How can we predict reveals?

[Swamp Sensei]

During pre-Brawl, most of the characters were revealed randomly with little to no similarities when it comes to their reveals. It made every reveal a hype building surprise but, this seems to have changed this time around.

As of right now, there have been twelve post E3 character reveals.

Olimar
Luigi
Peach
Toon Link
Sonic
Marth
Rosalina & Luma
Zelda
King Dedede
Lucario
Little Mac
Diddy Kong

Ten of these are veterans. Two of them are newcomers. And believe it or not, these characters have a lot of similarities in their reveals.These similarities might actually show us a criteria or pattern, if you will, that these reveals seem to be following. These things may not end up being concrete but as of now, they could give us a clue as to when reveals could be!


1. Watch that banner!

We won't get a new reveal until the "Challenger Approaching" banner goes away. The sooner it goes away, the sooner we get a character, so don't expect a new reveal until that banner goes away. I was actually able to predict Toon Link's reveal (though I didn't expect it to be Toon Link, I thought it'd be Zelda) because the banner disappeared more quickly then it had before and a big game (WW HD) was on the horizon.

EDIT: Not entirely sure what to say about this one now. Sonic destroyed this point. Then again it may be a special case. This was further destroyed by the banner not going down in between Rosalina and Zelda.

EDIT 2: This was also destroyed by it staying up between Zelda and King Dedede.

EDIT 3: THE BANNER MEANS NOTHING ANYMORE! SAKURAI WHY?!?! Diddy was revealed right after Little Mac and the banner was still up. The banner basically means nothing.

2. Reveals don't have to happen once a month.

Self explanatory. Peach and Toon Link both being revealed in September prove us that multiple reveals can happen in one month. Although it probably won't happen without some time in between reveals. Rosalina & Luma and Zelda were also both revealed in December. Furthermore, Dedede and Lucario were both revealed in January. To top it off both Little Mac and Diddy Kong were revealed in February!

3. Promotion is key!

5 of the 12 reveals we've had (Olimar, Toon Link, Zelda and King Dedede and Diddy Kong) have been tied to release dates for big Nintendo games: Pikmin 3, The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD, The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds, Kirby: Triple Deluxe and Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze respectively. This release date is usually be the Japanese one (Pikmin 3, Wind Waker HD, Link Between Worlds, Triple Deluxe) or the American/European one (Tropical Freeze). Although, it seems that Sakurai values Japanese release dates much more. I Also these releases speak mainly for physical copies, not digital ones.

Furthermore, it seems that if a game is getting promotion, Sakurai will pick the character in the roster that can promote it the most. Toon Link was the character who could promote Wind Waker HD the most, so he was picked. Possible hiddeness and low priority was thrown aside for promotion.

Unfortunately, this is not always the case. Huge titles have been released and have gotten no character. Pokemon X and Y was one of the biggest releases for the system. Yet, no character was revealed to coincide with it. This may have been because of it's release being on a weekend or because of two characters being reveal close to the release. Regardless, big games do not always mean a character.

EDIT: Also, characters don't have to be revealed on a release date to advertise a game. Peach and Rosalina both advertise Super Mario 3D World, although neither were revealed when it came out. Marth also advertises Fire Emblem Awakening (as well as FE12 in Japan). Little Mac advertises Punch Out!! (Wii).

EDIT 2: In an odd exception, Lucario doesn't advertise any game in particular. He advertises Pokemon as a whole. Then again, there was never any real exclusive X and Y website. It was a part of the main Pokemon website.

Here's a neat little chart with tons of release dates for you to speculate on.
http://smashboards.com/threads/the-upcoming-game-release-timeline.342395/#post-16195268

4. Reveals aren't always dependent on releases.

Peach, Marth, Lucario, Rosalina & Luma and Little Mac were all released on dates that had nothing to do with their series's recent releases.

5. Unlockability may not matter.

Luigi, Sonic, Marth, Toon Link and Lucario were revealed early this time around. Traditionally these were unlockable characters. This may have changed but if it hasn't, unlockability doesn't matter in regards to reveals.

6. General Directs may be goldmines!

In every General Nintendo Direct we've had, we got a character reveal. Luigi and Sonic were both revealed in directs. It wouldn't be out there to assume we will get one every general direct. Granted we probably will get a character that corresponds to a subject of the direct.

EDIT: Rosalina & Luma cement this theory even more. Furthermore, it seems that when a direct has smash news, Sakurai posts on his twitter about it the night before. Watch out for them tweets!

EDIT 2: Little Mac was revealed in a Nintendo Direct! Sakurai tweeted about it the night before and the previous day's caption told people to be sure to watch it. At this point I think it's safe to say that big worldwide Nintendo Directs will always give either a newcomer or a high profile veteran (such as third parties, Luigi and possibly Mewtwo or Roy).

7. Sometimes, nothing matters! It's Sakurai, he does stuff when he wants!

Yeah. Marth's reveal proved that sometimes, he just feels like doing his own thing. He even used Marth to advertise Awakening. It's Sakurai after all. We need to remember that any possible pattern can be thrown out at any possible time. Then again, he may go back to it as well. We'll have to see.

8. Anniversaries MAY mean something!

Lucario in a surprising twist way revealed on Brawl's anniversary. However, it seems to be the only anniversary that Sakurai has done anything special for.


I know a lot of this may seem obvious, but I think this deserves a thread to tell new or uninformed people what the majority of the board has found. If it doesn't then lock it up, never to be seen again!

Either way.

DISCUSS!

 

[MasterOfKnees]

A pretty good summary of what we know thus far, and I'm sure we'll have to throw in more points in here somewhere down the line.

 

[Curious Villager]

A good summary indeed. If anniversaries do count as well then I guess we could expect characters that don't have any upcoming games to be revealed during their anniversaries. So characters like the Ice Climbers could be revealed when their respective (Most likely Japanese) anniversaries occur.

 

[Toon link04]

Good sumary I dont really see too many missing points

 

[KingofPhantoms]

This is a pretty good summary, Swamp.

Though I'm not certain it will apply to every character. So far every character that has been revealed has been in at least one prievous Smash game, as you noted in the thread. I guess we can assume it will apply to newcomers as well, but we can't be certain as of yet. IIRC Sakurai has stated that newcomers will get trailers instead of just being shown from a pic. I'm assuming such trailers would be released around the same time the daily pics are, on Youtube and the video being available on the Smash 4 site.

I think we can expect veterans and newcomers to be revealed this way, at least for a while.

 

[Xigger]

That first point isn't often brought up. Now my question is:

Can we find out when the Challenger Approaching banner disappeared each time? That knowledge could help if, say, it always disappeared one to two weeks before another character reveal.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

That first point isn't often brought up. Now my question is:

Can we find out when the Challenger Approaching banner disappeared each time? That knowledge could help if, say, it always disappeared one to two weeks before another character reveal.

I'm pretty sure that the banner lasted for two weeks for Olimar and Luigi.

Peach's banner was only up for one week.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Luigi's banner was up for over two weeks, I know I noticed since it dissappeared two days after Sakurai put Ridley's chances in jeopardy with the Pyrosphere announcement.

 

[Xigger]

I'm pretty sure that the banner lasted for two weeks for Olimar and Luigi.

Peach's banner was only up for one week.

That looks exactly like the banner disappears exactly halfway between each reveal, precise dates disregarded. Why not make a more specific note of that?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

That looks exactly like the banner disappears exactly halfway between each reveal, precise dates disregarded. Why not make a more specific note of that?

I kinda want a more exact date before I change the OP.

 

[Glaciacott]

For reference, just in case, here are anniversaries of Nintendo veterans (dates of japanese releases) who don't have games on the horizon:

Ice Climbers: January 30
Game and Watch: April 28 (the release of Ball, the first one based on what I found)
Wario: October 21 (in Super Mario Land 2)
R.O.B.: July 26 in jp, October 18 in us. (Including American release due to sheer significance of his impact in the western video game market)
Meta Knight/Dedede: April 27
Falco: February 21
Captain Falcon: November 21
Ness: July 27 (of Mother ... Earthbound was an August release, I believe, and thus impossible by now)
Lucas: April 20 (incidentally the release date of Marth's Fire Emblem and Ike's Fire Emblem as well ... )

Only one that seems remotely likely is Ice Climbers. Too early to tell what will happen in April as that seems a popular month for anniversaries.

 

[Curious Villager]

Would you guys think that Virtual Console releases could also indicate that a character of said series be revealed in order to promote it? With Ness I believe it was too late as Earthbound was rereleased on the Wii U virtual console way before Smash Bros Wii U and 3DS were even revealed I believe. But say if they were to release a GBA Fire Emblem game through the virtual console on the Wii U for example, you think we are likely to get a reveal of Marth or someone as well? :/

I suppose we would have to wait and see for that one... :/

 

[Toon link04]

Would you guys think that Virtual Console releases could also indicate that a character of said series be revealed in order to promote it? With Ness I believe it was too late as Earthbound was rereleased on the Wii U virtual console way before Smash Bros Wii U and 3DS were even revealed I believe. But say if they were to release a Fire Emblem game through the GBA virtual console on the Wii U for example, you think we are likely to get a reveal of Marth or someone as well? :/

I suppose we would have to wait and see for that one... :/

Thats a possibility idk well just have to wait and see if characters in the virtual console get in

 

[Glaciacott]

Frankly, I'm kind of banking on the hope Nintendo finally decides to give us Mother 3, in which case I imagine Lucas being revealed to promote it.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

The simple answer... we can't.

All we know is there will be at least 35 characters in this game and there's been 16 revealed thus far so we've got more than one a month to come if all are revealed before December next year.

 

[Frostwraith]

Assuming this trend will continue, I'm willing to guess some choices:

• A Pokémon character in October due to Pokémon X/Y. Given that X/Y will be released on a Saturday, it's likely that said character may be revealed in the day before.
• Sonic Lost World will be released in late October, which could be a good opportunity to reveal Sonic, given that Lost World is a Nintendo exclusive as part of a partnership between Nintendo and Sega. Said partnership could very well extend to adding Sonic to this game, but nothing is certain.
• Zelda will likely be revealed around the time A Link Between Worlds is released. Her alter ego, Sheik, is either revealed in the same day or possibly on the anniversary of Ocarina of Time.
• Yoshi may be revealed once one of his previously announced titles is released.

What shouldn't be ruled out is that Sakurai may eventually reveal certain characters without having a date tied to them. The characters revealed so far just happened to have more marketability given there's a good number of Nintendo games released recently or that will be released in the next few months.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Well I do have high doubts that EVERY character will be revealed this way. Predicting reveals has and most likely never will be even a remotely simple task. If a month just so happens to be rather crammed with possible character reveals, they may push some character reveals back or not reveal them until release.

 

[Frostwraith]

I did some quick research and check this out:

The earliest release date for A Link Between Worlds is November 22, 2013 (North America) and Ocarina of Time was originally released on November 21, 1998 in Japan and November 23, 1998 in North America. Given the year we're in, it also means that ALBW's release date ties in with Ocarina of Time's 15th anniversary.

Zelda and Sheik reveal seems possible if the trend continues.

 

[Morbi]

Well I do have high doubts that EVERY character will be revealed this way. Predicting reveals has and most likely never will be even a remotely simple task. If a month just so happens to be rather crammed with possible character reveals, they may push some character reveals back or not reveal them until release.

Nintendo is pushing a lot of first party games Q4 this year and early next year. So it is actually possible that most characters will be revealed in correlation to their respective game. You are right though, that doesn't mean EVERY character will be. Once the trend breaks, I am sure most people will note it.

 

[Starbound]

Game anniversaries for Veteran franchises:

Donkey Kong (NES): July 15 1983 (Japan), October 19, 1985 (NA), September 1, 1986 (PAL)
Yoshi's Island (SNES): August 15, 1995 (Japan), October 4, 1995 (NA), October 6, 1995 (PAL)
WarioWare, Inc.: Mega Microgames: March 21, 2003 (Japan), May 23, 2003 (NA), May 26, 2003 (EU), June 6, 2003 (AUS)
The Legend of Zelda: February 21, 1986 (Japan), August 22, 1987 (NA), November 15, 1987 (PAL)
Metroid: August 6, 1986 (Japan), August 1987 (NA), January 1988 (PAL)
Ice Climber: January 30, 1985 (Wikipedia lacks dates for other regions)
Gyromite: August 13, 1985 (Japan), October 18, 1985 (NA), September 1, 1986 (EU)
StarFox (SNES): February 21, 1993 (Japan), March 23, 1993 (NA), June 5, 1993 (EU)
F-Zero (SNES): November 21, 1990 (Japan), August 23, 1991 (NA), June 4, 1992 (EU)
Kirby's Dream Land: April 27, 1992 (Japan), August 1, 1992 (NA), August 3, 1992 (PAL)
Pokemon Red, Green and Blue: February 27, 1996 (Japan), September 30, 1998 (NA), October 5, 1999 (EU), October 23, 1998 (AUS)
Pokemon Diamond and Pearl: September 28, 2006 (Japan), April 22, 2007 (NA), June 21, 2007 (EU), July 27, 2007 (AUS)
Fire Emblem 1: April 20, 1990
Fire Emblem 9: April 20, 2005 (Japan), October 17, 2005 (NA), November 4, 2005 (EU), December 1, 2005 (AUS)
Mother / Earthbound: July 27, 1989 (Japan), June 5, 1995 (North America)
Ball (The First Game and Watch Game): April 28, 1980 (Wikipedia lacks dates for other regions)

So October's characters could be:
Diddy Kong
Yoshi
R.O.B
Jigglypuff
Pokemon Trainer
Mewtwo
Ike

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Game anniversaries for Veteran franchises:

Donkey Kong (NES): July 15 1983 (Japan), October 19, 1985 (NA), September 1, 1986 (PAL)
Yoshi's Island (SNES): August 15, 1995 (Japan), October 4, 1995 (NA), October 6, 1995 (PAL)
WarioWare, Inc.: Mega Microgames: March 21, 2003 (Japan), May 23, 2003 (NA), May 26, 2003 (EU), June 6, 2003 (AUS)
The Legend of Zelda: February 21, 1986 (Japan), August 22, 1987 (NA), November 15, 1987 (PAL)
Metroid: August 6, 1986 (Japan), August 1987 (NA), January 1988 (PAL)
Ice Climber: January 30, 1985 (Wikipedia lacks dates for other regions)
Gyromite: August 13, 1985 (Japan), October 18, 1985 (NA), September 1, 1986 (EU)
StarFox (SNES): February 21, 1993 (Japan), March 23, 1993 (NA), June 5, 1993 (EU)
F-Zero (SNES): November 21, 1990 (Japan), August 23, 1991 (NA), June 4, 1992 (EU)
Kirby's Dream Land: April 27, 1992 (Japan), August 1, 1992 (NA), August 3, 1992 (PAL)
Pokemon Red, Green and Blue: February 27, 1996 (Japan), September 30, 1998 (NA), October 5, 1999 (EU), October 23, 1998 (AUS)
Pokemon Diamond and Pearl: September 28, 2006 (Japan), April 22, 2007 (NA), June 21, 2007 (EU), July 27, 2007 (AUS)
Fire Emblem 1: April 20, 1990
Fire Emblem 9: April 20, 2005 (Japan), October 17, 2005 (NA), November 4, 2005 (EU), December 1, 2005 (AUS)
Mother / Earthbound: July 27, 1989 (Japan), June 5, 1995 (North America)
Ball (The First Game and Watch Game): April 28, 1980 (Wikipedia lacks dates for other regions)

So October's characters could be:
Diddy Kong
Yoshi
R.O.B
Jigglypuff
Pokemon Trainer
Mewtwo
Ike

I know your doing aniverserys but you forgot sonic is possible in october promoting lost worlds the first sonic game for exclusivly the wii u besides sega racing all stars

By the way Mewtwo premotes pokemon x and y the best

 

[Starbound]

Yeah. Wasn't sure if I should do the first Sonic game ever, or the first Sonic game on a Nintendo console for Sonic. Second one probably makes more sense.

I did forget Snake though but I'm too lazy to edit.

 

[jaytalks]

.

.

.

Seeing your avatars back to back can be disorienting.

Another thing is I think Sakurai loves surprises. It's sort of his thing. So I believe that we will eventually get some that will have no connection to the date or around the date whatsoever. I keep thinking Yoshi.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Game anniversaries for Veteran franchises:

Donkey Kong (NES): July 15 1983 (Japan), October 19, 1985 (NA), September 1, 1986 (PAL)
Yoshi's Island (SNES): August 15, 1995 (Japan), October 4, 1995 (NA), October 6, 1995 (PAL)
WarioWare, Inc.: Mega Microgames: March 21, 2003 (Japan), May 23, 2003 (NA), May 26, 2003 (EU), June 6, 2003 (AUS)
The Legend of Zelda: February 21, 1986 (Japan), August 22, 1987 (NA), November 15, 1987 (PAL)
Metroid: August 6, 1986 (Japan), August 1987 (NA), January 1988 (PAL)
Ice Climber: January 30, 1985 (Wikipedia lacks dates for other regions)
Gyromite: August 13, 1985 (Japan), October 18, 1985 (NA), September 1, 1986 (EU)
StarFox (SNES): February 21, 1993 (Japan), March 23, 1993 (NA), June 5, 1993 (EU)
F-Zero (SNES): November 21, 1990 (Japan), August 23, 1991 (NA), June 4, 1992 (EU)
Kirby's Dream Land: April 27, 1992 (Japan), August 1, 1992 (NA), August 3, 1992 (PAL)
Pokemon Red, Green and Blue: February 27, 1996 (Japan), September 30, 1998 (NA), October 5, 1999 (EU), October 23, 1998 (AUS)
Pokemon Diamond and Pearl: September 28, 2006 (Japan), April 22, 2007 (NA), June 21, 2007 (EU), July 27, 2007 (AUS)
Fire Emblem 1: April 20, 1990
Fire Emblem 9: April 20, 2005 (Japan), October 17, 2005 (NA), November 4, 2005 (EU), December 1, 2005 (AUS)
Mother / Earthbound: July 27, 1989 (Japan), June 5, 1995 (North America)
Ball (The First Game and Watch Game): April 28, 1980 (Wikipedia lacks dates for other regions)

So October's characters could be:
Diddy Kong
Yoshi
R.O.B
Jigglypuff
Pokemon Trainer
Mewtwo
Ike

Wow, October is even more crammed than I thought. Not much else I have to say about this. A Pokemon rep seems most likely, as well as Sonic when it comes to Lost World's release, but Sakurai is known for being unpredictable, we could get many more than that.

 

[Starbound]

October is mostly crammed with North American releases, and one European release (Pokemon RGB). They've shown off Luigi with the American release of Dream Team, but both Wind Waker and Pikmin were for the Japanese releases.

The only October Japanese game was Gyromite. So we could see R.O.B next month, or we could see Mewtwo + Sonic. Two weeks apart is the same as Peach and Toon Link were.

If Sakurai decides to celebrate North American or Europe releases, then things get more crazy.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Heck, the reveals per month may be increasing in number or Sakurai may disregard the amount of reveals in one month at times. (I heavily doubt that he'll ever reveal more than 3 or 4 in one month though)

We might get a R.O.B. reveal, once again considering Toon Link's reveal.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

You know what i hope ROB gets revealed in october 18th because not only thats the anniversary of gyromite i was born october 18th a great birthday gift if happens

 

[Starcutter]

You know what i hope ROB gets revealed in october 18th because not only thats the anniversary of gyromite i was born october 18th a great birthday gift if happens

so THAT's why you like R.O.B. so much.


anyways, good prediction list thingy.

 

[JetpackX]

I think R.O.B. would probably be next to be revealed because of the Gyromite Anniversary

Heck, Mewtwo might be revealed next because of the Pokemon X & Y release date (October 12th).

 

[SmashKing201]

Glad to see a thread like this being created. Definitely gonna follow the discussion.

I'm concerned about Snake. I would love to have him back. But I would guess that if he is planned, how would they reveal Snake? Most of his recent/upcoming games are on different console platforms. So I would only guess that the anniversary of the early Metal Gear games will be his way of getting revealed if he is in.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I'm not too worried for Snake for that reason. I'm not certain that Snake will return, but I don't think the lack of him being revealed like the ones Olimar, Luigi, Peach and Toon Link have gotten will mean much for him. I have doubts this trend of character reveals will apply to every last character.

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

Game Announcements and Releases basically

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Game Announcements and Releases basically

Not announcements yet.

Aside from E3, we haven't had a character revealed from a game announcement.


Don't get me wrong. It's entirely possible, just hasn't happened yet.

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

Not announcements yet.

Aside from E3, we haven't had a character revealed from a game announcement.


Don't get me wrong. It's entirely possible, just hasn't happened yet.

I was thinking that when I typed it, I think Game Showoffs would be a better way to phrase it.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Glad to see a thread like this being created. Definitely gonna follow the discussion.

I'm concerned about Snake. I would love to have him back. But I would guess that if he is planned, how would they reveal Snake? Most of his recent/upcoming games are on different console platforms. So I would only guess that the anniversary of the early Metal Gear games will be his way of getting revealed if he is in.

Well, I think Snake is in the same boat as Sonic during Pre-Brawl.

I'm pretty sure Snake will be revealed at an event with a trailer and everything (as I expect all third parties to have one).

On another note: HOLY COW! I didn't expect this thread to take off like it did. I also didn't expect all those likes.

Wow!

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I think R.O.B. would probably be next to be revealed because of the Gyromite Anniversary

I hope so but the problem is i think its very likely that 2 characters is the limit for what im saying is i think its just a pokemon and sonic in october

But if any amount of character reveals is possible i would have a hype attack if 3 characters is possible in a month

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

I'm not too worried for Snake for that reason. I'm not certain that Snake will return, but I don't think the lack of him being revealed like the ones Olimar, Luigi, Peach and Toon Link have gotten will mean much for him. I have doubts this trend of character reveals will apply to every last character.

Solid Snake seemed way out of place in the Smash Bros. universe for my tastes, mostly because unlike Sonic, he never interacted with Nintendo's primary mascot (Mario, if I'm not mistaken) outside of the Smash Bros. universe.

 

[yoonb]

Have a quick question. Do we know if the "challenger approaching" banners stick around a set period of time or they just leave whenever? If we do know, that could make character prediction for the future months much easier.

 

[Nado]

Megaman is probably unlockable as well. At least in brawl all the third party characters were unlockable.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Have a quick question. Do we know if the "challenger approaching" banners stick around a set period of time or they just leave whenever? If we do know, that could make character prediction for the future months much easier.

They dissappear some time before a reveal. The Peach banner for example dissappeared after a week, where as Luigi's stuck around for a little over two weeks. If the banner is removed early, then it's likely we're getting two reveals a month, however, if it sticks around for the usual two weeks, then it's just gonna be a single character that month.