influenced Sakurai's decision of considering Rex. Is there competition for Rex/Pyra? Perhaps Elma since Xenoblade X had closer timing in terms of project planning in 2016 for her to be chosen, but it is possible that we could get both if Sakurai finds potential in both characters.
All three might share a stat changing play-style, but their methods of interchangeability are different. Shulk is a character who can change his stats through modes via neutral special. Elma would change weapons via neutral special for different set of aerial andstandard attacks while stats for specials and Smash attacks remain the same. While for Rex, he would be able to change his Blade via neutral special for a different set of specials and temporary stat-boosts from Blades. All three provide complexity, yet differ in how they change attacks and stats to be distinct enough for all three to be in the roster.
This is more of a theory than anything else, but remember when Sakurai said he was developing Smash Switch in silence every day. But, also recall months ago that he completed Xenoblade 2 and said he enjoyed the game? I think at that time, Sakurai was not only playing XC2 for enjoyment purposes, but also to research Xenoblade 2 and how Rex/Pyra could be incorporated for Smash gameplay. We might even see some obscure fan-service costumes or easter eggs that only Sakurai could add, given that he has played the game in full.
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Choosing Geno as a prediction was not an easy decision. I grew up playing Super Mario RPG on the Wii Virtual Console loving every second of the experience. I thought Geno was a very cool character back then and wanted him in Smash 4. That never happened. But, I was super astonished when Geno had his own Mii costume for Smash 4 DLC. I looked into the interview of Sakurai mentioning the story behind the Mii costume with him stating:
"Geno:
—What led you to decide to make a Geno costume after all this time?
Sakurai: To tell the truth, it’s because I wanted Geno to be a playable character. He has a gun for a hand, and I think he fits in really well with Smash. During Brawl, I thought it would be great if I could add him, but in the end it didn’t become a reality."
I interpreted that comment as Square Enix being stingy about their properties. I thought he was not included because he was just a character from a one-off SNES game and never thought much about it since, slowly drifting away my hope for the puppet as time went on, never seriously considering him when it came to Smash Switch newcomer speculation. But, then I thought about critically. I thought about Vergeben's rumor of Simon Belmont and Ridley being in Smash as his info quickly became more legitimate at E3. What these two choices hold in common was that they were generally perceived as impossible due to many reasons such as Konami being a bad company, the harsh treatment of Kojima, and Sakurai stating two times in Brawl/Smash 4 that Ridley would be impossible.
Thinking hypothetically, if Sakurai went that far to implement these characters in Smash Switch, despite the very difficult obstacles, I personally believe Sakurai would go beyond the line and negotiate Geno from Square Enix yet again. What I theorize about Smash 4 DLC was that the production for it had a lower budget. The evidence pointing to this is Sakurai stating that they had a smaller team working on the DLC, noting that there were a smaller selection of songs to choose from (pointing out the Midgar FF7 stage having only two non-remixed songs), and Sakurai choosing to add the "most realizable and negotiable character" (Bayonetta) when it came to the Smash 4 ballot. I feel these budget constraints prevented Sakurai from negotiating beyond Cloud Strife for Smash 4 DLC, with the only affordable option left being to add Geno as a Mii costume.
Normally, I would say that Geno being a one-shot character and Square Enix being strict would damage his chance to be in Smash. But, I do not believe this to be an actual problem for Sakurai. He wanted Geno badly back in Brawl and Smash 4 because of his move-set potential, setting aside the fact that his appearance was one-time, being willing enough to get Geno as one of the only notable Mii costumes for Smash 4 DLC done for the fans. Considering that SMRPG was one of Square's biggest successes in history (with SMRPG selling as massively as the huge Tomb Raider/Final Fantasy games), I feel the company would be fine with the idea of SMRPG being represented in Smash. The belief that Square Enix would strike against the idea of Geno being playable is a huge overstatement.
Square would be willing to make business to make Geno in Smash a reality, if the budget for negotiating characters for Smash Bros. allows it. With the opportunity being possible thanks to Smash Switch likely being a higher budget game, this would finally have Sakurai realize Geno for Smash Switch. The 13 year-long journey of Sakurai wanting Geno as a playable fighter would close in pure satisfaction for him and the immense number of hardcore Geno supporters. I am banking that he will add Geno again, making a dream finally come true.
After researching Sakurai’s criteria on Pokemon again, I have realized that Decidueye actually is not the frontrunner candidate for the next Pokemon newcomer. Who will be chosen will be based on combination of factors. While Decidueye has huge popularity in the Pokemon fanbase and gameplay potential, there is one factor he misses that is crucial for his inclusion, this part in particular:
“Well first of all, we talk with the Pokemon company. What’s the hot Pokemon? What Pokemon are in the movies right now? And really do a lot of research on that front.
For example, X and Y are coming out – of course, we haven’t done any market research because they’re not out yet, but we look at the animated series or movies and anything like that and again, find out which ones are going to be central to any of conversations in Pokemon going forward.
But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things.”
Decidueye has not become a central Pokemon and has been less promoted in the anime. As of Sun/Moon anime's new episodes, Ash’s Rowlet has not evolved into Decidueye, as his current role in the anime is mostly for gags. The one that actually has become central to the anime and marketing in general is Lycanroc:
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Lycanroc has become one of Ash’s primary partners in the anime recently. Outside of that medium, his pre-evolution/other forms have been promoted frequently in 2016 in Sun and Moon video games, being the first Pokemon to appear in a new trading card mechanic called GX, prominence in the manga, and merchandise. Sakurai has likely done heavy marketing research for Sun/Moon around the time of project planning. I feel Sakurai certainly go for Lycanroc due to the promotional frequency.
Lycanroc also has solid move-set potential, wielding the powers of levitating rocks. He is an earth-bender of sorts in Avatar terms, which is very distinct when compared to the current in Smash 4. Since Midnight Lycanroc is the most popular out of its three forms, I will be discussing its play-style in that specific form. Looking at Midnight Lycanroc’s Pokedex information, it acts quite recklessly and craves for victory, provoking opponents and using close combat when nearby. Lycanroc plays as a fighter who utilizes rock powers in melee for a bait-and-attack play-style. The many other forms of Lycanroc like Dusk and Midday can work too if Sakurai wants to have the Pokemon focus on a ranged-attack bait-and-attack play-style. The choices Sakurai has with Lycanroc would provide enough gameplay potential for Sakurai to play around with.
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I personally believe now Lycanroc will be the next and only Pokemon newcomer chosen for Smash. While it would be ideal for the roster to get Lycanroc & Decidueye, I feel that only one spot will remain open, in the same way only one spot was open for one new X/Y Pokemon way back in Smash 4’s project plan. With Lycanroc having the advantage of being more promoted in many mediums like the anime more than Decidueye way back in 2016, It would not matter how distinct Decidueye would be because without that combination of benefits Lycanroc has, he will not make it in. Lycanroc is one of those Pokemon has become central to Sun/Moon from S/M's pre-release to now. I feel firmly confident that Lycanroc will be playable over Decidueye.
“Well first of all, we talk with the Pokemon company. What’s the hot Pokemon? What Pokemon are in the movies right now? And really do a lot of research on that front.
For example, X and Y are coming out – of course, we haven’t done any market research because they’re not out yet, but we look at the animated series or movies and anything like that and again, find out which ones are going to be central to any of conversations in Pokemon going forward.
But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things.”
Decidueye has not become a central Pokemon and has been less promoted in the anime. As of Sun/Moon anime's new episodes, Ash’s Rowlet has not evolved into Decidueye, as his current role in the anime is mostly for gags. The one that actually has become central to the anime and marketing in general is Lycanroc:
Lycanroc has become one of Ash’s primary partners in the anime recently. Outside of that medium, his pre-evolution/other forms have been promoted frequently in 2016 in Sun and Moon video games, being the first Pokemon to appear in a new trading card mechanic called GX, prominence in the manga, and merchandise. Sakurai has likely done heavy marketing research for Sun/Moon around the time of project planning. I feel Sakurai certainly go for Lycanroc due to the promotional frequency.
Lycanroc also has solid move-set potential, wielding the powers of levitating rocks. He is an earth-bender of sorts in Avatar terms, which is very distinct when compared to the current in Smash 4. Since Midnight Lycanroc is the most popular out of its three forms, I will be discussing its play-style in that specific form. Looking at Midnight Lycanroc’s Pokedex information, it acts quite recklessly and craves for victory, provoking opponents and using close combat when nearby. Lycanroc plays as a fighter who utilizes rock powers in melee for a bait-and-attack play-style. The many other forms of Lycanroc like Dusk and Midday can work too if Sakurai wants to have the Pokemon focus on a ranged-attack bait-and-attack play-style. The choices Sakurai has with Lycanroc would provide enough gameplay potential for Sakurai to play around with.
I personally believe now Lycanroc will be the next and only Pokemon newcomer chosen for Smash. While it would be ideal for the roster to get Lycanroc & Decidueye, I feel that only one spot will remain open, in the same way only one spot was open for one new X/Y Pokemon way back in Smash 4’s project plan. With Lycanroc having the advantage of being more promoted in many mediums like the anime more than Decidueye way back in 2016, It would not matter how distinct Decidueye would be because without that combination of benefits Lycanroc has, he will not make it in. Lycanroc is one of those Pokemon has become central to Sun/Moon from S/M's pre-release to now. I feel firmly confident that Lycanroc will be playable over Decidueye.
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With more insiders and Vergeben noting the inclusion of Ridley in Smash, I figure that I would analyze his chances again, very briefly. For Ridley, I think most of us already know that his massive fan-demand, importance to the Metroid franchise, and moveset potential are the major positives towards his inclusion. The only thing that I can discuss to a small degree of speculation is how Sakurai figured out a way to implement Ridley. Honestly I have no way of knowing the solution. I have already seen all of the angles against and favoring Ridley’s implementation in Smash, that coming up with an answer to that would be impossible without Sakurai stating the specifics in terms of gameplay via interview when his big reveal comes potentially at E3, and I am not that heavy in knowledge in game design to truly understand how Ridley could work as a balanced playable character. All I know now, based on the Vergeben leak, it is that Sakurai found a solution.
For the longest time since the beginning of Smash Switch speculation, I have been skeptical of Bandanna Dee’s chances. But, after thinking about Dee critically from a different perspective, I finally see why fans have been confident with Bandanna Dee. Before looking into positives, we need to look at the history of new Kirby additions with earlier Smash games. For King Dedede, he was planned to be included in Smash 64, but was cut during development. For Meta-knight, his inclusion was considered in Melee, but was held off because he wanted put other Nintendo titles in the spotlight before his own franchise, despite the character being extremely popular in Japan. Sakurai’s hesitance on more Kirby newcomers remained until Brawl, where he finally added King Dedede and Meta-knight.
I feel Sakurai’s hesitance on his characters was the main reason Bandanna Dee was excluded from Smash 4’s roster. This was very understandable, given that Dee’s playable debut in Kirby: Return to Dreamland might have been seen as too pre-mature, lacking the substantial amount of importance needed to be considered a central Kirby character. But now, Bandanna Dee has been increasing in importance, with his playable role in Kirby: Rainbow Curse and a number of smaller roles in Triple Deluxe, Planet Robobot, and Battle Royale. With HAL Laboratory paying ample attention to the Kirby fanbase and giving Dee greater presence and marketing, there is a real chance that they could contact Sakurai while he works on Smash Switch’s project planning phase to heavily push for a playable Bandanna Dee.
With Bandanna Dee’s increasing importance, it resulted with an increasing Dee fanbase, which likely caused a high surge of votes for the character with the Smash 4 ballot. These two factors could finally lead Sakurai to seriously consider Bandanna Dee and let go of his Kirby character hesitance/modesty. Gameplay potential would not be a notable problem, as Dee’s utilization of spears alone is minimally distinct enough from the current Smash cast for Sakurai to find easy move-set inspiration. It could be argued that just utilizing spears lacks substance, but Sakurai can find inspiration in the minimum a character offers, as he only needs to look at one distinct, on-the-surface trait to find the potential like Little Mac’s single, unique trait of being a boxer and Ryu’s single, unique trait of utilizing fighting game mechanics for Smash gameplay.
There is a chance that Sakurai’s modesty on Kirby character representation could still remain that excludes Dee from the roster, but at this point, that has a small chance of happening now with the positives of his inclusion the spear-wielder currently has. I am banking Sakurai letting go of his modesty, finally making Bandanna Dee a playable character after making sure of his massive popularity in the Kirby franchise and his likely high number of votes with the Smash 4 Ballot. Dee has almost nothing preventing his inclusion now.
Rhythm Heaven is among one of the biggest Nintendo franchises in Japan. Ever since the franchise's late debut on the Gameboy Advance's life cycle in 2006, the franchise has gained a large, Japanese fanbase. It continued to grow bigger with the debut of the sequel Rhythm Heaven on the Nintendo DS in 2008. Due to the success of the first game in Japan, the sequel managed to receive a global localization. The DS iteration managed to sell over 3 million units total, which marked the peak of the franchise. Rhythm Heaven continued to perform greatly with the Wii sequel (Rhythm Heaven Fever) and the 3DS sequel (Rhythm Heaven: Megamix). The cult fanbase for Rhythm Heaven outside of Japan grew greatly around the time of Fever, spawning hundreds of fan-remixes and memes on YouTube thanks to the mini-game of Ringside. The dedication of Rhythm Heaven fan-content still happens to this day. With all of the fan-content and Japan success, you would think a Rhythm Heaven character would get in Smash by now. Well, not exactly, but there is a ray of hope that a RH character was planned way back in Smash 4.
Before E3 2014 came, there was a Gematsu leak that would leak a second batch of newcomers for the roster. One of these choices were the Chorus Kids. Since the leak, there have been many debates and controversy on the inclusion of Chorus Kids. The negative reception soon spread like wildfire once they were not present in Smash 4's base game and DLC selection. With such reception, the Smash fanbase soon grew silent on the possibility of Chorus Kids, even in Smash Switch speculation to this day. But, ever since that leak came, there has been a growing amount of supporters for multiple Rhythm Heaven characters in general. Fan-content would soon multiply thereafter. Thanks to the leak, a bigger Rhythm Heaven fanbase outside of Japan soon sprouted. With Smash Switch nearby, now would be the best time to include a Rhythm Heaven character.
I am of the specific camp that believes the Gematsu Leak was the original roster draft for Smash 4 before changes got made due to 3DS limitations or moveset potential matters (Robin chosen over Chrom for example). I also believe that due to 3DS limitations, it kept ‘duo’ characters like Chorus Kids and Ice Climbers from getting in the game. With the hidden files of a Rhythm Heaven symbol and Sneaky Spirit in Smash Run, it all points to Chorus Kids’ potential inclusion in Smash.
Sakurai already sees merit in Rhythm Heaven getting a character. He already saw the potential of utilizing these specific characters, likely utilizing moves inspired by several rhythm mini-games with a play-style that involves rhythmic timing. The main question is mostly if technical difficulties will become an issue again. I doubt it will this time. I also highly doubt that any other character from RH would get in. Because if there were going to be a RH character, Sakurai would have chosen another candidate like Karate Man to be in Smash 4 by now. The lack of a RH character in Smash 4’s base game and DLC selection suggests to me that Sakurai wants to keep the character idea of Chorus Kids and try to make them work in the Switch version of Smash this time around. Sakurai likely had a full move-set concept of the Chorus Kids way back in Smash 4, based on this article here:
Nintendo Dream: When not you are not developing and there is a new title or character released, you are not thinking about “How about that one in the next Smash Bros?”, right?
Masahiro Sakurai: Absolutely not! I’m always thinking that doing Smash Bros. again will be impossible. Impossible, impossible…is what I always think, but I ended up making it again (laughs). But once I decide to do it, I’m very fast about creating moves and such. For example Greninja, even before his name was decided I received several illustrations. I took them home in the evening and around midnight I had already done all his actions, normal moves, special moves and pose-pictures and sent them around asking “What do you think?”.
Nintendo Dream: That’s incredible speed! By the way, when deciding on which characters to use, are you looking into unreleased new games?
Masahiro Sakurai: At the very beginning I did that. This time our project-proposal is dated May 2012, at that time all characters were decided already. Then as production moves on we will say “We won’t put that character in” and cut out low-priority-characters.
Assuming he made concepts for move-sets for every Smash 4 newcomer planned, I feel it is EXTREMELY likely that the Chorus Kids concept will be revisited to be implemented for Smash Switch (Basing it on the Gematsu leak being true). I personally think a Rhythm Heaven character is an inevitability, with Chorus Kids as the most likely candidate chosen to represent RH as a whole. With Rhythm Heaven’s staggering popularity/impact/sales during the DS era, the mini-games that gained a huge amount of parodies in meme culture, their massive gameplay potential with incorporating rhythm mini-games into a cohesive move-set, and the 2016 release of Rhythm Heaven Megamix that would tie in well for a promotion while the 3DS remains highly marketed by Nintendo, now would be BEST time to include them.
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We have already seen Nintendo and Sakurai dedicating some love to the Famicom game with Nintendo Land's mini-game, 3DS Virtual Console release, Takamaru's AT role and Mii costumes in Smash 4. I feel what happened back in Smash 4's early planning in 2012, in terms of the newcomer selection, was one retro and one historical retro surprise representative being planned from the very start. Duck Hunt Dog was the first selected to be Smash 4's 'surprise' character according to the Smash 4 slideshow proposal. Takamaru, was not in specific competition of that category. I feel, Takamaru was competing against Little Mac for the only standard retro newcomer spot.
Although both had strong reasons to get into Smash and while Takamaru provided distinctness with him being a samurai loaded with a plethora of Japanese weapons, I feel Little Mac was chosen over him because of boxer's worldwide appeal, especially noting the retro revival game that was Punch Out!! Wii that came out in 2009. Being the only category Takamaru likely had a chance to be chosen in, it is very easy to understand why Takamaru could not get in Smash 4 despite merits. Getting in as DLC was not an option for Takamaru either, as I feel it was likely the retro category was hardly considered for the DLC selection. Now here is the interesting part.
Assuming that development started around in 2016 when Sakurai confirmed that he is working on the next project (likely being Smash Bros. Switch), there were no notable retro revival games from classic franchises from Nintendo that came during the timespan of Smash 4 and now. Given that selection of newcomers were likely selected from the beginning, Sakurai will have likely chosen the next standard retro candidate the same way as he did in Melee and Brawl (With Pit and Ice Climbers coming to mind). With no retro revivals to compete with, given everything I explained here, with Smash 4 content and pushes of the Murasame game from Nintendo, and one spot likely being reserved for one retro character again like Mac, with everything considered, it all lines up for Takamaru to be the next contender.
Sakurai had already noted the game's historical relationship with Zelda, Metroid, and Kid Icarus as an important point of Takamaru back in the Pic of the Day. I feel that status gives him the edge of consideration also. The only thing that would stand in the away for competition is if there were a major retro revival for a classic franchise other than Murasame Castle that Nintendo wants to promote badly, assuming the game comes out in 2018 in time for promotion. But I feel that is very unlikely at this point in time.
I would be very surprised if anyone else got chosen other than Takamaru, unless in the case that Sakurai reconsiders Balloon Fighter and puts him in competition of Takamaru in honor of Iwata. Those are the only two candidates I can see Sakurai reconsidering for top retro candidates again. That and obscure status potentially being very large obstacles of Sakurai adding Takamaru, those are his only problems I can see. But, I can see Sakurai getting past that pretty easily and taking the risk to make the samurai finally playable in Smash.
Takamaru, to me, is literally in the very front of the line to get in Smash now.
In every Smash Bros. game since Melee, there is always a “surprise” character that gets added in the game. Those characters are Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B, and Duck Hunt. All of them share one thing in common, representing an older, but significant part of Nintendo’s history. Mr. Game & Watch represents one of Nintendo’s first big successes in the video game market with the line of LCD handheld game devices they made in the 1980s. R.O.B. represents the rise of the video games in the U.S. thanks to Nintendo marketing the Robotic Operating Buddy along the NES as a “novel, advanced” toy. Duck Hunt represents the big success of the NES Zapper, whose game was widely known for the iconic laughing dog and being an pack-in alongside Super Mario Bros. for NES bundles. I like to call these types of newcomers as “historical surprises”.
With these three characters representing a major portion of NIntendo’s older history, what else is there left to add for historical surprises? After Duck Hunt’s addition in Smash 4, it is very difficult to find historical candidates that would match and represent the same calibur of impact as Duck Hunt, R.O.B., and Game & Watch. There are choices that many Smash fans previously brought up in pre-Smash 4 speculation such as Sheriff, Virtual Boy character, and Nester. But, there are problems with them.
Sheriff does represent Nintendo’s first video game character, but his game never had the same degree of impact in the video game industry as R.O.B. and Duck Hunt. A Virtual Boy character represents Nintendo’s biggest failure in history, which I highly doubt Sakurai would want to add. Nester, while having the same impact as Duck Hunt and R.O.B. with the magazine of Nintendo Power, is not as globally recognized in Japan/Europe for Sakurai to consider it. In a process of elimination, the only newcomer choice left that I feel would best fill in the historical surprise role would be a character based on Nintendo’s beginning, Hanafuda.
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Hanafuda (Translated as “flower cards”) are Japanese playing cards used to play a multitude of games like Koi Koi and Go-Stop. This was the very first product manufactured by Nintendo way back in 1889. Before the debut of Hanafuda, many kinds of playing cards were banned in Japan due to the Western influences of Japanese card games and the surge of Christian missionaries from Europe.
For the Hanafuda creator, Fusajiro Yamauchi, to get around the card problem, he would have to replace the numbers in his cards with Japanese painted art that represented the twelve months of the year. The Japanese government banned Hanafuda eventually. But around the late 1800s, playing cards were no longer banned. Yamauchi could finally create a legal business to sell his Hanafuda products, creating a new company, Nintendo Koppai (The original name of Nintendo before it was simplified decades later.)
The Hanafuda cards by Nintendo grew to become a huge hit in Japan, which led to partnerships with Disney and developing other classic Japanese/Western card games for their business. The experience Nintendo had with selling Hanafuda eventually led them forming a VERY successful business in toys, and eventually producing a business for video games that Nintendo is globally known for today.
With Hanafuda playing a MAJOR key role in Nintendo’s history, Sakurai might consider the idea of creating an original character heavily influenced by Hanafuda for the next historical surprise newcomer. Hanafuda might not be very video game related as G&W, R.O.B., and Duck Hunt, but I feel that its significant importance to Nintendo would be enough for Sakurai to be comfortable with the idea.
So, how can you form a character out of playing cards? There are MANY possible solutions to this:
1. Using Napoleon from Nintendo’s most famous Hanafuda deck.
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With the Daitouryou deck featuring Napoleon being the most popular Hanafuda variant, Sakurai could use this historical figure as the basis for the Hanafuda character.
2. Using the tengu from Nintendo's second most popular Hanafuda's deck.
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Although this variant of the Hanafuda deck is not as popular as the Napoleon one, the tengu has one advantage that Napoleon does not have. One, tengus being more significant to the origin of Nintendo and Hanafuda in general. Two, the tengu’s Japanese cultural relations that would fit in more than a French emperor using Japanese cards for battle.
3. Going more out-there and giving the Hanafuda deck limbs for movement.
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This solution is a very unlikely scenario, but giving a Hanafuda deck arms and legs would better fit in Smash with the Hanafuda character having a crazy wacky design.
What would be the moveset theme and playstyle for a Hanafuda character be? To get a general grasp of the idea I will explain it in a Smash 4 project proposal way:
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A Hanafuda character would be a very unique fighter with it utilizing hanafuda cards to summon environmental objects, tools, and animals from the card art as the primary form of attacking. Its playstyle would involve long-range summoning attacks to keep opponents at bay.
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The only big competition a Hanafuda character will have to face for a historical surprise addition would be a character based on Nintendo toys made in the 1960s. Of all the potential candidates that represent an integral part of Nintendo’s long history, a 1960s toy character makes the most sense after Hanafuda’s addition. Although, without a definitive mascot or character to represent these toys, creating a character out of 1960s toys might be harder for Sakurai to imagine and he might go with Hanafuda instead. Ultimately, who he chooses as the historical surprise for Smash will depend on what Sakurai sees as having more playful gameplay potential. Both have great potential to me, but Sakurai might have a different perspective otherwise.
With a 1960’s toys character being potential competition, I say a Hanafuda character’s chances are 50/50. I believe there will be a “historical surprise” in this Smash, and the odds of Sakurai creating a character out of Hanafuda are way better now with G&W, R.O.B., and Duck Hunt no longer being major competition. The Hanafuda cards Nintendo made way back are an integral part of the company’s history. I feel such historical importance will be represented via character. With Hanafuda being distinct culturally and providing gameplay potential as a card summoner, I feel confident in banking on a Hanafuda character for Smash Switch.
With these three characters representing a major portion of NIntendo’s older history, what else is there left to add for historical surprises? After Duck Hunt’s addition in Smash 4, it is very difficult to find historical candidates that would match and represent the same calibur of impact as Duck Hunt, R.O.B., and Game & Watch. There are choices that many Smash fans previously brought up in pre-Smash 4 speculation such as Sheriff, Virtual Boy character, and Nester. But, there are problems with them.
Sheriff does represent Nintendo’s first video game character, but his game never had the same degree of impact in the video game industry as R.O.B. and Duck Hunt. A Virtual Boy character represents Nintendo’s biggest failure in history, which I highly doubt Sakurai would want to add. Nester, while having the same impact as Duck Hunt and R.O.B. with the magazine of Nintendo Power, is not as globally recognized in Japan/Europe for Sakurai to consider it. In a process of elimination, the only newcomer choice left that I feel would best fill in the historical surprise role would be a character based on Nintendo’s beginning, Hanafuda.
Hanafuda (Translated as “flower cards”) are Japanese playing cards used to play a multitude of games like Koi Koi and Go-Stop. This was the very first product manufactured by Nintendo way back in 1889. Before the debut of Hanafuda, many kinds of playing cards were banned in Japan due to the Western influences of Japanese card games and the surge of Christian missionaries from Europe.
For the Hanafuda creator, Fusajiro Yamauchi, to get around the card problem, he would have to replace the numbers in his cards with Japanese painted art that represented the twelve months of the year. The Japanese government banned Hanafuda eventually. But around the late 1800s, playing cards were no longer banned. Yamauchi could finally create a legal business to sell his Hanafuda products, creating a new company, Nintendo Koppai (The original name of Nintendo before it was simplified decades later.)
The Hanafuda cards by Nintendo grew to become a huge hit in Japan, which led to partnerships with Disney and developing other classic Japanese/Western card games for their business. The experience Nintendo had with selling Hanafuda eventually led them forming a VERY successful business in toys, and eventually producing a business for video games that Nintendo is globally known for today.
With Hanafuda playing a MAJOR key role in Nintendo’s history, Sakurai might consider the idea of creating an original character heavily influenced by Hanafuda for the next historical surprise newcomer. Hanafuda might not be very video game related as G&W, R.O.B., and Duck Hunt, but I feel that its significant importance to Nintendo would be enough for Sakurai to be comfortable with the idea.
So, how can you form a character out of playing cards? There are MANY possible solutions to this:
1. Using Napoleon from Nintendo’s most famous Hanafuda deck.
With the Daitouryou deck featuring Napoleon being the most popular Hanafuda variant, Sakurai could use this historical figure as the basis for the Hanafuda character.
2. Using the tengu from Nintendo's second most popular Hanafuda's deck.
Although this variant of the Hanafuda deck is not as popular as the Napoleon one, the tengu has one advantage that Napoleon does not have. One, tengus being more significant to the origin of Nintendo and Hanafuda in general. Two, the tengu’s Japanese cultural relations that would fit in more than a French emperor using Japanese cards for battle.
3. Going more out-there and giving the Hanafuda deck limbs for movement.
This solution is a very unlikely scenario, but giving a Hanafuda deck arms and legs would better fit in Smash with the Hanafuda character having a crazy wacky design.
What would be the moveset theme and playstyle for a Hanafuda character be? To get a general grasp of the idea I will explain it in a Smash 4 project proposal way:
A Hanafuda character would be a very unique fighter with it utilizing hanafuda cards to summon environmental objects, tools, and animals from the card art as the primary form of attacking. Its playstyle would involve long-range summoning attacks to keep opponents at bay.
(Major credit and props to @Pacack for creating this moveset)
Entrance Animation: General outline of character appears first, followed by the outline of the details, ending with Hanafuda being painted in. (Referencing that all of the hanafuda cards were originally handcrafted by painting onto mulberry tree bark) OR A hanafuda card box drops from the sky and opens to release a Hanafuda character.
Properties: Height is roughly between Charizard’s and Samus’ heights. About as wide as Snake or Link at the widest point. Is somewhat lighter than Robin.
Jab Combo: Hits with pine branch for small damage. Only an AA combo, rather than an AAA combo. Does approximately 4% damage for the first hit and 6% for the second. (Based off of basic pine cards from the December suit, only a double combo because there are only two commons in said suit)
Side-Tilt: Kicks the ground and sends a flurry of maple leaves forward. Has good range and may trip the opponent. Does only 1% damage per leaf, but there are several leaves. Does not have the best knockback. (Based off of the October Maple leaf commons)
Up-Tilt: Waves some bush clover branches in a sweeping motion over his head (from front to back). Decen knockback that can be used for combos. Does about 9% damage. (Based off of the July bush clover commons)
Down-Tilt: Causes a small peony bush to sprout directly in front of Hanafuda (butterflies fly out from it as well, but do not do damage or interact with the opponent). Sends opponents almost directly upwards. Does approximately 11% damage and good knockback, but has some frame lag. (Based off of the June peony commons)
Dash Attack: Pulls out a chrysanthemum bouquet and swings it as he dashes (Based off of the September chrysanthemums)
Up Smash: Thrusts an umbrella into the air and opens it (as it opens, a frog comes out for purely for humor’s sake). Does good damage and knockback, but has some beginning lag. (Based off of Rain Man’s umbrella and frog)
Side Smash: Swings a fairly bulky paulownia branch forward at the opponent. Heavy damage and knockback. (Based off of the January paulownias)
Down Smash: Makes tall susuki grass sprout from the ground on one side of him and a small willow tree on the other. The grass sends opponents diagonally up and away from Hanafuda, while the willow simply hits them upwards. (Based off of the susuki grass and willow common cards)
Neutral Aerial: Hanafuda spins around (somewhat like Zelda's or Ness' nairs) in the air and irises fly out of his sleeves. Poor knockback and decent damage, but good range. (Based off of the May irises)
Forward Aerial: Swings a large plain ribbon in front of him in an arch shape. It can hit easily, but is not very powerful. (Based off of the ribbon cards)
Back Aerial: Snaps a large plain ribbon behind him like a whip. Hits very hard and with good range, but is extremely difficult to sweetspot. (Based off of the ribbon cards)
Up Aerial: Butterflies fly out from out of Hanafuda’s sleeves and go straight upwards. They are hard to sweetspot, but they provide a decent killing move. Does only 3% damage and minimal knockback when not sweetspotted, but does good damage with great knockback when they do.
Down Aerial: Hits whatever is in front of him with a plank from an eight plank bridge. Has spiking properties. (Based off of the May “animal” card)
Neutral Special: Throws poetry sake cup at the opponent. Does surprisingly high damage, but is very small and difficult to hit opponents with. (Based off of the September poetry sake cup “animal” wildcard)
Side Special: Summons a boar, deer, and butterflies that run quickly as a herd across the stage until they disappears. High damage and knockback, but can be easily avoided, as they will only run straight. (Based off of the July, October, and June animal cards and Ino-Shika-Cho group.)
Up Special: Summons multiple types of birds that fly sporadically upwards and grabs onto a crane that lifts Hanafuda about as efficiently as Pit’s up special. Damage done to opponents depends on the birds that hit them. (Based off of the various animal cards of January, February, April, August, and November.)
Down Special: Holds up the jinmaku (camp curtain) to absorb enemy projectiles. Does not deflect or heal the user. (based off of the March “bright” card)
Grab: Wisteria vines shoot out from Hanafuda's sleeves and ensnare the opponent. (based off of the wisteria cards)
Grab-Pummel: The vines repeatedly hit the opponent.
Forward Throw: Hanafuda throws the opponent with the vines and whips them quickly.
Back Throw: Hanafuda throws the opponent over his shoulder.
Up Throw: Hanafuda throws his opponent directly over his head and smacks him with the blue ribbon. (Reference to the blue ribbons)
Down Throw: Hanafuda releases his opponent and slaps them into the ground with the poetry ribbon. (Reference to the red poetry ribbons)
Final Smash: Summons Chinese Phoenix which attacks the entire stage with fire. The stage’s background becomes red with a completely white circle as the moon as this is happening. (Reference to the August and December Bright cards)
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Entrance Animation: General outline of character appears first, followed by the outline of the details, ending with Hanafuda being painted in. (Referencing that all of the hanafuda cards were originally handcrafted by painting onto mulberry tree bark) OR A hanafuda card box drops from the sky and opens to release a Hanafuda character.
Properties: Height is roughly between Charizard’s and Samus’ heights. About as wide as Snake or Link at the widest point. Is somewhat lighter than Robin.
Jab Combo: Hits with pine branch for small damage. Only an AA combo, rather than an AAA combo. Does approximately 4% damage for the first hit and 6% for the second. (Based off of basic pine cards from the December suit, only a double combo because there are only two commons in said suit)
Side-Tilt: Kicks the ground and sends a flurry of maple leaves forward. Has good range and may trip the opponent. Does only 1% damage per leaf, but there are several leaves. Does not have the best knockback. (Based off of the October Maple leaf commons)
Up-Tilt: Waves some bush clover branches in a sweeping motion over his head (from front to back). Decen knockback that can be used for combos. Does about 9% damage. (Based off of the July bush clover commons)
Down-Tilt: Causes a small peony bush to sprout directly in front of Hanafuda (butterflies fly out from it as well, but do not do damage or interact with the opponent). Sends opponents almost directly upwards. Does approximately 11% damage and good knockback, but has some frame lag. (Based off of the June peony commons)
Dash Attack: Pulls out a chrysanthemum bouquet and swings it as he dashes (Based off of the September chrysanthemums)
Up Smash: Thrusts an umbrella into the air and opens it (as it opens, a frog comes out for purely for humor’s sake). Does good damage and knockback, but has some beginning lag. (Based off of Rain Man’s umbrella and frog)
Side Smash: Swings a fairly bulky paulownia branch forward at the opponent. Heavy damage and knockback. (Based off of the January paulownias)
Down Smash: Makes tall susuki grass sprout from the ground on one side of him and a small willow tree on the other. The grass sends opponents diagonally up and away from Hanafuda, while the willow simply hits them upwards. (Based off of the susuki grass and willow common cards)
Neutral Aerial: Hanafuda spins around (somewhat like Zelda's or Ness' nairs) in the air and irises fly out of his sleeves. Poor knockback and decent damage, but good range. (Based off of the May irises)
Forward Aerial: Swings a large plain ribbon in front of him in an arch shape. It can hit easily, but is not very powerful. (Based off of the ribbon cards)
Back Aerial: Snaps a large plain ribbon behind him like a whip. Hits very hard and with good range, but is extremely difficult to sweetspot. (Based off of the ribbon cards)
Up Aerial: Butterflies fly out from out of Hanafuda’s sleeves and go straight upwards. They are hard to sweetspot, but they provide a decent killing move. Does only 3% damage and minimal knockback when not sweetspotted, but does good damage with great knockback when they do.
Down Aerial: Hits whatever is in front of him with a plank from an eight plank bridge. Has spiking properties. (Based off of the May “animal” card)
Neutral Special: Throws poetry sake cup at the opponent. Does surprisingly high damage, but is very small and difficult to hit opponents with. (Based off of the September poetry sake cup “animal” wildcard)
Side Special: Summons a boar, deer, and butterflies that run quickly as a herd across the stage until they disappears. High damage and knockback, but can be easily avoided, as they will only run straight. (Based off of the July, October, and June animal cards and Ino-Shika-Cho group.)
Up Special: Summons multiple types of birds that fly sporadically upwards and grabs onto a crane that lifts Hanafuda about as efficiently as Pit’s up special. Damage done to opponents depends on the birds that hit them. (Based off of the various animal cards of January, February, April, August, and November.)
Down Special: Holds up the jinmaku (camp curtain) to absorb enemy projectiles. Does not deflect or heal the user. (based off of the March “bright” card)
Grab: Wisteria vines shoot out from Hanafuda's sleeves and ensnare the opponent. (based off of the wisteria cards)
Grab-Pummel: The vines repeatedly hit the opponent.
Forward Throw: Hanafuda throws the opponent with the vines and whips them quickly.
Back Throw: Hanafuda throws the opponent over his shoulder.
Up Throw: Hanafuda throws his opponent directly over his head and smacks him with the blue ribbon. (Reference to the blue ribbons)
Down Throw: Hanafuda releases his opponent and slaps them into the ground with the poetry ribbon. (Reference to the red poetry ribbons)
Final Smash: Summons Chinese Phoenix which attacks the entire stage with fire. The stage’s background becomes red with a completely white circle as the moon as this is happening. (Reference to the August and December Bright cards)
The only big competition a Hanafuda character will have to face for a historical surprise addition would be a character based on Nintendo toys made in the 1960s. Of all the potential candidates that represent an integral part of Nintendo’s long history, a 1960s toy character makes the most sense after Hanafuda’s addition. Although, without a definitive mascot or character to represent these toys, creating a character out of 1960s toys might be harder for Sakurai to imagine and he might go with Hanafuda instead. Ultimately, who he chooses as the historical surprise for Smash will depend on what Sakurai sees as having more playful gameplay potential. Both have great potential to me, but Sakurai might have a different perspective otherwise.
With a 1960’s toys character being potential competition, I say a Hanafuda character’s chances are 50/50. I believe there will be a “historical surprise” in this Smash, and the odds of Sakurai creating a character out of Hanafuda are way better now with G&W, R.O.B., and Duck Hunt no longer being major competition. The Hanafuda cards Nintendo made way back are an integral part of the company’s history. I feel such historical importance will be represented via character. With Hanafuda being distinct culturally and providing gameplay potential as a card summoner, I feel confident in banking on a Hanafuda character for Smash Switch.
With Vergeben’s Simon Belmont/Ridley leak on Gamefaqs having notable credibility, I figured that I would analyze Simon again. What is the main reason Sakurai wanted to add a Konami character in Smash Switch, despite the company’s incredibly awful treatment to Kojima during their restructure? I can only think of five possible reasons, one of them being personal impact. Sakurai has personal history with Castlevania since the vert first game on the NES, based on the statement he gave in the Sakurai x Nomura interview:
“For me personally, it was the year 1986, when games like The Legend of Zelda and Castlevania were released, and I experienced physically interactive games. They had a big impact on me.”
I feel that such personal impact with this iconic franchise would tempt him to consider a Castlevania character. Second, Simon's potentially massive ballot popularity. I have seen Simon Belmont constantly requested and campaigned in online forums since the ballot creation. Simon’s amount of votes could have convinced Sakurai enough at least consider the idea thoroughly. Third, the move-set potential Simon offers. Simon has a distinct weapon not primarily used by other Smash characters, which would be his whip. That and his assortment of different weapons like the throwing axe, holy water, and boomerang could have tempted Sakurai to make him playable.
Fourth, pure will. I think there would be no way Konami characters would be a consideration to Sakurai without getting past the Konami Kojima treatment. I feel two things would play into this. One, the strong likelihood that Kojima would want Snake back in Smash. Even back in Smash 4, he still wanted Snake to be in the game despite not being contacted by Sakurai to do negotiations. Metal Gear Solid is still Kojima’s baby, and I cannot imagine an event where Kojima would not want it to happen even in the hard circumstances. If Sakurai contacted him primarily for permission, Kojima would still say yes and possibly help Sakurai with his anger with Konami.
Fifth and most importantly, Sakurai wanting to have Smash be the #1 fighting game roster ever. Sakurai has managed to create an unbelievable roster for Smash 4 thanks to the third-party additions like Sonic, Megaman, Pac-Man, Ryu, Cloud, all big gaming icons in a single fighting game. With Smash 4 in specific, he wanted the 3DS/Wii U installment to be the best character game in the world. If he wanted to fill in the remaining bases for big third-parties like he stated in a Nintendo Dream interview, then he will have to get past Konami’s treatment and try to negotiate one of Konami’s big icons to truly make Smash the number one character game in the world.
In my perspective, with Konami’s restructuring in 2016 when the Smash Switch project plan was created, they would still be open and fair with the negotiation of Simon Belmont. Around this time, they previously brought a majority of their old library via Wii U eShop consistently throughout the years when other third-parties couldn’t, allowed their titles to be part of the NES Mini lineup, and had a Castlevania anime in production in 2016. (If Vergeben’s information is anything to go by.) I personally think in 2016, Konami was free and available to make profitable business deals with Nintendo and Sakurai. All of these factors create an small opening in which Simon Belmont’s inclusion in Smash Bros. is very possible. This is just my theory though to explain how an addition like Simon came to be.
Sora is one of the most interesting candidates to analyze the chances for in Smash Switch. I know it is easy to dismiss the possibility of Sora getting in the game with Disney fully owning the rights to Sora/Kingdom Hearts, but I think there is more favoring Sora than some people might think. I have gained an unusual amount of confidence for Sora being in Smash Switch and I cannot let go of him in my predictions, so I might as well explain.
One notable positive in his favor is Sora likely ranking massively high on the Smash ballot. Back when the ballot voting period started, I saw a colossal amount of fans campaigning for Sora on social media platforms such as Twitter. The support is MOST apparent on YouTube, where Kingdom Hearts YouTubers would consistently encourage people to vote for Sora on the ballot. I have seen Sora campaigned more than any other third-party voted in the West, that I would not be so surprised if he was the #1 ballot choice voted in the region of North America. Sora's demand likely surpasses far more than other Square candidates (aside from maybe Geno), and those amount of votes will definitely get Sakurai’s attention to consider Sora for Smash.
The other matter to consider is Sakurai’s current relationship with Square Enix and Nomura. Sakurai has been notably close with Tetsuya Nomura many times ever since Cloud’s reveal in Smash 4, from the Creator interview regarding Cloud’s reveal in Smash, Nintendo Dream interview briefly discussing Cloud’s inclusion to Sakurai’s recent statement he made about Nomura for KH’s 15th anniversary. Sakurai is definitely aware of KH and at least enjoys playing the KH games, based on his participation of the latter event. He would also be aware of the possible licensing issues when thinking about Sora. But, there are noteworthy statements from Sakurai in the Nintendo Dream Smash interview that makes me think Sakurai would willingly go for Sora:
*Taken from Part 2 of the Creator interview.
Sakurai: Oh, is that so? But really, when you take a step back and look at it, when you see all of these different characters in the same place, Smash is pretty crazy. I suppose that’s pretty ridiculous of me to say, though, given that I’m the creator (laughs).
Nomura: Whether it’s crazy or not, you’ve assembled quite a number of characters.
Sakurai: Honestly, when we revealed Solid Snake for Brawl, I thought, “There’s no way we’ll be able to stage a bigger surprise than this.” But, as a creator, you just keep making more while trying to surprise and delight your audience as much as possible.
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Nomura: The element of surprise is very important.
Note the bolded, italic statement. Given the openness of Sakurai doing another collaboration with Nomura…:
*Also taken from Part 2 of the Creator interview.
Interviewer: Would you like to make another game together in the future, or do another collaboration?
Sakurai: It seems like it would be difficult to decide who would have what role, though.
Nomura: If we were to work together, I think I’d leave most everything up to Mr. Sakurai.
…and noting Sakurai’s relationship with Square Enix at the time:
*Taken from the Nintendo Dream interview.
Sakurai: Those third-party characters are huge icons of their respective companies, so such an opportunity is hard to come by. That being said, now that Smash has grown into a well-known franchise, the creators recognize the merits of allowing us to use their characters, so negotiations have tended to go rather smoothly.
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All of these statements from Sakurai lead me to believe that there is a real possibility of Sakurai negotiating Sora with Nomura right after doing an interview with him and Sakurai notcing Sora's high popularity in the ballot. With how ambitious Sakurai is with adding surprise fighters such as Cloud, Villager, and Wii Fit Trainer, if he wants to keep pushing for surprises in this new Smash (Especially with third-party choices), then choosing someone like Sora that would be seen as impossible for a hardcore speculating audience would definitely be the next transitional step of surprise. With Sakurai having the experience of negotiating with Square Enix with Cloud, the game history KH carries with the franchise with being critically and financially successful (Selling over 20 million units total as of this 2014 statement), Sora’s distinct upbeat appeal/characterization, and the moveset potential he has with powers provided in his games (KH3 especially with the introduction of Keyblade transformations, Sora seriously feels like a choice that Sakurai would pick next.
In terms of Nintendo's relationship with Disney, their relationship is pretty strong with games like Disney Art Academy and Disney Magical World 1+2, both of which are published by Nintendo. For Disney Art Academy in particular, the game was developed Headstrong Games, whose franchise is owned by Nintendo, of which franchise has gotten representation in Smash 4 in the form of a trophy and music (Swan Lesson). Nintendo and Disney also worked together to market 3DS home menu themes, Disney 3DSes, Disney Channel advertising their games such as Splatoon, to hosting tournaments of Nintendo games on Disney XD. This truly shows how close Nintendo's relationship with Disney actually is.
Disney would definitely know how profitable Sora appearing in one of the biggest fighting games would be, that is one of the biggest opportunities they would have in establishing a great profit while also forming an even closer relationship with Nintendo. With the relationship Nintendo and Disney have grown up to this point, they would have an easier time adjusting the amount of profit both companies would earn for both of their benefits, that includes Sakurai.
For Kingdom Hearts, there have been multiple instances where KH collaborations in other franchises have been more frequent, like Sora appearing in a recent FF title (World of Final Fantasy) and Mickey’s KH costume in Disney Infinity. These situations have shown Disney’s recent growing openness towards KH content appearing in other games. But, the person who will have the biggest influence and convince Disney to have Sora become a playable fighter in Smash would be none other than Tetsuya Nomura himself.
There is not one doubt in my mind that Nomura would love to see another of his creations become a fighter in Smash. With Nomura’s enormous reputation in the gaming industry and his 16-year long gaming relationship with Disney ever since creating KH1, I do feel Nomura alone could convince Disney that Sora appearing in a party fighting game like Smash would be a great idea.
I see the process of negotiating being as simple as:
1. Sakurai thinking about third-party surprises for Smash, becomes willing to negotiate Sora for Smash.
2. Talking to Nomura for creator permission, possibly asking Square Enix's permission too.
3. Talking to Disney for a Sora negotiation, negotiating possible business deals that would benefit both Nintendo and Disney, with Square Enix and Nomura possibly aiding the negotiation for JP to EN communication purposes. Given Nintendo's relationship with Disney now, I see business deals going rather smoothly, rather than ending up in chaos.
4. Making a finalized deal and developing Sora for Smash.
Everything I say here is what gets me unusually confident about Sora in the same way I felt Bayonetta was a very possible choice when Smash 4 DLC was announced. I think this will be Sakurai’s next wild-card choice for a third-party after Cloud. I feel Disney is LESS of an issue than people initially think. Sora has a legitimate shot and is arguably in the best position now to get in Smash Switch.
To me, Sora is one of the most interesting characters to predict because his pros and cons provide so much complexity and layers, filled with things would favor or go against his inclusion. Exploring Sora's chances is fun and is like figuring out a difficult puzzle in Professor Layton or sliding the Rubik's cube in a way that has same colors on all sides. Right now, I am craving for that delicious, different perspective.
Arguments:
Disney stopped Dissidia from becoming a KH fighting game:
The reason for the rejection of KH fighting game is not because of Disney's strictness, but because Nomura did not think it was a good idea. This creative decision had nothing to do with Disney having strict control. Even if that was really the case, recent cases of Disney allowing KH content in other Square games have shown Disney's openness of utilizing the KH IP, showing major growth in relationship of Square Enix and Disney. Whatever potentially happened back in Dissidia would no longer be an issue due to that growth.
Disney would not allow Sora to be punched or kicked in a fighting game:
That it is not a problem. Smash Bros. is not a gory fighting game where heads and feet falter off like in Mortal Kombat. That kind of content is something that Disney would have legitimate strictness of because how it would make people perceive their properties. Smash Bros. is of same level of violence as most of the Kingdom Hearts franchise. Smash Bros. is a cartoony fighting party game. Sora being featured in that kind of game is not going to be a major issue.
Disney will be strict when using their actual IPs in Smash:
Even if Disney was strict with allowing Disney characters present but not Sora, there is enough interesting original content in the KH series for Sakurai to get a substantial amount of solid representation of the franchise. As far as Disney powers go, Summons are probably the closest thing, but they act more like side-things rather than being integral to Sora's gameplay like Flow-motion or Keyblade powers. Sora characterization wise, personality wise, and gameplay wise provides enough tools like magic, keyblade moves, and drive forms to be a stand-out and fun character in Smash. Disney content is not integral to implementing Sora correctly.
Disney will have full control of Sora and how he plays out in Smash:
If Disney is going to be stingy about anything, it would be portraying Sora correctly characterization wise, much like with Nintendo when they were concerned about Bowser's characterization in Wreck-it-Ralph. And since Sakurai is about integrating characters in the most faithful way possible, both would have the same goals. In that matter, it is hard for me to imagine a scenario where Sakurai and Disney would fight out hard to choosing every move and manner Sora has to have in Smash.
The advisors of Disney would not be able to translate Sora into Smash gameplay as well as Sakurai. The best they could advise is looking over if Sora looks and feels accurate on a surface level and trust in Sakurai's talent to be able to envision the character well in Smash. Their potential complaints would go as far as accurately portraying the character, just like Square Enix with Cloud's addition. It is very hard to imagine a worse case scenario where Sakurai and Disney have so many creative differences in gameplay.
Both would be addressing feedback for the sake of implementing Sora in Smash in the best way possible. Meeting the potentially high demands of Disney of how Sora should be implemented in Smash would be a great fun challenge for Sakurai. Everything that Sakurai has done in each new Smash game has been stepping up with more surprises that lead to more interesting challenges. Implementing fighting game mechanics in Smash with Ryu, being able to translate a "peaceful" Nintendo character like Villager into a fighter, and the challenge of implementing Bayonetta's powers without having to lose the core aspect of Bayonetta's power of letting out skin while being able to pass the ratings.
The amount of work Sakurai would have to do for Sora to meet Disney's potentially high demand would be one of the greatest challenges Sakurai would have to face, and that would make the inclusion of Sora all the more satisfying when he is finally fully implemented into Smash Switch's gameplay.
There would be other Square Enix characters for competition:
I personally do not see other Square characters like a Dragon Quest character being actual competition. If Sakurai is going to aim for Sora, then it is him or nothing else. I cannot see Sakurai going for an alternate Square option, especially when Sora's degree of popularity likely outnumbers a number of SQ candidates by miles. I feel the third-party choices chosen will be heavily based on top ballot rankings. The only actual obstacles Sora really has is possible licensing issues with Disney.
5/20/2018 Note: Due to learning about Sora's rights and how the process of negotiating Sora would work in the case of Smash with Jason, the obstacles I mentioned regarding Disney being a strict hassle no longer apply. A Disney executive, Vice President and General Manager of Disney Japan, named Justin said this on the matter:
-Has really close ties with Tetsuya Nomura and Shinji Hashimoto.
-From the most pivotal legal standpoint, the copyright of Sora belongs to Disney.
-Disney cannot leisurely use Sora freely. When using Sora for any type of marketing, Disney always has to ask permission from Tetsuya Nomura and Square Enix themselves to allow the use of Sora's character, whether it be in Disney or Square Enix. They want to make sure Nomura would be 100% comfortable with the idea. They do not want to betray the fans expectations and the notion/theme of Kingdom Hearts.
-This was not the first time Jason was asked about Sora in Smash. Jason and his son are big fans of Smash Bros.
-Jason asked directly to HMK if Sora being in Smash would be something the fans would want. HMK gave many in-depth reasons for Sora possibly being in Smash to Jason.
-Disney would have to get the invitation from Nintendo and have fan-demand to really get the process of Sora being in Smash going. This would also need major approval from Square Enix and Nomura.
-Disney is not very restrictive, but rather very particular. So Disney would not have crazy strict control as people like to say.
-If all those things came together, then Sora in Smash would be something Disney would consider.
-Kingdom Hearts 3 is currently Disney's biggest priority, anything after KH3's development, that is something Disney can seriously consider afterwards.
With Nomura having the final say on KH content appearing on other media, I feel that increases his odds of being chosen for the base game of Smash Switch. I personally think that what Jason said is mostly PR talk that does not say much whether or not Sora is in Smash. I believe that Tetsuya and the higher-ups above Jason would know about Sora actually know that he was negotiated for Smash. He is one of the lower executives that may not know about this information. If he is not in the base game, then I consider his chances of being considered as DLC to be far higher than before. But that all depends on the fans and how much support Sora vocally gets during the Smash Switch hype period.
One notable positive in his favor is Sora likely ranking massively high on the Smash ballot. Back when the ballot voting period started, I saw a colossal amount of fans campaigning for Sora on social media platforms such as Twitter. The support is MOST apparent on YouTube, where Kingdom Hearts YouTubers would consistently encourage people to vote for Sora on the ballot. I have seen Sora campaigned more than any other third-party voted in the West, that I would not be so surprised if he was the #1 ballot choice voted in the region of North America. Sora's demand likely surpasses far more than other Square candidates (aside from maybe Geno), and those amount of votes will definitely get Sakurai’s attention to consider Sora for Smash.
The other matter to consider is Sakurai’s current relationship with Square Enix and Nomura. Sakurai has been notably close with Tetsuya Nomura many times ever since Cloud’s reveal in Smash 4, from the Creator interview regarding Cloud’s reveal in Smash, Nintendo Dream interview briefly discussing Cloud’s inclusion to Sakurai’s recent statement he made about Nomura for KH’s 15th anniversary. Sakurai is definitely aware of KH and at least enjoys playing the KH games, based on his participation of the latter event. He would also be aware of the possible licensing issues when thinking about Sora. But, there are noteworthy statements from Sakurai in the Nintendo Dream Smash interview that makes me think Sakurai would willingly go for Sora:
*Taken from Part 2 of the Creator interview.
Sakurai: Oh, is that so? But really, when you take a step back and look at it, when you see all of these different characters in the same place, Smash is pretty crazy. I suppose that’s pretty ridiculous of me to say, though, given that I’m the creator (laughs).
Nomura: Whether it’s crazy or not, you’ve assembled quite a number of characters.
Sakurai: Honestly, when we revealed Solid Snake for Brawl, I thought, “There’s no way we’ll be able to stage a bigger surprise than this.” But, as a creator, you just keep making more while trying to surprise and delight your audience as much as possible.
Nomura: The element of surprise is very important.
Note the bolded, italic statement. Given the openness of Sakurai doing another collaboration with Nomura…:
*Also taken from Part 2 of the Creator interview.
Interviewer: Would you like to make another game together in the future, or do another collaboration?
Sakurai: It seems like it would be difficult to decide who would have what role, though.
Nomura: If we were to work together, I think I’d leave most everything up to Mr. Sakurai.
…and noting Sakurai’s relationship with Square Enix at the time:
*Taken from the Nintendo Dream interview.
Sakurai: Those third-party characters are huge icons of their respective companies, so such an opportunity is hard to come by. That being said, now that Smash has grown into a well-known franchise, the creators recognize the merits of allowing us to use their characters, so negotiations have tended to go rather smoothly.
All of these statements from Sakurai lead me to believe that there is a real possibility of Sakurai negotiating Sora with Nomura right after doing an interview with him and Sakurai notcing Sora's high popularity in the ballot. With how ambitious Sakurai is with adding surprise fighters such as Cloud, Villager, and Wii Fit Trainer, if he wants to keep pushing for surprises in this new Smash (Especially with third-party choices), then choosing someone like Sora that would be seen as impossible for a hardcore speculating audience would definitely be the next transitional step of surprise. With Sakurai having the experience of negotiating with Square Enix with Cloud, the game history KH carries with the franchise with being critically and financially successful (Selling over 20 million units total as of this 2014 statement), Sora’s distinct upbeat appeal/characterization, and the moveset potential he has with powers provided in his games (KH3 especially with the introduction of Keyblade transformations, Sora seriously feels like a choice that Sakurai would pick next.
In terms of Nintendo's relationship with Disney, their relationship is pretty strong with games like Disney Art Academy and Disney Magical World 1+2, both of which are published by Nintendo. For Disney Art Academy in particular, the game was developed Headstrong Games, whose franchise is owned by Nintendo, of which franchise has gotten representation in Smash 4 in the form of a trophy and music (Swan Lesson). Nintendo and Disney also worked together to market 3DS home menu themes, Disney 3DSes, Disney Channel advertising their games such as Splatoon, to hosting tournaments of Nintendo games on Disney XD. This truly shows how close Nintendo's relationship with Disney actually is.
Disney would definitely know how profitable Sora appearing in one of the biggest fighting games would be, that is one of the biggest opportunities they would have in establishing a great profit while also forming an even closer relationship with Nintendo. With the relationship Nintendo and Disney have grown up to this point, they would have an easier time adjusting the amount of profit both companies would earn for both of their benefits, that includes Sakurai.
For Kingdom Hearts, there have been multiple instances where KH collaborations in other franchises have been more frequent, like Sora appearing in a recent FF title (World of Final Fantasy) and Mickey’s KH costume in Disney Infinity. These situations have shown Disney’s recent growing openness towards KH content appearing in other games. But, the person who will have the biggest influence and convince Disney to have Sora become a playable fighter in Smash would be none other than Tetsuya Nomura himself.
There is not one doubt in my mind that Nomura would love to see another of his creations become a fighter in Smash. With Nomura’s enormous reputation in the gaming industry and his 16-year long gaming relationship with Disney ever since creating KH1, I do feel Nomura alone could convince Disney that Sora appearing in a party fighting game like Smash would be a great idea.
I see the process of negotiating being as simple as:
1. Sakurai thinking about third-party surprises for Smash, becomes willing to negotiate Sora for Smash.
2. Talking to Nomura for creator permission, possibly asking Square Enix's permission too.
3. Talking to Disney for a Sora negotiation, negotiating possible business deals that would benefit both Nintendo and Disney, with Square Enix and Nomura possibly aiding the negotiation for JP to EN communication purposes. Given Nintendo's relationship with Disney now, I see business deals going rather smoothly, rather than ending up in chaos.
4. Making a finalized deal and developing Sora for Smash.
Everything I say here is what gets me unusually confident about Sora in the same way I felt Bayonetta was a very possible choice when Smash 4 DLC was announced. I think this will be Sakurai’s next wild-card choice for a third-party after Cloud. I feel Disney is LESS of an issue than people initially think. Sora has a legitimate shot and is arguably in the best position now to get in Smash Switch.
To me, Sora is one of the most interesting characters to predict because his pros and cons provide so much complexity and layers, filled with things would favor or go against his inclusion. Exploring Sora's chances is fun and is like figuring out a difficult puzzle in Professor Layton or sliding the Rubik's cube in a way that has same colors on all sides. Right now, I am craving for that delicious, different perspective.
Arguments:
Disney stopped Dissidia from becoming a KH fighting game:
The reason for the rejection of KH fighting game is not because of Disney's strictness, but because Nomura did not think it was a good idea. This creative decision had nothing to do with Disney having strict control. Even if that was really the case, recent cases of Disney allowing KH content in other Square games have shown Disney's openness of utilizing the KH IP, showing major growth in relationship of Square Enix and Disney. Whatever potentially happened back in Dissidia would no longer be an issue due to that growth.
Disney would not allow Sora to be punched or kicked in a fighting game:
That it is not a problem. Smash Bros. is not a gory fighting game where heads and feet falter off like in Mortal Kombat. That kind of content is something that Disney would have legitimate strictness of because how it would make people perceive their properties. Smash Bros. is of same level of violence as most of the Kingdom Hearts franchise. Smash Bros. is a cartoony fighting party game. Sora being featured in that kind of game is not going to be a major issue.
Disney will be strict when using their actual IPs in Smash:
Even if Disney was strict with allowing Disney characters present but not Sora, there is enough interesting original content in the KH series for Sakurai to get a substantial amount of solid representation of the franchise. As far as Disney powers go, Summons are probably the closest thing, but they act more like side-things rather than being integral to Sora's gameplay like Flow-motion or Keyblade powers. Sora characterization wise, personality wise, and gameplay wise provides enough tools like magic, keyblade moves, and drive forms to be a stand-out and fun character in Smash. Disney content is not integral to implementing Sora correctly.
Disney will have full control of Sora and how he plays out in Smash:
If Disney is going to be stingy about anything, it would be portraying Sora correctly characterization wise, much like with Nintendo when they were concerned about Bowser's characterization in Wreck-it-Ralph. And since Sakurai is about integrating characters in the most faithful way possible, both would have the same goals. In that matter, it is hard for me to imagine a scenario where Sakurai and Disney would fight out hard to choosing every move and manner Sora has to have in Smash.
The advisors of Disney would not be able to translate Sora into Smash gameplay as well as Sakurai. The best they could advise is looking over if Sora looks and feels accurate on a surface level and trust in Sakurai's talent to be able to envision the character well in Smash. Their potential complaints would go as far as accurately portraying the character, just like Square Enix with Cloud's addition. It is very hard to imagine a worse case scenario where Sakurai and Disney have so many creative differences in gameplay.
Both would be addressing feedback for the sake of implementing Sora in Smash in the best way possible. Meeting the potentially high demands of Disney of how Sora should be implemented in Smash would be a great fun challenge for Sakurai. Everything that Sakurai has done in each new Smash game has been stepping up with more surprises that lead to more interesting challenges. Implementing fighting game mechanics in Smash with Ryu, being able to translate a "peaceful" Nintendo character like Villager into a fighter, and the challenge of implementing Bayonetta's powers without having to lose the core aspect of Bayonetta's power of letting out skin while being able to pass the ratings.
The amount of work Sakurai would have to do for Sora to meet Disney's potentially high demand would be one of the greatest challenges Sakurai would have to face, and that would make the inclusion of Sora all the more satisfying when he is finally fully implemented into Smash Switch's gameplay.
There would be other Square Enix characters for competition:
I personally do not see other Square characters like a Dragon Quest character being actual competition. If Sakurai is going to aim for Sora, then it is him or nothing else. I cannot see Sakurai going for an alternate Square option, especially when Sora's degree of popularity likely outnumbers a number of SQ candidates by miles. I feel the third-party choices chosen will be heavily based on top ballot rankings. The only actual obstacles Sora really has is possible licensing issues with Disney.
5/20/2018 Note: Due to learning about Sora's rights and how the process of negotiating Sora would work in the case of Smash with Jason, the obstacles I mentioned regarding Disney being a strict hassle no longer apply. A Disney executive, Vice President and General Manager of Disney Japan, named Justin said this on the matter:
-Has really close ties with Tetsuya Nomura and Shinji Hashimoto.
-From the most pivotal legal standpoint, the copyright of Sora belongs to Disney.
-Disney cannot leisurely use Sora freely. When using Sora for any type of marketing, Disney always has to ask permission from Tetsuya Nomura and Square Enix themselves to allow the use of Sora's character, whether it be in Disney or Square Enix. They want to make sure Nomura would be 100% comfortable with the idea. They do not want to betray the fans expectations and the notion/theme of Kingdom Hearts.
-This was not the first time Jason was asked about Sora in Smash. Jason and his son are big fans of Smash Bros.
-Jason asked directly to HMK if Sora being in Smash would be something the fans would want. HMK gave many in-depth reasons for Sora possibly being in Smash to Jason.
-Disney would have to get the invitation from Nintendo and have fan-demand to really get the process of Sora being in Smash going. This would also need major approval from Square Enix and Nomura.
-Disney is not very restrictive, but rather very particular. So Disney would not have crazy strict control as people like to say.
-If all those things came together, then Sora in Smash would be something Disney would consider.
-Kingdom Hearts 3 is currently Disney's biggest priority, anything after KH3's development, that is something Disney can seriously consider afterwards.
With Nomura having the final say on KH content appearing on other media, I feel that increases his odds of being chosen for the base game of Smash Switch. I personally think that what Jason said is mostly PR talk that does not say much whether or not Sora is in Smash. I believe that Tetsuya and the higher-ups above Jason would know about Sora actually know that he was negotiated for Smash. He is one of the lower executives that may not know about this information. If he is not in the base game, then I consider his chances of being considered as DLC to be far higher than before. But that all depends on the fans and how much support Sora vocally gets during the Smash Switch hype period.
Layton getting chosen for Smash Switch ultimately depends on how he did in the Smash Ballot. Sakurai will likely use the poll for reference to see which third-party candidates he could add. Fortunately, I think Layton likely ranked in the top 5, at least in the region of Europe. Layton back in Smash 4 speculation was among the most wanted newcomers, going as far being in the top 10 in a VGtribune poll that was sent to Sakurai. I feel very confident that Layton ranked high in the ballot, due to the franchise’s immense popularity in Europe.
Because of his potentially high ballot rank in Europe, I think Sakurai will consider Layton for playability. In terms of moveset potential, he already has a high amount for Sakurai to dance his mind around with, basing on Layton’s gentlemanly characterization and puzzle gameplay elements. Professor Layton is one of the few franchises that helped the DS surge in popularity when the first three games came out, giving Layton the game history needed to qualify for Smash. Level-5 has such a strong relationship with Nintendo for so many years ever since the first Layton game came out, that I feel Level-5 and Nintendo would definitely agree on the idea of the professor being playable in Smash. Sakurai and Akihiro were at one point together in a gaming talk show in 2008. One of the moderators asked that he wants him in Smash with his fencing sword, with Sakurai and the audience responding with a positive laugh.
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It certainly shows that Sakurai knows about the franchise and Level-5 in general, and the familiarity brings a nice contribution to Layton’s chances. To note a recent interview, Hino is definitely open for collaborations when he was asked about crossovers with the Layton franchise. This is VERY true, especially with L5’s other franchises like Youkai Watch, which that had a collaboration movie with Kitaro (the most well known, influential manga in Japan), crossed with Final Fantasy in YW3 and FFXIV, and had multiple anime crossovers with the YW mobile game. Although the degree of crossovers Layton had goes as far as Phoenix Wright, Level-5’s recent collaborations almost assures that the potential negotiations for Layton would go VERY smoothly.
What about Professor Layton's move-set potential? While it is true that the Layton games does not involve much combat, there are times in the game when Layton needs to use combat when it is absolutely necessary. Sakurai could definitely bring up his fencing sword for his main use of combat.
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In fencing, there are a lot of defensive and counter strategies involved. Each of the players concentrate hard to strike the opponent’s target area without leaving themselves open to hitting. This can translate to his being a more defensive character that has a variety of ways to counter the opponent. Layton is known to think and solve puzzles in as many ways as he can, so it certainly stays true to his character while keeping him interesting and making him stand out from other characters currently in the game. He is also known to be a skilled craftsman, from creating a slot machine gun, to a catapult, to a hang glider. This things provide a plethora of defensive strategies that would further distinguish Layton as a character.
I have seen many speculators point out that Layton as not being a huge enough gaming icon as an obstacle. I do not see "third-parties" being huge icons being an obstacle for Layton. What Sakurai sees as icons may not match what fans perceive to be. Sakurai thought Bayonetta was pretty significant in the action/hack & slash genre in this Famitsu column:
"When you talk about stylish action games, Bayonetta’s the name that always comes up. But, I don’t think there’s been a game that’s surpassed Bayonetta yet, though."
When Bayonetta was added as Smash 4 DLC years later after the post-Bayonetta column, the issue of her being a huge gaming icon as Cloud, Ryu, Mega Man, and Pac-Man did not impede her into becoming a character. What Sakurai considers as icons is not to the same degree as fans, with him looking into recent franchises that defined genres. Professor Layton is a recent, defining third-party franchise of the DS and 3DS era with 15 million copies sold as of 2013 for the puzzle genre. So Layton meets the qualifications as an icon for the genre he belongs to.
Though that being said, there is one tiny dilemma that I can see happening with these negotiations, that being Level-5 wanting the company to add a Youkai Watch character instead. But at this point of YW’s state in Japan and worldwide, I ultimately feel Layton will be the one chosen, especially when the Layton franchise has seen a recent major resurgence and focus on the franchise in the form of Lady Layton game/anime and the professor’s international recognition in the gaming community.
Because of Layton’s potentially high demand in Europe, the legacy he carried in the DS era, his distinct move-set potential, and the likeliness that Nintendo/Level-5 would agree on the idea of Layton being in Smash, it lines up to him being one of the most likely third party candidates for Smash Switch.
Because of his potentially high ballot rank in Europe, I think Sakurai will consider Layton for playability. In terms of moveset potential, he already has a high amount for Sakurai to dance his mind around with, basing on Layton’s gentlemanly characterization and puzzle gameplay elements. Professor Layton is one of the few franchises that helped the DS surge in popularity when the first three games came out, giving Layton the game history needed to qualify for Smash. Level-5 has such a strong relationship with Nintendo for so many years ever since the first Layton game came out, that I feel Level-5 and Nintendo would definitely agree on the idea of the professor being playable in Smash. Sakurai and Akihiro were at one point together in a gaming talk show in 2008. One of the moderators asked that he wants him in Smash with his fencing sword, with Sakurai and the audience responding with a positive laugh.
It certainly shows that Sakurai knows about the franchise and Level-5 in general, and the familiarity brings a nice contribution to Layton’s chances. To note a recent interview, Hino is definitely open for collaborations when he was asked about crossovers with the Layton franchise. This is VERY true, especially with L5’s other franchises like Youkai Watch, which that had a collaboration movie with Kitaro (the most well known, influential manga in Japan), crossed with Final Fantasy in YW3 and FFXIV, and had multiple anime crossovers with the YW mobile game. Although the degree of crossovers Layton had goes as far as Phoenix Wright, Level-5’s recent collaborations almost assures that the potential negotiations for Layton would go VERY smoothly.
What about Professor Layton's move-set potential? While it is true that the Layton games does not involve much combat, there are times in the game when Layton needs to use combat when it is absolutely necessary. Sakurai could definitely bring up his fencing sword for his main use of combat.
In fencing, there are a lot of defensive and counter strategies involved. Each of the players concentrate hard to strike the opponent’s target area without leaving themselves open to hitting. This can translate to his being a more defensive character that has a variety of ways to counter the opponent. Layton is known to think and solve puzzles in as many ways as he can, so it certainly stays true to his character while keeping him interesting and making him stand out from other characters currently in the game. He is also known to be a skilled craftsman, from creating a slot machine gun, to a catapult, to a hang glider. This things provide a plethora of defensive strategies that would further distinguish Layton as a character.
I have seen many speculators point out that Layton as not being a huge enough gaming icon as an obstacle. I do not see "third-parties" being huge icons being an obstacle for Layton. What Sakurai sees as icons may not match what fans perceive to be. Sakurai thought Bayonetta was pretty significant in the action/hack & slash genre in this Famitsu column:
"When you talk about stylish action games, Bayonetta’s the name that always comes up. But, I don’t think there’s been a game that’s surpassed Bayonetta yet, though."
When Bayonetta was added as Smash 4 DLC years later after the post-Bayonetta column, the issue of her being a huge gaming icon as Cloud, Ryu, Mega Man, and Pac-Man did not impede her into becoming a character. What Sakurai considers as icons is not to the same degree as fans, with him looking into recent franchises that defined genres. Professor Layton is a recent, defining third-party franchise of the DS and 3DS era with 15 million copies sold as of 2013 for the puzzle genre. So Layton meets the qualifications as an icon for the genre he belongs to.
Though that being said, there is one tiny dilemma that I can see happening with these negotiations, that being Level-5 wanting the company to add a Youkai Watch character instead. But at this point of YW’s state in Japan and worldwide, I ultimately feel Layton will be the one chosen, especially when the Layton franchise has seen a recent major resurgence and focus on the franchise in the form of Lady Layton game/anime and the professor’s international recognition in the gaming community.
Because of Layton’s potentially high demand in Europe, the legacy he carried in the DS era, his distinct move-set potential, and the likeliness that Nintendo/Level-5 would agree on the idea of Layton being in Smash, it lines up to him being one of the most likely third party candidates for Smash Switch.
Yes, I am adding Steve now because of Vergeben stating that Minecraft would get representation in some capacity. It is possible that this ends up being one of Verge’s unreliable sources, but honestly, I added this mostly to fill in the newcomer selection. After I narrowed down the potential newcomers and found their chances to be in Smash to be less plausible than I expected, something did not feel right. I had 14 unique newcomers total in my predictions, but it was off-putting. Sakurai has at least added 15 unique newcomers for Brawl & Smash 4. With me having trouble who to choose, Verge’s information on Minecraft representation came out on time for me to fill in the gap I so desired. With Steve potentially being a character in Smash Switch thanks to Vergeben, it had me wondering how did a bizarre decision from Sakurai happen? I will look over that matter with this analysis.
With Minecraft, it has been a massive success. Recently, it was announced that the game had sold over 144 million copies total, making the game the second best selling video game of all time. That is a massive accomplishment, especially when considering Minecraft had surpassed sales for even Nintendo’s best selling games like Super Mario Bros/Wii Sports. With several kids going crazy over Minecraft, it would not surprise me at all if Steve was an insanely voted third-party, being enough in numbers to catch Sakurai’s attention for consideration.
Like with Sora & Disney, it does seem to most people that negotiating a third party with a rival video-game company like Microsoft would be impossible. But that is not the case here. While Microsoft did acquire the rights, the earlier released PS3 version of Minecraft in 2013 was not taken down. In fact, right after the announcement, versions for the PS Vita/PS4 were released right after. With Microsoft being open to the idea of Minecraft being multi-platform, this eventually lead to the Wii U version of the game that came out on December 17th, 2015. This is when the relationship of Mojang/Nintendo had begun to sprout.
The release date came before the roster project plan began for Smash Switch in 2016, which gives ample enough time and a notable opening for Sakurai to take the opportunity to negotiate Steve for Smash. Since Mojang does not have its own division, Microsoft’s Japanese division in Tokyo would be the next nearby place to handle a huge deal. So… why would Sakurai willingly choose Steve for this Smash? Like with Sora, the element of surprise would play a massive, big factor. Not only that, the move-set potential Steve has with a play-style based on Minecraft’s game design of surviving with crafted tools/blocks might have served as an inspiration for Sakurai to add him.
On top of that factor, Minecraft’s popularity in Japan is massive, going as far as famous Japanese YouTubers regularly playing it for subscribers and Minecraft selling greatly on Playstation Vita and Wii U. With the game having a notable Japanese following, unlike many other Western third-party franchises, Steve is one choice Sakurai would not have to worry about, since Minecraft has world-worldwide appeal, with Steve sharing an instant recognizability that a majority of younger gamers will instantly recognize to buy Smash Switch for.
The only “difficult” matter would be translating Steve into Smash smoothly. Minecraft is known to have basic and stiff animations in gameplay. Implementing this truly in Smash might make Steve stand out too much and look awkward on the surface for most players. Would it be better to have Steve smoothly animated? Would it be better to make Steve move truly like in-game? Whichever solution Sakurai will use, I feel that he would not mind either option because whether he chooses stiff or smooth animation, it would still make Steve a distinct addition in Smash. It would be weird seeing Steve with new animations, but I see it as something Sakurai will conclude as something Smash players will quickly get used to.
With all of the pros towards adding a Minecraft character in Smash, it would not surprise me now if these were the reasons why Steve was chosen to be a playable fighter. Researching Steve extensively, I have quickly warmed up to the idea of him being playable, especially when imagining the fun moments that could come from his crafting stage-control play-style. I really hope Vergeben’s source on Minecraft representation in Smash Bros is real. Having Steve alongside music, stages, and a character would be super awesome!
We need to look into the history of clones in Smash before discussing Dixie. Starting with Smash 64, Sakurai was able to create the four hidden characters only with the fact that he was able to reuse some movements and model parts of pre-existing characters from Nintendo and possibly from Dragon King concept of gameplay as well. Although 64’s cast of characters were all unique, it was not until Melee greatly expanded on clones. With Melee, Sakurai added last-minute clones mid-way in development to pad out the roster. This was the only time where Sakurai would come up with clone ideas during development. For Brawl, clone characters like Wolf/Toon Link were planned since the start. Note, for Brawl, Dixie was actually part of the cut character line-up based on file evidence, which indicates Sakurai already finding her merits to being a playable character.
For Smash 4, newcomer clones were not originally planned, but only the alternate costume to last-minute clones due to characteristic differences in attack function. With Sakurai focusing more on unique newcomers in Smash and far less with bringing new planned clones, it makes seeing Dixie becoming playable a smaller possibilty. he only notable way I can see new clones in is through alt. costume to last-minute character or if they are clones planned from the start. I cannot see Dixie Kong originally being an alternate costume for Donkey Kong in Smash Switch as Smash 4 only had only a Dixie color palette for Diddy at best. But, I can see her being planned from the start that gives her a potential shot. That is, IF these two certain factors align:
The first of which is Dixie’s relevance. She hits a middle ground, where her major appearance in Tropical Freeze was too late of a release for her to get considered in Smash 4’s base game and her not being planned with only fan-favorite veterans and third-parties as DLC with not a new clone added, despite Dixie’s major appearance in Tropical Freeze as relevant enough at the time to be considered as a possible DLC choice for Smash 4.
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I have realized now her big appearance in the TF Switch port would potentially not count in this matter, assuming every character had been planned in 2016 when the port likely was not known or developed at the time. It does count on Sakurai seeing Tropical Freeze Wii U as relevant enough at the time of the project proposal in 2016, even in 2014, for me to see Sakurai consider and plan her at most as a low-priority character.
Most importantly, her being in will HEAVILY depend on her ballot popularity. If her number of votes in the ballot are notably really high, I can see that opening a hole for Sakurai, to which he can make an exception on his newcomer selection and add Dixie in Smash as a planned but low priority newcomer clone. It is likely that she gained a notable degree of popularity at the time of the ballot, but whether such popularity will convince Sakurai to make exceptions is fairly uncertain with his current philosophy on newcomers.
It is going to take a miracle, but I am banking on it happening. Sakurai added Wolf way back in Brawl as the last clone character mainly due to high popularity. If Dixie’s potentially high amount of ballot votes is suffice enough for Sakurai to make exceptions with the newcomer selection process, then I can see her added as a planned low-priority clone at best. She has two big obstacles to overcome, but there is a small ray of hope. I see Dixie more as a risky bet than a likely choice for now.
For Smash 4, newcomer clones were not originally planned, but only the alternate costume to last-minute clones due to characteristic differences in attack function. With Sakurai focusing more on unique newcomers in Smash and far less with bringing new planned clones, it makes seeing Dixie becoming playable a smaller possibilty. he only notable way I can see new clones in is through alt. costume to last-minute character or if they are clones planned from the start. I cannot see Dixie Kong originally being an alternate costume for Donkey Kong in Smash Switch as Smash 4 only had only a Dixie color palette for Diddy at best. But, I can see her being planned from the start that gives her a potential shot. That is, IF these two certain factors align:
The first of which is Dixie’s relevance. She hits a middle ground, where her major appearance in Tropical Freeze was too late of a release for her to get considered in Smash 4’s base game and her not being planned with only fan-favorite veterans and third-parties as DLC with not a new clone added, despite Dixie’s major appearance in Tropical Freeze as relevant enough at the time to be considered as a possible DLC choice for Smash 4.
I have realized now her big appearance in the TF Switch port would potentially not count in this matter, assuming every character had been planned in 2016 when the port likely was not known or developed at the time. It does count on Sakurai seeing Tropical Freeze Wii U as relevant enough at the time of the project proposal in 2016, even in 2014, for me to see Sakurai consider and plan her at most as a low-priority character.
Most importantly, her being in will HEAVILY depend on her ballot popularity. If her number of votes in the ballot are notably really high, I can see that opening a hole for Sakurai, to which he can make an exception on his newcomer selection and add Dixie in Smash as a planned but low priority newcomer clone. It is likely that she gained a notable degree of popularity at the time of the ballot, but whether such popularity will convince Sakurai to make exceptions is fairly uncertain with his current philosophy on newcomers.
It is going to take a miracle, but I am banking on it happening. Sakurai added Wolf way back in Brawl as the last clone character mainly due to high popularity. If Dixie’s potentially high amount of ballot votes is suffice enough for Sakurai to make exceptions with the newcomer selection process, then I can see her added as a planned low-priority clone at best. She has two big obstacles to overcome, but there is a small ray of hope. I see Dixie more as a risky bet than a likely choice for now.
Octolings are characters from Splatoon, debuting as enemies in the Splatoon’s single player campaign. Since Splatoon's big growth of popularity worldwide as a franchise (Especially in Japan), the Octolings have gained a massive fanbase mainly due to their appealing designs, spawning an immense amount of fan art, cosplay, and SFM videos. The Octolings were SO popular, that a colossal number of people requested of their playable appearance in the first Splatoon game, way before the Splatoon 2 Octo-Expansion was announced (I do not see the expansion as a positive factor for Octolings due to the release being too late in project planning). This playable Splatoon 1 appearance did not happen, but it goes to show how dedicated Octoling fans are.
This demand would likely lead to Sakurai adding them as Inkling costumes in Smash 5. But, here is the catch. I theorize that Octolings were originally alternate costumes for the Inklings, but with how very distinguished the Octolings play-style are in Splatoon’s story, they became separate characters. Why do I note of the Octoling’s playstyle? I base that on this this article of Sakurai explaining Lucina’s addition over Chrom:
“Initially, I had considered including Lucina as one of Marth's alternate costumes. After all, she has a close relationship with him in FE:A. In such cases, even if two characters' names and voices differ, as long as they function the same way, I assign them as alternate costumes. The Wii Fit Trainers, Villagers, and Robin are examples of this setup.
However, even though Lucina shares her physical stats and techniques with Marth, the characteristics of their attacks differ. When two such similar characters function in an even slightly different manner, I give them a separate spot on the roster since that will affect battle records and whatnot. In that sense, you could say she was very lucky to join the fray!”
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Octolings function and attack differently from Inklings in that their Elite counterparts are faster, more resilient, and deal more damage than regular Inklings. Since Octolings function different from Inklings, I feel that it will be one of the main reasons why Octolings will become separate fighters. But the biggest reason I think this decision could be made is because of the potential for unique differences.
Examining the first Splatoon’s roster of weapons alone, there is a gigantic, distinct selection of weapons to choose from that not even the Inklings cramming a fraction of the weapons in one moveset in Smash would be able to fill the entire gap out of. The options could entice Sakurai to make them separate and play around with weapons that Inklings are not utilizing. To share an example, here are multiple ways that Octolings can be differentiated:
-Octolings utilizing the faster Inkbrush, with Inklings having the slower Splat Roller.
-Octolings utilizing the quicker reloading multi-Burst Bomb, with Inklings having the standard Splat Bomb.
-Octolings utilizing the quick-charging Bamboozler 14, with Inklings using the standard Splat charger.
-Octolings utilizing the high rate Splash-o-matic, with Inklings using the standard Splattershot.
Basically, Octolings would have a more aggressive, quicker playstyle than Inklings. Of course, there is the other possibility that the changes would be minor and disappointing like with Dark Pit and Lucina in Smash 4. But noting Sakurai’s quote about “similar characters function in an even slightly different manner”, such minor differences will make them separate and different enough to warrant their own spot regardless. There is also the possibility that they could stay as alternate costumes too, but I doubt that with what Sakurai has said about alt. to character scenarios. The possibility of Octolings becoming unplanned newcomer clones is very strong I feel.
This demand would likely lead to Sakurai adding them as Inkling costumes in Smash 5. But, here is the catch. I theorize that Octolings were originally alternate costumes for the Inklings, but with how very distinguished the Octolings play-style are in Splatoon’s story, they became separate characters. Why do I note of the Octoling’s playstyle? I base that on this this article of Sakurai explaining Lucina’s addition over Chrom:
“Initially, I had considered including Lucina as one of Marth's alternate costumes. After all, she has a close relationship with him in FE:A. In such cases, even if two characters' names and voices differ, as long as they function the same way, I assign them as alternate costumes. The Wii Fit Trainers, Villagers, and Robin are examples of this setup.
However, even though Lucina shares her physical stats and techniques with Marth, the characteristics of their attacks differ. When two such similar characters function in an even slightly different manner, I give them a separate spot on the roster since that will affect battle records and whatnot. In that sense, you could say she was very lucky to join the fray!”
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Octolings function and attack differently from Inklings in that their Elite counterparts are faster, more resilient, and deal more damage than regular Inklings. Since Octolings function different from Inklings, I feel that it will be one of the main reasons why Octolings will become separate fighters. But the biggest reason I think this decision could be made is because of the potential for unique differences.
Examining the first Splatoon’s roster of weapons alone, there is a gigantic, distinct selection of weapons to choose from that not even the Inklings cramming a fraction of the weapons in one moveset in Smash would be able to fill the entire gap out of. The options could entice Sakurai to make them separate and play around with weapons that Inklings are not utilizing. To share an example, here are multiple ways that Octolings can be differentiated:
-Octolings utilizing the faster Inkbrush, with Inklings having the slower Splat Roller.
-Octolings utilizing the quicker reloading multi-Burst Bomb, with Inklings having the standard Splat Bomb.
-Octolings utilizing the quick-charging Bamboozler 14, with Inklings using the standard Splat charger.
-Octolings utilizing the high rate Splash-o-matic, with Inklings using the standard Splattershot.
Basically, Octolings would have a more aggressive, quicker playstyle than Inklings. Of course, there is the other possibility that the changes would be minor and disappointing like with Dark Pit and Lucina in Smash 4. But noting Sakurai’s quote about “similar characters function in an even slightly different manner”, such minor differences will make them separate and different enough to warrant their own spot regardless. There is also the possibility that they could stay as alternate costumes too, but I doubt that with what Sakurai has said about alt. to character scenarios. The possibility of Octolings becoming unplanned newcomer clones is very strong I feel.
*Geno analysis coming soon.
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On No Smash 4 Veteran Cuts
I feel Sakurai has the skills to add ALL veterans from Smash 4 for Smash Switch. Sakurai really hates cuts. Even when "characters have no future" played a factor into Lucas and Wolf's exclusion in Smash 4's base roster, the cuts he made were as minimal as possible, excluding characters heavily based on transformation and the ones based on technical limitations while keeping MOST of the unique characters. With the experience Sakurai has now and the 3DS limitations no longer being an issue, there is the real possibility that everyone from Smash 4 could return.
On Extra Characters Wolf, Dixie Kong, and Octolings
I see Smash Switch paralleling Smash 4 and Brawl in a sense with one veteran and two new extra clones as the last characters developed. Only this time, this is not all three clones being alt. to character situations like in Smash 4. Wolf and Dixie Kong are planned semi-clones developed if extra time allows like in Brawl, while Octolings would be the only alternate costume to character situation created mid-way in development. Wolf, Dixie Kong, and Octolings are extra characters that could be made if development time allows it.
Honorable Mentions:
1. Captain Toad- For being probably one of the most probable Mario candidates. However due to his series not being of the same success as Mario spinoffs like WarioWare and Yoshi's Island I do not think he will make the cut. For an in-depth analysis about my opinion on his chances, look here.
2. Doom Guy- For his game being acknowledged by Sakurai as an important milestone in FPS history. Could possibly negotiate with Bethesda for adding Doom Guy due to the company's recent partnership with Nintendo for the NX back in 2016, but I doubt will happen. Doom Guy feels like a choice that Sakurai would think about more when the base game roster is done. Doom Guy was hardly a popular choice when the Smash 4 ballot took place, and the port was the main reason the suggestions for Doom Guy came in the first place. In that respect, I see Doom Guy's chances to be in the base roster being very low.
3. Crash Bandicoot- Somewhat like Doom Guy's situation, although he likely had big demand when the ballot was active, so he could possibly been seriously considered. I do not see Western third-parties becoming a thing Sakurai will aim for until DLC comes. I personally doubt his addition for the base game, and I think it is more likely he could be chosen as DLC while his demand was notably higher due to the Crash Trilogy Switch announcement.
4. Balloon Fighter- A choice that could happen in note of Iwata, but I see Takamaru edging him out due to the many positives I explained in Takamaru's analysis. Could potentially just get stage representation and be a part of Villager's recovery again.
5. Heihachi- Heihachi was one of the very few Namco Bandai characters that got seriously considered for Smash 4, but there was one big issue that Sakurai stated back in July 3rd 2014 that would stop him from being playable:
Sakurai: There were none. We basically thought of all the characters at the start of development. We decided on characters we knew we could make. However, there were a few in consideration, such as Heihachi from “Tekken.”
Interviewer: Heihachi!
Sakurai: That’s right. However, implementing Heihachi’s movement in Smash would be difficult…
But with Sakurai having the experience to develop/integrate a fighting game character into Smash gameplay with Ryu getting in, I feel Sakurai will likely re-consider Heihachi again. It is likely is because of recent leaks showing that Namco Bandai is developing Smash Switch. Sakurai’s experience with Ryu could lead him to comfortably transition into finally making Heihachi playable.
However, it is still a huge gamble whether or not such implementation/planning of Heihachi in Smash gameplay will be successful. The implementation of four buttons for each limb could prove to be a complicated matter far more difficult to faithfully and naturally implement than setting Ryu's light and heavy attacks right using light button tapping for light attacks/longer button tapping for heavy attacks. If he cannot find a solution to faithfully put Tekken mechanics for Heihachi in Smash in the same way as Street Fighter for Ryu during the roster planning phases, he will likely be rejected again. The possibility of him being regularly implemented and not implement the four button mechanic is very low.
Heihachi has the pros of having game history with the Tekken franchise being a long-running success, his potential as a fighter with utilizing 3D space for a stand-out play-style, and Namco Bandai likely favoring his addition. He would not need fan-demand to be considered and is mostly a special case like Pac-Man, but whether or not Sakurai is willing to implement him and Tekken mechanics into Smash gameplay will be the ultimate deciding factor to making him a playable character. I am not banking on that happening.
6. Decidueye- See analysis for Lycanroc.
7. Celica- For being a possible newcomer Sakurai could develop out of his love for Fire Emblem. Celica is in a good position to be considered by Sakurai for Smash Switch, given the time span of Echoes' release date and Smash Switch's possible planning and development. But, I feel the biggest problem with Celica is her lack of unique traits.
Among all of the Fire Emblem characters in Smash, Robin already has the unique theme of magic and swords, as stated in the project proposal in Smash 4. Then there is the problem with FE overrepresentation. Sakurai has stated before in Corrin's inclusion that he was worried about adding too many characters from the franchise, and it was only because of developmental staff assurance that Sakurai was convinced Corrin would make for an interesting fighter. Sakurai will likely take this stance again when considering an FE character like Celica and note the theme similarities of her and Robin.
But, those similarities could put Celica in a position where Sakurai can add her as a lower priority planned semi-clone in the 2016 project plan. She would be a semi-clone in the sense of Wolf, with the different swordplay and the magic available to use like Thunder, Fire, and Seraphim. But ultimately, I think Sakurai will just prioritize the FE Smash 4 line-up and do nothing more.
8. Rayman- For being the most likely Western third-party due to Ubisoft's relationship with Nintendo and ballot popularity, but I feel Rayman will be passed of due to the franchise's lack of notable popularity in Japan. I feel any Western third-party Sakurai will include will be ones that have worldwide popularity, minus a few exceptions like Doom Guy that took the Western game industry by storm. And Rayman's popularity in Japan is minimal, which could affect Sakurai's POV on the character.
9. Mii Mage Class- The one reason I include Mii Mage is that it is the only character archetype to which Smash fans have notably requested to fill in all of the basic fighting archetypes for Mii Fighters to utilize. However, I feel the idea of Mii Mage was thought of long ago way back in Smash 4. Gameplay wise:
-Brawler has a hand to hand/close quarter playstyle.
-Sword fighter has a swordplay/midrange playstyle.
-Gunner has a projectile zoning/long range playstyle.
With all of them fulfilling the three basic play-styles, Sakurai might not find the need to add another Mii class in future Smash games to come. This would be the case, especially when some of Mii Gunner's moves take inspiration from magic users like Robin, Ness, and Zelda With him being possibly content, I think he would rather move on from Miis and prioritize on developing the unique newcomers planned for this game than making something for the sake of filling in a missing archetype.
10. Spring Man- I will be honest with you. I went back and forth on this choice multiple times. I thought that an ARMS character’s best scenario of getting in the game is DLC, but then I went back to him possibly being base game. With ARMs being a new IP from last year, Sakurai would most likely wait until the IP has a notable degree of success before being added in Smash Switch. But, considering the game was announced to be a huge hit on July 2017, there is a chance that Sakurai would look at that news and be comfortable with adding Spring Man, allowing an ARMs character to be in the base game in the middle of Smash Switch’s development to help keep ARMs promotion coming (Noting Nintendo’s competitive support for ARMS as a relevant example). However, I do think this would put Spring Man as a lower priority unique newcomer, in the same sense as Bowser Jr., who was nearly cut from Smash 4’s roster due to time constraints being an obstacle.
This scenario would be a similar situation to Sonic back in Brawl. However, Sonic was added late for very different reasons like immensely high popularity that would call for an urgent development schedule change. Would Spring Man be worth the cost of more development time to get him in the base roster? Or would an ARMS character be something that is better saved as a DLC addition? Perhaps Sakurai’s flexibility and skills for making Smash games will allow a “New IP getting its own character in the middle of development” case to happen. Sakurai could be convinced by Spring Man's potential as see that as one of the primary reasons to add him late in the game. These kinds of additions can happen even if the chances are rare, based on this statement here:
Sakurai: It really depends on the situation. For example, Roy and Robin were included for completely different reasons. It also depends on luck, of course. Industry trends around the time when development begins is a pretty big factor. I started development on Smash for 3DS/ Wii U right after I’d wrapped up Kid Icarus: Uprising, and Fire Emblem Awakening was released one month after Uprising. So what’s popular around the time when I begin designing the game is important. Characters are almost never added after I’ve completed the project plan for Smash.
This statement gives a very small opening, but it gives enough room for Spring Man to be added. Otherwise, Spring Man can still be added as DLC. Spring Man will be in Smash Switch’s roster, it is just a matter of when and if we get Smash Switch DLC at all. In this case, I am banking on Sakurai not having enough development time to implement Spring Man in time for the base roster.
11. Erdrick- For Dragon Quest being one of the biggest Square Enix franchises in Japan, with Dragon Quest III being one of the most influential RPGs. He could possibly be chosen by Sakurai in his own will via special case scenario just like Ryu. Though, as I stated before, I do feel 3rd parties will be heavily based on ballot popularity, and I cannot imagine Japan heavily voting on a Dragon Quest character in the ballot for Sakurai to consider the idea. Dragon Quest does have as much worldwide popularity for me to see Sakurai consider Erdrick more seriously.
12. Dr. Kawashima- I have thought long and hard about this choice. He has remained in my prediction rosters until now. Even though I think real life issues are no longer an issue, I do not believe he will be in and I accepted that Sakurai will likely not look into Concentration Training to re-consider Kawashima. The only way I can see him in is if the Brain Age series gets a new successful game on the Switch that is not a flop like the 3DS iteration.
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The reason I am speculating hardcore on Smash Switch’s roster is because I wanted to get as many interesting perspectives on newcomers as much as possible so that I may be able assure that one of my newcomer predictions is something I am confident in risking of. Sakurai provides enough criteria through interviews/ e-mails over the years that it hits that sweet spot where it really motivates me to find out what choices could be rejected or accepted.
Predicting the newcomers is not a hard task IMO, aside from perhaps predicting third-parties. All it takes is just straightforward research and connecting the dots to find that one newcomer Sakurai could definitely pick based on certain circumstances like gameplay potential, game critical reception, franchise popularity, clone feasibility, fan requests, etc. Sakurai's surprise factor really keeps Smash speculation an exciting time for me and motivates me to find which surprises could be chosen. It is super fun!
Although I will 100% admit, that there is a great chance that I could easily be wrong on some matters. Even with doing as much research as I can, Sakurai still can surprise me with something new that would change the course of speculation. But if I get a prediction wrong, then I get that wrong. The least I can do is predict more newcomers right than wrong for some degree of bragging rights.
I want to do my best in predicting regardless of the inevitable newcomer that could slam my predictions in half. If you have finished reading the entire roster analysis, in-depth feedback would be greatly appreciated! Do you agree with some of my analyses, and what suggestions do you have to improve my predictions. Let me know. I would love to have a discussion!
Special thanks to @GoldenYuiitusin, @Aurora Jenny, @TCT~Phantom, everyone in the Rate Their Chances thread, everyone in the SG Discord, every support thread of newcomers I am predicting that helped me with research, and everyone else in the Super Smash Bros. for Switch Discussion thread for giving me in-depth feedback on my prediction rosters and providing interesting discussion on each newcomer's chances at being in Smash. I also want to give a massive shoutout to Source Gaming for providing valuable sources for Smash information. Without the website, I would not have been able to go this far in Smash speculation.
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