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Blast Zones and Game Time is Fine (Compiled Data from Tourney Locator's Invitation Tourney)

Thinkaman

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So here is the data from Tourney Locator's fantastic Smash 4 Invitational, put on the always-excellent Infinity and Bwett among others.

Kill Percents:
Code:
0%
4%
11%
23%
35%
37%
39%
42%
46%
47%
47%
47%
48%
48%
50%
54%
57%
58%
62%
63%
63%
64%
65%
67%
70%
70%
71%
71%
71%
71%
74%
77%
82%
85%
86%
88%
89%
91%
91%
91%
92%
93%
93%
94%
94%
98%
99%
99%
99%
100%
100%
101%
101%
102%
103%
103%
104%
105%
105%
105%
105%
106%
106%
106%
108%
108%
109%
110%
110%
110%
111%
111%
111%
111%
113%
113%
114%
114%
114%
115%
116%
116%
116%
117%
117%
118%
118%
119%
119%
119%
119%
120%
120%
120%
120%
120%
121%
121%
122%
122%
122%
122%
123%
123%
123%
123%
123%
123%
124%
124%
124%
124%
124%
126%
126%
126%
127%
127%
128%
128%
128%
128%
129%
129%
129%
129%
129%
130%
130%
131%
131%
131%
131%
132%
132%
133%
134%
135%
135%
136%
136%
137%
137%
137%
137%
137%
137%
137%
138%
138%
139%
139%
139%
140%
140%
140%
141%
141%
142%
142%
142%
144%
144%
147%
148%
149%
150%
150%
151%
151%
151%
152%
152%
152%
153%
155%
155%
155%
156%
157%
157%
158%
158%
158%
159%
159%
160%
160%
161%
161%
162%
162%
162%
163%
165%
165%
166%
168%
169%
169%
171%
172%
172%
173%
174%
177%
178%
180%
182%
182%
184%
185%
186%
190%
195%
197%
199%
202%
219%
Average: 121%

Note: This is post-hit kill percents, after taking damage. If you want pre-finisher kill percents (the level people have to be at before you can kill them), subtract around 15-20%.

2-stock Match Length:
Code:
0:57
1:24
1:25
1:26
1:32
1:38
1:38
1:40
1:41
1:41
1:43
1:55
1:59
2:05
2:10
2:11
2:14
2:20
2:20
2:20
2:22
2:22
2:28
2:34
2:34
2:37
2:39
2:42
2:43
2:46
2:49
2:51
2:56
2:58
3:02
3:04
3:06
3:08
3:11
3:15
3:18
3:21
3:26
3:28
3:30
3:30
3:35
3:36
3:44
4:02
4:21
4:40
Average: 2:38
Average per Stock: 1:19


80-second stocks are pretty tame.

3-stock Match Length:
Code:
1:14
3:04
3:08
3:28
3:43
4:08
4:21
4:21
4:33
4:35
4:36
4:39
4:59
5:03
5:29
6:22
8:00 (remaining: 1-stock 38% vs. 1-stock 101%)
Average: 4:27
Average per Stock: 1:29


We again see 90-second stocks. Games with more stocks are very slightly longer, due to additional possibility for comeback gameplay and spending slightly more of the match having a player at very high %s.

-----------

All fears of excessive game length at high level play is purely imaginary.

It's a new game. Some moves kill sooner, some moves kill slower.

As we get better at the game (both controls and understanding), we will have less SDs and better DI, but also more gimps, better kill setups, superior edgeguarding, and faster offensive play. Improved mastery of entire movesets also keeps moves fresher and makes stale moves benefit kills more often than hinder. Match length is more likely to decrease than increase, though only slightly.

Let's cut the hysteria and move on.
 
Last edited:

Amazing Ampharos

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I collaborated with this data gathering, and I will point out that even within this (pretty fast) data, there's a lot of variation based on characters. Almost every super high percent survival I saw was because Bowser is a tank who takes a lot of punishment to die moreso than anything else. Matches taking relatively long tended to be a good sign someone picked Duck Hunt though it's of note that not a one of the 2 stock matches took over 5 minutes and only a single 3 stock match took over 8 minutes with that in mind. As per the really low percent kills, some of them were off-stage flubs, but quite a fair number were just really solid gimp set-ups which are definitely a very real thing in this game that we can't ignore as a way stocks are ending.

So yeah, we pretty much don't have to worry about games taking too long; that's just not happening at least among this pool of fairly high skill players (still have had the game for less than a week!).
 

ParanoidDrone

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Interesting statistics. I find it a bit funny that 2 stocks/5 minutes had no matches going to time, but 3 stocks/8 minutes did have one, since I thought one of the arguments against 2 stocks/5 minutes was that it would discourage risk taking and encourage defensive play. It's probably a weird statistical blip though.
 

Thinkaman

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Yeah, it was a statistical fluke, where Palutena couldn't figure out how to approach ZSS for a match. The following matches (with the same characters) were shorter than average.

There was an opposite fluke in the 1:14 3-stock match, involving Diddy Kong nonsense. Neither of these extreme cases are representative of the rest of the games played, but should still be included in the data for purity's sake.
 

Big-Cat

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Jesus Christ, how long did it take to compile all that?

Just glad that the game is fine and things will change in the future, hopefully for the better.
 

Shaya

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Statistics are beautiful.

The NY/NJ scene had an invitational too, perhaps they could have those gathered too (that would basically be covering 100% of tournament data thus far?).
 
Last edited:

Thinkaman

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Jesus Christ, how long did it take to compile all that?

Just glad that the game is fine and things will change in the future, hopefully for the better.
I was watching those matches anyway; they are really good! I think Bwett is legitimately the single best commentator I've seen. Infinity is really good too.

I was talking to Ampharos online about these matches when the idea came up; I made him record the data for the matches I'd already seen, which he helpfully supplied.

Statistics are beautiful.

The NY/NJ scene had an invitational too, perhaps they could have those gathered too (that would basically be covering 100% of tournament data thus far?).
I'm watching those now, but am kind of unmotivated to collect more data; I feel like the point has been proven? These matches do seem to be ending quickly though, maybe moreso?
 
Last edited:

ParanoidDrone

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I was watching those matches anyway; they are really good! I think Bwett is legitimately the single best commentator I've seen. Infinity is really good too.

I was talking to Ampharos online about these matches when the idea came up; I made him record the data for the matches I'd already seen, which he helpfully supplied.



I'm watching those now, but am kind of unmotivated to collect more data; I feel like the point has been proven? These matches do seem to be ending quickly though, maybe moreso?
It almost certainly couldn't hurt to gather more statistics, but in the short term I think it's fairly clear that excessive camping to time just doesn't happen under either ruleset.

I am thoroughly enjoying this recent trend of using statistics to argue and back up potential rulesets.
 

Thinkaman

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It almost certainly couldn't hurt to gather more statistics
Yeah, I'm just lazy and want to actually watch some matches now. :D

The CT games went REALLY fast except for the ROB/DH games, which were like 2 minutes a stock but REALLY good matches. Some of the coolest I've seen, Chibo and RJ were great to watch.
 

ParanoidDrone

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Yeah, I'm just lazy and want to actually watch some matches now. :D

The CT games went REALLY fast except for the ROB/DH games, which were like 2 minutes a stock but REALLY good matches. Some of the coolest I've seen, Chibo and RJ were great to watch.
Are there links to these matches? I've been neglecting the streams the past couple of days. (Although it's probably more accurate to say I gave up on trying to understand who they all were and just picked VGBC since they at least used a variety of characters.)
 
Last edited:

#HBC | Ryker

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@ Thinkaman Thinkaman , you're a beautiful man and I love you. You've just made arguing for not reducing stock count on day one a million times easier by giving me hard data to back up my claims.
 

Thinkaman

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I'm seeing a pattern in these high-level matches; no one knows when moves will kill, especially throws. This means that a lot of kill moves are being wasted (staled) early. We also saw situations where we see in hindsight that Palutena could have had guaranteed kills via throw, but didn't take it because AeroLink wasn't certain.
 

Rich Homie Quan

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I've been stressing this all along and now I have some data to point to.

This is fantastic. Thanks for doing this OP :)
 

Thinkaman

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Just a note: I would avoid thinking of any rules issue as entrenched sides. We all have the same ultimate goal here, and are all trying to consider the options and determine what is best.
 

popo12

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This is really good to hear; I was afraid the game would end up being too slow. Still hoping for 2 stocks, personally, since Smash sets tend to run fairly long as is and I think snappier sets woud be easier on TOs and spectators.
 

Raijinken

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Thanks for this. Will circulate it amongst my friends.

With this, I revise my stance to favoring 2/5 for pools or lower brackets and 3/8 for full brackets or the final few rounds of full brackets.
 
Last edited:

LancerStaff

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I'm seeing a pattern in these high-level matches; no one knows when moves will kill, especially throws. This means that a lot of kill moves are being wasted (staled) early. We also saw situations where we see in hindsight that Palutena could have had guaranteed kills via throw, but didn't take it because AeroLink wasn't certain.
So basically, the pace will quicken as time goes on, so long as something big isn't found?

Hm, is there any data we can use to compare to Melee?
 

Qikz

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@ Thinkaman Thinkaman , you're a beautiful man and I love you. You've just made arguing for not reducing stock count on day one a million times easier by giving me hard data to back up my claims.
I can't agree with this more. Thanks @ Thinkaman Thinkaman .

I've thought that 2 stocks was rather silly for a long time, especially after watching Zero stream but I didn't have it in me to go and collate all this data. Thanks as welll to anyone that helped you.
 

Big-Cat

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If these statistics are true of the final game years down, 3 or even 4 stocks as the standard works.
I would still prefer two stocks. The time limit I'm not sure on because people like to bring up time-outs.
 

Smooth Criminal

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I would still prefer two stocks. The time limit I'm not sure on because people like to bring up time-outs.
Time-outs are gonna happen regardless, whether the clock runs from five minutes or eight. It's hard to quantify the frequency in this game since it is kind of early, but if I remember correctly that even in Brawl, time-outs were pretty scarce, especially at high levels of play. Of course I speak of regionals and nationals held here in the States; I don't know a whit about more concentrated local stuff here, or anything about the scenes overseas.

I don't think we have to worry about that happening here. Brawl's mechanics (innate or inborn) heavily rewarded defensive play, including abuse of ledge-grabbing to extend a lead and aerial mobility (damn you, MK). Smash 4 seems to have ameliorated these problems with a couple of tweaks (ledge mechanics, chiefly). We'll see, though.

Oh yeah, thanks @ Thinkaman Thinkaman for a great analysis.

Smooth Criminal
 
Last edited:

Overswarm

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Hi Thinkaman!

I was curious about your data as I, too, think using 2 stock / 5 minutes is only done by those who don't know any better. :B

I foudn a fairly low-skilled online tournament here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ofv8fvTs4V8&index=1&list=PLaBw5s_0ChpSHBV9ulsnOXL1Xve02ZyMK


With 2 stock, 5 minute matches. My hypothesis is that lower skilled players will take longer. Given the LARGE skill gap between the players involved in this tournament (seriously, watch it) it should be that the majority of longer matches should be earlier and as a whole, when compared to your data, should be longer. By how much I'm unsure, but I consider my data the "top end" of Smash 4 game length.

The run down: 2 stock, 5 minutes.

1 stock victories: 43 (76.786%)
2 stock victories: 16 (28.571%)

Stock remaining total (I add up all extra stock, so if a game ends with 2 stock remaining, it's +2 to the total)
First game: 33
Second game: 15
Third game :15

Total sets: 24
2 game sets: 16
3 game sets: 8
Total games: 56

Number of timeouts: 3 (5.357%)
Number of timeouts caused by the same guy in the same set: 2

Set average time: 2 minutes and 56 seconds

Average time to lose a stock: 2 minutes, 7 seconds

Keep in mind that 'average time to lose a stock' can look misleading as not every stock is lost and timeouts make things wonky. Set average time is the real king.



THINKAMAN'S AVERAGE TIME: 2 minutes 38 seconds
ONLINE TOURNAMENT AVERAGE TIME: 2 minutes 56 seconds


That's a paltry 18 second difference between competitive smashers and a group of people playing in the online tournament.

No one knows what they are doing. Games will be getting faster as even the pros are still getting the "noob" time.

Here's player data:



I'll be releasing this automated spreadsheet data sometime in the future -- I have more work to do on it yet.

Time-outs are gonna happen regardless, whether the clock runs from five minutes or eight. It's hard to quantify the frequency in this game since it is kind of early, but if I remember correctly that even in Brawl, time-outs were pretty scarce, especially at high levels of play. Of course I speak of regionals and nationals held here in the States; I don't know a whit about more concentrated local stuff here, or anything about the scenes overseas.

I don't think we have to worry about that happening here, between the scarcity of it all and all the changes to the engine.

Smooth Criminal
Timeouts at the MLG series occurred between a 1-2% rate and weren't correlated with any particular player, character or stage for Brawl.
 
Last edited:

SamuraiPanda

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So here is the data from Tourney Locator's fantastic Smash 4 Invitational, put on the always-excellent Infinity and Bwett among others.

Kill Percents:
Code:
0%
4%
11%
23%
35%
37%
39%
42%
46%
47%
47%
47%
48%
48%
50%
54%
57%
58%
62%
63%
63%
64%
65%
67%
70%
70%
71%
71%
71%
71%
74%
77%
82%
85%
86%
88%
89%
91%
91%
91%
92%
93%
93%
94%
94%
98%
99%
99%
99%
100%
100%
101%
101%
102%
103%
103%
104%
105%
105%
105%
105%
106%
106%
106%
108%
108%
109%
110%
110%
110%
111%
111%
111%
111%
113%
113%
114%
114%
114%
115%
116%
116%
116%
117%
117%
118%
118%
119%
119%
119%
119%
120%
120%
120%
120%
120%
121%
121%
122%
122%
122%
122%
123%
123%
123%
123%
123%
123%
124%
124%
124%
124%
124%
126%
126%
126%
127%
127%
128%
128%
128%
128%
129%
129%
129%
129%
129%
130%
130%
131%
131%
131%
131%
132%
132%
133%
134%
135%
135%
136%
136%
137%
137%
137%
137%
137%
137%
137%
138%
138%
139%
139%
139%
140%
140%
140%
141%
141%
142%
142%
142%
144%
144%
147%
148%
149%
150%
150%
151%
151%
151%
152%
152%
152%
153%
155%
155%
155%
156%
157%
157%
158%
158%
158%
159%
159%
160%
160%
161%
161%
162%
162%
162%
163%
165%
165%
166%
168%
169%
169%
171%
172%
172%
173%
174%
177%
178%
180%
182%
182%
184%
185%
186%
190%
195%
197%
199%
202%
219%
Average: 121%

Note: This is post-hit kill percents, after taking damage. If you want pre-finisher kill percents (the level people have to be at before you can kill them), subtract around 15-20%.

2-stock Match Length:
Code:
0:57
1:24
1:25
1:26
1:32
1:38
1:38
1:40
1:41
1:41
1:43
1:55
1:59
2:05
2:10
2:11
2:14
2:20
2:20
2:20
2:22
2:22
2:28
2:34
2:34
2:37
2:39
2:42
2:43
2:46
2:49
2:51
2:56
2:58
3:02
3:04
3:06
3:08
3:11
3:15
3:18
3:21
3:26
3:28
3:30
3:30
3:35
3:36
3:44
4:02
4:21
4:40
Average: 2:38
Average per Stock: 1:19


80-second stocks are pretty tame.

3-stock Match Length:
Code:
1:14
3:04
3:08
3:28
3:43
4:08
4:21
4:21
4:33
4:35
4:36
4:39
4:59
5:03
5:29
6:22
8:00 (remaining: 1-stock 38% vs. 1-stock 101%)
Average: 4:27
Average per Stock: 1:29


We again see 90-second stocks. Games with more stocks are very slightly longer, due to additional possibility for comeback gameplay and spending slightly more of the match having a player at very high %s.

-----------

All fears of excessive game length at high level play is purely imaginary.

It's a new game. Some moves kill sooner, some moves kill slower.

As we get better at the game (both controls and understanding), we will have less SDs and better DI, but also more gimps, better kill setups, superior edgeguarding, and faster offensive play. Improved mastery of entire movesets also keeps moves fresher and makes stale moves benefit kills more often than hinder. Match length is more likely to decrease than increase, though only slightly.

Let's cut the hysteria and move on.
Excellent data here, as usual when you and Ampharos team up. I was also curious about this tournament as they ran 2 stock swiss and 3 stock brackets.

However I do believe at the same time, 2 stock should be looked on more heavily as the standard because of For Glory mode. It allows players to practice this format and for new players to transfer into the competitive scene easier becuase they are familiar and comfortable with the stock format. Additionally (as I mentioned in my other thread) Smash runs the longest tournaments by far among fighting games. I think adopting a 2 stock format could help significantly with tournament times, finding venues open early/late enough, etc.

It is good that you cleared up misconceptions regarding time per stock. I would love to see this compared to early Brawl tournaments as well for a comparison of how much faster it could become. I do believe the game will end up fairly fast because of the new edge trumping mechanic, assuming people are gimpable after a trump.
 

Chauzu

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However I do believe at the same time, 2 stock should be looked on more heavily as the standard because of For Glory mode. It allows players to practice this format and for new players to transfer into the competitive scene easier becuase they are familiar and comfortable with the stock format. Additionally (as I mentioned in my other thread) Smash runs the longest tournaments by far among fighting games. I think adopting a 2 stock format could help significantly with tournament times, finding venues open early/late enough, etc.
So this. I'm mostly in favour of 2 stock / 5 minues because:

- Nintendo sanctioned format
- Easier to adapt for new players
- Faster matches, giving a higher tempo

I don't see any need to have matches drag on. As has been said before more succesful fighting games have shorter matches than the avarage of 2+ mins we see on display here.

At the same time I understand that the community has a certain tradition (and that my opinion means **** in the end) but I do get surprised when people think this is proof of anything regarding on what format to use. That matches are quick here doesn't mean they have to be shortened.

I also get the feeling that certain people think that those supporting 2 stocks / 5 minutes are noobs, and yes, maybe we are. But so what? I thought we all wanted the smash scene to grow? You will need us for the scene to grow bigger.
 

JamietheAuraUser

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First thing I'm doing when I get the game after deciding who I want to main is testing kill percentages on all of that character's moves, so I don't run into problems like this with my opponents living until 200% because I can't figure out how to KO. (lol ROB vs. Duck Hunt matchup.)

Honestly I used to play Smash 5-stock before later switching to 3-stock in Brawl. So it'll be weird for me to adapt to 2-stock matches in Smash 4, though I guess I'll just have to deal with it. I'll probably do most of my practice vs. CPUs rather than in For Glory mode though, just because For Glory doesn't allow custom moves and I'll want to practice with and against all kinds of movesets to figure out what I like best.
 
Last edited:

smashmachine

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2 stocks is also an admission that the 8 minute timer in Melee/Brawl is way too damn long, not just about how it compares to them in game speed (yes, Melee also takes too long as is)
 
Last edited:

Overswarm

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"Hey guys, I think Sakurai should determine our ruleset for us"

said no one convincingly, ever
 

Smooth Criminal

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Timeouts at the MLG series occurred between a 1-2% rate and weren't correlated with any particular player, character or stage for Brawl.
Mostly being facetious with the MK remark, but that is a very interesting figure.

Also, hi Overswarm! Didn't know you still existed.

Smooth Criminal
 
Last edited:

Roxas215

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Im really in favor for 2 stock being the format. It keeps with the official nintendo standard and it's just alot faster.(Maybe finals/grand finals can be 3 stock?? Even then i still think it should be 2 stock though)
 
Last edited:

Qikz

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I think the only reason for glory is 2 stock is because disconnects lead to bans and the probability of getting a disconnect goes up when the time per match goes up.
 

Lukingordex

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I don't see any need to have matches drag on. As has been said before more succesful fighting games have shorter matches than the avarage of 2+ mins we see on display here.
Smash is different from those "more succesful fighting games" though.
 

Johnknight1

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I would still prefer two stocks. The time limit I'm not sure on because people like to bring up time-outs.
Eh it all depends on how long it takes.

I would prefer the average match be somewhere in the 3-5 minute range (with occasional 1-2 minutes and 6-7 minute matches) like what Melee and Project M do and like what Brawl (with 3 stocks) isn't too far off from. I think that's the ample amount of time for a Smash game.

If that means 2 stocks, cool. If that means 3 stocks, cool. I will generally go with the data that says which is which, and my opinion will generally stay consistent on that.

There are a few exceptions to that in my opinion though,. The biggest one is the comeback factor. A great is example is Brawl where the person with the 1st KO wins roughly 3/4th's the time in a 3 stock game. People with a 2 stock lead win probably around 99% of the time. I would imagine they are more common than 3 stock leads in Melee, and the wins are about as rare. There's just not many comebacks in Brawl, which is why the 1 stock ruleset makes more sense IMO.

If something like this (the Brawl scenario) is the case, then IMO the only reasonable stock count is 1 or 2 stocks.
 
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