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[YoshiandToad]

Paper Mario
Chance: 4%
Honestly I've never really been that confident in Paper Mario's chances; apart from trophies he hasn't received much attention from the Smash Bros. series. I also imagine Sakurai would rather bring back Dr. Mario if he wants a spinoff secondary Mario.

**** dammit Sakurai. Timing!

Chance: 22%.
Apparently Paper Mario IS getting stuff outside a trophy this time. Still another Mario character, and other series have had stages in the past but no playable character. Still quite a boost.

Want: 8%
I love TTYD intensely but the latest one far less so. If common enemy species partners would be in his moveset(aka my favourite part of Paper Mario) I could bump this up to 55%, but when it comes to the Mario options there's just others I'd rather see first; Captain Toad(obviously) or regular Toad(also obviously) but also even my previously biggest disliked character in Bowser Jr.

He has plenty of potential, but I generally dislike having two versions of the same person on a single roster...heck I hate the Mario Kart 8 Roster for having 3 Marios, 3 Peaches, 2 Luigis, 2 Daisys and 2 Rosalinas.

Birdo
Chance: 2%
A very slim chance of being a Yoshi clone, I can see Birdo at absolute best being a Yoshi alt(with the tongue made transparant so she appears to 'suck' the enemy closer), at worst a trophy in SSB4.

Want: 24%
As a Yoshi main and a SMB2 fan to boot, I'd not be adverse to getting Birdo as a Yoshi semi clone...I just would prefer other Mario based characters first. Yoshi covers my egg throwing needs well enough on his own.

Predictions:
The other Lucas: 0.07%
This idea is SO bad. But I don't love it.
Masked Dedede as a Final Smash: 60%
Something interesting is happening with Dedede for sure.

 

[The Light Music Club]

I knew this would happen... Paper Mario stage revealed today..

 

[Deleted member]

Time to slap a CONFIRMED sticker onto this stage

14. Paper Mario: 25.90% chance, 87.77% want

Paper Mario

Chance: 10% - I was originally going to give him a 5% rating but then the stage happened to show up!
Want: 20%

Birdo

Chance: 2%
Want: 0% - No thanks

Nomination:

Andy x5

 

[Kalimdori]

In the risk of sounding repetitive, oh the irony...

 

[mini paincakes]

Paper Mario
Chance: 4%
Honestly I've never really been that confident in Paper Mario's chances; apart from trophies he hasn't received much attention from the Smash Bros. series. .

Of course you say that right before this gets posted

I'll give him a 20% chance since Paper mario has good moveset potential, is somewhat popular and has this new stage. Of course he's not likely since Mario has a lot of reps and I'm not even sure if were getting another mario rep (well I guess he could he his own series but still...)

Want- 100%: My top newcomer tied with K.Rool, Ridley and Shulk (and takamaru )

Birdo

Chance- 1%: Wont get in before waluigi, toad, bowser jr, or paper mario as mario rep. It's not happening unless Sakurai goes insane

Want- 5%: U wot m8?

 

[TechPowah]

SO HOW 'BOUT THAT PAPER MARIO CHANCE?
Paper Mario would be boss, though. Not sure if i'll be able to rate, however.

 

[a Link to the Forums]

Oh what a coincidence. A Paper mario stage is revealed on the same day we're nominating him.

Paper Mario:
Chance: 10%
The Paper Mario stage is the only thing really in favour of him. Though, that alone doesn't sell me on him.
Want: 10%
Nah.

Birdo:
Chance: 0.01%
A character who was originally an enemy in a pretty unpopular Mario game who hasn't been seen too often with Mario Kart 8 not featuring her then your chances are looking very slim.
Want: 0%
Um, no.

Predictions:
Masked Triple D final smash - 35%
Other Lucas - abstain

Noms:
Ghirahim rerate x 5

 

[Tikivoy]

Birdo: Double Zeroes.

Paper Mario: Chance: 25% I guess there's a bigger chance for him now that we have a Paper Mario stage.
Want: 75% Save Toad, I actually think he'd be a better addition then most other Mario characters that we haven't had playable yet.

 

[TechPowah]

Inb4 everyone changes their chance scores/rates higher than they would have for Paper Mario because of the new stage.

 

[Delzethin]

Let's not jump to conclusions, everyone. A Paper Mario stage could mean something, but remember, Animal Crossing got a stage a full game before it got a character.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Of course you say that right before this gets posted

Oh the irony (Again). Okay; first Takamaru and now this. Groose knows something.

Ammending my Paper Mario Chance score to 22% chance. Unless having a stage also means we're getting a Nintendog playable.

 

[~Krystal~]

Paper Mario

Chance: 100%
He's all but assured now.

Want: 100%
I'm glad Sakurai finally came to his senses. His omission from Brawl was the most glaring one, quite honestly.

Birdo

Double zeroes.

 

[Morbi]

Paper Mario Chance: .01%

I have ample reason to believe that Dr. Mario is the variant of Mario that will be included in Smash based on Sakurai's assertions pertaining to clone characters and alternate costumes, it would be completely and utterly irrational to have three incarnations of Mario playable in one game, thus I feel as though Paper Mario is one of the least likely characters that I have ever had the pleasure of rating. The stage does not alter this notion drastically, it illuminates that he is receiving content, this is indeed the case. However, the nature of the stage insinuates that he will not have a Wii U stage. Obviously, a stage on each console version would be staggering evidence in his favor. I see little point as the stage is an amalgamation of Paper Mario content as far as I am aware thus making the sentiment counter-intuitive; albeit, if it is not a 3DS exclusive stage, I could be wrong. For the time being, I feel as though it is safe to proclaim that he is essentially confirmed as something other than playable, whether that be a stage element or an assist trophy, I am not entirely certain. Regardless, this is the first time that I have rated a character this low that was not a third-party character.

Paper Mario Want: 0%

I do hate being incorrect, I dislike it very much.

 

[Nat Perry]

Paper Mario

Chances: 20-35%

Want: 100% So much potential. Not sure how his mechanics would work but the potential is there. Maybe being able to choose partners at the character select screen, or change partners mid-battle? That might pose problems yet the potential is still there.


Birdo

Chances: 0%

Want: 10% I can't really see what she'd bring to the table. Shooting eggs and sucking people is all I can think of. Mecha Birdo is a potential Final Smash. Overall I don't see it.

 

[ShrekItRalph]

Paper Mario stage? I better change my ratings because this obviously confirms Birdo

Paper Mario:
Want 10%
Chance 20%
It's Mario but flat, no thank you. I always thought that Paper Mario would be better repped by a stage then having Paper Mario playable, and I think that will be the case.

Birdo
Want 5%
Chance 1%
If people thought Rosalina wasn't important enough to be a playable Mario rep, I don't think people will be very happy if Birdo got in.

Vote thing X5 Playable Inkling

Masked Dedede as a Final Smash: 40%

Lucas:
It will be bad

So Bad

 

[Rockaphin]

Ah yes, my most wanted, Paper Mario:
Chance: 35%
After today's PotD, I bumped his chances up about 20%. Dat stage is smexy.

Want: 100%
I've wanted Paper Mario ever since the release of Paper Mario on the 64. And I'm assuming he wouldn't be a clone for my ratings. Being a Mario clone simply doesn't fit his character. While it's possible that he could be a clone, I highly doubt it. His games introduced many new things to the Mario franchise. Half of the Zelda characters, as of now, are alternate versions of existing characters. One of the two Metroid characters is an alternate version of an existing character. One alternate version of Nintendo's mascot will not kill anyone, especially if he brings something to the table. God forbid a different version of Mario. Also, he's made of Paper, there isn't a single character on the roster that is a paper object. No Mr. G&W is not paper, the two are quite visually different.

Bottom-line is that Paper Mario could potentially be one of the most unique characters introduced into Smash, but he could also be the character with the most wasted potential. As a huge fan of Paper Mario, this is sadly a possibility. Likely? Probably not, but I still acknowledge that it's possible.

Paper Mario

Chance: 100%
He's all but assured now.

I hope you're right!

Birdo:
Chance: 0.02%
Want: 0%

Birdo is a Mario character. One that many would like to forget about.

. . . I was typing up a good essay and tried posting it, however the site went down for maintenance. So bye bye long post.

 

[TheDarkKnightNoivern]

Paper Mario Chance: .01%

I have ample reason to believe that Dr. Mario is the variant of Mario that will be included in Smash based on Sakurai's assertions pertaining to clone characters and alternate costumes, it would be completely and utterly irrational to have three incarnations of Mario playable in one game, thus I feel as though Paper Mario is one of the least likely characters that I have ever had the pleasure of rating. The stage does not alter this notion drastically, it illuminates that he is receiving content, this is indeed the case. However, the nature of the stage insinuates that he will not have a Wii U stage. Obviously, a stage on each console version would be staggering evidence in his favor. I see little point as the stage is an amalgamation of Paper Mario content as far as I am aware thus making the sentiment counter-intuitive; albeit, if it is not a 3DS exclusive stage, I could be wrong. For the time being, I feel as though it is safe to proclaim that he is essentially confirmed as something other than playable, whether that be a stage element or an assist trophy, I am not entirely certain. Regardless, this is the first time that I have rated a character this low that was not a third-party character.

Paper Mario Want: 0%

I do hate being incorrect, I dislike it very much.

I don't see the problem with having multiple incarnations of the same character as long as they play uniquely and paper mario could potentially be one of the most unique fighters to date

 

[Rockaphin]

I don't see the problem with having multiple incarnations of the same character as long as they play uniquely and paper mario could potentially be one of the most unique fighters to date

I agree, if all alternate versions of characters were lacking unique content, then they would not have support. Look at Dark Pit for example or Classic Ganon. People want them because they have material that they could potentially bring something new.

 

[~Krystal~]

I'm not in the least opposed to having multiple variants of Mario on the same roster. If anything, it would make for a phenomenal three-way rivalry.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Paper Mario chances: 20 %
A second Mario newcommer would be cool and not impossible given how important the franchise is to Nintendo, but I'm not sure than we have a strong pick for another Mario newcommer. But after all, Rosalina was really unexpected, so why not someone like Paper Mario. If he has a stage, then a character would be expectable, but the problem is than Sakurai explicitely said "Paper Mario" in his post, and newcommers are generally not named before being officially revealed. Still, in "Pseudo-Palutena", there is the word "Palutena"... I'm not sure than he's likely, but I still believe in his chances, given than he even has his own trophy in SSBB.

Paper Mario want: 25 %
I don't care about him much, given than I played a lot of Mario games, but never touched any Paper Mario game. Plus he's just Mario with a different art style, at least Link and Toon Link are clearly canonically different characters in Zelda universe. But if he has different physics from the original Mario and a moveset that's not too inspired from him but more from the Paper Mario universe, i'm fine. Otherwise the Paper Mario stage could be enough to represent this part of the Mario franchise into Smash Bros.

Birdo chances: 2 % and want: 1 %
She made her debuts as a vilain in old Mario games then appeared pretty much only as Mario Kart and party-game character. I highly doubt than she will get the Rosalina treatment, because I'm not sure than Sakurai found a cool and gimmick moveset like her.

Lucas (The Wizard) prediction: 0,09 % chances
Masked Dedede prediction : 67,9 % chances

Nominating:
> Playable newcommer: Magikarp x5

 

[Jubileus57]

It's convenient we get a Paper Mario stage the day we rate Paper Mario on this thread. That's what one calls destiny.
Anyways.
Paper Mario Chances: 45% Thanks to the (amazing) new stage revealed today.
Paper Mario Want: 100%. He's one of my three most wanted characters with Bandana Dee and Bayonetta.

Birdo chances: 1% Nah. Not gonna happen anytime soon.
Birdo Want: 0% So much Mario characters that are more deserving...

 

[FalKoopa]

Paper Mario: 20%
Today's picture filled me with hope that he stands a good chance.

Want: 95%
Paper Mario and TTYD are amazing games, and so is the stage shown. I'd love to see him.

Birdo: 0%
I don't really need to explain.

Want: 1%
That one percent is because of being notoriously gender ambiguous.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Paper Mario:
Chance: 10%
Want: 90%

Birdo:
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Sal Romanominations:
Mega Mewtwo x5

Frederiktions:
Wizard: 0.41%
Meta DeDeDe: 32.6%

 

[Mega Hawlucha]

Paper Mario
Chance: 25%
Stage really works in his favor, but Smashville was also a stage in Sm4sh and that didn't come to anything. Other than that, i don't think there's much going for Paper Mario, other than the Paper Peach trophy.
Want: 80%
As an advocate for another form of Mario, I'd much prefer a unique Mario like Paper Mario rather than a clone 8-Bit Mario or Dr. Mario.

Birdo

I like him/her (however the character identifies in Ninty's eyes now), but I've not really seen her in anything other than Mario Party so I don't know what moves she could pull off.

Double zeroes.

 

[TheDarkKnightNoivern]

Paper Mario chances: 20 %
A second Mario newcommer would be cool and not impossible given how important the franchise is to Nintendo, but I'm not sure than we have a strong pick for another Mario newcommer. But after all, Rosalina was really unexpected, so why not someone like Paper Mario. If he has a stage, then a character would be expectable, but the problem is than Sakurai explicitely said "Paper Mario" in his post, and newcommers are generally not named before being officially revealed. Still, in "Pseudo-Palutena", there is the word "Palutena"... I'm not sure than he's likely, but I still believe in his chances, given than he even has his own trophy in SSBB.

Paper Mario want: 25 %
I don't care about him much, given than I played a lot of Mario games, but never touched any Paper Mario game. Plus he's just Mario with a different art style, at least Link and Toon Link are clearly canonically different characters in Zelda universe. But if he has different physics from the original Mario and a moveset that's not too inspired from him but more from the Paper Mario universe, i'm fine. Otherwise the Paper Mario stage could be enough to represent this part of the Mario franchise into Smash Bros.

Birdo chances: 2 % and want: 1 %
She made her debuts as a vilain in old Mario games then appeared pretty much only as Mario Kart and party-game character. I highly doubt than she will get the Rosalina treatment, because I'm not sure than Sakurai found a cool and gimmick moveset like her.

Lucas (The Wizard) prediction: 0,09 % chances
Masked Dedede prediction : 67,9 % chances

Nominating:
> Playable newcommer: Magikarp x5

But paper mario is the name of the game, he wasn't refering to paper mario the character

 

[JaidynReiman]

Birdo: Double 0's

Paper Mario
Chance: 15%, sorry guys, I don't think a stage makes him that likely to appear. We already have Mario anyway.
Want: 0%, I don't want doubles of existing characters. Sheik and ZSS are only justified as they were part of the same character at one point.


Nominations:
Brash the Bear x5

 

[Groose]

Mr. Sakurai? I'd appreciated it if you stopped lurking here and messing around with us by revealing stuff at the perfect moment. It's getting pretty old.

...but, hey... Why don't you join us and rate some chances? I think you'd be good at this game...

 

[Jdaster64]

Paper Mario:
33% Chance. Yesterday I would've said something on the lines of 5-10%, but today's P's-otD give him a pretty significant boost in possibility, in my opinion. A stage alone isn't enough to warrant a super high chance, but at the same time, I'd be hard-pressed to find another named newcomer with better evidence at this point, and it's certainly not the first time a stage preceded a character reveal.
Want: 100%. This guy was pretty much the only new character I wanted in Brawl; granted, at that point, I was only really a fan of the Mario series. However, he's still pretty much my favorite potential addition, and I think there's been a shameful lack of substantial representation of the Mario RPGs in Smash until now (one music track and a bunch of stickers/trophies). Plus, unlike some other newcomers I'd like, there's virtually no way to go wrong with his moveset; they'd have to bend over backwards to make him a Mario clone (honestly, Game & Watch would be more likely).

Birdo:
1% Chance. No substantial evidence at all, and Birdo's a pretty minor character in her own series, all things considered.
Want: 1%. Come on, there are at least a few far better Mario representatives out there (present company, first and foremost).

 

[Chase]

PAPER MARIO -
- 75% Chance - Dat stage doe.
- 100% Want - I love Paper Mario, it's a great game (except the bad one).

BIRDO
- Double zeroes - Ew.

 

[Pureownege75]

Paper Mario​

Chance: 15%
I was going to give him a 10% chance, but today's pictures bumped him up. The stage could totally mean nothing (and it probably does), but seeing as representation from Mario spin-offs is traditionally limited, this is a good sign towards his inclusion. I think he'd make a superb candidate for DLC and Smash 5 though. The only question is whether he'd be considered a Mario rep or Paper Mario Rep...
Want: 75%
Despite only playing one of his games (Super Paper Mario) he's in my top 5 most wanted. I have no problem with seeing two Mario's in the game, so long as they aren't clones of each other, which I know won't happen because Paper Mario has a SO much moveset potential. He could also bring Mario & Luigi representation with him, as the two RPG series are traditionally associated with each other.

Birdo​

Chance: 0%
Not notable enough, and another Mario rep is VERY unlikely. (S)he's been getting phased out of Mario games recently, with her lack of inclusion in Mario Party and Mario Kart. The best she could hope for is trophy
Want: 0%
Most of the time, when I give 0% want, it means I don't care about the character. This is the first time it means I genuinely dislike the character. I'd be incredibly upset to see her/him in any form in this game

Nominations
Olimar Alternate Costumes (Louie, President, Alph, Brittany, Charlie) x3
Balance Patches x2

 

[Paper Maribro]

Paper Mario:
Chance: I'm gonna go really rough here and say 40%. Probably a little bit biased because I really want him in but after the PotD today, Sakurai's love for unique, left of field characters, he's got a decent shot.
Want: 100%. No two ways about it, I've wanted him since Pre-Brawl days. I've always loved the series, I've even voted for him to be a part of the P:M clone engine (Assuming he doesn't get into Smash 4). His potential for a unique and fun moveset is almost infinite as is his potential for an amazing trailer (check out the Paper Mario thread for some fan ideas). Would gain a cult following I'm sure.

 

[FalKoopa]

Hey look, new shiny charts!

Top 10 of Want

Top 10 of Chance

​

With the slew of recent confirmations and disconfirmations, the charts are taking on more and more bizarre looks.

 

[Skyblade12]

Paper Mario -
Chance - 3%
I'm sorry, the stage doesn't mean much. Especially, since, as has been pointed out, it's an amalgamation of many Paper Mario elements. If it was just Sticker Star, we could get a Thousand Year Door stage on the Wii U, etcetera. But to have them all on one console doesn't seem to help.
Then too, there would be a lot of outrage if we got another Mario before we got Mewtwo back, or before Ridley showed up, etcetera. Mario may be iconic, and Paper Mario would play very differently, but I can't see him being well received. We have Mario, Luigi, and potentially Doctor Mario already, not to mention Peach, DK, Rosalina, Bowser... I think Rosalina is the only new Mario character we're getting. Too many franchises still lack enough faces on the roster for everyone to be happy with another Mario.
Want - 3%
He's cool, I'd want him in, and if we had a 100 man roster, he'd be in there somewhere, I'm sure. But there are too many others I want in first.

Birdo -
Chance - 0%
Multiply everything I said about fan outrage by a thousand if Birdo gets in. Birdo is, frankly, nothing. To give another character slot to a minor Mario villain would bring so much hate it wouldn't even be funny.
Want - 0%
It's Birdo.

 

[NintenRob]

Paper Mario
Chance: 14% We already have Rosalina and Paper Mario isn't a big enough sub series to warrant a rep when we still have other Mario characters who aren't Mario.
Want: 2% Why? He is just mario with a different art style. I don't care if he wouldn't be a clone. At least with Toon Link he is a separate incarnation and ZSS and Sheik made sense when they were added and kept around for being veterans.

Birdo
Chance: 1%
Want: 1%

I have nothing against Birdo but really?

Nominate Parabo & Satebo x3 (I AM doing this right aren't I?)

 

[Deleted member]

Hey look, new shiny charts!

Top 10 of Want

Top 10 of Chance

​

With the slew of recent confirmations and disconfirmations, the charts are taking on more and more bizarre looks.

It's so nice to see Shulk so high up in chance and want...
still anoys me that Sceptile is so high, possibly above Mewtwo though

Anyway, I was supposed to rate some chances, wasn't I...

Paper Mario:
Chance - 10%: I don't see him as that likely, and today's pic in my opinion doesn't really do much for his chances. If all Mario stages meant something, we'd have a Mario character primarily known for their role in spin-off games as a playable character in Brawl, because Mario Circuit.

Want - 90%: That being said, I'd love for Paper Mario to be playable. I have fond memories of playing the original N64 game at Church, (yes, really) and I'm really enjoying what I've played of Thousand Year Door so far. Xenoblade and Fire Emblem have side-tracked me though... In terms of newcomers, the only character I'd want more would be Shulk. I would be slightly annoyed if he was playable over certain returning veterans though...*cough* LUCAS *cough*

Double Birdo Mouths (0's) for Birdo.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

There is one piece of evidence in favor of Birdo:

Waluigi.
To be specific, the series Waluigi falls under in this game, the Wario one.

With Waluigi being under the Wario series, it's not a big stretch to think Birdo is in fact the Yoshi newcomer.

PAPER MARIO, FOLD IN A FLAMESHIELD.

 

[Kenith]

Paper Mario:
Chance: 20%. Well, this stage is certainly a surprise. I don't think it changes much, frankly. Anyway, I think Paper Mario is the best bet among the potential sixth Mario characters, as his visual creativity and large arsenal of interesting moves would make him stand out from his 3d counterpart greatly. However, if there's a second Mario on the roster, Dr. Mario might be more likely.

Want: 90%. Paper Mario is my favorite sub-series of the Mario universe, and Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door is one of my favorite games ever. Mario himself in these games is actually quite entertaining in these games as opposed to how "vanilla" he is in the platformers, and I would really love to see this version of him.

Birdo:
Chance: 0.1%. Call me crazy, but Birdo doesn't seem that likely. Not only is Birdo not popular, it's actually quite unpopular. I could see why, as it is essentially a gender-confused, pink nozzle-mouthed Yoshi with a hair bow. It has almost nothing to differentiate it from other fighters, and most of the things it can do and already done by Yoshi.

Want: 0%. I support a gender-confusing character for Smash Bros. This is not that character.

====== Nominations ======
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x3
Jill Valentine x2

 

[Skyblade12]

There is one piece of evidence in favor of Birdo:

Waluigi.
To be specific, the series Waluigi falls under in this game, the Wario one.

With Waluigi being under the Wario series, it's not a big stretch to think Birdo is in fact the Yoshi newcomer.

PAPER MARIO, FOLD IN A FLAMESHIELD.

Except that Birdo isn't one of Yoshi's typical enemies. We'd be far more likely to see any of the bosses from New Yoshi's Island. That argument is much more valid for Kamek than Birdo. And I really doubt Kamek.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Except that Birdo isn't one of Yoshi's typical enemies. We'd be far more likely to see any of the bosses from New Yoshi's Island. That argument is much more valid for Kamek than Birdo. And I really doubt Kamek.

The point I'm making is that Waluigi hasn't appeared in the Wario series, but is still representing it.
Birdo could do the same (but she's probably an assist)

 

[Skyblade12]

The point I'm making is that Waluigi hasn't appeared in the Wario series, but is still representing it.
Birdo could do the same (but she's probably an assist)

You're right. I hadn't realized that Waluigi never appeared in a main game, only sports and puzzle titles.

Despite this, Waluigi is at least associated with Wario in the games he appears in. He first showed up as one of Wario's partners.

Birdo has no connection to Yoshi at all.