A Loophole in Predicting Updates with Amiibo

Amiibo_Update_2.jpg

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Since the publishing of Predicting Updates with Amiibo, I’ve seen a number of people interpret the theory in a number of different ways. The most common interpretation has been that any release date for an amiibo means that a DLC update must come before that time. This is not the case.

Predicting Updates with Amiibo states that Nintendo must have functionality for an amiibo in the game files before their release date, and Nintendo typically patches in functionality alongside major content updates. Historically, this is still the case. There are now three exceptions to this rule: the 3.1.0, 6.1.1, and 8.1.0 updates. Each of these updates patched in functionality for upcoming amiibo months before their intended release date.

The Hero and Joker amiibo are already in the game as of 8.1.0, and fully functioning. Thus, we cannot predict when the next patch is based on their amiibo figure’s intended release date. Now that we have had two amiibo releases in a row that follow this trend, it’s possible that Nintendo has caught onto this theory and is intentionally packaging the amiibo functionality into small updates to throw off the update predictions. I think this is a reasonable assumption, but we’ll have to keep an eye on the rest of the Fighter’s Pass amiibo and their release dates to be sure.

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Amiibo Doctor

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Hey! So I just wanted to post a comment real quick to respond to a particular line in this post.
The Hero and Joker amiibo are already in the game as of 8.1.0, and fully functioning. Thus, we cannot predict when the next patch is based on their amiibo figure’s intended release date.
I've worked since the end of last year to document the release dates of amiibo figures and character releases dates to see how in-close proximity each are to one another. It eventually got a point where I realized that each amiibo wave released would release within around 2 weeks of a character release. Now granted, 2 weeks doesn't happen every time (and is just a rough estimate of the average) and the largest gap between dates has been 18 days, but nothing has gone above that threshold yet.

So, I decided to take all of those dates, convert them to a universal scale, and make a math equation based on the data!

Turn out the r and r^2 values are near 1! What this basically means is, there is a good degree of relationship between both dates. So, using the equation, it's possible to approximate actual DLC release dates using just amiibo dates! Now granted, it is just math, so again, it's more so about precision rather than accuracy. And it's not guaranteed that every prediction will be right. But, it exists!

I only wanted to post about this to show that it is indeed possible! Here's the data chart I have as well!
 
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Hey! So I just wanted to post a comment real quick to respond to a particular line in this post.


I've worked since the end of last year to document the release dates of amiibo figures and character releases dates to see how in-close proximity each are to one another. It eventually got a point where I realized that each amiibo wave released would release within around 2 weeks of a character release. Now granted, 2 weeks doesn't happen every time (and is just a rough estimate of the average) and the largest gap between dates has been 18 days, but nothing has gone above that threshold yet.

So, I decided to take all of those dates, convert them to a universal scale, and make a math equation based on the data!

Turn out the r and r^2 values are near 1! What this basically means is, there is a good degree of relationship between both dates. So, using the equation, it's possible to approximate actual DLC release dates using just amiibo dates! Now granted, it is just math, so again, it's more so about precision rather than accuracy. And it's not guaranteed that every prediction will be right. But, it exists!

I only wanted to post about this to show that it is indeed possible! Here's the data chart I have as well!
Yes, I saw your work (I think it was this) a few weeks ago! I had a conversation on Twitter about this with somebody (might've been you idk).
Our theories are pretty similar - the key difference is that mine hinges on whether or not functionality has been patched into the game, which means we can predict it ahead of time. Yours has value too-it's totally reasonable that Nintendo would be putting out Smash updates/amiibo releases on a cycle, and the release of the DLC/amiibo would be the end of that cycle.
 
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Updates were never really a factor in predicting DLC character additions, just the release of amiibo. It's more obvious that the correlation between amiibo releases is with Fighters specifically.
 
Updates were never really a factor in predicting DLC character additions, just the release of amiibo. It's more obvious that the correlation between amiibo releases is with Fighters specifically.
The reason I said updates and not fighters is because the functionality still has to be patched in, regardless of if that patch includes a fighter or not
 
Yes, I saw your work (I think it was this) a few weeks ago! I had a conversation on Twitter about this with somebody (might've been you idk).
Our theories are pretty similar - the key difference is that mine hinges on whether or not functionality has been patched into the game, which means we can predict it ahead of time. Yours has value too-it's totally reasonable that Nintendo would be putting out Smash updates/amiibo releases on a cycle, and the release of the DLC/amiibo would be the end of that cycle.
I mean, in reality, your method is more reliably consistent than just relying on release dates. Mainly because you're depending on literal game data and a more solid timeline. I just didn't know if you knew that stuff could be done, even without that. Anyways, thanks for replying!
 
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