Smash 4 Speculation Chart [WE UPDATE NOW]

[AEMehr]

Hey guys, update is going to be a while from now. I'm going to give anybody that shows up in the game their trophy model as their icon, so I'm waiting till we know all the trophies before anything is updated.

Base icon sets are done, I just need to make the actual icons for everyone outside of the playable cast of characters.

 

[AEMehr]

Updates are about to begin.
Chart organization changes:
- Only playable characters will not be transparent.
- Majority of characters that are present in the games will use their trophy model as their artwork. Many icons are updated to reflect this.
- Characters are now organized by: Playable Debut in Smash -> Debut in Franchise
- Characters that appear as trophies or in stages (only aesthetically and do not play a part in gameplay) will have a yellow background. These characters are still viable choices for playable characters as DLC.
- Characters that appear in another fighters moveset, or alter gameplay in stages or any other gamemodes (such as Smash Tour and Smash Run) will be considered disconfirmed, and will be given a red background.
- Characters that do not appear in any capacity will retain their gray background, but now fade into the background.

MARIO SERIES

- Dr. Mario and Bowser Junior have been confirmed to be playable fighters.
- The Koopalings have been added as they are all playable costumes for Bowser Junior.
- Blue Toad was removed, since it was a little redundant to have Toad, Blue Toad, and Captain Toad.
- Paper Mario and King Boo are both trophies in the 3DS version.
- Geno and Captain Toad make no appearance in either version of the game (Though, I guess Captain Toad is in the Toad Brigade trophy).
- Giga Bowser's artwork will eventually be changed, but will be done later.

DONKEY KONG SERIES

- Cranky Kong, Funky Kong, King K. Rool, and Dixie Kong are all trophies in both versions of the game.
- Kiddy Kong does not appear in either version of the game.

THE LEGEND OF ZELDA SERIES

- Ganondorf has been confirmed to be a playable fighter.
- Beast Ganon returns as Ganondorf's Final Smash, lowering the possibility of Ganon appearing as a separate fighter (Arguable).
- Impa appears in both versions as a trophy (OoT in 3DS & Skyward Sword in Wii U). Tetra and Toon Zelda appear in the Wii U version as trophies as well.
- Vaati does not appear in either version of the game.
- Ganon's artwork will eventually be changed, but that will be done later.

STAR FOX SERIES

- Falco has been confirmed to be a playable fighter.
- Wolf, Slippy, and Krystal appear as trophies in both versions of the game.

F-ZERO SERIES

- Black Shadow is a trophy in the Wii U version.

PIKMIN SERIES

- Alph is a playable costume for Olimar.
- Louie is a trophy in both versions of the game.

 

[Deleted member]

Just bumping to see how progress is going

 

[AEMehr]

I need a thing called a New 3DS to make anymore substantial updates.

so waiting on that

 

[AEMehr]

Long ago, AEM said he would update this.

-And today is a day where things are being updated!!

Super Mario

- Paper Mario now uses his trophy model from the 3DS version.

The Legend of Zelda

- Young Link, Ganon, and Worlds Link icons have been updated.
- Overall visual improvement for several icons.

Metroid

- Ridley is an enemy character.
- Meta Ridley and Anthony don't appear in the games.
- Adam is a trophy.

Yoshi's Island

- Kamek is an enemy character.
- Baby Mario and Baby Luigi are trophies.

Kirby's Dreamland

- Magolor is a trophy.
- (Bandana) Waddle Dee and Dark Matter do not appear in the games.

Pokémon

- Female Pokémon Trainer was removed from the chart to make it appear cleaner.
- Jigglypuff was confirmed to be playable.
- Mewtwo was confirmed to eventually be playable as DLC.
- Zoroark was confirmed to be an assist character.
- Pichu, Pokémon Trainer, Squirtle, Ivysaur, Blaziken, and Mega Blaziken are trophies.
- Mega Mewtwo X and Mega Mewtwo Y are trophies, but their role may change once Mewtwo is playable.
- Sceptile, Plusle & Minun, Mega Charizard Y, and Mega Sceptile do not appear in the games.
- Several artwork updates.

MOTHER

- Ness is playable.
- Lucas and Porky are trophies.
- Ninten appears in Magicant.
- Claus is not in the games.

Fire Emblem

- Anna is a trophy.
- Roy does not appear in the games.

WarioWare

- Wario is a playable character.
- Wario-Man is Wario's final smash, and is playable through those means.
- 9-Volt and Mona are trophies.
- Jimmy T. appears in the Gamer stage.
- Captain Syrup does not appear in the games.


- - - - - - - - - - - - -

I also updated the OP slightly to list out what role each character on the list has in the games. So good stuff. Will probably update again when I finish the rest of lists, just need to find all of those 3DS trophies again s:

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Is this still being worked on?

 

[FalKoopa]

@ AEMehr
Time for Lucas to get a new look.

 

[AEMehr]

I didn't forget! I'm still working on all of the no shows / 3DS trophies.

 

[ebflover777]

Responses in red.

Good speculation!

 

[Geno Boost]

any new updates?

 

[AEMehr]

Someday, probably.

 

[AEMehr]

SOMEDAY IS TODAY

I DID IT

I FINISHED IT ALL

MOTHER / EARTHBOUND

- LUCAS RETURNS
- ONE OF LUCAS' ALTS HAS MASKED MAN'S HEAD ON IT

FIRE EMBLEM

- ROY RETURNS

KID ICARUS

- DARK PIT CONFIRMED
- MEDUSA + HADES TROPHIES CONFIRMED
- VIRIDI KIND OF A STAGE HAZARD

PRE-SMASH 64

- G&W AND ROB RETURN
- DUCK HUNT LIVES
- CLIMBERS ARE TROPHIES RIP
- GUNMAN IS PART OF DUCK HUNTS MOVESET
- SO MANY PEOPLE DIDN'T SHOW

PRE-MELEE

- K.K. APPEARS ON THE AC STAGES
- NOTHING ELSE CHANGED

PRE-BRAWL

- KAWASHIMA IS AN AT
- BARBARA, NINTENCAT, CHIBI-ROBO, AND SO MANY RHYTHM HEAVEN TROPHIES!

PRE/POST-SMASH FOR WII U / 3DS

- SHULK CONFIRMED
- LOTSA TROPHIES
- XENOBLADE X PROTAGONIST GOT A NAME, IT'S CROSS. GO FIGURE.

THIRD-PARTIES

- RYU SOMEHOW SHOWED UP, SHORYUKEN THE RABBID OUT OF THE CHART LIKE WOW.





THIS IS EVERYONE

i spent 5 hours straight on this pls kill me

 

[Guybrush20X6]

i spent 5 hours straight on this pls kill me

Later. There's still the Ballot characters.

Great job on the whole thing.

 

[Serell]

Why do I see stupid things like mega evolutions and no midna

 

[AEMehr]

Why do I see stupid things like mega evolutions and no midna

You had to be here months ago before this game was released, lol.


Megas were for Final Smashes, Midna did not meet enough votes to enter in.

 

[memoryman3]

You had to be here months ago before this game was released, lol.


Megas were for Final Smashes, Midna did not meet enough votes to enter in.

Me see Waluigi but no Daisy....

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

Why do I see stupid things like mega evolutions and no midna

Me see Waluigi but no Daisy....

Oy... We had months to discuss all of this prior to the final charts being made way prior to Smash 3DS's launch. Midna and Daisy were each not put on the chart for reasons of not enough support and/or too much detraction to seem feasible. Again, months of debate from various users decided this. Neither have gotten more notable since then, and it certainly isn't remotely reasonably to amend them to the chart now, given that they're an Assist Trophy and alternate outfit in their current standings.

Come around again for Smash 5. There might be grounds to argue for putting them on the chart by then.

 

[memoryman3]

Oy... We had months to discuss all of this prior to the final charts being made way prior to Smash 3DS's launch. Midna and Daisy were each not put on the chart for reasons of not enough support and/or too much detraction to seem feasible. Again, months of debate from various users decided this. Neither have gotten more notable since then, and it certainly isn't remotely reasonably to amend them to the chart now, given that they're an Assist Trophy and alternate outfit in their current standings.

Come around again for Smash 5. There might be grounds to argue for putting them on the chart by then.

It wasn't really an alternate outfit, it was a simple palette swap like Wolf's one for Fox in Smash 4. Also unlike other NPC's, she has THREE trophies in Smash U.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

It wasn't really an alternate outfit, it was a simple palette swap like Wolf's one for Fox in Smash 4. Also unlike other NPC's, she has THREE trophies in Smash U.

Still doesn't merit being added on it's own. Maybe the silent majority will suprise us with Daisy as a ballot character but that's for another day.

 

[Serell]

Yes, playable mega evo pokemons make so much more sense

 

[Deleted member]

Yes, playable mega evo pokemons make so much more sense

Megas were for Final Smashes

Lrn2read

Also, you notice that the charts have Giga Bowser, Wario-Man, and Giga Mac, which are specialized playable characters?
Yeah. Megas were included in case they were the same thing, which one actually was; Mega Lucario.

 

[AEMehr]

Yes, playable mega evo pokemons make so much more sense

Um.

Megas were for Final Smashes

Edit:
'd

 

[memoryman3]

Still doesn't merit being added on it's own. Maybe the silent majority will suprise us with Daisy as a ballot character but that's for another day.

I don't get why people think a character like Daisy is extremely unlikely to be added.

Unlike nearly all of the potential fighters in this list, Daisy would be instantly recognisable by most casual players, and if this is isn't enough, she's portrayed as an active, obnoxious female who isn't afraid to cause a stir. Even Bowser doesn't want to kidnap her.

It's not like she hasn't got any moveset potential either. Since she's infamous for only appearing in the sports and party games since 2000, why not take inspiration from that. Too similar to Wii Fit Trainer? Give her flower power! A mix of both would be ideal.

Also, she might have not appeared in spin offs since, I'm sure that Nintendo considers her to be a staple character along with Waluigi and Rosalina. Look at this artwork.

I don't see why she shouldn't be added to the list of potential fighters (After all, Baby Luigi is in the list...)

 

[Guybrush20X6]

The lists are already made so this conversation should go to the daisy thread.

And Baby Weegee is there as a Yoshi character. We really needed to stretch on that series. I just with Yoshi could get a villain other than Bowser.

 

[Deleted member]

Every time I see someone use the "but X is on the chart, so Y should be there too" argument, I want to strangle a baby monkey.

It should also be noted that the charts are reflective of the final listing as of pre-release and have just finished catching up with updates to the characters already on the charts in regards to how they were featured on release and through post-release DLC.
They DO NOT account for speculation that has resulted from the Ballot. I will be speaking with AEM on that matter in private.

But for now, no ******** about how certain characters aren't on the charts, especially if they wouldn't have had any real reason to be there before the Ballot had opened.

And Baby Weegee is there as a Yoshi character. We really needed to stretch on that series. I just with Yoshi could get a villain other than Bowser.

Actually, Baby Luigi was there in case we got the "Baby Bros." as a tag-team.

For the most part, we kept components of potential tag-teams separated in the event that only one component makes it in.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I noticed the lack of Rayman there It's pretty weird .

 

[Aetheri]

Long ago, AEM said he would update this.

-And today is a day where things are being updated!!

Super Mario

- Paper Mario now uses his trophy model from the 3DS version.

The Legend of Zelda

- Young Link, Ganon, and Worlds Link icons have been updated.
- Overall visual improvement for several icons.

Metroid

- Ridley is an enemy character.
- Meta Ridley and Anthony don't appear in the games.
- Adam is a trophy.

Yoshi's Island

- Kamek is an enemy character.
- Baby Mario and Baby Luigi are trophies.

Kirby's Dreamland

- Magolor is a trophy.
- (Bandana) Waddle Dee and Dark Matter do not appear in the games.

Pokémon

- Female Pokémon Trainer was removed from the chart to make it appear cleaner.
- Jigglypuff was confirmed to be playable.
- Mewtwo was confirmed to eventually be playable as DLC.
- Zoroark was confirmed to be an assist character.
- Pichu, Pokémon Trainer, Squirtle, Ivysaur, Blaziken, and Mega Blaziken are trophies.
- Mega Mewtwo X and Mega Mewtwo Y are trophies, but their role may change once Mewtwo is playable.
- Sceptile, Plusle & Minun, Mega Charizard Y, and Mega Sceptile do not appear in the games.
- Several artwork updates.

MOTHER

- Ness is playable.
- Lucas and Porky are trophies.
- Ninten appears in Magicant.
- Claus is not in the games.

Fire Emblem

- Anna is a trophy.
- Roy does not appear in the games.

WarioWare

- Wario is a playable character.
- Wario-Man is Wario's final smash, and is playable through those means.
- 9-Volt and Mona are trophies.
- Jimmy T. appears in the Gamer stage.
- Captain Syrup does not appear in the games.


- - - - - - - - - - - - -

I also updated the OP slightly to list out what role each character on the list has in the games. So good stuff. Will probably update again when I finish the rest of lists, just need to find all of those 3DS trophies again s:

Y U NO MIDNA!?

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I noticed the lack of Rayman there It's pretty weird .

That was before Omni's "leak".

Y U NO MIDNA!?

Seriously, are we being brigaded by the Midna thread here?

 

[AEMehr]

I noticed the lack of Rayman there It's pretty weird .

Rabbid was added because of Rayman's trophy and subsequently removed because third-party trophies were officially a thing.

Again, this list was comprised and completed before the game's development was done and DLC was a thing. I suppose it would make sense to do a recount, but since all we would be basing this on is more or less just a popularity contest I don't see why it would be necessary.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Rabbid was added because of Rayman's trophy and subsequently removed because third-party trophies were officially a thing.

Again, this list was comprised and completed before the game's development was done and DLC was a thing. I suppose it would make sense to do a recount, but since all we would be basing this on is more or less just a popularity contest I don't see why it would be necessary.

Yeah, if we were to do a recount I think it'd be better to start from scratch in a new thread and let these ones be (with updates for released DLC if need be)

 

[Deleted member]

Y U NO MIDNA!?

But for now, no ******** about how certain characters aren't on the charts, especially if they wouldn't have had any real reason to be there before the Ballot had opened.

And in specifically Midna's case, we are not adding in characters that were given Assist roles after they would've been included on the chart.

 

[Abade]

- XENOBLADE X PROTAGONIST GOT A NAME, IT'S CROSS. GO FIGURE.

pro·tag·o·nist
prōˈtaɡənəst,prəˈtaɡənəst/
noun
noun: protagonist; plural noun: protagonists

1. the leading character or one of the major characters in a drama, movie, novel, or other fictional text.
   • the main figure or one of the most prominent figures in a real situation.
2. The protagonist (from Ancient Greek πρωταγωνιστής (protagonistes), meaning "player of the first part, chief actor") or main character is a narrative's central or primary personal figure, who comes into conflict with an opposing major character or force (called the antagonist).

If you seen how the plot Xenoblade X plays out you'll can clearly see that Elma is the protagonist while Cross serves as the First-person narrator although Lin narrates the actual speaking. It is made especially clear with Cross absence in the ending and stinger while Elma is the most relevant to the plot considering how much action she took and is largely focused on with the stinger at the end of the game. Cross doesn't affect the story most of the time. The "choices" Cross makes are just reactions to make you feel they affect the story but they are very minor and little to no detail. Unlike Crono, Cross can't even bother to show up in the ending of the main plot when Cross could easily follow Elma like in the first visit to New LA.

 

[AEMehr]

pro·tag·o·nist
prōˈtaɡənəst,prəˈtaɡənəst/
noun
noun: protagonist; plural noun: protagonists

1. the leading character or one of the major characters in a drama, movie, novel, or other fictional text.
   • the main figure or one of the most prominent figures in a real situation.
2. The protagonist (from Ancient Greek πρωταγωνιστής (protagonistes), meaning "player of the first part, chief actor") or main character is a narrative's central or primary personal figure, who comes into conflict with an opposing major character or force (called the antagonist).

If you seen how the plot Xenoblade X plays out you'll can clearly see that Elma is the protagonist while Cross serves as the First-person narrator although Lin narrates the actual speaking. It is made especially clear with Cross absence in the ending and stinger while Elma is the most relevant to the plot considering how much action she took and is largely focused on with the stinger at the end of the game. Cross doesn't affect the story most of the time. The "choices" Cross makes are just reactions to make you feel they affect the story but they are very minor and little to no detail. Unlike Crono, Cross can't even bother to show up in the ending of the main plot when Cross could easily follow Elma like in the first visit to New LA.

I don't understand why people aren't reading the posts?

The characters have been set on this list since before the 3DS version was out. It was agreed that the avatar character was going to be put on the chart with Shulk, but with no name or information on the game we just left it as "X Protagonist".
I'm sorry if it bugs you that it didn't turn out the way people thought it would??

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

With all of these folks complaining anyway, I guess it's worth considering: Since the charts are supposed to account for who gets into Smash Bros. and that we aren't limited to only keeping track of the pre-release speculation (since it's more than obvious that these charts reflect DLC and whatever has happened in post Wii U's launch), should we open nominations for the chart once more? Regardless of the reasons why a character gets into Smash Bros., our goal is to include all characters that can reasonably enter Smash Bros., is it not?

I doubt we'd have to amend much if we use the same reasoning process as before, but there are definitely a few characters worth considering via popularity alone nowadays. I have absolute doubts that we'll get any third-party additions via the ballot, but based on the consistent results we've seen of unofficial surveys, it might be worth humoring some characters, both as a precaution of getting them too much doubt when anyone really is a contender if they're popular enough as well as a way to get a good final update in before the ballot's end in October.

We probably won't ever get Shantae, Shovel Knight, or Banjo-Kazooie, but just remember that this is the first time popularity has played a direct role in deciding upcoming characters. That's all I ask to be taken in consideration when you and @GoldenYuiitusin speak about DLC matters. I'll agree with whatever consensus you guys make either way.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Where did you get the Claus picture from? I'd like to see the full thing.

 

[AEMehr]

Yeah, if we were to do a recount I think it'd be better to start from scratch in a new thread and let these ones be (with updates for released DLC if need be)

With all of these folks complaining anyway, I guess it's worth considering: Since the charts are supposed to account for who gets into Smash Bros. and that we aren't limited to only keeping track of the pre-release speculation (since it's more than obvious that these charts reflect DLC and whatever has happened in post Wii U's launch), should we open nominations for the chart once more? Regardless of the reasons why a character gets into Smash Bros., our goal is to include all characters that can reasonably enter Smash Bros., is it not?

I doubt we'd have to amend much if we use the same reasoning process as before, but there are definitely a few characters worth considering via popularity alone nowadays. I have absolute doubts that we'll get any third-party additions via the ballot, but based on the consistent results we've seen of unofficial surveys, it might be worth humoring some characters, both as a precaution of getting them too much doubt when anyone really is a contender if they're popular enough as well as a way to get a good final update in before the ballot's end in October.

We probably won't ever get Shantae, Shovel Knight, or Banjo-Kazooie, but just remember that this is the first time popularity has played a direct role in deciding upcoming characters. That's all I ask to be taken in consideration when you and @GoldenYuiitusin speak about DLC matters. I'll agree with whatever consensus you guys make either way.

Well I mean, with exclusion of the troll Reckless Wii Remote Guy and the crazy amount of third-parties people want, the current chart has every big front runner in the ballot.

I guess we could humor Banjo and Shovel Knight at the very least, but when it comes to first-parties everything I'm pretty sure no additions are necessary. I'll sleep on it.

Where did you get the Claus picture from? I'd like to see the full thing.

It's a CSP made by SJS!

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Well I mean, with exclusion of the troll Reckless Wii Remote Guy and the crazy amount of third-parties people want, the current chart has every big front runner in the ballot.

I guess we could humor Banjo and Shovel Knight at the very least, but when it comes to first-parties everything I'm pretty sure no additions are necessary. I'll sleep on it.
It's a CSP made by SJS!

Thanks for the pic. Doesn't Daisy have a relatively high number of people requesting her in Japan? I think she might be the only 1st party character really worth adding to the chart at this point.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Thanks for the pic. Doesn't Daisy have a relatively high number of people requesting her in Japan? I think she might be the only 1st party character really worth adding to the chart at this point.

Daisy only really gained popularity when both Rosalina was added as a character and when Waluigi was an assist trophy again. And again, not until the game was released becasue we all thought Rose was gonna be it for Mario characters. BowJo and the Koopalings surprised us.

And once again @ AEMehr , you have the best avatars.

 

[AEMehr]

Thanks for the pic. Doesn't Daisy have a relatively high number of people requesting her in Japan? I think she might be the only 1st party character really worth adding to the chart at this point.

So for whatever reason, the pic isn't working right now... Did you end up actually seeing it?

Also, for Daisy I am with Guybrush in saying that she never really held a candle to Rosa / Waluigi / Bowser Junior / Toad / etc.
Granted, Rosalina only started really becoming so notable when she started appearing in absolutely everything a good couple of months before her reveal trailer. But since Daisy is always neglected to the spinoffs, she's always been under the radar. It's something I would consider along with the addition of third-parties at least. Though Daisy's popularity in the unofficial polls that have been publicised, from what I've seen, aren't comparable to those characters in the slightest so iunno. :U

And thanks @ Guybrush20X6 , you're too kind haha.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

So for whatever reason, the pic isn't working right now... Did you end up actually seeing it?

Also, for Daisy I am with Guybrush in saying that she never really held a candle to Rosa / Waluigi / Bowser Junior / Toad / etc.
Granted, Rosalina only started really becoming so notable when she started appearing in absolutely everything a good couple of months before her reveal trailer. But since Daisy is always neglected to the spinoffs, she's always been under the radar. It's something I would consider along with the addition of third-parties at least. Though Daisy's popularity in the unofficial polls that have been publicised, from what I've seen, aren't comparable to those characters in the slightest so iunno. :U

And thanks @ Guybrush20X6 , you're too kind haha.

I did end up seeing the picture, haha. I don't see Daisy happening, but I thought she might be worth adding due to being extremely recognizable and popular. I don't know, it's up to you of course.