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yeahWhat ELStalky said about the Meteor. Also if you hit with the lower hitbox at all (even if you also hit with the meteor hitbox) then the meteor won't take effect; you have to hit with just the upper hitbox.
Misfire is pure chance; no matter what you do, it's always a static 12.5%. I don't know what cycles the Random Number Generator, but it cannot be controlled by a player under normal circumstances (there are however many tool-assisted speedruns that manipulate the RNG, including this one of a Very Hard All-Star mode run with Luigi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMN_S5bCB6c).
Other seeming random elements in Melee can be controlled, however. Mr Game & Watch's Judgement is one example (you can't get the last 2 numbers that you got, and at the beginning of the match it's as if you had already used a 1 and a 2).