EddyBearr
Smash Lord
Can falcon place in the top 4 at 400+ tournament? The top 1% of the top skill?
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2015 and Beyond: Can Falcon win a national?
- Thread starter KneeJustice
- Start date
Yes. Don't know how, but yes.
You guys are talking about Apex 2015, right?
Apex, Evo, MLG, just any national in general.
Well, definitely not at Apex unless one of the Top 5 plays him.
Equal
Smash Apprentice
If Soft can place Top 8 at Apex, anything can happen.
2015 is promising, as long as the current Falcons (S2J, Wizzy, Gahtzu, Gravy) keep improving at the rate they're proving. Give them a decent bracket and they'll go deep.
2015 is promising, as long as the current Falcons (S2J, Wizzy, Gahtzu, Gravy) keep improving at the rate they're proving. Give them a decent bracket and they'll go deep.
KneeJustice
Smash Rookie
Someone posted a link to this on reddit so I included the link in the OP.
I also apologize for mis-characterizing anyone's posts. I'll be happy to edit anything people are uncomfortable with: just message me.
I see a lot of disgust at 20XX in both these threads which seems fitting as Falcon is arguably the source and whipping boy of the 20XX ideology.
I share this feeling, but the fact is, most people seem to agree that the path forward for Falcon is continually refining and optimizing him technically.
Can Falcon harness 20XX to his advantage?
One disagreement seems to come from how much more Falcon CAN be optimized with some arguing that Falcon has more than enough players (as a percentage of the player-base) to have had an Armada-esque Falcon ascend, while others believe that people generally mis-play Falcon (I'm speaking purely about optimization) as an aggressive character when he really might have more success when played "safe."
In other words, the flashy Falcons like Lord, S2J, and Jeapie are sprinters, not the marathon runners that Hax$ was before his fall (By the way, I tend to think about Hax$ the way Milton portrays Satan in Paradise Lost: a brilliant but tragic figure who made (and keeps making) all the wrong choices).
But another school of thought (which I am partial to as well) seems to suggest that Falcon can only become truly legendary when the player plays the opponent perfectly, making perfect reads. Mango seems to think that this is where Falcon truly shines (hence, perhaps, Falcon's inconsistency).
That suggests that Falcon mains need to get out there and play as many different opponents in as many different regions as possible. I don't think it is a coincidence that M2K was Hax$s main regional competitor, giving rise to the greatest Falcon yet. I wonder if part of S2J's regional success has been his ability to dominate top-level competitors in SoCal but not have as firm a lock on other regions, players and styles?
Losing a lot is frustrating though. And that suggests that attitude is essential for Falcon. He must remain disciplined enough to not make poor decisions, or greedy decisions (except when they are most likely to work off conditioning and a read), while also not becoming predictable or getting frustrated or salty when his plentiful weaknesses are exposed. And that seems to be the biggest hurdle, which even Hax$ never overcame.
I also apologize for mis-characterizing anyone's posts. I'll be happy to edit anything people are uncomfortable with: just message me.
I see a lot of disgust at 20XX in both these threads which seems fitting as Falcon is arguably the source and whipping boy of the 20XX ideology.
I share this feeling, but the fact is, most people seem to agree that the path forward for Falcon is continually refining and optimizing him technically.
Can Falcon harness 20XX to his advantage?
One disagreement seems to come from how much more Falcon CAN be optimized with some arguing that Falcon has more than enough players (as a percentage of the player-base) to have had an Armada-esque Falcon ascend, while others believe that people generally mis-play Falcon (I'm speaking purely about optimization) as an aggressive character when he really might have more success when played "safe."
In other words, the flashy Falcons like Lord, S2J, and Jeapie are sprinters, not the marathon runners that Hax$ was before his fall (By the way, I tend to think about Hax$ the way Milton portrays Satan in Paradise Lost: a brilliant but tragic figure who made (and keeps making) all the wrong choices).
But another school of thought (which I am partial to as well) seems to suggest that Falcon can only become truly legendary when the player plays the opponent perfectly, making perfect reads. Mango seems to think that this is where Falcon truly shines (hence, perhaps, Falcon's inconsistency).
That suggests that Falcon mains need to get out there and play as many different opponents in as many different regions as possible. I don't think it is a coincidence that M2K was Hax$s main regional competitor, giving rise to the greatest Falcon yet. I wonder if part of S2J's regional success has been his ability to dominate top-level competitors in SoCal but not have as firm a lock on other regions, players and styles?
Losing a lot is frustrating though. And that suggests that attitude is essential for Falcon. He must remain disciplined enough to not make poor decisions, or greedy decisions (except when they are most likely to work off conditioning and a read), while also not becoming predictable or getting frustrated or salty when his plentiful weaknesses are exposed. And that seems to be the biggest hurdle, which even Hax$ never overcame.
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smileee
Smash Rookie
I think the "smarter falcons" (most notably wizzrobe) are likely going to be the ones that place higher and higher as time progresses. hax kind of already demonstrated that. he was technical and efficient and was pretty much unarguably the best falcon until he ditched him. he was always looking to optimize his game and cover the most options. this strategy lends itself well to consistency, but conversely we've all seen what comes from a successful series of reads with the infamous johnny stocks. flashy falcons like S2J can potentially place very high at nationals, but can also fail to make top 8 if they miss reads. i think that as long as falcon players are optimizing him, we'll see more of them in the highest echelon of players.
if mang0 wins apex. he should retire the fox/falco for a year or two. if enough people tell him he cant win a national with only falcon, then he will prove everyone wrong. in 2015 i think only a current god can win a national with falcon. wizzrobe, s2j, gravy, and other might get a chance one day but not in the year 2015
Jim Jam Flim Flam
Smash Apprentice
The problem with falcon is is his speed and inability to control. To win a national you have to be in complete control of ever single inch your character moves. There are fast characters, like fox, falco, and Sheik who can be controlled but Falcon is nearly impossible to control at that level. He is like driving a stupid fast car with horrible brakes and transmission. Sure, its fast but what happens when you have to make a turn? You slow down or you crash. A top tier character needs versatility and controllability, both of which falcon lacks. He has bad matchups against high tiers and relies on overpowering opponents with his speed, power, and combos, which the top players can easily counter. There is only man who has ever controlled falcon well enough to win a national - Isai. That was nearly a decade ago, and it seems to me unless you play lile he did Falcon will forever be stuck just below fox, falco, marth, and sheik
kyaputenfarukon07
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2011
- Messages
- 267
So Fox,Falco ,shiek are not hard to control/ do execution mistakes , which at high level , it should mean that stock is gone unless the one punishing is making one. Fox and Falco in particular have more slimmer execution windows than falcon and therefore should be more difficult to control than Falcon. The reasons why Falcon is considered to have bad matchups against those characters is because of the neutral game interaction on different stages and based on % situations, which is more difficult for Falcon relative to those characters, which should mean that those characters should be in control of the match a majority of the time in theory. All of these characters that are being compared have comparable punish games which are extremely brutal on both sides. Versatility is something Falcon seems to lack compared to them but this highly situation based, such as recovery and other segments of the game. Speed is something Falcon has on all of the characters compared, barring fox and speed can be versatile in controlling space and timing on all of moves. He also has range on the space animals and can pressure with space rather than frame trap on human players/ play passive aggressive. The combos in a lot of cases are guaranteed and the one who loses the opening and lets it happen made the mistake. The power falcon has based on how its setup can be destructive and being able to take stocks early / possibly guaranteeing the kill / setting up edgeguards and capitalizing on them, is crucial for making comebacks / being in control.
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Jim Jam Flim Flam
Smash Apprentice
While Fox and Falco do have, as you said, slim execution windows they are still easier to control and it is therefore easier to get those slim execution timings. I think that, should someone be able to totally control Falcon, he would be the best character in the game. He has so much power and speed, and can combo the **** out of characters if done right. He also has a range advantage on a few characters but Fox and Falco have zero bad matchups, only a few even ones. I don't play as fox or Falco,but objectively they are the best characters in the game and I can't see a Falcon player with equal training winning over a fox or Falco player with equal training. Fox an Falco both have big advantages in the matchup.
Clint Jaguar
Smash Journeyman
I'm a firm believer that Falcon can still win a national tournament. Yes Fox/Falco mains are getting better every year but they're not as invincible as many make them out to be. Falcon has the right tools to exploit their weaknesses, he just requires the right player to make good use of them. We haven't seen a "perfect" Falcon yet. A Falcon player with the right amount of tech skill, aggression and patience could end this stupid 20xx theory once and for all.
Clint Jaguar
Smash Journeyman
I'm a firm believer that Falcon can still win a national tournament. Yes Fox/Falco mains are getting better every year but they're not as invincible as many make them out to be. Falcon has the right tools to exploit their weaknesses, he just requires the right player to make good use of them. We haven't seen a "perfect" Falcon yet. A Falcon player with the right amount of tech skill, aggression and patience could end this stupid 20xx theory once and for all.
i think most of us could make a list of 10 players that will win all the nationals this year.
realistically the 5 gods plus leffen are the real contenders. one of the 5 gods would have to be our falcon hero
winning a national means slaying out multiple gods
m2k shiek/fd, ppmd falco/marth these 2 matchups alone are pretty grim
only one of the 5 gods would ever ride or die captain falcon.
Mang0 Pls
s2j, wizzy, gravy, ghatzu are all improving but i dont think any of them are ready yet. maybe 2016
realistically the 5 gods plus leffen are the real contenders. one of the 5 gods would have to be our falcon hero
winning a national means slaying out multiple gods
m2k shiek/fd, ppmd falco/marth these 2 matchups alone are pretty grim
only one of the 5 gods would ever ride or die captain falcon.
Mang0 Pls
s2j, wizzy, gravy, ghatzu are all improving but i dont think any of them are ready yet. maybe 2016
Leffen's assessment of Falcon both then and now are pretty accurate, TBH. He is a simple glass cannon; a character who relies on a handful of extremes to overcome a multitude of flaws. The way I see him:
Top tier qualities:
>Insane mobility (Makes him better than half the cast on principle)
>Extremely strong punish game (Can probably zero to death or put you in a terrible situation off one grab. His punish game is lack luster vs. other fast fallers though)
Mid tier qualities:
>Moveset (aerials are solid despite somewhat low priority. Kind of lacks any solid defensive options outside of his mobility and sorely lacks good ground options outside of jab or grab; doesn't really have the equivalent to a spacie laser/shine, marth/pika/yoshi dtilt, sheik ftilt, Peach FC aerial, Jiggs bair, IC's blizzard, etc.)
Low tier qualities:
>Recovery (should have little ways around either dying or taking significant damage when forced to up-b)
>OoS options (Definitely in the bottom 5 for this attribute)
>Tech options (...)
Double-edged qualities:
>Falling speed and weight class (Probably the easiest character to gimp and definitely one of the easiest characters to combo. These attributes do play into his mobility/give him strong resistance to vertical KOs, but its hard to say it hurts him more than it helps him)
With that said, Falcon can probably win a national. Someone who can maximize their control over Falcon's strengths has a shot.
Top tier qualities:
>Insane mobility (Makes him better than half the cast on principle)
>Extremely strong punish game (Can probably zero to death or put you in a terrible situation off one grab. His punish game is lack luster vs. other fast fallers though)
Mid tier qualities:
>Moveset (aerials are solid despite somewhat low priority. Kind of lacks any solid defensive options outside of his mobility and sorely lacks good ground options outside of jab or grab; doesn't really have the equivalent to a spacie laser/shine, marth/pika/yoshi dtilt, sheik ftilt, Peach FC aerial, Jiggs bair, IC's blizzard, etc.)
Low tier qualities:
>Recovery (should have little ways around either dying or taking significant damage when forced to up-b)
>OoS options (Definitely in the bottom 5 for this attribute)
>Tech options (...)
Double-edged qualities:
>Falling speed and weight class (Probably the easiest character to gimp and definitely one of the easiest characters to combo. These attributes do play into his mobility/give him strong resistance to vertical KOs, but its hard to say it hurts him more than it helps him)
With that said, Falcon can probably win a national. Someone who can maximize their control over Falcon's strengths has a shot.
Personally don't believe so. PPMD's set vs. S2J this weekend only reinforced my idea.
Why?
1 reason:
Falco.
It's just too hard of a counter.
Watch any national - you'll see CFs getting far in the tournament until they meet their first high-skill Falco and then they lose.
And that's just how it goes. Happened at both Paragon and Apex recently
Why?
1 reason:
Falco.
It's just too hard of a counter.
Watch any national - you'll see CFs getting far in the tournament until they meet their first high-skill Falco and then they lose.
And that's just how it goes. Happened at both Paragon and Apex recently
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Its hard to say. Its definitely a terrible MU for Falcon, but I'd argue its only unwinnable (and by unwinnable, I mean top level of play) on FD. Falcon's speed and maneuverability will always give him some options in neutral. The same can't be said for other extreme hard counters like ICs vs. Peach.
S2J vs. PPMD is actually a pretty bad example anyway since S2J can't edgeguard lol.
Sure and I think there were a lot of times when he didn't do anything when he could have.
But it's S2J and he's better than me and comes from SoCal so he has infinitely better experience in the match up than I do so idk.
I think it's a good example simply because CF hits a Falco and immediately loses.
There's some times where the outcome doesn't reflect the story of the game [I remember Hbox vs....someone? at Paragon and it was a 3-0 but it was INCREDIBLY CLOSE each game] but unfortunately at the end of the day the outcome is all that matters
KneeJustice
Smash Rookie
Adding these for hype (and posterity). Probably deserves its own call out thread though.
Mango, show me your moves!
Source: https://twitter.com/C9Mang0/status/557634096823013378
Source: https://twitter.com/C9Mang0/status/562408675449782272
Context:
https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/2ukwgg/its_might_be_happening/
https://www.reddit.com/r/SSBM/comments/2ul2c1/follow_up_to_mango_maining_falcon_will_we_see_it/
https://www.reddit.com/r/SSBM/comments/2ujowd/c9mang0_is_going_to_main_falcon_now/
Another Reddit thread on Falcon's long term tournament viability for the record:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SSBM/comments/2u8moe/is_captain_falcon_overrated_if_not_then_why_does/
Mango, show me your moves!
Source: https://twitter.com/C9Mang0/status/557634096823013378
Source: https://twitter.com/C9Mang0/status/562408675449782272
Context:
https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/2ukwgg/its_might_be_happening/
https://www.reddit.com/r/SSBM/comments/2ul2c1/follow_up_to_mango_maining_falcon_will_we_see_it/
https://www.reddit.com/r/SSBM/comments/2ujowd/c9mang0_is_going_to_main_falcon_now/
Another Reddit thread on Falcon's long term tournament viability for the record:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SSBM/comments/2u8moe/is_captain_falcon_overrated_if_not_then_why_does/
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Smashing_Spamus
Smash Rookie
Falcon needs to win a national. Otherwise, I don't really think we can see him as a viable character(S tier definition) anymore. The highest placing Falcon at Apex was S2J, sitting at 17th.
Deeeej
Smash Rookie
- Joined
- Jan 21, 2015
- Messages
- 3
dunno, s2j probably would have won game 3 on ps but he dropped 2 crucial edgeguards to what were just input errors it seemed. The first being the ledgehop on the illusion during the first stock, and the full hop nair instead of what I imagined to be a SH nair on pps 3rd stock. I think this set went to show that even at the highest level, the matchup is still do-able, although, as you said, it was still a 2-0 in favor of pps falco, so it's still a hard road ahead. If any falcon can do it, its gonna be s2j though
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Crezyte
Smash Apprentice
People are talking about Gravy/Wizzy/Ghatzu being the florida falcons to save the day. Just you wait.
And again they all did fantastic until they hit Falcos.
I'll believe it when I see it and it doesn't discourage me from playing Falcon because I enjoy playing him
But I don't think he'll win a national.
All of you guys need to watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEUt-sOe7eE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEUt-sOe7eE
Crezyte
Smash Apprentice
Lol I never knew where that quote came from. Also that last hit
Clint Jaguar
Smash Journeyman
You've never seen the Rocky movies?
Crezyte
Smash Apprentice
Nope, haha. Even as a falcon main I've never seen the Rocky movies.
N7S
Smash Journeyman
Now that Armada is going 20xx, pray that Mango brings out his Falcon.
KneeJustice
Smash Rookie
I don't know 0Room, I'm intrigued by your Falco theory. I'll keep an eye on it.
But let's not forget that marth hadn't won a major since the end of 2007. Maybe times are changing.
http://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/2ujqzg/juggleguy_apex2015_is_the_first_melee_major_won/
Of course, there are a few ways to interpret this: Marth is a top 2-5 character (according to most people) so the fact that it has taken him this long to win a national means that falcon is unlikely to do so.
OR that the top players are really what's preventing a breakout. This returns to my point in the OP that it's entirely player dependent. Maybe M2K could have done it with marth since 2007, but his strategy involves mastery of several characters. I think that's increasingly the norm at the highest level. That's not necessarily good for falcon but it means he could remain competitive as a counter pick to players or characters or stages. It also raises the question about whether "winning a national" should be our measuring stick of a characters long term viability.
Other factors: Armadas switch is a direct parallel to Haxs. Both characters are incredibly close on the current tier list, placing just below the top tier (with falcon below peach) If armada and peach can't do it, that's another bit of data that heaps damnation upon that tier of characters.
Of course, the gods looked incredibly vulnerable this tournament. Hbox and m2k (who was sick and busy with sm4sh but no johns) went out early, mango got exposed and demoralized by his $1000 loss to leffen, armada was forced to switch to fox at the top level (what this will become is unknown) and PPMD was returning from a 6momth hiatus and looked a bit shaky in the early brackets.
Anything is possible. Apex 2015 demonstrates that in my opinion.
But let's not forget that marth hadn't won a major since the end of 2007. Maybe times are changing.
http://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/2ujqzg/juggleguy_apex2015_is_the_first_melee_major_won/
Of course, there are a few ways to interpret this: Marth is a top 2-5 character (according to most people) so the fact that it has taken him this long to win a national means that falcon is unlikely to do so.
OR that the top players are really what's preventing a breakout. This returns to my point in the OP that it's entirely player dependent. Maybe M2K could have done it with marth since 2007, but his strategy involves mastery of several characters. I think that's increasingly the norm at the highest level. That's not necessarily good for falcon but it means he could remain competitive as a counter pick to players or characters or stages. It also raises the question about whether "winning a national" should be our measuring stick of a characters long term viability.
Other factors: Armadas switch is a direct parallel to Haxs. Both characters are incredibly close on the current tier list, placing just below the top tier (with falcon below peach) If armada and peach can't do it, that's another bit of data that heaps damnation upon that tier of characters.
Of course, the gods looked incredibly vulnerable this tournament. Hbox and m2k (who was sick and busy with sm4sh but no johns) went out early, mango got exposed and demoralized by his $1000 loss to leffen, armada was forced to switch to fox at the top level (what this will become is unknown) and PPMD was returning from a 6momth hiatus and looked a bit shaky in the early brackets.
Anything is possible. Apex 2015 demonstrates that in my opinion.
And of course that Armada kind of made Peach a viable character at top tier is also amusing
Maybe he's like me and just wanted to play around with a "higher tier" character for a bit just to see what it felt like then enjoyed it and thought "eh why not"
Doesn't mean he's dropping Peach forever or anything
But yeh I mean I suppose it is possible, just think it's a 0.0001% chance
N7S
Smash Journeyman
I'm sure it is possible. I'm slowly moving up the tier list in mains. I mained Young Link back when I was a casual. Then I mained Mario as my first competitive character. Now I'm up to Captain Falcon and thinking of dropping Mario. As hard as it is dropping Mario, I have to move on with what I think is the character that I can win the most matches with. I just hope I get noticed by pros and sponsors with Falcon and see how far I can progress from there.
FalconOwnage
Smash Apprentice
Falcon can easily zero-to-death the top 4 characters on the tier list. In theory, getting grabbed should mean death for Fox, Falco, Sheik, and Marth. The problem is that we have yet to find a human capable of consistently optimizing the insane potential of Falcon.
I disagree on grounds of having a different definition of "0-death"
I see 0-death as an unbroken combo that can ONLY BE AFFECTED by DI [as in NOT techs, spotdoges, shines, etc]
In that sense Fox/Falco CANNOT be 0-deathed because they're just too heavy to be comboed.
Can you tech chase them? Sure
But that's not a combo per se. There are MANY points in that "combo" chain where the spacey can escape it and do something.
Sheik/Marth sure I'll give that one to you
But Fox/Falco which are your worst match ups cannot be 0-death comboed consistently in the way that I view 0-death
Jim Jam Flim Flam
Smash Apprentice
I think people can realistically win nationals with ~ 8 characters, including Captain Falcon, but of those 8 he would be the hardest to do it with (except maybe Ice Climbers) I don't like making arbitrary distinctions between tournament viable and non tournament viable characters, but I think that after 14 years we can definitely narrow it down. I think Fox and Falco will always be at the top, but falcon has the ability to combo these characters if done right, and, with enough practice, and taking Isia's advice to not get hit, it's possible to straight wreck people and win a national like a boss. If anybody can do it, it's Mango. I don't think anyone else who is willing to play falcon would have a shot. Sure, s2j has some damn good placings but he can't hang with the best of the best. If armada switches to fox and Mango switches to falcon, we could have a very interesting year ahead of us.
In the year 20XX, the fox metagame has evolved to absurd levels. The last time an L-Canceled short hop fast fall shine spike was flubbed was nearly a decade ago......
A Falcon player approaches. The crowd stares. He plugs his controller in and begins doing "knees" and "elbows" and "stomps"
The fox players are baffled. Who is this strange character? Where is his blue hexagon? His bionic legs? Can he not shoot lasers?
It's strange times in 20XX, strange times indeed
In the year 20XX, the fox metagame has evolved to absurd levels. The last time an L-Canceled short hop fast fall shine spike was flubbed was nearly a decade ago......
A Falcon player approaches. The crowd stares. He plugs his controller in and begins doing "knees" and "elbows" and "stomps"
The fox players are baffled. Who is this strange character? Where is his blue hexagon? His bionic legs? Can he not shoot lasers?
It's strange times in 20XX, strange times indeed