Marth's advantages
- Heavier
- More range overall
- Greater knockback
- Slightly harder to gimp
- Has good damaging combos at low percents
- Has a death combo at low percents as well
- Faster running speed and greater mobility overall
Falco's advantages
- Camping tactics with lasers and shine
- Evasive tactics with Phantasm
- Possible CG (Can be escaped with up b)
- Possible Death combo ( Again, it can be escaped with up b)
- Good damaging combo at lower percents off of grab. ( Dash attack cancelled u-smash)
- Good Roll
- Good spot-dodge
Marth pretty much wins in all areas, except Falco has the ability to camp him. They both have grab combos on each other as well. Overall though Marth has better damage output and a better gimp game and he will generally outlive Falco.
Since Falco has lasers Marth has to approach. When Falco jumps for a SH laser dash in. You will go under the high laser and then Falco can still shoot another which most will do. If the second laser is too high you can keep closing in. Dash to shield will keep you safe from the second laser. If you block a laser you can go for a grab if you are close enough which can beat anything he tries other then rolling away. One strategy is to space yourself just outside the range of the shine. When Falco jumps for a SHL Marth can dash in and punish Falco before he can do anything after he shoots that first laser. And since the strat involves you just being outside shine range, if he DOES try to shine he will miss and he will then be at your mercy.
Speaking of shine, it's very annoying ,but not deadly or even threatening. It does a bit of damage and there is a chance it can trip, but Falco can't take advantage of it. If it's blocked Falco is screwed and you can easily get a tipper smash. Also if Falco does the shine at close range and it doesn't trip then he is at frame disadvantage so you can still punish him. Because of these reasons, good Falcos may not use shine that often, which is fine for you since the shine inhibits your approach and can be annoying. FYI you can't SH over the shine so don't try.
As far as CGing goes, it's been said before you can up b out of them. Try to wait till you see Falco run a bit for the re-grab before you up b since Falco's will try to wait that out then punish. Falco can do D-throw Dair on Marth near the ledge as a death combo. Situational yes, but it does exist. I don't think you can up b before the Dair, but you can meteor cancel it of course so if you are fast then you shouldn't die. Falco can also D-throw to DAC. That's not escapable as far as I know. Just try not to get grabbed which isn't even that hard since you outrange him.
Marth has very similar grab combos on Falco. F-throw to F-throw to Dancing Blade will do good damage. So will F-throw to F-smash. Marth can also F-throw to F-throw to Dair on Falco and there is no way Falco can survive it since his up b is terrible. Sethlon has said that Falco can't DI out of , but D1 has said it's possible. I will say that at 0%, F-throw to Dair definitely isn't escapable, but two F-throws to Dair might be.
Falco has a really good roll so when he is pressured expect him to try to get away from you. Falco is mostly going to be playing an evasive game and try to frustrate you into making stupid mistakes. Don't be fooled. Keep your calm. He has the laser, yes that is true, but Marth is the one who is in control of this fight. Marth has better options then Falco overall. Falco will also try to use his phantasm to get away. Again, keep your cool. When you see him wind up for it be ready to shield it, roll back, or f-smash him. If you shield it then close the distance quickly to reset your spacing. If you rolled back you can probably punish him.
As far as gimping him goes it's all about conditioning. You have to get him into the habit of doing something so you can take advantage of it. If he has a habit of going for the stage with Phantasm then you need to punish him repeatedly for it. Once he starts going for the ledge due to being punished you can edgehug him on recovery for easy gimps. Then he will most likely stop going for the ledge and the process repeats itself.
An easy way to punish phantasm on recovery is to just shield about three or four character lengths away from the ledge. When he goes through you release your shield and punish. It's a very safe way to punish Falco without taking any real risk.
All in all after doing alot research on the match and playing the match from both sides Marth definitely has the advantage.
The question is how much of an advantage?
60/40 sounds right, but it could even be 65/35.
Also Falco may try to approach with Nairs when you are close but you can up b him after you block since he can't outspace your range with that move.
Falco may also try SH single lasers and omit the first high laser but the dash in strategy still applies.
Overall Falco rally has no reliable close range options on Marth. Anything he tries is either outspaced or unsafe. And if he goes for a grab he takes the risk of being hit since once again Marth has the range advantage. Basically if Falco gets a hit off with a move it's because Marth screwed up his spacing or Falco just read him correctly. If Marth plays smart it's heard for Falco to get in good damage and even harder to get kills. Falco also has standing lasers but Marth can eat those while walking forward and when Falco puts his gun away Marth can close in or punish if he is close enough.