So, When Does it Release?
This brings us to our last point of interest: the timetable of development and release. When is the game going to come out? 2013? 2014? 2015? This is what we know so far. The original Super Smash Bros came out near the end of the N64 lifespan in January 1999. The Gamecube was released in November of 2001 and Super Smash Bros Melee debuted within the launch window, in December 2001. That means it was in development for a little under two years. Work on Super Smash Bros Brawl began halfway through 2005. It ended in January 2008. That’s about two and a half years. So let’s assume a new Smash Bros game takes around 2 years, give or take a few months, to complete. Iwata announced the latest Super Smash Bros half-way through 2011. Development didn’t really begin until March 2012 but we can assume there had been plenty of discussion of the direction and the intial planning stages. Sakurai said that characters don’t get decided upon early on until the core gameplay system is complete. So, when was that? Luckily, he shared that with us. On August 7th, Sakurai revealed that the “gameplay system” was complete. That means that intial design decisions and the project document had been drawn up over a year, 2011-2012. The core gameplay system was developed over six months in 2012. So, what’s left? A lot. The core fighting system will power two separate games on both Wii U and 3DS. There are characters to create, with their full skillsets and moves. The levels have to be created. The game must be balanced. There are a Sakurai-amount of collectables to be designed and littered across the game. And the man is a perfectionist. He won’t let it release until there’s nothing left to do other than hire Capcom, Konami, and maybe even Sony to join Namco and redesign the game from scratch.
So, with a year and a half of the development process done in August and we’re now approaching February, you can say we’re closing in on the two-year mark. So, how does the rest play out? It can go one of two ways. Either, the game is worked on for another half a year and then comes out for the holiday season 2013. Or Sakurai says he wants more time (like he did when he pushed the Brawl release out of holiday 2007 and into January 2008) and development goes on until an opportune moment in 2014.
Ok, Menashe, give the people a prediction. Fine, fine, you’ve got me cornered. Here’s me saying: Super Smash Bros for Wii U and 3DS to release Holiday Season, this year, 2013. Nintendo won’t let Sakurai delay release because they’ll be needing Smash Bros to counter the holiday season hype for the upcoming systems from Xbox/Sony/Valve and anyone else who might join the competition. You heard it here first. Expect at least a trailer of the game at E3 if not a playable demo. And remember to come back and mock me if I’m wrong.