Purpose
This study seeks to characterize the counterpicking tendencies of Meta Knight players when both Rainbow Cruise and Brinstar are legal. Though the data is a bit old, the MLG Matchslips provide the most comprehensive archive of banning and counterpicking tendencies. Using this archive, the following questions will be investigated:
1. What is Meta Knight's win percentage on various stages?
2. What do opposing players tend to ban against Meta Knight?
3. What do Meta Knight players ban against other players?
4. What stages do Meta Knight players pick when Brinstar is banned?
5. What stages do Meta Knight players pick when Rainbow Cruise is banned?
Background
This analysis is in response to a fairly vague data presentation. The original purpose was to present the same information in a way that was readily understandable. During the search for references after the current analysis was complete, a similar analysis was discovered on Smashboards. A quick conclusion to be drawn from a methodological standpoint is this: always do a thorough literature search beforehand.
That said, some questions still remained unanswered. Namely, question 3 (since the analysis listed above did not remove MK dittos), question 4 and question 5.
Method
The match slips were organized in a way that allowed the Meta Knight related matches to be sorted out. All matches which were missing data were removed. Due to the strict removal measures taken in this study, in combination with the fact that all MK dittos were removed, the numbers presented later may not match some of the numbers that have been previously presented. Meta Knight dittos were removed to focus on the ban/counterpick interaction between Meta Knight mains and all other players.
Various sorting techniques were used in Microsoft Excel to sift through the data, though the determination of the counterpicking character was done by hand. After the aforementioned stages of data removal and sorting were complete, the results were compiled and put into table format.
This study has several weaknesses. It cannot adjust win percentage values for matches that were not played. If Brinstar is banned 100 times, there is no way to account for a win percentage that was never played out. This data is also several years old at this point. Many regions have prevented these two stages from appearing together in events, and no event since MLG has recorded this much information via matchslips so a present-day analysis cannot be done.
Results and Discussion
Research Question 1: What is MK's win percent on various stages?
Table 1 - Meta Knight win percentage for each stage played
Meta Knight players managed a positive win percentage on all stages except Frigate Orpheon and Lylat Cruise. Brinstar comes in at the 6th highest win percent, with Rainbow Cruise coming in even lower at 13th place. One could propose that Meta Knight players who were known for doing well on these stages were dealt a ban right away. However, this table alone cannot speak for or against that statement.
Research Question 2: What do opposing players tend to ban against Meta Knight?
Table 2: Bans vs Meta Knight
This shows that Brinstar and Rainbow Cruise are the most frequently banned stages when a non Meta Knight player faces a Meta Knight player. The community may not find this to be a striking result, given the assumptions that have been made about the pair of stages in the past. This does not necessarily mean Meta Knight's win percentage on those stages is completely incorrect... however, the only sure way to test this theory would be to hold a series of events with both stages legal and no counterpicks. This is an unlikely event, so generalizations based on this data may be required.
Research Question 3: What do Meta Knight players ban against other players?
Table 3: Meta Knight's Stage Bans
It has been previously stated that Final Destination was the most banned stage at MLG. The most vocal backers of this message failed to reference MK26's work, so it was not immediately apparent why Final Destination was banned so often. It appears that Meta Knight players have a tendency to ban this stage. The author would wager a guess to say that this was primarily done against Wario, ICs, Falco, and Diddy Kong.
Research Question 4: What stages do Meta Knight players pick when Brinstar is banned?
Research Question 5: What stages do Meta Knight players pick when Rainbow Cruise is banned?
Table 4: Stages Chosen When Brinstar is Banned
Table 5: Stages Chosen When Rainbow Cruise is Banned
These two results are presented together because they hold a community assumed trait. Rainbow Cruise and Brinstar seem to work as a pair for Meta Knight players. When one is not available, the other is chosen. The correlation isn't incredibly powerful, but the implication is there.
Conclusion
MLG Matchslip data was compiled and analyzed to investigate ban and counterpick tendencies in matches with Meta Knight involved. The raw win percent table implies that the previous statements are true: "Brinstar and Rainbow Cruise are not Meta Knight's strongest stages". The ban and counterpick tables imply something completely different. Brinstar and Rainbow Cruise are the most commonly banned stages versus Meta Knight. When one of the two stages are banned, Meta Knight players tend to pick the one that remains when given the chance to counterpick a stage.
Future Work
If matchslips could be collected for a more recent series of events, other permutations of this study could be performed. Some suggestions are as follows:
1. Events at which Brinstar and Rainbow Cruise were legal without bans. This could provide a more accurate Meta Knight win percentage figure.
2. Events at which Brinstar and Rainbow Cruise were not legal simultaneously. This would provide a more accurate look at recent-day events.
3. Events at which neither Brinstar nor Rainbow Cruise were legal. This could point to new tendencies, or lack thereof, on the part of Meta Knight players when choosing stages from a list without this pair.
References
1. MLG Match Slips:
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=304174
2. Unclear Results Description:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=14355857&postcount=235
3. MK26 Win Percent, Ban, Counterpick Analysis:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12774152&postcount=90
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